On the role of Italian Armed Forces in Twilight

[Muti]

In my opinion the background idea of Italy abandoning NATO and fighting against other armies in quality of Warsaw Pact ally, is totally wrong.

Italy, at the time, had a real strong intention to gather with NATO especially for economic and political reasons. Italian policy was very well in line with NATO conduct and Italy also took part in several foreign military mission. We have also remember the presence of a very strong "stay behind" paramilitary formation called "Gladio" (from gladius, the famous ancient roman sword) active in Italy until the end of the Cold War.

I have to admit that Twilight is just a game and not real history of some kind of cold war gone hot, but reading something like that Italy signed a mutual defence pact with Greece promising military help without care of NATO and USA opinion... well, it makes me smile. Italy was very sensitive about her position and her role in the European Union and her alliance with USA and this important "way of thinking" is still active today.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by Muti

In my opinion the background idea of Italy abandoning NATO and fighting against other armies in quality of Warsaw Pact ally, is totally wrong.

Italy, at the time, had a real strong intention to gather with NATO especially for economic and political reasons. Italian policy was very well in line with NATO conduct and Italy also took part in several foreign military mission. We have also remember the presence of a very strong "stay behind" paramilitary formation called "Gladio" (from gladius, the famous ancient roman sword) active in Italy until the end of the Cold War.

I have to admit that Twilight is just a game and not real history of some kind of cold war gone hot, but reading something like that Italy signed a mutual defence pact with Greece promising military help without care of NATO and USA opinion... well, it makes me smile. Italy was very sensitive about her position and her role in the European Union and her alliance with USA and this important "way of thinking" is still active today.

Yes but somehow the game collapses and makes everyone chant USA! USA! USA! and 'murrika is raining cluster-bomb delivered big macs over a NATO-conquered Europe if you do this (so I'm led to believe).

[Muti]

I don't think the game collapse only for the presence of Italy in the NATO.

If we read the 2nd Edition timeline, the only important think that Italian Armed Forces did was to cross Tyrol and launch an offensive who took them until Munich. In my opinion this is quite impossible considering the logistical difficulties in invading a region like Austria before and then Southern Germany. Italian Army was more incisive on the defense and the northern sector was a real defensive position so why spend troops for a futile "blitzkrieg à l'italienne"? I think this was just a quick solution by the writers to bring more countries in the cauldrun on european front.

The alignment of Italy with Warsaw Pact is simply laughable but not for Greece, according to the political situation of that country.

We have also to rememberg that since the end of 80s the italian Partito Comunista was in crisis and on 1994 there was the affirmation of several right-wing parties pro-USA and pro-NATO.

[kota1342000]

Interesting Muti...are you also saying that Italy would probably also have stayed in NATO even if member nations were the aggressors? I had never questioned the game canon history here as I thought it did make sense; several nations that didn't want to have a third giant war in the same century saying "HEY! NO! GET BACK TO YOUR START LINES DAMMIT!"
So its good to hear from people around the world about opinions like yours, there are some things Ive changed from the game history, and now I think this calls for another change.

But Raketenjagdpanzer is right in some cases; mindless patriotism can get out of control and make the game pretty tedious. But most of the Players Ive had in the past few years tend to stay out of that rut in the road.

[Muti]

I speak only for the Italian side of the discussion. As you can imagine, my point of view is critical towards the official canon

I really don't know why the writers decided to make Italy quit the NATO and declare war to other countries in a frenzy like that of Mussolini during World War 2. Since the end of that war, the country is really peaceful and USA-centric. Italy received lot of financial resources from North America so a change of flag, even in Twilight, is not plausible.

During the 70s there was lot of social instability because of terrorism (Brigate Rosse, dunno if you know what I mean) but with the fall of Berlin Wall on 1989 the Partito Comunista Italiano collapsed itself in several other small parties giving lot of space to the right parties and the Socialist Party. The latter is a good example: the leader, Bettino Craix (who was also prime minister) was very critical of communism and he even pushed is favour of US president Reagan's positioning of Pershing missiles in Italy. The presence of US troops here, like in many other european countries, was very strong. Democrats of left governed Italy from 1994 until 2001 with different political coalitions but the idea behind them was alway eurocentric.

[Olefin]

I have the same feelings about Italy whole heartedly fighting against NATO as well and how it was portrayed in the game. If Italy had decided to fight she would have been much better served by just using her resources in the Med, not in some half assed attack into Southern Germany and Austria - especially considering how easy it is to defend the passes thru the Alps for any attack by NATO into Italy.

She would have been far better, if she had actually fought NATO, to just hang tight in the north, use her fleet to contest the central Med and Adriatic and take out Yugoslavia as a NATO ally. Thus she aids the Russians but not with a sudden thrust into Germany that doesnt do much but get a lot of her armed forces hit hard and burn up almost all her pre-war military supplies in the process.

And Muti brings out an important point as well - that much of Italy was right to far right and if anything would have joined NATO against the Russians and against any Italian government that tried to take Italy into a war against NATO.

A canon that mentions Italian units fighting other Italian units, fighting within Italy itself going on, or units changing sides and joining NATO is much more believable considering the actual situation of Italy, even if you do have her follow the path that is in the canon.

I think you can see a scenario like this in Going Home - where the Folgore MD has changed sides and is now heading home itself to fight the government that brought Italy into the war against NATO. Surely there had to be other units that did the same thing, not just in Yugoslavia but in Germany and Austria as well.

An Italian civil war caused by the government's decision to join against NATO would be a great addition to a player canon. And frankly if there ever is a rewrite of the old timeline it would be a very logical path for how things may have "actually" played out in Italy in the Twilight War.

Or you could have Italy join the war on NATO's side - but again now its the leftists who raise the banner of civil war and you have units fighting units again - and any Italian participation on NATO's side rapidly dwindles as units are called home to try to restore stability - especially as you could add Russian nuclear strikes against Italy instead of NATO ones as being why the govt cant handle the civil war without bringing most of its military home.

[Muti]

Olefin,

the idea of a civil war is good. In my alternative canon:

- Italy stay with NATO.
- After nuclear strikes, the italian central government is in crisis.
- Some times after a civil war starts between right and left activists; I imagine it like what happend from 1943 to 1945: in Northern Italy there was the Repubblica Sociale Italiana, a german puppet government with Mussolini as leader, in Southern Italy there was the official royal government supported by Allied.
- Actually (according to Twilight official timeline) the nation is still involved in a civil war and the central government is making efforts to solve the situation and start the reconstruction.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

It makes more sense to have a fractious Italy, divided three ways - Papal See, leftist Italy, rightist Italy, with the right having its hands full fighting the red factions, unable to give more than token support to NATO, with some incursions into S. Germany and Austria by the Red Italians instead of Italy throwing in wholly with the Pact.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I have a similar situation in my T2k canon (OLEFIN AVERT YOUR EYES) with Belgium: there's a core of Belgian citizens and the bulk of the military that want to stand with NATO, but the central government was destroyed when NATO HQ in Brussels was hit, so the whole nation is fractious. However enough of their armed forces remain as a force-in-being in Germany on the German/Belgian border, maintaining what security they can against French incursion there, looking longingly at their former homeland.

Once things stabilize in Europe by the 2010s Germany's long-term plan is to hopefully use the Belgian expats and their military to form a sort of freikorps to force the French out of Belgium and reclaim their homeland. This gives the Germans friendly access to whatever resources Belgium still has (undamaged seaports, etc.), and gives Belgium back to the Belgians, and gives the Germans a buffer zone between them and France at least partially.

[Muti]

Why bother about the Pope? His importance is very poor because his power is almost symbolic. In the civil war idea I'd like to think that the Pope is protected by right-wing parties, as you know the leftists don't care about the importance of the church.

Lot of people here in Italy are catholic, of course, but the Vatican don't have the resources to declare authority or independence.

In a plausible Twilight War, the Pope will stay in his Vatican and his presence will also be a guarantee to keep some kind of "moral order" and avoid the bombing of Rome. If Soviet or other countries will nuke Rome, what do you think of public opinion around the world? But, I accept that, if there'll be a nuclear escalation I don't know what can happen

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Oh I just figured having the Pope still being a stabilizing factor; more out of a sense of nostalgia and having the game be a modern reflection of all the terrible succession wars that swept through Europe through the dark and middle ages.

Plus the idea of the Swiss Guard forming a perimeter around Vatican City with...appropriated armored vehicles, anti-tank defenses and so forth is too fun of an image to not have in a game

[Muti]

The perimeter around Vatican City is not good for a defense, especially on the east. It will be the italian counterpart of the soviet assault on the Reichstag!

[James Langham]

A few random thoughts:

* while not inherently probable I like the obvious ore-war sides being changed, it makes the background distinctive

* stranger things happen in real life, obvious examples being a democracy fighting for the Axis in WW2 (Finland), the First Crusade reaching the Holy Land and immediately attacking their one Moslem ally and the fact that much British planning in the 1920s and 1930s was for a war with France.

* I think in the aftermath of the nuclear war, a "political" pope could care out quite a niche for himself (there are a few hints on how in the article I wrote).

* Depending on timeline, in v2.2, maybe with the left in disarray in Italy, a new charismatic leader emerges (maybe a former blacksmith who had a rivalry with the future pope...) and reunites the factions just as the coup occurs in Moscow. The now united left with (limited) external backing gains ground. Add a fractured right, perhaps because of a sex and/or corruption scandal or two, a well orchestrated left wing campaign regarding Gladio. Add in further distancing from NATO after it is found that British sophisticated bomb making equipment is in terrorist hands (stolen unashamedly from the BBC political comedy Yes Minister) and you could be left with a significantly more likely left wing government. V1.0 could be very similar, V2.0 might be more difficult.

* If we regard Italy as an ally of convenience with the Pact as has been suggested elsewhere then again plausibility increases. This would explain the lack of Yugoslavian involvement and the move north becomes more of a land grab.

* Consider that by the start of Italian involvement much of NATO's high tech stores have been used. Canon also makes it clear that the NATO response against the Italian attacks use very much the last troop reserves, moving many down from central and northern Germany. Despite the difficulty of attacking through the Alpine passes (compare WW1), I can see a quick strike against limited opposition breaking through quite quickly and only floundering as logistic difficulties (in particular as higher tech equipment is expended) run out.

[Olefin]

Italy as a whole hearted member of the PACT, with its forces attacking NATO as a united front, has always been one of the weakest parts of the canon. Italy has been a very fractious nation ever since Mussolini and there has been no leader of his type since WWII, one that could actually unite Italians behind him.

And the canon has no event that could make the left surge in Italy - at least not the V1 or V2.2 canon - possibly the MERC canon where the world's economy is in many ways collapsing and nation states are beginning to come apart.

There would be significant opposition to any war with NATO, especially a NATO that has shown it will use nuclear weapons (which Italy doesnt have). Thus the idea of a fractured Italy, where rightist elements break away and fight the left ones, with units either joining NATO against their fellow countrymen or marching home, much as the Folgore is by Going Home time, is one that is not only a much more realistic one but could also explain how Italy fades away by 1999 and its troops are leaving Yugoslavia to come home - i.e. they are too busy fighting each other to be fighting NATO anymore.

And the addition of one or two Italian brigades to NATO's OOB would not significantly change the balance of power.

By the way one thing that was overlooked by the writers was the Hungarian forces - you never hear much about them.

So how would you counterbalance the Italians joining NATO in the war against the Russians, which is the far more likely event, without junking canon?

One very possible answer - the Italian left carries out strikes and slowdowns and sabotage that hamstring the Italian war effort, destroying supplies and munitions before they can get to the troops, leaving the Italian forces that join NATO on the war fronts very badly supplied. Some units, infiltrated by leftists, turn on the govt and either cause a civil war or fight openly against NATO, possibly while stationed in Austria and southern Germany, forcing NATO to commit scarce resources against them. And you counterbalance any added Italian units to NATO's OOB by adding in the missing Hungarian units, who now invade Austria as well.

So you get exactly what the canon had, but with a twist that makes for a more believeable Italian model for the war. And adds even more fun for characters with the addition of Italian weapons and men to possibly character parties since there would be NATO participation by Italy.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

But Raketenjagdpanzer is right in some cases; mindless patriotism can get out of control and make the game pretty tedious. But most of the Players Ive had in the past few years tend to stay out of that rut in the road.

My comment was more denigrating the idea that for the game to "work" the west had to make these colossal bungles that make the game into misery tourism, which for my game is not something I enjoy.

[Muti]

But from 1987 until 1994 the main party was Democrazia Cristiana, a christian democratic party. From 1994 until 1996 it was Forza Italia, the liberal-conservative party led by Silvio Berlusconi.

As you surely know, Berlusconi is a politician, entrepreneur and media tycoon with a strong tendency to support USA foreign policu even if it divide the US and founding members of the European Union like France or Germany. The presence of Berlusconi in the political scenario since 1994 resulted in a rebalancing of relations between all Mediterranean countries. We have also to remember that Berlusconi was a solid ally of President Bush due to italian military support in Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

Here in Italy there was a political scandal with the discovery of a masonic lodge called "Propaganda 2" (P2) who aimed to change the country political system to a more authoritarian regime and the people who took part of this lodge included members of the secret services and personalities from policy, business, military and media, even Berlusconi. This lodge was dissolved in the end of 1981 but his secret political program was very similar to the political program of Berlusconi's party.

In my opinion, at the time of the Twilight War, the power of left parties was very poor. The idea of sabotage actions by left movements is weak because since the end of the left terrorist acts here in Italy after the 70s, the action of police forces and secret services are more effective and all those movements are nipped on birth at the point that we never had such internal terrorist actions from very long time.

About the involvment of Hungary, I'd like to publish soon a detailed order of battle. Nice idea!

[James Langham]

As a possible alternative history (based on 2.2):

* With the return of the Soviet hard liners a decision is made to damage NATO unity.

* Increased Soviet intelligence gathering identifies some of the later scandals earlier.

* A mix of blackmail and careful leaking collapses the government.

* Disillusioned with the right, the left sneaks in, probably as part of a coalition.

* With the start of the war, there are protests at the US bases demanding their removal.

* A demonstration turns violent and deaths occur when protesters break into the base and are shot by jumpy US troops who mistake them for Pact infiltrators.

* The Italian government protests.

* The US refuses to hand over the servicemen for trial.

* Amid this the left gains further support for the anti-US stance.

This should move the history to a point where canon is more viable.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by James Langham

This should move the history to a point where canon is more viable.

I find it plausible.

[Muti]

In 1998 there was an incident in a ski resort on the Dolomites. 20 people died because of USMC EA-6B Prowler who cut the cables of an aerial tramway. The aircraft was on a low altitude training mission. After that the italian court of Trento recognized that NATO treaties (London Agreement of 19 June 1951) gave jurisdiction to US military courts.

The pilot and the navigator were put on trial in the USA and found not guilty even if latter they were found guilty of obstruction of justice because they destroyed a videotape recording from the plane and so they were dismissed from USMC.

Anyway, this disaster strained the relations between US and Italy but nothing happened after... I also remember other "incidents" like that: the killing of a Major General of the SISMI (the italian military security and intelligence service) in 2005 in Iraq by a US Guardsman, for example, and the leftist parties asked for the retreat of italian troops from Iraq but, again, nothing happened...

[Olefin]

For Italy to move to the left enough to fully embrace a war against NATO, where units stay loyal until the whole world is on the point of collapse in 2000, would have to take a truly shattering event - i.e. on the scale of a US bomber with a nuke on board crashing into Italian soil and the nuke detonating or something else literally earth shaking.

Or the rise of a new Mussolini, but one who can somehow unite all the fractous leftist parts of Italy to where they can overpower the rightists.

[Muti]

Time permitting I'd like to write down a sourcebook on Italy in Twilight War according to canon so I'll accept the role of Italy in WARPAC but just to make the sourcebook useful for the players.