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#31
02-06-2010, 01:48 AM
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I feel it needs to be stressed once again it appears Germany went it alone in both V1.0 and 2.0 timelines. There's even references of other member states debating if they should be involved or not.
The main difference between the timelines (regarding the commencement of the European hostilities) is in V1.0 Germany moved on the 7th of October, while in 2.0 they moved much earlier on the 27th of July. In both timelines, the very first elements from mainland US did not even board aircraft until the 21st of October 1996. The British moved earlier, with the first units arriving (probably by ship, making use of the channel ro-ro ferries) on the 14th of October. The channel tunnel could also have been used, but once France decided not to join in, this becomes very unlikely. No non-German unit breached Pact borders until the 2nd of December, nearly 2 months after the Germans in V1.0 and 4 1/2 months in 2.0. During this flurry of activity with everyone concentrating on getting combat units into the country, equiped from pre-positioned stores and organised ready for combat, who was left to co-ordinate civilian evacuation? I believe this situation is exactly what Paul was refering to - the priority was, and should be, getting troops into battle, not clearing out civilians. This is not to say people wouldn't try to get out on their own, but aren't there travel restrictions placed on civilians in this event so they don't clog up the roadways and hamper military deployment?
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem Last edited by Legbreaker; 02-06-2010 at 02:03 AM. 
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#32
02-06-2010, 03:19 AM
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http://www.dtic.mil/srch/doc?collection=t3&id=ADA217529 Shame there is no PDF available however the Abstract does discuss evacuations "prior to and after the start of a conventional war with the Soviet Union" (emphases added) I was thinking of a parallel situation. Say tomorrow South Korea attacked the North without US approval. Even if US forces were not involved in any way do you think the Department of State (a purely civilian organization) would order an evacuation of Non Combatants. I think the order would be signed before any ROK forces made it 10km deep. From my perspective any commander who has any sort of long term view would want to get civilians out of the way as soon as the authorization came down. From a CYA (cover your ass) and Logistical perspective, if a commander had a choice, why wouldn't he want to remove a resource drag which does not enhance his combat strength at all. If empty trucks are going back towards an airfield with planes that have empty seats, I would make sure those seats were filled. Last edited by kato13; 02-06-2010 at 03:57 AM.
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#33
02-06-2010, 05:32 AM
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That's definately an interesting document. Would love to read it.
I think we all agree that removing civilians is high on the list of preferences - I'm just worried about who's going to be running that show as 99% of everyones attention is likely to be focused firmly on the enemy. I'm not saying it isn't doable, just difficult (which is probably why that document even exists).
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#34
02-06-2010, 05:42 AM
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__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#35
02-06-2010, 05:51 AM
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__________________
If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#36
02-06-2010, 05:58 AM
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Personally, I think that once British and US reinforcements start arriving in West Germany in October 1996 that would trigger the evacuation of military dependents as a matter of high priority. Quite apart from anything else I'd expect that it would be a major morale boost for the troops based in Germany to know that their families were (relatively speaking) out of danger.
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#37
02-06-2010, 06:02 AM
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__________________
 "It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
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#38
02-06-2010, 12:21 PM
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I know the U.S. tends to do everything possible to remove dependants from areas when threats rise.
Usualy it is a warning from the state department, then it is restricted period. Then they send in ships and aircraft to remove them. We did it with Kuwait and Iraq in 90/91 and we did it in Beruit/Lebanon in what, 08? Where the folks were at the airport but couldn't get out, so they sent in the navy and Marines to helo them to ships where they were taken to another destination where they could get out. As for personel, yes the military does have personel assigned for such a task. Some are key civilians who would not be evacuated or be one of the last to go. I recently applied for such a position oversees where that was part of the duties, to coordinate with the dependants and the comand. Lets not forget that bases have the base personel and what we call "tenants" The base personel are assigned to the base, these are your cooks for the main mess hall, the MPs assigened to the base, the electricians and construction personel who conduct daily maintenance, the com. and weather and MWR personel, initialy all of these folks would remain at their base since they would not belong to the units going into action. And it would be these personel and the <civilian position> dependant readiness coordinator and his military oposite number an adjudant on the base comanders staff most likely who would coordinate this with the logistics side of the house at whatever port of entry/exit they would be using. At which time they would contact the base motorpool or contract with a civilian entity for transportation, a special train, a convoy of buses either military or a civilian bus line and they would be shuttled to the airport or seaport or train station where they would be embarked. Civilians not in the DOD would be dealing with the state Department and embassy/consul, they would be given warnings, have to register, have communication assets to the point of a daily check in. And if the call comes they go or they may have part of the Marine Det come and get them, or they will be left on their own. At which point they would be evacuated with other personel, either civilians, or even with the embassy staff via some of the methods already discussed. Usualy this will occur before things get to nasty, we have been kinda sensitive since Iran. And alot of our embassys now are what we call "turn key" meaning they are open and closed like a regular buisness and no staff remain on the grounds other than local guards. Other citizens who are not part of DOD, would most likely be left in the hands of the State Dept and the Red Cross and a few attempts would be made to extricate them, either meet at Airfeild X and a C-130 or Helos will pick you and everyone else up, or to the city Y and a ship will pick you up and again take you to a safe place. Others will be instructed to go to the train station and go to the nearest nuetral country where they will then make their way home. And some will be told "YOU WERE WARNED! YOU DID NOT LISTEN! !!! GOOD LUCK! YOUR ON YOUR OWN!" 
__________________
"God bless America, the land of the free, but only so long as it remains the home of the brave."
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#39
02-06-2010, 04:07 PM
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Okay in the v2 the war was between Germany and Poland. v1 was more of unification of Germany at which the 'Unified/West' German Command attacked the Soviet units in East Germany, with the East German military units either attacking under the West German Command or they simply stayed in barracks waiting....
Besides that yes NATO troop didn't help Germany until they asked for help due to the fact that all NATO allies agreed that Germans had initiated the conflict in both versions. Thus why many of the allies refused and left NATO when the US, UK and Canadian troop came to the Germany aid. Yes, once troop were brought in from the US, at the very least military dependents who were in Germany and elsewhere would be evacuated. As for airspace over Germany in v1. Regardless who started the shooting and what not. Once Pact Air Force units cross the IGB allied ADA and Air Force units would have the right to protect themselves. They also at the time once a Pact aircraft crossed into West Germany would have to do to the best of their ability for nothing else to ensure their assets don't take damage due to being in the wrong place at the wrong time. One has to remember during the cold war there were several cases, "classified" in which aircraft would crash with in varied regularity on both side of the IGB of Germany and the DMZ of Korea. All of them had equipment malfunctions, which was induced after pilots were play chicken with their opposing number and someone told a pilot to blink.... Or result of one or the other side pilot wonder over the border by accident... The Soviet Air Force would be hitting West German Air Bases hard core. At the time Soviet and Pact units wouldn't care who brought down their aircraft over West Germany. They could live with the fact that some were lost to allied units, as long as the allies didn't actively take part in military operation in East Germany. Much like during Korea War and Vietnam war in which the Soviets had lost pilots. In many cases, the West knew that many of the aircrafts that they down were piloted by Soviets, but over looked the issue so as not invoke things. The Germans at war with the Soviet and Pact forces, I don't see what would stop them from intentionally targeting some allied units. We all know there is always some avoidable collateral damage that will take place. The Soviets and Pact would make the claim it happens in hopes that allies stay out of the fighting, and with US and UK sending reinforcement to Europe, they would to send a message not to get too involved. Simply by sending troops to Europe during this time could be considered an act of war or at least showing intention that you will be a bystander for too much longer... Like I state the NATO allies in West Germany would be mix response. Some would be willing spectators who after they had units who been unintentional hit by the Pact Forces who would become more proactive. While other wouldn't wait, their commanders would be willing to ensure they weren't harmed.
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#40
12-21-2010, 03:05 PM
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NATO obligations
One point concerning the NATO obligations would be the Soviet invasion of Norway -- if it did occur in November (I think I read that in this thread), prior to the US, UK, etc ... entry into East Germany, wouldn't NATO as a whole be obligated to attack the USSR (Norway being a member of NATO). France was still in NATO at the time, correct?
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#41
12-21-2010, 04:52 PM
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I'm not 100% sure on V1.0 but 2.x has Germany moving eastwards months before the Soviets entered Norway, months before they even entered the war in a signicant way actually (only three Soviet Divisions plus air units were in Poland this early on). The Pact forces as a whole were outnumbered and outmatched up until the Czechs entered the fray in support of Poland.
Essentially, the European war commenced with Germany as the agressors. NATO entry into the hostilities was therefore by no means certain and it is my belief that this one fact explains most of the reasons France (and others) withdrew from the organisation. Edit: See post #31 this thread for more detail on timings.
__________________
If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#42
12-21-2010, 08:08 PM
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In our campaign, US and British dependents were sent home as soon as they where put on alert when the Sino-Soviet War started. And once the alert was lowered, they were returned back to their homes in West Germany. Thus when the West Germans went into the DDR to support their cousins declaration that they were leaving the Warsaw Pact from any attempts by the Soviets to pull another Black Winter, or the other half-dozen other anti-soviet uprisings over the past 60 years they was not as big of a move to evacutation of the the dependents... namely because it was felt that the Soviets would take the hint and not try for a two front war...
But as we all know that was a HUGE mistake. The Soviets were not about to allow the DDR (or any of the other Warsaw Pact states for that matter) to go willingly. That they NEEDED the E.Germans as part of their little party. Not only because of the strategic position of being right in the centre of Europe... but they FEARED a unified German state being strong enough to fight them (and they still are for that matter). In our campaign the dependents were shifted around and gotten out of the theater on any available plane or boat that was heading back to the US, and when they couldn't be evacuated back to the States they were evacuated to the UK and to a neutral states such as Ireland. From there they would be placed on transports flying the flags of the various neutral powers to get back to the USA. Of course this didnt really work out the way they had it planned... and the reason why in my version of 2300ad the British Army has the Royal American Rifles and Royal German Legion as to semi-independent corps fighting for them... but that is a story for another time.
__________________
Fuck being a hero. Do you know what you get for being a hero? Nothing! You get shot at. You get a little pat on the back, blah blah blah, attaboy! You get divorced... Your wife can't remember your last name, your kids don't want to talk to you... You get to eat a lot of meals by yourself. Trust me kid, nobody wants to be that guy. I do this because there is nobody else to do it right now. Believe me if there was somebody else to do it, I would let them do it. There's not, so I'm doing it.
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#43
12-22-2010, 03:32 AM
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__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#44
12-22-2010, 07:23 AM
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I think that as long as the fighting was restricted to Germany and Poland, there's certainly good excuses for the other NATO nations to sit it out. The moment another NATO member's border was crossed by PACT forces, then the alliances all kick in.
While France certainly had reason to stay out of the German part of the battlefield, they possibly should have done something about the invasion of Norway. Mind you, I think they'd already pulled out of NATO by the time the Soviets launched their northern offensive...
__________________
If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#45
12-22-2010, 09:30 AM
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Leg, I agree that under the NATO philosophy that an attack on one is an attack on all, the French (and the Belgians, Italians, Spanish, Portugese, etc etc) should all have responded to the attack on Norway .
However, my thinking is that in the world of realpolitik the West German invasion of the East gave those Governments that wanted to shirk their responsibilities an excuse to do so (a weak excuse in my opinion, but an excuse nonetheless). I'm not sure when the French pulled out...I think I remember a quote somewhere (most likely the v1 ref's manual) that says some countries remain in NATO around the end of 96 / start of 97 but have not taken part in the War, but it's been a while since I read that book, so I might be wrong and in any event I don't think it specifically referred to the French.
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#46
12-22-2010, 11:00 AM
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Yes I don't believe that they all left after West Germany entered East Germany. Many of these if they were still in NATO when Sweden was invaded, I would like to point out that in many cases, it fell on the UK and the US to provide the major reinforcements into Sweden. Many of the countries mentioned were only to give token reinforcement to Sweden while the bulk of their units were designated to go elsewhere during a war with the Soviet Union.
In fact, with Spanish and Portugal, I never really knew where they were suppose to reinforce. Italy it seems would be tossed up with troops going to Germany, Greece, and Italy. While France and Belgium would send most troops to Germany since that is where the threat to them would come from. Yet as state once West Germany crossed into East Germany, many of the allies could this as reason why they weren't responding to the Soviet attack on Sweden until they had officially withdrew from the NATO. Belgium would be caught in tricky situation in that NATO HQs are based there and some of the US POMUS sites are in their country. While Denmark and other who remained in the Alliance, but not partaking of the war as active members. These members were more worried about the Soviets attacking them directly, or through Germany than they were worried about the helping out Sweden even though they they had token units that would head there. Denmark had been known to be a target of Soviet Front that included Polish Marine Division that would make run through Northern West Germany as well as making amphibious landings into Denmark.
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#47
12-22-2010, 04:56 PM
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Denmark was actively involved in the war with units both in Germany/Poland and the Scandinavian Peninsula.
__________________
If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#48
12-22-2010, 05:34 PM
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#49
12-22-2010, 07:39 PM
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__________________
My Twilight claim to fame: I ran "Allegheny Uprising" at Allegheny College, spring of 1988.
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#50
12-22-2010, 07:53 PM
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We had always played Belgium as being forced into the French Union when the French Army Invaded the, then Neutral Belgium, after alot of French propaganda got the French Walloons supporting the occupation of the West Bank of the Rhine.
It wasn't until the French turned the East Bank into a no-mans land (including Netherlands) that the Flemish and some of the Walloons started to go "oh Shit"... Hell, our campaign had the creation of Flanders post-Twilight War because the French Union launched a major attack on Bremerhaven to keep the Germans from getting all the hardware that the US was giving them and the British in exchange for the ships to get the US Forces out of Europe. The combined forces turned and fought off the French-led force and didn't stop until they were in to pre-war French Soil so that the remaining dependents could get out of the way. Flanders, Netherlands and the West Bank of the Rhine were no longer part of the French union. Hell, when our campaign ended the governments were negotiations on the formerly occupied Grand Duchy of Luxembourg getting Alsace-Lorraine as reparations for their treatment during French Occupation so they could become a neutral buffer state between France and Germany. But back on topic... The Evac of the Dependents would have been in stages, especially after the 'false start' of the Sino-Soviet War that had them do the major evacuation of dependents and only to see them returned a few weeks later when the expected offense in Europe didn't happen. Some officers and senior NCOs might have sent their families back to the States when the West Germans went into East Germany to 'evict' the Soviets from the DDR. Espeically if they had the brains to know, 'This is not going to end well'... Hell, this would have put a lot of people into wanting to send their families home on what ever transport they could get on board. Thus the statement that the planes and ships that had brought men & materials over would have been loaded up with who ever wanted to get out of the possible combat zone. And with the fighting going on, i can see far-sighted general & flag officers agreeing to that. When those transports were starting to get attacked, the commanders would have turned them to neutral areas that would hopefully not come under attack. It's why we had in our campaign alot of dependents evaced to Ireland. but we also had alot of people who got stuck in the rear areas...
__________________
Fuck being a hero. Do you know what you get for being a hero? Nothing! You get shot at. You get a little pat on the back, blah blah blah, attaboy! You get divorced... Your wife can't remember your last name, your kids don't want to talk to you... You get to eat a lot of meals by yourself. Trust me kid, nobody wants to be that guy. I do this because there is nobody else to do it right now. Believe me if there was somebody else to do it, I would let them do it. There's not, so I'm doing it.
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#51
12-22-2010, 08:07 PM
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#52
12-22-2010, 09:55 PM
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It seems to me that the run up to the war would be slow enough for US, British, and Canadian (and I guess French, in some cases), as well as embassy personnel dependents, to get them out of their posted countries in time. The sole exception may be Poland and Berlin.
That's assuming that the DIA, ISA, CIA, and State Department are properly on their toes (or whatever agencies are the equivalents in other countries). As for European dependents, they'll probably draw back to whatever countries they are from, unless they have no choice (such as Germany and Poland). I did once play an NPC as a GM who had been in Poland at the time of invasion and had been there ever since. Kind of interesting drawing up a 15-year old girl who had to learn on the fly, and who clearly didn't look like a local (her parents were of Asian ancestry, though she was American).
__________________
I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com Last edited by pmulcahy11b; 12-22-2010 at 10:00 PM.
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#53
12-23-2010, 03:42 AM
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On the topic of evacuations, I'm fairly sure that from a British and US (and presumably Canadian?) perspective this would have kicked in when the reinforcements started heading across the English Channel / Atlantic respectively. I'm going from memory but I think the reinforcements start arriving after the West Germans cross the IGB but before UK, US, and Canadian units get involved, so there's nearly two months for all military and embassy dependents to be evacuated. IMO that's more than enough time to get everyone out of the War zone and safely home. With regard to non military dependents, e.g. tourists, business people, ex pats. etc, I'm not so sure. Would Governments evacuate them on the same transports that are taking military families home, or would they need to to make their own way, which could prove problematic? One would imagine most scheduled flights in and out of West Germany would most likely be cancelled (I can't see British Airways or United flying sked services in and out of Frankfurt in between air raids), so I could see lots of people ending up in France, Holland, and Belgium trying to get flights or ferries home...(for anyone who saw the news coverage of the ash cloud in Europe earlier this year, I think we could see similar scenes). Therefore I think it's possible some of these people might potentially still be in the War zone at the start of December. Whilst non essential Embassy staff would probably be included in the dependent evacuation, essential staff would, presumably, have to stay until the fighting actually started and then take their chances (they may get some protection under the Vienna Convention?).
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#54
12-23-2010, 04:14 AM
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The typical pattern for Canadians as of late is to put off doing anything, then using civilian transport (leased, rented, etc.). As this is a deliberate act of war, and not a sudden crisis, I think the USA and Canada (and the UK) would have elaborate (too elaborate?) plans to evac dependents.
Tony
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#55
12-23-2010, 05:32 AM
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For the UK there was more of an emphasis on using cross channel ferries as the UK had no equivalent of POMCUS, so the BAOR's UK based reinforcements had to take all of their vehicles with them. Again for the UK, I'd think there would also be the possibility of chartered Eurostar trains taking dependents home through the Channel Tunnel (they'd have to transit France, but I can't see where the French could object to civilians passing through their territory).
__________________
Author of the unofficial and strictly non canon Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom
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#56
12-23-2010, 10:41 AM
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What always got to me was the POMCUS seemed to be geared for Armored Divisions, while none of the Divisions that were suppose to come from the mainland immediately had all of their components actives or had Brigade posted forwards already...
So it seems regardless if it was by designed or because how a military conflict would developed in Germany, it seems to me that very few US Divisions would have made the transition from the US to Germany intact. The exception of these would be the 82nd and 101st Division if they were transferred to Europe and not elsewhere. Even when National Guard and Reserve units had started to transfer over with their 'equipment' these would be the first units that would stand a chance of being sent to the front as a complete unit. Depending on how much equipment and manpower was sank and/or shot down. Many of these units may have been consolidated and the Divisions pieced together to come up with complete operational Divisions or if they could complete the Division the unit would be used to bring other Divisions that were in battle up to strength... Just some thoughts on that subject..
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#57
12-24-2010, 03:04 PM
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#58
12-25-2010, 07:42 AM
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Upon the squadron moving out for its forward battle positions, dependents were to remain in their quarters until the MPs brought buses around to evac the families with one suitcase each. Said suitcase was to be loaded with at least 3 days of clothing, bottled water and 3 days of MREs. The buses would take the dependents back to regimental headquarters in Nuremburg where they would board a train routed to Frankfurt for another bus trip to Rhien-Main air base. The intention was to load the dependents onto any commerical or military flight going back to the States. As can be seen, there were several holes in this, bus-train-bus-airplane. We were always assured that the Polizei-MPs would escort the dependents throughout the movement, but with Warsaw Pact aircraft going after communications hubs and bridges...Spetsnaz and Desants in the rear areas and their divisions launching a full scale attack?
__________________
The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#59
12-25-2010, 04:19 PM
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__________________
I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com
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#60
12-25-2010, 06:17 PM
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It would also argue that sendin the dependents home early would have been a decision that our political leadership wouldn't make out of fear of provoking the Soviets. Just pity the poor soldier who survives WWIII, only to find out his wife and kids died in an ambush on the bus on Day One....
__________________
The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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