Aftershock

[Webstral]

I watched the presentation on “Aftershock” on News Max. You may not be able to tell, but I’m hyperventilating. It does occur to me, though, that the “Aftershock” world represents a possible hybrid between Merc and Twilight.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I watched the presentation on “Aftershock” on News Max.

For those of us in the rest of the world, what is it?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I think it's a treatise on potential economic collapse or something of that nature.

[Rainbow Six]

It's a new one on me...the only Aftershock I'm familiar with is a drink...

[Webstral]

In a nutshell, “Aftershock” is a prediction of a multi-bubble pop in the US economy that will lead to a double-dip recession with the second dip really being a depression. According to the author, the housing bubble went first, but it didn’t really pop; it deflated some without reaching the point at which US housing values are in line with incomes. The stock market took a hit in 2008, but now it’s rising again propped up by a lot of money printed by the Fed but not yet distributed. Inflation is being kept low by the very low interest rates. The debt load means that sooner or later all that printed money is going to come out into the market. This will trigger inflation. Interest rates will rise very significantly as dollars flood the economy, which will cause a major rise in US debt and take the rest of the air out of the housing market. The stock market, which has outpaced incomes since 1982 by several hundred percent, will undergo a severe correction (I can’t remember the trigger). The dollar will lose as much as half of its value, housing will lose 25-50% of its current value, the stock market will lose as much as 90% of its value, unemployment will rise to as much as 30%, and the GNP may be cut in half. Oh, and the US will default on its debt.

Add to this unpleasant phenomenon the drought, rising seas, and our decaying infrastructure, and you have a distinctly unpleasant prospect for the future. China will realize that their days of reliable exports to the US have passed at the same time that the US economy can’t support war in the western Pacific. The problem with dismissing “Aftershock” is that it makes sense. The author(s) predicted the housing meltdown long before it occurred. The stock market bubble and dollar bubbles popping makes perfect sense, since they are obviously overvalued. Federal debt will make it impossible to respond effectively in the face of crises. Think of the German Army after the Battle of the Bulge.

Anyway, this scenario seems like a good one for a role-playing game that combines some aspects of Twilight, some aspects of Merc, and some new aspects that would focus on finding local solutions to problems. Without the US to keep one thumb on the lid of problems, the world would start settling scores and redividing resources. Personally, I’m not opposed to a United States that doesn’t send $700 billion in petrodollars overseas every year. But the pain the short term could get very, very ugly. We’re in an ugly mood that is unlikely to get prettier in the short term.