Saudi prince views US shale reserves as an imminent threat

[raketenjagdpanzer]

...to the point that he's urging his country's diversification...

(THIS IS T2k RELEVANT, PROMISE)

Given that the US is going to, according to the T2k timeline, withdraw from the ME completely I would be compelled given this information we now have to say that someone woke up and said "Wait a second, our population is 20% of what it was pre-war, there is no urban and suburban population mobility so cars-as-leisure-purchases are no longer relevant, all we need oil for is lubricant and fuel for military/reconstruction purposes...guys, we've got a ton of shale and some surviving "wet" oil production here in the 'States, there's no reason to keep those guys out on the sharp end anymore."

Yes, yes, I'm aware that the USA per some folks' canon has to be GRIMDARK but regardless, given that there's no EPA to object to fracking, or mining shale wherever it is (aw, this is a national park? Guess what, it's now a national fuel reserve), I could see that as a big part of the US getting back on its feet after 2002 or so.

By 2010 we might even see fully mechanical harvests again.

[Olefin]

If you ignore HW its down to 48 percent of prewar population but I agree with you on fracking to get at oil here - and frankly I dont think MilGov or CivGov is going to give a damn about environmental regulations for quite a while after the war comes to an end - especially considering they will have to dispose of a lot of chemical and radioactive contaminated soil and materials if they ever want to make NJ, NYC, DC, LA and Philly totally habitable again

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Yup. Getting gas and diesel for heavy machinery will be a must for the recovery effort. If you put every person in the US capable of working at clearing out a ruined or damaged city (or even neighborhood) and had to do it by hand even ignoring the radiation hazards and assuming people didn't die from tetanus, being killed in accidents on the job-site etc. you're talking about decades just for one good sized town to get ruins removed and rebuilt.

Get some heavy machinery in there powered by sweet, sweet shale gas and oil and it becomes feasible again...

[Olefin]

and you wouldnt want to bring CENTCOM and AFRICOM (guys in Kenya) forces home, let alone Korea unless you have the gas to be able to use them right - which could explain the lag in time for the US forces to finally leave the Middle East

[mikeo80]

As I see the issue of Oil, Gas, Fracking, etc.

1) Post TDM. Whatever government structure is left will have to scramble to every little gas station and storage depot to extract every oz. of fuel.

2) Post TDM. That same structure will have to find and protect any living wildcat drilling team and equipment. (Harry Stamper and crew comes to mind)

3) Post TDM. That same structure will have to find and protect any existing raw oil refinery. As well as any living workers. Even if you have to divert defensive power away from other needs. I can see SEVERAL Patriot anti-missle units being diverted to whatever refineries are out there post TDM.

These three steps MUST happen as quickly as possible. In the chaos of TDM, that quickness will be VERY difficult. But it MUST be done.

Once these steps are complete, I forsee the next step being the construction of some refinery capacity. Much of the TDM strike was against the infrastructure of oil refining. You can get all of the oil out of the ground, but you still have to refine it to diesel at least. This will take TIME. I am no oil expert, but the German coal to diesel refineries (WWII) did not happen overnight. Much of their production was diesel for the Panzers.

Once you have diesel, many options begin to open. I suspect as the other posters have mentioned, a GreenPeace or EPA representative will not have a pleasant reception. I forsee anyone trying to protest the building of these steps being SHOT. Then and there.

My $0.02

Mike

[Green Monkey]

Long time lurker unlurking because unlike usual I think I can add some intelligent comment to this question.

Mike is right on the money with emphasis on refining capacity in the medium to long term. Given the relatively wide geographical distribution and distribution of crude oil production in the US I think crude won't be as rare as the books make out. If you google oil and gas divestiture there will be no end of opportunities to spend anything from a few thousand to a few billion dollars to own anything from a prospect through small producing assets to large development projects.

How readily a refinery can be modified to produce more diesel (and jet fuel which are relatively similar) will depend on the crude that feeds it and how complex the refinery is to start with. An oil refinery will generally produce from gaseous hydrocarbons through gasolene (which is relatively light) then diesel/jet/kerosene (heavier) fuel oil (very heavy) to coke/bitumen (solid hydrocarbons). I would suggest that altering the configuration post TDM might be biting off more than is worth chewing.

It's also interesting that given low gas prices in the US some companies are looking at reconfiguring large long range trucks to run on gas (westport innovations for example). Whether this technology would have existed in t2k I'm not sure but it shows that all the refinery's products could find a use.

I've also been really surprised at the availability of small scale oil refineries on ali baba. I suspect they are probably quite inefficient and not so great environmentally but I think in a t2k type scenario that these sorts of facilities could either be fabricated or alternatively built using salvage from damaged refineries. There are a number of references to illegal refineries in chechnya which are probably the sorts of things that would pop up post tdm.

I know its going to rub some folks the wrong way but I don't think GDW got the fuel thing quite right. The constraints are at the refinery (especially in CONUS) and I suspect that improvisation and desperation would lead to local solutions. There would be folks all over texas, louisiana, oklahoma, california etc who I reckon could knock up a little refinery to get feed from a few local wells and I think there would be national guard or local law enforcement (or even regulars) who would prioritise this for resources, personnel and security

Last point -shale is obviously a huge thing in the real world but probably would have been quite an experimental technology 20 years ago.

Cheers,

Nick

[kato13]

Welcome Nick. Glad to see your input.

Originally Posted by Green Monkey

Mike is right on the money with emphasis on refining capacity in the medium to long term. Given the relatively wide geographical distribution and distribution of crude oil production in the US I think crude won't be as rare as the books make out.

Given in 1997 there were 175,475 producing wells in Texas alone, I fully agree.

Originally Posted by Green Monkey

Last point -shale is obviously a huge thing in the real world but probably would have been quite an experimental technology 20 years ago.

The technology was there (fear of shale was a huge factor in opec ramping up production in 1986) but the infrastructure was not.

[Olefin]

Well we know of several operating refineries from the canon - at least one in the IL area, the one in the Texas module, and at least a couple in Oklahoma (I think the actual wording was refineries in HW)

The one thing I dont agree with is from HW where somehow MILGOV lets those OK refineries get overrun and the one in IL be damaged by being not properly run - sorry but keeping those going would probably rank above everything except securing nuclear materials on their list

and if you have working tanks - which they do - those tanks are going to make damn sure their source of fuel gets protected - I dont see any marauder force beating working properly fueled tanks in open ground

but even if those remaining big facilities somehow go you will have lots of little mom and pop type operations going - its not that hard to refine diesel on a small scale - and while small scale isnt going to get the country back on its feet in ten years it will be able to get it back on its feet in say fifty years while all that small scale allows you to make parts, fix machinery, go to medium scale and then so on and so on

[schnickelfritz]

I don't have my pile of Challenge Magazines handy, but there is a mini adventure for T2K called "Pennsylvania Crude" in one of them that may cover this.

Those of you who have not seen it should try to catch a program called "Backyard Oil" in the Discovery Channel...this would probably be very common post TDM

http://dsc.discovery.com/tv-shows/backyard-oil

Remember, small crude refineries popped up starting in the late 1800's in the US...they may be crude, but some gas and diesel is better than none.

-Dave

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by schnickelfritz

Remember, small crude refineries popped up starting in the late 1800's in the US...they may be crude, but some gas and diesel is better than none.-Dave

Or just too small to warrant a nuke. This one recently reopened in southern Kentucky after several years of inactivity:

http://www.continentalrefiningco.com/

At a max capacity of 5,500 barrels/day, in a county with a total population just over 50k at the time of the Twilight War, I can't see it being enough of a strategic target for someone to allocate an ICBM warhead.

- C.

[Olefin]

Basically if its less than 100,000 barrels a day it got left un-nuked - and even some of the bigger facilities got left untouched - i.e. a la the Spanish Main module the pirates are going to be raiding the oil rich island of Aruba - meaning that the refinery there, which is well in excess of 100,000 barrels a day didnt get touched - otherwise the only oil that would be there would be fish oil

[stormlion1]

Does anyone know the status of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? I know there primarily on the Gulf Coast near Refinerys and kept underground in old Salt Mines but that's about it.

[Olefin]

Probably most of it got used during 1998 and 1999 for the harvests, to fuel the forces fighting in Alaska and the Southwest and to ship supplies and troops to Europe - there may still be some of it left but if so its down a bare minimum by now

[Littlearmies]

"Small Oil" has come up a few times on this forum:

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.p...sylvania+crude

If you search down the thread there are a couple of articles I found a few years ago. However, charging a 5,500 barrel a day refinery (ie filling up the system so it can run efficiently) would require a considerable investment in transport infrastructure. So you'd really need a working railway link between your production fields and the refinery.

Or you could go old school and build something like this:

http://www.scvhistory.com/scvhistory/ap2926.htm

Which would be much less efficient but would be a useful precursor refinery (as you would need fuel for the oil wells, the railway, and refinery itself). And be able to aid local recovery.