Yugoslavia...

[dude_uk]

So how do you fit this into the timeline?

1) Fear of Soviet Intervention. Keeps everyone civil until the war at least.

2) A Soviet incursion. Whilst US is distracted by events in the Gulf. Perhaps the Soviet Premier uses this to settle an old score?

[Rainbow Six]

Fairly sure that the various timelines have Yugoslavia still existing as a Sovereign state at the start of the War (going from memory there are references to Yugoslavia being granted membership of NATO, the Yugoslav Army being halted in the vicinity of Lake Balaton, etc) so that suggests to me that the breakup into splinter states does not happen until 1997 (at the earliest)?

I'm no expert on Balkan politics, but it does seem a bit coincedental that the break up of Yugoslavia IRL coincided with the break up of the Soviet Union (more or less) so an intact Soviet Union would suggest that there's an increased likliehood of an intact Yugoslavia?

[Benjamin]

I go with a modified TL that borrows a bit from Sir John Hackett's books. In those Yugoslavia begins to fall apart and its various parts ask for support from the two big blocs. Civil War occurs and includes a clash between US Marines and Soviet troops along the Slovenian border. I'd imagine Croatia and perhaps Bosnia and Macedonia would be pro-NATO as well. Serbia would tend to lean towards the USSR an attempt to reclaim whatever it could take by force.

Benjamin

[Olefin]

One thing you could change is to make the breakup states in the game actually match reality versus what they did in the game. I.e. Albania, who was pro-Chinese, would definitely aid in any fight against the Soviets. Croatia would be more pro-US and pro-Germany along with Slovenia, whereas Montenegro and Serbia would be pro-Russian.

Bosnia would be more of the battleground area - i.e. a place where the Serbs and Croats are both fighting to grab territory and thus a complete mixed up mess instead of anything approaching a country

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I'm no expert on Balkan politics, but it does seem a bit coincedental that the break up of Yugoslavia IRL coincided with the break up of the Soviet Union (more or less) so an intact Soviet Union would suggest that there's an increased likliehood of an intact Yugoslavia?

I agree.

[Canadian Army]

2) A Soviet incursion. Whilst US is distracted by events in the Gulf. Perhaps the Soviet Premier uses this to settle an old score?

This is most likely scenario, after the "intervention" they would set up a puppet government, and then start build soviet ships to put on Mediterranean in order to pressure on NATO and divert some forces away from Germany.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Olefin

One thing you could change is to make the breakup states in the game actually match reality versus what they did in the game. I.e. Albania, who was pro-Chinese, would definitely aid in any fight against the Soviets. Croatia would be more pro-US and pro-Germany along with Slovenia, whereas Montenegro and Serbia would be pro-Russian.

Bosnia would be more of the battleground area - i.e. a place where the Serbs and Croats are both fighting to grab territory and thus a complete mixed up mess instead of anything approaching a country

Whilst I would repeat my caveat that I'm no expert on the politics of the region, it does seem a bit odd that GDW had the US allied with the Serbs. Were the Croats actually aligned with anyone in T2K or were they fighting everbody?

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Whilst I would repeat my caveat that I'm no expert on the politics of the region, it does seem a bit odd that GDW had the US allied with the Serbs. Were the Croats actually aligned with anyone in T2K or were they fighting everbody?

According to my mother (who is from Croatia and was an Anti-Tito partisan for many years), a US Administration that aligned itself with the Serbs would be despised throughout the Balkans, possibly including Greece and European Turkey. Serbia was the home of the hated Chetniks; the way she talks, the Chetniks didn't even like each other. But they were united in their love of torture, murder, rape, etc. They even aligned themselves with the Nazis when they were around.

[Olefin]

If there is anywhere that the timeline needs a reboot its the whole idea of Yugoslavia and the US forces there and who they are allied with. Not sure how the GDW writers ever came up with the idea of the US being allied with the Serbs - that is an obvious not well researched idea.

Plus how are they supplying them - per multiple modules CivGov and the French are hostile to each other - so any supply ship has to run the gauntlet of the Med, get past French ships at Gib, then get past Italian and Greek ships as well (there have to be at least a few corvettes and patrol ships left) just to get there.

With Italy and Greece hostile, and the French situation with CivGov, those forces should have never even gotten there in the first place, let alone been able to be supported somehow for the last two years by a CivGov that at most has a few ships operating out of the Carolinas on the whole Atlantic Seaboard.

A much more likely scenario, if you want to keep US troops in Yugoslavia, is that they were originally sent by MilGov as part of an operation to seize Sicily, then after the split , declared for CivGov and they sent them from there to land in Yugoslavia and are using Sicily to draw supplies from, with Sicily being held by friendly Italian forces and at least some men from one of the three US units (or possibly units created from grounded airmen, stranded naval personnel and logistics personnel).

That is a much more plausible scenario for getting them there in the first place and keeping them supplied since then.

You still end up with three US divisions under CivGov control in Yugoslavia so the only change to the timeline and world situation would be US control of at least some of Sicily. As to when - the most obvious time to me would be after the Gib nuke strike to give the US some kind of base for operations in the Med and to support their allies there (which in the timeline would be pro-US Morocco, Tunisia, Yugoslavia, Israel and Egypt). Especially with Gib gone and probably Alexandria as well (the refineries there would be nuked for sure) and possibly the harbor facilities in Tunisia taken out too.

[James Langham]

I actually quite like the unlikely bed fellows part of the alliances, it's quite nice to use them to challenge preconceptions. Probably no more strange than Italy in the Pact and Romania in NATO...

I haven't looked too much into the reasons behind the alliances but bear in mind that GDW actually did a really good job predicting the fragmentation of Yugoslavia. I would guess there were good reasons even if they weren't published.

[Olefin]

The Serbs make no sense at all though - if anything they would be allied with the Russians. The Croats were not pro-Russian at all - they would be for the Germans and the Americans right up to any US alliance with the Serbs. After that you can kiss them goodbye.

I can see the Romanians doing what they did in the timeline - they were a very independent people and they fought the Russians long and hard in WWII. Also they had a serious territorial grudge with Russia as well. Plus once the Russians invaded them, all bets are off as to if they would have joined NATO in real life - given the tactical situation they would have had no other choice.