Revised Timeline

[Top-Break]

I decided to put this timeline together for the benefit of some poeple in my area (Northern Virginia) who have been interested in me running a RPG. This timeline is pulled from Canon 1.0, 2.0, and 2.2, with modifications where needed. My main objective is to create a timeline that someone in 201X with no prior knowledge of Twilight 2000 can read without needing a detailed explaination afterwards.

I fully understand that meddling with Canon is potentially incindiary, so I have my Nomex flight suit and a fire extinguisher handy.


1989
The year the Cold War ends. Across Europe, communist governments topple in response to pro-democracy demonstrations or, in the case of Romania, armed insurrection. Voting with their feet, East German citizens flood to the west. In Poland, German ethnic organizations form in response to West Germany's policy of accepting as a German citizen anyone who can prove himself of Germanic descent (it is rumored that membership in ethnic clubs is good enough).

The Soviet Union's new policy of encouraging political pluralism in Europe makes the end of bureaucratic communism certain. Mao Tse-tung's forgotten maxim, "Let 10,000 flowers bloom," becomes reality as dozens of new parties spring into being. The only European communist governments that survive the revolution of 1989 are those outside the Warsaw Pact-Yugoslavia and Albania. The Berlin wall is torn down in spots, and German reunification is spoken of openly. The question is no longer "if," but rather, "when?"

Riots in the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan (over alleged repression of Armenians) require intervention by Soviet troops. The republic remains a powder keg for months.

Elsewhere, the Chinese political reform movement is brutally crushed by government military forces. An attempted coup against President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled (with the help of American air cover), and the republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

1990
In a major upset for political pundits in the United States, a coalition of opposition parties headed by Violetta Chamorro defeats Daniel Ortega's bid for re-election in Nicaragua.

Spring elections in the Soviet republics of Byelorussia, the Ukraine, and the RSFSSR sweep local reform candidates into office. Before, during, and after these elections, ethnic unrest continues to simmer in Azerbaijan, and spreads to the minority republics of Tajikistan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, mostly in the form of ethnic demonstrations and occasional riots. Low-level armed violence spreads throughout the Moslem parts of the Caucasus and Central Asia, although most of it fails to come to the attention of the rest of the world, who are distracted by events in Germany.

Iraq stuns the west by invading Kuwait in August. With the Soviet Union in disarray, the world rallies behind US leadership in resisting Iraqi aggression, and troops from a dozen countries, a few of them still formally members the Warsaw Pact, pour into Saudi Arabia.

The long awaited (and long-feared, in some circles) reunification of Germany becomes reality in October. The four power conferences (representing the United States, the United Kingdom, the USSR, and France) that recognize the inevitable, also guarantee Poland's territorial integrity. As a part of the agreement, NATO troops will maintain a presence in the newly unified republic (the only way some European nations will agree to the deed). The newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia, where the floundering efforts of the new (non-Communist) Polish government to convert from a controlled to a free economy result in only a partial success. By the end of the year, Soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

1991
In January, the Gulf Coalition began a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and followed it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February, which liberated Kuwait and crushed the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam Hussein remains in power in Iraq, his authority was reduced to the central third of his nation and his military was no longer capable of aggression against neighboring states.

In June 26th, Slovenia declares its independence from Yugoslavia. A ten-day struggle with Federal Yugoslav forces ensues before Slovene independence is secured. Croatia declares its own independence on June 25th, sparking conflict with Federal Yugoslav forces and ethnic Serb militias. Fighting in Croatia soon escalates, and attracts increasing world attention. In November, Bosnia-Hercegovina declares it’s own independence, widening the growing conflict as Bosnian-Serb militias take the field against the new Bosnian government it’s Croatian allies.

Ethnic and religious violence in the Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union escalates, and the Soviet Union increases its troop withdrawal schedule in order to use the forces inside its own borders. Fighting is particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabak.

Reforms continue, but with increasingly uneven results. Independence movements and calls for increased autonomy flourish in the Baltic republics, the Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere. In August, several leading members of the Soviet Politburo and Supreme Soviet unexpectedly resign after what government sources call a “poorly coordinated urban civil defense security exercise”.

Germany opts for continued membership in NATO, but at a greatly reduced level of commitment. Having reunified, Germany now turns its attentions to bringing the eastern portion of the country up to the standard of living of the West.
The Bundeswehr is radically reduced in size, and by year's end, Germany places increasing pressure on NATO to reduce troops in proportion to the Soviet withdrawal. Germany also pledges to station troops only in the western part of its territory in return for a complete Soviet troop pullout from eastern Germany.

1992
In March, NATO, Warsaw Pact, and German foreign ministers agree to the Rhineland Compromise, providing for token NATO forces to remain in the Rhineland for a period of five years. This force will consist of one British division, one French division, two U.S. divisions, and a brigade each from Belgium and the Netherlands. NATO's presence in Europe is reduced to five corps (one each British, French, and Benelux, two U.S.) in three armies (U.S. 7th, British Rhine, and French 1st).

At the request of the German government, the European parliament puts the universal European currency and other similar economic reform proposals on temporary hold. "Europe '92" is stillborn, to the relief of conservatives in Britain and the United States.

In February and March, democratic governments win elections in both Bulgaria and Albania. Greece and the new government of Albania sign a border treaty providing at least one point of stability in the region. By mid-year, Slovakian separatists have gained enough seats in the Czech parliamentary elections to force the division of the country into two sovereign states: Slovakia and the Czech Republic.

After early successes in holding down the Central Asian unrest, the Soviets suffer several major setbacks. TASS accuses Iran of supplying arms to rebels in Central Asia and Caucasus. Bloody fighting continues, with Islamic fundamentalist insurgents growing in strength. Late in the year, some Western observers begin to use the term "civil war" in referring to the Central Asian unrest.

In Eastern Europe, arms reduction talks spark discussions in the Warsaw Pact regarding the organization’s founding charter. Amendments to the Warsaw Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance include language increasing autonomy of individual member states, prohibitions against direct intervention in individual states affairs, and collective security agreements. Most Warsaw Pact member states sign off on the amendments, then pass the treaty to their legislatures for ratification. In Poland, the treaty is passed by the lower house of the legislature, but it is tabled by the upper house.

In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez takes power in a military coup. Upon taking power, Chavez forces the nationalization of the oil industry. Neighboring nations express alarm and some lodge protests, but nothing is substantial is done.

In the United States, a flagging economy and frustration with the failure of a “peace dividend” to materialize leads to the election of Bill Clinton, Democratic governor of Arkansas, to the presidency.

As the year comes to a close, US Marines arrive in famine-wracked Somalia to support UN-lead relief efforts.

1993
In his inaugural address, President Clinton sets universal health care reform and domestic reconstruction as his administration’s primary focus. Reductions in the defense budget made possible by the reduced American military presence allow funds to be directed towards domestic programs and cosmetic deficit reductions.

After several years of intensive investment in the eastern third of the country, Germany shows little signs of economic progress. Radical right wing political organizations swell in membership while skinhead violence against foreign workers and handicapped Germans escalates. Germany's government responds to the threat weakly, seeming to compromise with the right, and passes a strict series of immigration laws, which are widely compared by opponents to the Nazi "race laws” of the 1930’s.

Fighting in Central Asia continues for most of the year, but the Soviet military gradually begins to gain the upper hand, and regains control of most of the cities of tile region. A guerrilla war continues in the countryside, and many veterans of the fighting in Afghanistan a decade before find themselves fighting a very similar campaign. In Moscow, a political standoff between Gorbachev and the legislature results in Gorbachev’s resignation as General Secretary of the Soviet Union. Alexander Rutskoi, a former Soviet Air Force general, Afghan War veteran and POW, replaces him.

In China, unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang is contained, but not suppressed, with some force. To demonstrate that it is still a power to be reckoned with, the Chinese stage a series of ballistic missile tests and military exercises in the Taiwan Straits. The ensuing crisis is defused by the deployment of a US carrier battle group. In a surprise move, the Soviet UN Representative submits a resolution condemning Chinese actions and calling for (minimal) sanctions. Sino-Soviet relations sink to an all time low.

In Somalia, an escalating series of conflicts between US/UN forces and clan-based militias leads to a dramatic clash between US Rangers and Special Forces operators and warlord troops in Mogadishu. Outrage over casualties sustained and the release of video footage documenting a Somali mob’s abuse of American dead leads to the withdrawal of US troops and the collapse of the UN relief effort.

1994
As Europe shows signs of increasing instability, Germany begins quietly increasing its force structure. In January of 1994, the nine under strength divisions, which had been maintained as a token army, are brought up to full strength and each is given a territorial (reserve) brigade.

Unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang flares again in China. This time protests and strikes in previously quiet provinces elsewhere in China compound the problem. In an attempt to relieve the situation, the Chinese begin increasing support for dissidents and insurgents in Central Asia and Mongolia. Chinese officials increasingly speak of the “unequal treaties” which have defined China’s boundaries, particularly with the Soviet Union, Mongolia, Vietnam, North Korea, and even India.

In the United States, popular opposition to the Clinton Administration’s policies results in massive Republican gains in the mid-term elections. The landslide sweeps solid Republican majorities into both houses of Congress. Several pieces of the Administration’s legislative agenda, including the ratification of an arms reduction agreement with the Soviets, are effectively stillborn. In foreign policy, Clinton does enjoy some measure of success. By year's end, he negotiates a withdrawal of Turkish troops from Cyprus and a reunification of the island republic.

In Africa, the small, impoverished nation of Rwanda descends into a nightmare of tribal and ethnic genocide. UN indecision and US reluctance to become further involved in Africa results in French intervention. Central Africa is further destabilized by the collapse of the government of Zaire, and by the resulting civil war(s) which devastate the entire region.

1995
As tensions between the Soviet Union and China rise, incidents along the Sino-Soviet border become increasingly common. Border clashes increase in both frequency and intensity. In an attempt to stare down the Soviets, the Chinese launch a series of provocative exercises in both the Taiwan Straits and in Manchuria. The Soviets again introduce resolutions calling for condemnation of Chinese actions and for sanctions to be imposed. In addition, the Soviets call for a UN mediation of China’s border disputes. The Chinese demand the request to be rescinded, and warn that “China’s borders and sovereignty are not subject to discussion”. The Soviets respond by warning China against engaging in any “irredentist adventures”.

After years of bloody stalemate, the conflict in the former Yugoslavia is brought to an uneasy peace. The Clinton Administration, using a combination of “third party” aid to Croatia and UN sanctioned intervention in support of the Bosnian government, brings all parties to peace talks in Dayton, Ohio. Croatia and Slovenia become de facto members of NATO, while the Warsaw Pact courts the remainder of Yugoslavia. Bosnia tries to maintain neutrality.

In response to increasing regional instability, Germany declares its agreement on size and location of armed forces "obsolete in relation to the current European situation”. The six eastern territorial brigades are immediately expanded to weak divisions, while the original six divisions are expanded to nine (the additional troops being provided by mobilization of reserve units from the western part of the country).

In Romania, anti-government demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) in several Transylvanian cities are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. The Hungarian government again protests the mistreatment of these people at the hands of what the Magyars claim is an increasingly genocidal government.

Several days of anti-Turkish rioting in Bulgaria are touched off when a Bulgarian national, arrested for attempting to assassinate the president of the Turkish republic, dies in custody. Despite Turkish protestations that his death was from natural causes, the incident soon assumes crisis proportions and Turkish citizens are advised to leave Bulgaria.

1996
After a period of increasing tension and escalating border incidents, full-scale war erupts between the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China. The Soviet Army enjoys rapid initial success, and tank columns roar deep into the northern Chinese industrial heartland. The Soviet invasion is widely condemned in the West, but no substantive actions are taken. Chinese resistance exceeds most expectations, but is unable to stop the Soviet invasion. Worsening conditions in Tibet, Xinjiang and elsewhere prevents the Chinese from fully deploying their reserves to the front.

The Soviet advance takes Quiquihar and Harbin, then slows as Chinese resistance increases and reserves are finally brought up. The front lines stabilize outside of Changchun, and a stalemate is established.

The Soviet Union had already been mobilizing additional troops from the western military districts; this action is now placed on an emergency priority basis. In order to consolidate their gains, combat-ready divisions are withdrawn from Hungary and Poland and sent to the Far East. But the Far Eastern Front has become a meat grinder, which devours divisions as quickly as they can be committed. As a further step, the Soviets appeal to Warsaw Pact allies for assistance, citing the Pact’s collective defense agreements. Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary agree to send troops, but only as part of a US proposed East Asian Stabilization Force, which is hoped to help establish a cease-fire.

As factory output switches more and more to wartime production, the flow of consumer goods dwindles to a trickle. The economic recovery that had begun in the early '90s is wiped out, and standards of living in the Soviet Union plummet. Motor vehicles and railroad rolling stock are increasingly drawn out of the civilian sector to support the war effort. As the first snows of winter fall, the Soviets begin forming a Manchurian People’s Republic in occupied China. This breakaway government, lead by Chinese dissidents and backed by the KGB, is dismissed by most as “Manchukuo reborn”.

Popular opposition to the war leads to considerable unrest in eastern Europe, and many in the Warsaw Pact openly question the wisdom of serving as cannon fodder for the Soviet’s Chinese troubles.

1997
Their ranks swollen with newly mobilized troops, Soviet forces launch a spring offensive against the Chinese. Despite good initial gains, the drive soon stalls, with horrendous casualties. The Chinese have now recovered from the twin shocks of foreign invasion and internal unrest, and are now able to stand firm against the Soviets. Arms and equipment arrive from the West, despite a UN arms embargo on all parties to the conflict. To worsen the situation for the Soviets, the East Asian Stabilization Force and the Manchurian auxiliaries prove to be a disappointment. Hungarian troops are withdrawn after that nation exercises the sovereign rights clause of the Warsaw Treaty.

New tactics are devised, but more troops are needed. Most Soviet Category B readiness divisions are mobilized and sent to the Far East by mid-year, and almost a quarter of the Category A divisions from the western European frontier garrisons are committed.
Many of the low-readiness Category C divisions are upgraded to Category B or mobilized. For the first time in 50 years the mobilization-only divisions begin training. Many of the machinegun artillery divisions formed for territorial defense in the early '90s begin converting back to motorized rifle formations.

In response to the departure of the Hungarians, and at the urging of Moscow, Poland prepares to send an additional division to the Far East. This move, combined with popular opposition to the war and worsening economic conditions, leads to the collapse of the Polish government. The Poles are divided between pro-Western reformers and hard line socialist/communist conservatives, who favor a continued alliance with the Soviets. A wave of demonstrations by ethnic Germans in western Poland supporting the reformers is violently suppressed by riot police, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Germany offers support to the reformers, and voices its concern for the ethnic German community in western Poland. Germany quietly moves several divisions closer to the border.

When the conservative-dominated security services attempt a coup in coordination with the Soviet garrison, reformers in the army and government appeal to the West and NATO for assistance. On October 7th, 1997, the Bundeswehr crosses the Polish border and engages Soviet garrison units still in the country. The Polish Army in the east remains quietly in barracks.

From the beginning, this is a "come as you are" war; neither side is adequately prepared. The German Army has just finished a period of very rapid growth and rebuilding; many of its units are being equipped with tanks and vehicles which have sat idle in warehouses for four or five years. The Soviets are at the end of several years of very limited military spending capped by a war in the east which has drawn off much of their best equipment already. The Polish Army is largely supportive of the reformers, but is reluctant to openly side with the Germans, their traditional enemy. What tips the balance against the Germans is the surprising entry of the Slovak Army in the war on the side of the Warsaw Pact.

By the end of November, the Bundeswehr is in serious trouble. Soviet Frontal Aviation has left its most modern aircraft in the west, which is qualitatively and quantitatively a match for the Luftwaffe. The Slovak Army finally cracks the line of German reservists holding the southern flank and cuts north into Germany itself, closing on Berlin. Heady with victory, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces its intention to occupy and repartition Germany as a guarantee against aggression.

Claiming that its actions were justified and in support of the legitimate government of Poland and that it is now faced with dismemberment as a state, Germany turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debates the prudence of intervention, the U.S. Army crosses the frontier.

Within a week, France, Belgium and Greece first demand that U.S. troops withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British and Canadian forces cross the border, however, while Danish, Dutch, and Italian troops remain in place, still partners in NATO but not party to the war.

In the far north, Soviet troops make a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. Most of the best arctic-equipped divisions have already been sent east, however, and the third-line troops available are unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandos and U.S. Marines join the battle, the front line moves east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and the elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed.

At sea, the Soviet Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, but the western fleet comes out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. Eighty percent of the Soviet northern fleet surface tonnage rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas. Scattered commerce raiders break out, however, and by year's end they are wreaking havoc on the NATO convoys bringing reinforcements, ammunition, and equipment across the Atlantic.

When Romanian police shoot and kill a man crossing the border between Hungary and Romania, the Hungarian government suspends diplomatic relations. The Romanians claim he was a smuggler, bringing arms to anti-government forces. Three days later, Hungarian army spies or Romanian government provocateurs (depending on which side you believe) blow up a Romanian railway station in Cluj.

The Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. Police sweeps are met with armed resistance, and within a week a secessionist Magyar government declares its independence from Romania. As Romanian troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests, is ignored, and then (with its allies) declares war.
As Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Soviet troops cross the border, Romania formally declares war on the three invading nations and appeals to NATO for assistance. Croatia, Slovenia, and Macedonia declare their support for the Romanians, but are unable to offer more than token support. NATO responds with the offer of full membership in the alliance to all four nations, which they accept. More concrete assistance takes the form of the Turkish 1st Army, which launches its offensive against a thin Bulgarian covering force in Thrace on Christmas Eve.

1998
On the first day of the New Year, the NATO heads of state declare their support for the Polish reformers’ government. Those elements of the Polish Army, which are still intact and have not been disarmed by the Soviets, rally to the reformers. Polish troops begin taking action against Soviet and Slovak forces, and new formations are raised in NATO-controlled areas.

During January, continuing Turkish successes in Bulgaria spark a wave of patriotism in the Turks, particularly since Greece has remained neutral in the war. On Cyprus, unoccupied and supposedly reunited for three years, the Turkish Cypriots demonstrate in favor of Turkey. The demonstrations turn into anti-Greek riots, and the Cypriot Army moves to restore order. In response, the Turkish Army invades Cyprus and quickly occupies most of the island. Greece first sends military units to Cyprus to resist the Turks, then declares war on Turkey and attacks the Turkish forces in Thrace.

In late February, the governments of Serbia and Greece conclude a mutual defense pact. While Serbia is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, the Serb government declares the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging elsewhere, promising to intervene on Greece's side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Turkey's favor.

In an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Soviet and Slovak troops return to the offensive in southern Germany but do not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring, the NATO offensive gains momentum, and in April the first German troops approach the frontiers of the Soviet Union.

By late spring, NATO's Atlantic Fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders, and the surviving attack carriers and missile cruisers move to northern waters. The NATO drive in the north has bogged down on the banks of the Litsa River, but the Northern Front commander now contemplates a bold move to destroy the remnants of Soviet naval power there. While U.S. and British units attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland, the NATO Atlantic Fleet will close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and airbases to a massive bombardment. On June 7, the ground offensive is launched, and the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter.
Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, seriously delaying the flanking move. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of the Soviet Northern Fleet's shore-based naval aviation inflict crippling losses on the NATO fleet. By mid-June the last major naval fleet-in-being in the world has been shattered.

In the south, the front in Romania stabilizes and enters a period of attritional warfare. Soviet mobilization-only divisions, largely leg- mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, enter the lines. Although the Romanians prove better soldiers than the over-aged and ill-trained Soviet recruits, the manpower difference begins to be felt.

The best Soviet troops are shipped further south to Bulgaria and by May have managed to halt the Turkish drive. As Greek pressure on the Turkish left flank in Thrace builds, unit after Turkish unit is shifted to face the Greeks. It becomes clear that, without aid, the Turkish Army will have to fall back or be defeated.

On June 27, a NATO convoy of fast transports and cargo ships, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Turkish port of Izmir with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Light fleet elements of the Greek Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Izmir, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed. Two days later NATO retaliates with air strikes against Greek naval bases. On July 1, Greece declares war against the NATO nations and Serbia, in compliance with her treaty obligations, follows suit on July 2. Serbian forces launch a determined drive into neutral Bosnia, laying siege to Sarajevo and hoping to seize traditionally ethnic-Serb territories before Croat-NATO forces can be brought to bear.

In Asia, pro-Soviet India and anti-Soviet Pakistan drift into war through an escalating spiral of border incidents, mobilization, and major armed clashes. Outright war begins in the spring, and by mid-year the Indian Army is slowly advancing across the length of the front, despite fierce resistance.

By early July, NATO main elements are closing up on the Soviet frontier in the central region, while attempting to assist the efforts of their allies in the Balkans. The Polish government asserts its claim to the pre-1939 Polish borders in the east. In the Far East, Pact forces begin major withdrawals all along the front, and the mobile elements of the Chinese Army begin a victorious pursuit.

On July 9, with advance elements of the 1st German Army on Soviet soil, the Soviets begin using tactical chemical and nuclear weapons. In the West, they are used sparingly at first, and for the first week are used only against troop concentrations no further than 50 kilometers from the Soviet border. In the Far East, however, they are used on a massive scale. Chinese mechanized columns are decimated, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit. Strike aircraft deliver warheads on the northern Chinese population and industrial centers still in Chinese hands. The Chinese response is immediate, but Soviet forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared. Ballistic missile attacks on Soviet population centers are frustrated by an active and efficient ABM system, and the Soviet Air Defense Command massacres the handful of Chinese bombers who attempted low-level penetration raids. Within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent, but Soviet attacks continue. The Chinese communication and transportation system, already stretched to the breaking point, disintegrates. The roads are choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities, all of them potential targets. China begins the rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder.

On the western front, the forward elements of both armies on the Soviet-Polish frontier are hit hard by tactical nuclear strikes, as NATO matches the Warsaw Pact warhead-for-warhead. By late August, the first of the Soviet divisions released from the Far East enters the lines. Although the front lines are fluid everywhere, they begin moving west.
On September 15, the Soviet forces reach the outskirts of Warsaw and a week later Slovak and Soviet troops begin a renewed offensive in southern Germany. The southern offensive gains momentum, and NATO forces in Poland increase the rate of their withdrawal, practicing a scorched earth policy as they fall back.

The Soviet and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also begin a major offensive against the Turks in September. The one-sided use of tactical nuclear weapons breaks the stalemate, and by month's end Bulgarian tank brigades are racing toward Istanbul. Simultaneously, Greek and Serbian troops launch a drive against Croats and NATO forces in Bosnia. At the same time, the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons, the increasing numbers of Soviet reserves, and the inability of NATO to provide adequate assistance causes the Romanian front to collapse. As Warsaw Pact columns sweep through both countries, isolated military units withdraw into the mountains and begin to wage a guerrilla war.

In the west, NATO air units begin making deep nuclear strikes against communications hubs in Czechoslovakia and Byelorussia in an attempt to slow the Warsaw Pact advance. The Pact responds with similar strikes against German industrial targets and major port cities. NATO's theater nuclear missiles are launched against an array of industrial targets and port cities in the western Soviet Union. Throughout October the exchanges continue, escalating gradually. Fearful of a general strategic exchange, neither side targets the land-based ICBMs of the other or launches enough warheads at once to risk convincing the other side that an all-out attack is in progress. Neither side wishes to cross the threshold to nuclear oblivion in one bold step, so they inch across it, never quite knowing they have done so until after the fact.

First, military targets are hit (including the first decapitating strikes at U.S. targets), then industrial targets vital to the war effort, followed by economic targets of military importance (transportation and communication, oil fields and refineries). Then major industrial and oil centers in neutral nations are targeted to prevent their use by the other side. Warheads are aimed at logistical stockpiles and command control centers of the armies in the field. The civilian political command structure is first decimated, then eliminated (almost by accident in some cases). The exchanges continue, fitfully and irregularly, through November and then gradually peter out.

Pakistan and India waged their own nuclear war. Facing defeat, Pakistan launches a pre-emptive strike on India's economic sites and nuclear strike force. Although industrial centers are hit hard, enough of India's nuclear arsenal survives to launch a devastating retaliatory strike. The Indian-Pakistani war soon winds down, as each country's economy can no longer feed its civilians, let alone supply military units.

1999
The winter of 1998-99 is particularly cold. Civilian war casualties in the industrialised nations have reached almost 15% by the turn of the year, but the worst is yet to come. Communication and transportation systems are non-existent, and food distribution is impossible. In the wake of nuclear war comes famine on a scale previously undreamed of. Only the exceptionally cold winter delays simultaneous epidemics. In the nations of the Third World, destruction of major industries together with cessation of western food aid causes severe dislocations, with famine and starvation in many areas.

With the spring thaw, the unburied dead finally bring on the epidemics the few remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases sweep through the world's population. By the time they have run their courses, the global casualty rate will be 50%.
In Europe, France and Belgium were hit the lightest and stand virtually alone in maintaining a semblance of internal order throughout the cataclysm. As refugees begin flooding across their borders, the French and Belgian governments close their frontiers, and military units begin turning back refugees with gunfire. The French government authorises the army to move west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier. As the refugees pile up on the French and Belgian frontiers, a large lawless zone springs into existence. Open fighting for food is followed by mass starvation and disease, until the lawless zone becomes barren and empty.

The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front has fallen to about 8000, with U.S. divisions running at about half of that. Warsaw Pact divisions now vary widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2000-4000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition temporarily paralyze the armies. Peace might have come, but no governments survive to negotiate it. Only the military command structures remain intact, and they are faithful to the final orders of their governments. In a time of almost universal famine, only the military has the means of securing and distributing rations. Military casualties have been much lower than casualties among civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan bands in the mountains of Romania and Bosnia have escaped almost untouched, while many Pact and NATO regular units were destroyed in the exchange or have just melted away after it. The Romanians and Bosnians begin forming regular combat units again, although they are still structured to live off the land and subsist from captured enemy equipment. At first, a great deal of enemy equipment is just lying around waiting to be picked up.

In North America, a flood of hungry refugees begins crossing the Rio Grande, and most of the remaining military forces of the United States are deployed to the southwest to deal with the mounting crisis. They move at the orders of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, now the de facto government of the United States. Widespread food riots and violence in refugee areas are met with military force. The Mexican government protests, and within months Mexican Army units cross the Rio Grande to protect Mexican lives. More U.S. units are shifted south. Scattered fighting grows into open warfare, and Mexican armored columns drive northeast toward Arkansas and northwest into southern California. The front quickly stabilizes in northeast Texas and central California. Elsewhere in the U.S. civil disorder and anarchy increase with the withdrawal of army units.

In late June, the Pact forces in southern Germany renew their offensive in an attempt to seize the scattered surviving industrial sites in central Germany. Actually, the most intact parts of Germany are those areas in the south, which had been under Warsaw Pact occupation, as neither side was willing to strike the area heavily. Galvanized into renewed action, NATO forces make a maximum effort to reform a coherent front, and the Pact offensive finally stalls along a line from Frankfurt to Fulda.

In late August, NATO launches its own offensive from the area of Chemnitz, driving south to penetrate the Pact rear areas in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The thinly spread Czech border guard units are overwhelmed, and Pact forces in central Germany begin a withdrawal to Bohemia, laying waste to southern Germany as they retreat.

A simultaneous offensive by the remnants of the Croatian Army and NATO forces drives east in an attempt to lift the siege of Sarajevo. Unfortunately, shortages of fuel, the Italians’ refusal to allow NATO strike aircraft to operate from their territory and the Croatians insistence upon liberating ethnic-Croat territories in Bosnia, cause the offensive to stall.
As more Pact units arrive in Czechoslovakia, the NATO drive runs out of steam and loses its sense of direction. Troops are shifted west to garrison the recaptured but devastated south of Germany.

As the autumnal rains begin, NATO and the Pact initiate a short and weak second nuclear exchange, directed primarily at surviving industrial centers in the United Kingdom and Italy. Fighting runs down to the level of local skirmishing as both sides prepare for winter.

2000
Once spring planting is finished, the United States Congress reconvenes for the first time since the exchange of nuclear missiles. Senator John Broward (D, Ill.), a former mayor of Chicago who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats, is elected president by the House of Representatives. General Jonathan Cummings, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refuses to recognise the constitutional validity of the election, citing the lack of a proper quorum and numerous irregularities in the credentials of the attending congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision will later be widely criticized, there is much validity to his position. Many congressional seats are disputed; several of the congressmen in attendance are merely self-appointed local strongmen who have gained control of large parts of the old congressional districts, and some have never seen the districts they purport to represent. There is at least one confirmed gunfight between rival claimants to a seat while congress is in session.)

General Cummings declares a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census is practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and Presidential electoral votes. President Broward responds with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declines to submit. While some military units side with the new civilian government, the majority continue to take orders from the joint chiefs (particularly those overseas) for two simple reasons: First, the habit of obedience is deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, is all that has allowed units to survive thus far. Second, the Joint Chiefs control virtually all the surviving telecommunications networks.

In North America, the main effect of the split is the further erosion of central authority. Forced to choose between two rival governments, both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many localities simply choose to ignore both.

The surviving foreign and national organisations dealing or concerned with the United States choose between the rival governments. The German military government and Polish reformist government continue relations with the joint chiefs, while the partisan commands of the Balkans and Romania recognise the civilian government. The remnants of the Central Intelligence Agency obey the orders of the civilian government, while the National Security Agency, loyal to the joint chiefs, organises a field operations branch to replace the CIA "defectors." Officially, forces of the two governments refrain from violent confrontation, but there are sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.

In the autumn, the dispatch of troops to Europe resumes, although only as a trickle. A few warships are available as escorts, and various old merchant vessels are pressed into service as transports. Initiated by the civilian government, both governments briefly compete in a struggle to outdo each other, viewing success as a litmus test of their ability to mobilise the nation. In fact, the call-ups affect only the Atlantic coast and lead to widespread resistance. The dispatch of troops, supplies, and equipment to Europe makes little sense to most, considering the appalling state of affairs in the United States. The reinforcements sent include a small number of light vehicles and ammunition, but consist mostly of light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular support weapon for troops, as they can be turned out in quantity from small machine shops and garages.

In Europe, the fronts are static for most of the year. Low troop densities mean that infiltration raids become the most common form of warfare. The "front" ceases to be a line and becomes a deep occupied zone as troops settle into areas and begin farming and small- scale manufacturing to meet their supply requirements. Local civilians are hired to farm and carry out many administrative functions in return for security from the increasing numbers of marauders roaming the countryside. In other areas, the security the military unit provides to its civilians is from the unit itself, a post-nuclear version of the ancient "protection" racket. Many units stationed in barren areas drift apart or turn to marauding when supplies do not arrive.

Although most attacks by large bodies of marauders are directed at areas held by "the enemy," they begin to be directed at "allied" units as well, although at first not against units of the same nationality. The effects of the chaos ensuing from the
destruction of world trade and the death of a sizable portion of the population are felt globally.

No territory though, however remote, remains untouched by the war. Even scientific stations in the Antarctic and orbiting space laboratories are abandoned as the war drags on.
Civil authority has virtually ceased to exist. Most military units are practicing extensive local recruiting in an attempt to keep up to strength, and stragglers are often incorporated into units regardless of nationality. Thus, U.S. units contain a wide variety of former NATO and Warsaw Pact soldiers in addition to Americans.

Nominal titles of units (brigades, divisions, etc.) have little bearing on the actual size of the unit.

As the year draws to a close, NATO forces in the central region begin stockpiling materials for the upcoming campaign season. The German 3rd Army, reinforced by the US XI Corps, begins to assemble for what will be the last strategic offensive of the war.