Yet another Alternative TW2K Timeline

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

However, I do not want this thread to disintegrate into a back and forth about the pros and cons of Islam. Can we just stick to ripping the shit out of the historical and political improbabilities of my timeline and gazetteer?


A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

I agree with you on that one and, as I said, I like several of you ideas also I came up with something entirely different while making the same critics. I also have to say that you come down hard on reformers in the communist world.

However, how is it possible that Georgia is on the way to independence as early as 1989? Shevarnadze is dead, Gorbi is dead and the red army is still fully in control. In addition, what about Zviad Gamsakhurdia? Merab Kostava was killed in a car accident on october 13th that year.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

I agree with you on that one and, as I said, I like several of you ideas also I came up with something entirely different while making the same critics. I also have to say that you come down hard on reformers in the communist world.

Well if the reformers don't get squashed by the hard-liners and Stalinists, then it makes getting to WWIII a bit harder.

Originally Posted by Mohoender

However, how is it possible that Georgia is on the way to independence as early as 1989? Shevarnadze is dead, Gorbi is dead and the red army is still fully in control. In addition, what about Zviad Gamsakhurdia? Merab Kostava was killed in a car accident on october 13th that year.

Well I do mention Zviad Gamsakhurdia as an ex-president of the republic who gets run out of office, turns guerilla, gets CIA support, but is eventually hunted down by Soviet security forces... a bit like what really happened.

I realize that I assassinated Shevarnadze along with Gorbachev in 1988, but I don't think that would stop the Georgian pro-independence movement from getting up and running. That motive was building in 1988: remember the massacre of protesters in Tsiblisi? But the hardline coup/assassination of Gorbachev catches them flat footed. Nevertheless, their independence movement is strong and it takes the USSR years to squash it back down.

One of the problems is that Georgia is very anti-Russian, very pro-independence. But if the USSR is going to invade Iran and fight a war in the middle east I'm going to need to keep Georgia in the USSR. I'm imagining that the USSR does so by fostering independence movements in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, so that if Georgia leaves the USSR, they will loose those territories. They end up staying in the USSR so as to keep the country intact, with the USSR deploying internal "peace keepers" to occupy the country. The same sort of thing happens in Nagorno-Kharabakh in Azerbaijian. The USSR uses the ethnic strife as an excuse to occupy both Armenia and Azerbaijian and keep them from seceeding.

Any other suggestions how the post-Gorbachev USSR might keep the Caucasian Republics in line? At least until the Twilight War?

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Marc]

First of all, I have not read the timeline but I hope to do it very soon. Only two small comments about the matter

Originally Posted by sglancy12

3) I was never convinced that NATO allies like Italy and Greece would first duck out of the war and then enthusiastically join in again on the side of the Warsaw Pact. I can see the Greeks getting into it with Turkey... after all, what are Greeks and Turks supposed to do except shoot each other? But Italy? I kept Italy on the side of NATO, where they would be bogged down fighting in the Balkans.

I totally agree that this is one of the weak points of the Twilight timeline. I've been working in Italy for months and while in Kosovo we were (I don't know if still they are) under Italian jurisdiction. I've been working and living together with soldiers from the Ariete Armored Brigade and the Garibaldi Bersaglieri Brigade. Our close languages make our communication easier and, my feeling is that , though Italy probably would not leave NATO in the beginning of the war depicted in the v2 Twilight timeline, it would be a political decision against a very reluctant population that would put the country in a very difficult situation. Riots and civil disobedience are probable. I cannot imagine Italy leaving NATO to avoid the war and then entering in the fight for an alliance (without precedents) with Greece.

About the gazeteer I've only have a quick look to it, searching for the references to Spain. The situation depicted seems very plausible. An evacuation from Ceuta and Melilla and a fighting withdrawal from these two enclaves are credible and, most probably, it is an old studied maneuver in the Spanish army high command. They are not military valuable. Canarias and the Balearic Islands are a total different matter and they will be defended for their strategic position. The coming together between Spain and France seems plausible, too. About the Basque country I think that sometimes the situation is enourmously exagerated for the foreigners. I think that If you want to create enough instability to force the Spanish army to send there "limited resources" (as stated in he gazeteer), a conscription could be the suitable trigger.

[RN7]

One thing I've always noticed about Islamic extremists is that Western countries and even Islamic countries tolerate them in a way that would not tolerate voilent nationalist movements or racial supremist, until they do something really bad like go out and massacre innocent people.

Another thing that strikes me about Islamic extremist is that their recruitment pool is pretty much at the bottom of the pile in whatever country they are found. In the Islamic world the recruits are usually sociopaths, criminals and gullible peasants. In Western countries they are generally unemployed misfits and petty criminals from ethnic backgrounds who have finally found a purpose in life, or Western converts who were unemployable social weirdos to start off with.

A final thing that strikes me about Islamic extermists is that they never stop talking about the injustices and evils inflicted on them by Western countries and Israel, but never talk or want to hear about the injustices and evils they have inflicted on non-Muslims for the past 1,500 years.

Maybe I'm being a bit harsh but I realy think Islamic extremists are pond life, and I have no time for Muslims who justify terrorism and elevate their religion above everyone elses.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Marc

First of all, I have not read the timeline but I hope to do it very soon.

Please remember that it is a mess and needs a great deal of work to adjust real world incidents to the TW2K timeline.

Originally Posted by Marc

Only two small comments about the matter

And at least they were both positive comments. I'm glad you generally approve.

Originally Posted by Marc

I totally agree that this is one of the weak points of the Twilight timeline. I've been working in Italy for months and while in Kosovo we were (I don't know if still they are) under Italian jurisdiction. I've been working and living together with soldiers from the Ariete Armored Brigade and the Garibaldi Bersaglieri Brigade. Our close languages make our communication easier and, my feeling is that , though Italy probably would not leave NATO in the beginning of the war depicted in the v2 Twilight timeline, it would be a political decision against a very reluctant population that would put the country in a very difficult situation. Riots and civil disobedience are probable. I cannot imagine Italy leaving NATO to avoid the war and then entering in the fight for an alliance (without precedents) with Greece.

Yes, but like anything involving the Italians, where there are five Italians there are likely to be ten opinions on any given subject. Italy would be torn by political strife at home, maybe even a resurgence in the Red Brigades with covert KGB assistance. Governments would fall, form and fall again, leaving the Italian military in a precarious position of not knowing when their orders are going to change on any give day.

Originally Posted by Marc

About the gazeteer I've only have a quick look to it, searching for the references to Spain. The situation depicted seems very plausible. An evacuation from Ceuta and Melilla and a fighting withdrawal from these two enclaves are credible and, most probably, it is an old studied maneuver in the Spanish army high command. They are not military valuable. Canarias and the Balearic Islands are a total different matter and they will be defended for their strategic position. The coming together between Spain and France seems plausible, too.

The Secretary General of NATO at the time (Javier Solana) was, and still is, very anti-NATO, seeing it as an extension of US power over European sovereignty. I can easily see Spain (and Portugal) quitting NATO under the TW2K scenario. Of course, if Portugal stays in NATO, their joint-use military bases could be subjected to Soviet nuke strikes and the resulting chaos could land Spain with a massive refugee problem, plus a fair bit of fallout. Who needs to get nuked if your country is over-run by starving refugees from next door.

So, big question back to you, as a resident of the Iberian Peninsula, would Portugal (in the mid-1990s, not now) stayed in NATO or withdrawn? Under a goon like Salazar they would have stayed in, but I'm not familiar with Portugal's politics in the 1990s. They, like Spain, have everything to lose and nothing to gain by joining the conflict. At least in the short term. Granted, it would suck to have the Iron Curtain roll all the way forward to the Rhine for the next 50 years, but I just can't see the Red Army (in TW2K) rolling through Portugal and Spain.

The only places on the Iberian peninsula I imagine getting nuked are Gibraltar and any NATO bases still in use. Of course, I'm imagining the Spanish taking a very hard line neutral position on the war, perhaps totally withdrawing from NATO and forcing a withdraw from the airbases, because they can afford to. The USSR isn't going to get to them even if they win. France will prevent that. So Spain can afford to try and avoid getting nuked in the crossfire. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose by joining in the Twilight War.

Originally Posted by Marc

About the Basque country I think that sometimes the situation is enourmously exagerated for the foreigners. I think that If you want to create enough instability to force the Spanish army to send there "limited resources" (as stated in he gazeteer), a conscription could be the suitable trigger.

I agree that the Basques would definitely resist a move to have forced conscription. And forced conscription would definitely be happening as the government tried to keep order (with the lights going off due to energy shortages), distribute food, and keep the country from being over-run by refugees.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by RN7

One thing I've always noticed about Islamic extremists . . .

Woah! Stop! Hold on! Back up!

Please, I don't want this thread to derail into a back and forth about how justified or unjustified Islamic extremists are in their positions. My views are pretty harsh and unforgiving on the subject matter, and they'll probably come out as you read the timeline and the gazetteer, but please keep the comments confined to the documents.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by RN7

Another thing that strikes me about Islamic extremist is that their recruitment pool is pretty much at the bottom of the pile in whatever country they are found. In the Islamic world the recruits are usually sociopaths, criminals and gullible peasants. In Western countries they are generally unemployed misfits and petty criminals from ethnic backgrounds who have finally found a purpose in life, or Western converts who were unemployable social weirdos to start off with.

So basically, in both cases terrorists are recruiting from the same pool. It just looks different because of the difference in cultures. In the West (especially in the US), most people have a different opinion of such wackos -- we laugh at them and make fun at them, to the point that most of them don't want to show their faces or admit they are a part of such an organization. In the Middle East and Southern Asia, terrorists have demonstrated that they are a lot more dangerous, and the locals are afraid of them, to the point that even a $25 million reward can't get anyone to turn Osama Bin Ladin in.

[RN7]

So basically, in both cases terrorists are recruiting from the same pool. It just looks different because of the difference in cultures. In the West (especially in the US), most people have a different opinion of such wackos -- we laugh at them and make fun at them, to the point that most of them don't want to show their faces or admit they are a part of such an organization. In the Middle East and Southern Asia, terrorists have demonstrated that they are a lot more dangerous, and the locals are afraid of them, to the point that even a $25 million reward can't get anyone to turn Osama Bin Ladin in.

Unfortunately or fortunately the grass roots have similar backgrounds no matter what culture they come from, they are usually as dumb as a box of rocks but are still voilent and dangerous. In Europe extremist are actually quite vocal and a lot of left wing and trendy people will listen to them and even sympathise with them. Recently in Britain airmen were ordered not to wear their uniforms in Luton because of the trouble it would attract from some Islamic nutters on the streets at night. Naturally enough the Queen was a bit upset that her soldiers were made to feel ashamed in their uniforms in their own country and the government gave them permission to wear their uniforms outside of their base. Could you imagine that happening in America?

[ChalkLine]

At this point Kato would shift the conversation to a new thread. Shall we do that rather than derailing sglancy12's thread? It only seems polite.

[Marc]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

So, big question back to you, as a resident of the Iberian Peninsula, would Portugal (in the mid-1990s, not now) stayed in NATO or withdrawn? Under a goon like Salazar they would have stayed in, but I'm not familiar with Portugal's politics in the 1990s. They, like Spain, have everything to lose and nothing to gain by joining the conflict. At least in the short term. Granted, it would suck to have the Iron Curtain roll all the way forward to the Rhine for the next 50 years, but I just can't see the Red Army (in TW2K) rolling through Portugal and Spain.

Bon dia!

Sadly, I must recognize my nearly total ignorance about Portugal and the Portugueses. I suppose that my situation at the opposite site of the Iberian Peninsula (I live near Barcelona) is one of the causes of this ignorance. In Catalonia, more commonly we tend to travel across our northern frontier towards France, Central Europe or Mediterranean Europe. Now, thinking about it, we received very few news from our discreet neighbors of the East, especially when compared with the quantity of news and information from the rest of Europe. So, my lack of knowledge about Portugal prevents me to make any well-based supposition about their attitude towards NATO in case of a Twilight-style war.

Other regions of Spain (among others Extremadura or Galicia) have very strong ties with Portugal. If Spain retreated from NATO and with the situation depicted in the gazetteer (retreat from Ceuta and Melilla, pirate incursions in the Mediterranean coast, etc.), I think that Spanish government would try to accept Portuguese refugees. If not, probably the government would have to do it after discovery that Spanish citizens have been accepting them before any official declaration. The situation would be bad but not desperate, especially if we had not try to keep the impossible to defend Ceuta and Melilla, and the pressure to help the Portuguese civilians would be strong.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Marc

Other regions of Spain (among others Extremadura or Galicia) have very strong ties with Portugal. If Spain retreated from NATO and with the situation depicted in the gazetteer (retreat from Ceuta and Melilla, pirate incursions in the Mediterranean coast, etc.), I think that Spanish government would try to accept Portuguese refugees. If not, probably the government would have to do it after discovery that Spanish citizens have been accepting them before any official declaration. The situation would be bad but not desperate, especially if we had not try to keep the impossible to defend Ceuta and Melilla, and the pressure to help the Portuguese civilians would be strong.

That seems reasonable. I'm not sure how badly Portugal would be hit, even if they did stay in NATO, so I'm not sure how many refugees there would be leaving Portugal for Spain. Of course, since Brazil isn't hit in my scenario, maybe Brazil shows up to offer aid to Portugal... even offering to take in refugees. This could cause big problems at home in Brazil where taking in Portugese refugees might be seen as giving aid to "whites" while the "blacks" in the Brazilian slums are suffering. I'm not sure what Brazil's race relations are like, but they didn't dump slavery until the 1870s and there is definitely a color line in the country. Still, it would be an interesting turn of events to have the home country getting aid from the former colony.

Does Spain still have a "Foreign Legion?" Once upon a time there was such a formation, much like France's colonial military. If Spain is overrun by Portuguese refugees, one way to ensure your family stays fed and sheltered by the Spanish (or French) government would be to sign up for military service. I'm sure both countries would rather burn up foreigners than natives keeping the Muslim pirates and Jihadists away from their borders.

Undoubtedly there will be a few over-anxious North African wack jobs who think that now is the time to reconquer Spain and declare the Caliphate of Al-Andalus. I'm not expecting Morroccan tank brigades rolling through the Spanish hills, but bands of fanatics armed with AKs would be showing up confident that Allah will grant them victory and their faith will armor them against the infidels' bullets.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Marc]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

Does Spain still have a "Foreign Legion?" Once upon a time there was such a formation, much like France's colonial military. If Spain is overrun by Portuguese refugees, one way to ensure your family stays fed and sheltered by the Spanish (or French) government would be to sign up for military service. I'm sure both countries would rather burn up foreigners than natives keeping the Muslim pirates and Jihadists away from their borders.
A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

Here you have a link to a previous post about the Spanish Legion

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=872

Surely the Spanish Legion would be one of the Brigade-Sized units implied in the withdrawal from Ceuta and Melilla, together with the 52nd Melilla Regular Infantry Regiment and the 54th Ceuta Regular Infantry Regiment. The three units have their origins in the colonial wars in the former Spanish Protectorate of Morocco. The "Regulars" were originally formed by native troops but in the present day their personnel are mainly Spanish.

[Marc]

Given the situation a reactivation of the policy to incorporate foreign citizens in the army is possible. Also, you make me think that, with a growing distrust against our own Muslim citizens, a lot of them could try to join the army to try to probe their fidelity to the country where they live now as a way to avoid problems to their families.

A lot of nasty situations could be expected regarding to the relationship between former Spanish citizens and those who have born in North Africa.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

So, big question back to you, as a resident of the Iberian Peninsula, would Portugal (in the mid-1990s, not now) stayed in NATO or withdrawn? Under a goon like Salazar they would have stayed in, but I'm not familiar with Portugal's politics in the 1990s. They, like Spain, have everything to lose and nothing to gain by joining the conflict. At least in the short term. Granted, it would suck to have the Iron Curtain roll all the way forward to the Rhine for the next 50 years, but I just can't see the Red Army (in TW2K) rolling through Portugal and Spain.

I think, I'll be the one to answer that question as I spent plenty of time in Portugal from 1986-2002 (my mother living there). Also I happen to meet most of the army head officers in 1995 (including the Portuguese chief of staff).

First of all, IMO, Portugal will definitely remain within NATO and that will be for a very simple reason. That country was always faithfull to its ally and the Portuguese are very proud of that.

Portugal would not benefit much for it, I agree, but they have a very important position for the alliance. NATO ship are more than able to operate from Portugal and patrol most of of the western central Atlantic. However, their army would not represent a great addition but they have some experience abroad that have been lost by everyone else (especially in Africa and Jungle' regions).

Portugal is remote enough to escape most bombing except for Lisbon and Porto. Lisbon would certainly be entirely whiped out but that is not as sure for Porto. The northern half of the city would be destroyed but the southern half will certainly survive.

Internally, Portugal would be more stable than Spain. Algarve and Parts of the South would be mostly insular with each fortifed city/town/village living on itself. A strong pro-soviet movement would plague Alentejo, the surroundings of Lisbon and part of the central area. The coast would be cantonment with military garrison in every coastal fort (at the time they were still owned by the army). Lisbon itself would be full chaos as a small area north of Porto. I'm not entirely sure for central Portugal but it might be partly organised around the university town of Coimbra. At last, the northern area (north of the Douro river and including what is left of Porto), would remain organized and faithfull to NATO (fully anti-communist). In addition, this last region might include what was Spanish Galicia.

The Portuguese army would lack a great number of modern weapon but firearms are more than common with a few private people still owning artillery pieces. One of my mother's neighbour was living on a hill top with his house defended by Bofors 40mm gun and Machineguns. Up to the early 1990's most rich portuguese were still travelling with weapons at their side (an effect of the 1974-75 revolution).

[Marc]

Bon dia Mo!

I was waiting for your opinion about Portugal, given your background. It's strange (and sad) to verify my ignorance about Portugal, given our geographical position.

I only will add two points from my personal point of view:

-The opinion about the Portuguese paratroopers in the Spanish Parachute Brigade is high. They were also under Italian jurisdiction in Kosovo and, though our relationship was more frequent with the Italians, we considered the Portugueses much more "reliable".

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Marc

A lot of nasty situations could be expected regarding to the relationship between former Spanish citizens and those who have born in North Africa.

As North Africa melts down, particularly Algeria and Egypt, the Mediterranean is going to be overwhelmed by a combination of "boat people" and pirates, the aquatic version of refugees and marauders. The Mediterranean is going to look a lot like it did during early middle ages, where Saracen pirates did what the Vikings did to the Baltic and Northern Europe.

Even where the refugees don't turn to raiding, people in un-nuked countries like France are going to get nervous about too many people "swamping" the lifeboat. Then things are going to get ugly and racist. France after the Twilight War is likely to look a lot like the UK did in the movie Children on Men. Refugees would be regularly rounded up and placed in internment camps... unless they have a specific skill set the state needs.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[sglancy12]

... and based on what you fellas have said, I'm thinking that in my alternative TW2K timeline Portugal will hang tough with NATO and be rewarded by having their joint use naval and air bases nuked. A half-dozen strikes and Portugal would be seriously fucked.

Which isn't to say that Spain wouldn't be seriously fucked too what with the world economy and world trade wrecked, the importation of fossil fuels derailed, their next door neighbors nuked, and refugees are stressing the resources that remain in Spain. But unlike Portugal, there weren't any direct nuke strikes, no serious fallout, no out of control fires in urban centers and all the other consequences of 100-500Kton airbursts.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Marc

It's strange (and sad) to verify my ignorance about Portugal, given our geographical position.

That must come from History matters As you are Catalan you aren't very much concerned by these but Portuguese and Spanish are much like Irish and English.

Originally Posted by Marc

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

I definitely agree and assume than Spain is much as it is described in canon: "Its central government is a shamble, now represented by roving bands of Guardia Civil and military units."

I don't buy that statement entirely for Portugal for several reasons:
- GNR are not Guardia Civil but they are closer to the french Gendarmerie.
- Each portuguese regiment was (and somehow remain) attached to its garrison city. In case of chaos, Portuguese units in Porto would be faithful to that city and the surrounding areas. It would be similar for every city: Braga, Coimbra, Evora...

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets). Several regiments were stationed in Porto but the nuking of the refinery would also wipe out most of the industrial port. What facility would remain are unable to accomodate anything bigger than an Aviso or a small Frigate. There is no true air base in Porto and if the airport was run partly by the air force (G-91R were stationed there), its facilities will never make it a primary target. The base was never opened to F-16s and is now closed.
It has one of the shortest airway of Europe and only very well trained pilots can land there. In fact, qualification must be the same than that for Madeira and the old Hong Kong airport. It also has the simplest radar equipments and it is closed one third of the time. Each time you have fog on it, the airport is closed (1 day out of 3) as it is not equipped with the proper tools.

Other strategic bases do exist indeed but they are all in the south and mostly around Lisbon. Sintra would definitely be a target (you'll find the peacetime portuguese HQ there). Montijo could also be targeted as it is the main transport base but again it is only a few miles away from Lisbon. Sad, I would not be able to go there and watch corridas any more (they are the most beautiful).

The last two targets would be Monte Real (on the coast halfway between Lisbon and Porto) and Beja. For Beja I don't believe it would be nuked because it is right in the middle of the communist region of Alentejo. It would, however, be the center of heavy fighting between military and guerrilas.

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunitions (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets).

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree with your assessments about Porto and Lisbon. Porto's facilities sound like they would all be wound up by a mid-range nuke: the port, the refinery and the airport would all be severely damaged by a single airburst. And Lisbon's got so many facilities in the area that it sounds like one MIRV dropping four or five 100K weapons over the area would pretty wipe out the NATO facilities and the central government's command and control.

I do have some more questions for you:

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships? Is it just a port or is there a naval base?

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases?

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja? Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub?), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke?

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Originally Posted by Mohoender

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunition (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree and that's why I only list one target in the North. There is of course a few Dams on the Douro river but nothing to justify a nuke.

The main differences between Porto and Lisbon lay in the cities layout.
- Lisbon is located on the Tage river and it is wide open. It is also a fairly flat area with a few low hills. If hit by a MIRV nothing will stop the blast. All facilities are located both on the Atlantic and on the Tage which is very large.
- Porto is on the Douro river and the region is not as flat. The refinery and the modern harbour are located to the north and, if the refinery is hit, the modern harbour will be destroyed as well. The modern quarters and the upper parts of the city will also see extensive damages while the modern building on thesouthern bank will suffer some damage as well. As I expect only a limited strike on the city, I count that the old city will be relatively shielded as it is located on both side of the river, at the bottom of two high cliffs. Even the eiffel bridge could survive. The airport, however (on the south bank), will survive and will certainly be turned into the main base for what survive of the airforce. The only other airport of some importance being at Villa Real and Braga.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships? Is it just a port or is there a naval base?

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases?

At Porto you'll find nothing more than a few patrol ship (mainly police and custom). The main naval base is and always was at Lisbon. If the modern harbour at Porto survive, it could be of use but I doubt it does.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja? Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub?), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke?

Monte Real is the fighter base while Beja is the training and naval patrol base. For Montijo, it is the main airlift base.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Today you would be right but at the time of T2K it would be an entirely different matter. I would have expected these guys to retain several weapon caches. In addition, they are far from being simple leftist and they are true diehard communist in the old meaning. Don't forget that they took over the Portuguese revolution only 20 years before and they had very strong ties with Moscow. They were only countered by the return of Mario Suarez. At last, all the archives of Salazar's regime have disapeared and they are strong rumors that they have been transfered to Moscow. I agree with you on what they would establish over the South.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

You presume in the wrong way. Portugal's population is about 10 million with the most populated area being Lisbon and its surrounding targets (3.5 Million). These will almost be entirely gone (at least 75% casualties) with 80% of the country's industrial capacity.

The second most populated area is Porto with roughly 2 Million. There, you can expect a good 1 million casualty with more damage to the industrial network. However, the wine business at Villa Nova de Gaia will be turned to energy production and the Douro river can be used as a good bloodline. Hard road communication will not be a problem for those living there. In 1986 you needed 4h to go from Porto to the wine producing region only 80 miles away. In 1995 that time was down to 2h30. Most vehicles will be donkeys, mules, old Mercedes, Bedford and Toyotas. You can even expect the train to be still running between Porto and the Alto Douro.

What I count as being the Northern region is composed of 6 districts (Aveiro, Braga, Bragança, Viana de Castello, Villa Real and Viseu) plus that of Porto. Outside Porto they represent 2.5 million people with the most fertile area. In fact the only region of Portugal that can sustain itself in term of food and water.

What remain of the country would, then, represent only 2 million people with the South being the least populated. As a result, the districts bearing the weight of refugees would be more these at the center (Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Guarda, Portalegre and Santarem).

A last thing will make a difference. The regions I counted in the north are considered to be the heart of Portugal and Braga is it's capital city by heart (the Portuguese reconquesta started from there, from Villa Real and Lamego). People living there are tough by our standards (even more so at the time of T2K) as many were used to live with limited electricity and water. In addition, they don't like people from the South and I have no doubt that they would not hesitate to turn them back at gun point. During the revolution, communists took over most of the country but they were never able to achieve much control over the North.

The North represents 40% of the pre-war population and it would get 60-70% of the post strike survivors.

[Kellhound]

Originally Posted by sglancy12

The only places on the Iberian peninsula I imagine getting nuked are Gibraltar and any NATO bases still in use. Of course, I'm imagining the Spanish taking a very hard line neutral position on the war, perhaps totally withdrawing from NATO and forcing a withdraw from the airbases, because they can afford to.

Some soviet documents declassified in the 90's showed we had a few "secondary targets" in our country. From naval and air bases to civilian airports and harbors, to refineries (Tarragona was higher than some bigger ones in other European countries, since it had also a harbor and other chemical plants close by) and shipyards (Galicia).
Even in case of extreme neutrality, only a couple small tac-nukes are needed to avoid these resources to fall in enemy hands.

Originally Posted by sglancy12

I agree that the Basques would definitely resist a move to have forced conscription.

In this country, most cases of forced conscription have ended in open riots and street battles, and armed forces taking the streets.

Originally Posted by Marc

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

Knowing them, it's more likely to have Portugal joining Galicia
Ok, this is only half a joke, not suitable for, or understandable by foreigners.

Originally Posted by Mohoender

I definitely agree and assume than Spain is much as it is described in canon: "Its central government is a shamble, now represented by roving bands of Guardia Civil and military units."

I agree mostly with this.
But only until a foreign soldier (any foreign soldier) tried to occupy any ground or impose it's language and strange customs.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Kellhound

I agree mostly with this.
But only until a foreign soldier (any foreign soldier) tried to occupy any ground or impose it's language and strange customs.

At least you know that the foreign soldier won't be french. We had enough when Napoleon tried.