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#1
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As Poland put it, why is the EU - a group of countries comprising 500 million people insisting that the US, a country of 330 million people, to defend them against Russia, a country with 133 million people and GDP smaller than Texas?
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#2
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Great analysis, Hapless.
Ukraine does not have the military power, even with generous Western aid, to retake most of its currently Russian-occupied territories. Should the Ukrainian gov't just throw in the towel, then? Framing it as a binary choice, war or peace, oversimplifies things. Zelensky is reasonable enough to sacrifice currently-occupied Ukrainian territory for an end to the bloodshed (but if he said so publicly, he'd have much less bargaining power at the negotiating table). However, a peace treaty that doesn't include security guarantees for Ukraine (with the USA and or NATO as guarantors), is worthless. The resulting "peace" would not be likely to last more than a couple of years, at most. Why? Because Russia will use the respite to retool and rebuild its military forces, then try again later. Just ask Chechnya. Putin's made it clear that he will not honor bilateral peace agreements with Ukraine. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give its nuclear weapons back to Russia in exchange for security assurances from Moscow. https://www.armscontrol.org/factshee...urances-glance Russia broke its promise twenty years later, when Russian troops invaded Crimea. Less than ten years after that, Russia invaded Ukraine (2022). Putin is a neo-imperialist. He's been very clear than he believes than many, if not all, former SSRs belong to Russia. He's also shown a willingness to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of his own people to violently take them back. Let's not forget that Putin started this war by his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Framing Zelensky as the war-monger is pure Russian propaganda. Therefore, it's not surprising that Zelensky insists that a negotiated peace settlement include robust security guarantees supported by the US/NATO. In the absence of said, Ukraine is willing to continue fighting. It's not an unreasonable or overly-sanguine position to take, given the circumstances and historical precedent. History has shown again and again that a phony peace is no peace at all. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#3
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To Raellus:
Then we need to produce weapons and raising armies. And another lessen: Dont give up your nuclear weapons. Never! But having nuclear weapons is not enough. You also need the willpower to use them. And frankly I dont see much willpower in Europe. A lot of hot air but nothing more. |
#4
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https://www.reuters.com/world/how-mu...ed-2025-03-04/ That said, I agree that Europe could be doing more. Are you suggesting that the US abdicate its role as "Leader of the Free World"? As a Cold War kid, it's hard for me to reconcile US Russia policy today with our foreign policy imperatives of 30 years ago. The USA has been the de facto leader of NATO since 1949, the "Indispensable Nation". For better or for worse, Western Europe has looked to the USA for leadership since 1942. For the most part, we relished that role. And now, during the worst diplomatic/military crisis to hit Europe since WW2, we leap out of the driver's seat because guaranteeing the peace and security of Europe is too expensive? Are the savings worth it? Do we really want to return to the isolationist foreign policy that the USA adhered to immediately following WWI? Anyone who's studied history knows how that turned out. It certainly didn't lead to peace. And what message will the USA turning its back on Ukraine send to our allies? What message does it send to Putin, to Xi, and to Kim? In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several European countries have indeed been increasing their defense spending over the past few years. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 03-04-2025 at 08:30 PM. |
#5
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The UK, France, Germany, Italy have all made token gestures. The UK isn't producing any new tanks, France isn't producing any new tanks, Germany alone can make, at best, 100-150 tanks PER YEAR - most of which are slated for foreign contracts, not German service. That's the entire old, non-US NATO capacity. 100-150 tanks per year. Turkey, Spain, and Greece all have as many Leopard 2's as Germany has (~350). Poland, when it's all said and done, will have 1,000 K2 Black Panther thanks compared to ~350 Leopard 2's for Germany. Europe has much the same problem the US has, but only so much worse. They de-industrialized, especially their military capacity, and scrapped most of the cold war material that they had. And what they didn't scrap - a lot of it has already been sent to Ukraine. So, increasing military spending from 1.5% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP isn't going to help a whole lot when there isn't sufficient capacity to build tanks, IFVs, artillery tubes, artillery shells, drones, explosives, ammunition, etc. The entire German army is down to 63,000 people. The UK Army 74,000. The French army 121,000. The Turkish army has close to 300,000, but you are lying to yourself if you think they are going to attack Russia to defend Ukraine. So the entire German, French, and UK armies have 1/2 the manpower a not-fully-mobilized Russia has on the Ukraine front. Surveys of Western European countries of how many people would fight to defend their country show numbers in the teen percentages. What do you think a European mobilization to fight in Ukraine is going to poll at? Meanwhile, the EU has thrown open it's borders and is enduring a migrant invasion. Ireland now sports a higher foreign born population percentage than the US has (and for the record, the US foreign born percentage is the highest it's ever been). Europe has become Turkey in reverse. The sick man. I'm not saying this to be mean or because I dislike Europe (I'm going there next week), but pointing out that Europe has lost it's capacity to fight, lost it's will to fight, and yet it's leaders are committing them to a fight they cannot win in defiance of all reality. And Europe still has not committed to the structural changes that will change any of that. |
#6
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You also have problems with spending priorities. For example the UK has significantly more admirals (33) than combat vessels (19).
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#7
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Here's an interesting piece from War Zone on lessons learned from the war in Ukraine: https://www.twz.com/news-features/na...war-in-ukraine -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#8
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Lesson 5: “We are woefully under-invested in our transatlantic defense industrial base to produce the capabilities we need at pace and at scale. Russia, with an economy 5% the size of NATO, produces in three months many critical munitions that it takes 32 allies an entire year to produce. I know I’m not making friends amongst the industry at this point, but something is very wrong here, and we must fix it.” Goffus expanded on that last lesson. The defense industrial base has “not been this important in a long time,” he explained, adding that the U.S. has to step up its capacity to produce weapons. Lithuania wants “to buy AMRAAMS for their NASAMS,” he stated. “Five-year wait. I talked to the Bulgarian CHOD [Chief of Defense]. They want to buy Javelins for their Strykers. Seven-year wait. I talked to some of the big allies who want to buy Patriots. 10-year wait. That needs to get fixed.” Which reinforces my point - both the US and Europe are not in a position to wage a protracted war, regardless of how much money they allocate to it, because the defense industrial base to spend the money is nonexistent. |
#9
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"Nine women can't make a baby in a month" |
#10
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2. Most military material has gone up alot in price. Like a leaopard 2 tank had gone up 600% in price in 20 years or so and is 7-8 years waiting list for deliviery. so increasing next year from 2 to 2.5% doesnt help at all as war material increase faster in prices. An small increase in % gdp to defence useally lead to less bang and soldiers or warmashines for the buck. |
#11
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__________________
Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#12
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#13
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German army struggles to get Gen Z recruits ‘ready for war’ https://www.ft.com/content/30594f17-...a-57cdf0176841 The fact that jumped out to me was Quote:
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