Jericho's target list as source material.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I realize that the idea of the Soviets of the Twilight:2000 history line using 20kt ground bursts on a mere 22 US cities is a bit absurd, but for the sake of conversation, I plugged the strike list, tonnage yield and other data into Nukemap, and pulled these numbers out regarding casualties:

Seattle - 71180/64530
San Francisco - 52480/146940
St. George - 8,200/11,930
Los Angeles - 59,910/83,780
San Diego - 45,470/33,120
Phoenix - 33,080/23,830
Denver - 62,010/55,270
Lawrence - 7,920/14,740
Houston - 77,380/41,780
Minneapolis - 64,700/64,860
Dallas - 36,550/42,610
Chicago - 184,840/125,580
Detroit - 39,280/30,020
Indianapolis - 44,250/29,520
Atlanta - 53,460/40,060
Miami - 34,610/35,670
Charlotte - 41,650/22,660
Hartford - 29,270/40,460
Boston - 117,800/103,480
Philadelphia - 133,790/116,260
Baltimore - 53,190/65,050
Washington, dc 96,870/123,250
Norfolk - 25,930/24,820

deaths: 1373820
injuries: 1340220

Nukemap doesn't have the granularity to tell us how many might die by dint of being 30 miles downrange in a particularly nasty fallout footprint, and so forth but if we take these back-of-the-envelope numbers to heart, and we consider that DC was the end of any national disaster recovery coordination (bye bye Civil Defense plans), I think we can tack 3/4ths of the "injuries" right onto the "deaths" list as well - initially.

[swaghauler]

Looks better than Twilight 2013's estimates. I always wondered why they said 20KT as the nominal yield for the nukes in game. I was Special Weapons in the Army Artillery, and the Nominal Yield of our 6" Nuclear Shell was 20KT. Most MIRVs carried warheads with a Nominal Yield of between 50KT and 100KT. The big ICBMs could be fitted with a warhead of 1 MegaTon Nominal Yield. Bursting a 1 MT Nominal Yield warhead in the stratosphere (between 30K feet and 40K feet) could also trigger a major EMP effect. This was tested during the Bikini Atoll testing and the EMP knocked out power 1500 miles away.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

Looks better than Twilight 2013's estimates. I always wondered why they said 20KT as the nominal yield for the nukes in game. I was Special Weapons in the Army Artillery, and the Nominal Yield of our 6" Nuclear Shell was 20KT. Most MIRVs carried warheads with a Nominal Yield of between 50KT and 100KT. The big ICBMs could be fitted with a warhead of 1 MegaTon Nominal Yield. Bursting a 1 MT Nominal Yield warhead in the stratosphere (between 30K feet and 40K feet) could also trigger a major EMP effect. This was tested during the Bikini Atoll testing and the EMP knocked out power 1500 miles away.

Oh no, no. I'm sorry, I phrased that badly, allow me to explain.

The nuclear weapons used in Jericho were 20kt theater weapons that had been in storage in ex-Soviet states and were bought up by the CIA to keep them out of the hands of terrorists (ironically). These would've been warheads put in FROG-7 or SCUD missiles, I'm guessing.

T2k mentions that (for example) Tampa was hit with a 1.5mt weapon at MacDill AFB. I think (THINK) in Howling Wilderness they only list cities hit by 1-megaton-and-up yields and leave smaller strikes to the imagination of the GM or later fleshing out. The module that concerns the Lima Tank Plant in Ohio mentions the city getting hit with something that would have come from an SS20 MIRV spread (4x 250mt).

If we increase the yield of the weapons in Jericho to 10-50 times the listed amount, the casualties would rise, seriously.

In fact, let's go do that with one target. On our list we see that Chicago suffers the most with 184840 dead and 125580 injured, so conservatively that's 255,000-280,000 dead.

Per nukemap:

Estimated fatalities: 613,970
Estimated injuries: 573,160

...from a 1.5 megaton groundburst, so a four-fold increase. If we roughly apply that across the board we wind up with 9-18 million dead, nationwide. As for Chicago... People in Winnetka suffer 2nd degree burns if they're in direct line without any cover. The power goes out in Milwaukee, and they probably suffer more than a few water main breaks if utilities are shared at all. The detonation is heard (and seen) as far away as Lake Geneva, anyone in Benton Harbor unfortunate enough to be looking West towards the now smoking crater that used to be Chicago is likely permanently blinded. I'm no expert on the subject but there may be a small tsunami since this is a groundburst; depends on how much the land soaks up. Since our hypothetical detonation is to take place as close to the city center as possible (the bombs in Jericho were trucked in), the explosion rolls out the relatively short distance to the lakeshore, a mere 1km (roughly) away: everything in the .92mi fireball is reduced to constituent atoms and pushed back away at roughly the speed of light before slowing down to a more dignified hypersonic pace. I'd guess that'd move some water via shock effect...

[swaghauler]

I cannot fault your stats. They are pretty accurate from what I know. I agree the real damage would occur in the aftermath. Events like Katrina have proven that.

I guess my big issue is with the idea of trucking in a nuke to any major city. Since 9/11, the Department of Homeland Security has significantly upgraded its electronic sensor grid. The majority of these upgrades were done on major transportation routes and involved radiation detectors. I pass at least 3 layers of these driving into Cleveland, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh on any major route. You don't even have to stop. They are tall, slim panels that can detect radiation as you pass them at highway speed. They are very common at scales and weigh stations. Getting through the border with a large radiation signature would be hard enough. driving from the border to any major city without encountering an electronic checkpoint would be a formidable task. This could be an interesting scenario though. Intercept the nuke before the Jihadists can detonate it after a weigh station notifies you about it. Call it "H***fire on wheels."

I think the planners would use a different approach. They could smuggle the weapons in through the desert from Mexico. They would then put the device on a small plane and fly it to the city. The pilot may not even know what he's carrying (thinking it heroine or cocaine). They would then airburst the weapon remotely, causing maximum damage. There would still be some issues. I saw an ADAM, Atomic Demolition, Man Portable (the so called "backpack" nuke) once in training. It was housed in a footlocker sized case and weighed north of 400lbs (like our old 6" nukes). Hardly a "backpack" nuke. A 20KT device smuggled in through Mexico would have to go by horse or be carried by like four to six people. The US may still detect it on the move. The Drug Cartels may not want to help. The Russians would be killing lots of the Cartel's best customers. Still this would be safer and faster than a "ground assault."

The second approach would involve commercial shipping or aviation hauling a larger device that would be detonated just before landing/docking. The planes or ships would have to originate from China, Russia, or Iran (or a client state) to avoid the various checks that most Western airports/seaports now have. Detection would be almost certain if the vessel or craft lingered in another port before hitting the target. Iran (or North Korea) would be the most likely user of this attack. Once again, the occupants of the aircraft/vessel may not even be aware of the device. This attack is so evil that it gives me shudders just bringing it up.

However the nukes end up being delivered; It will be very ugly.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

Call it "H***fire on wheels."

Are you censoring the word "hell"? That makes me LOL.

Originally Posted by swaghauler

I think the planners would use a different approach. They could smuggle the weapons in through the desert from Mexico. They would then put the device on a small plane and fly it to the city. The pilot may not even know what he's carrying (thinking it heroine or cocaine). They would then airburst the weapon remotely, causing maximum damage. There would still be some issues. I saw an ADAM, Atomic Demolition, Man Portable (the so called "backpack" nuke) once in training. It was housed in a footlocker sized case and weighed north of 400lbs (like our old 6" nukes). Hardly a "backpack" nuke. A 20KT device smuggled in through Mexico would have to go by horse or be carried by like four to six people. The US may still detect it on the move. The Drug Cartels may not want to help. The Russians would be killing lots of the Cartel's best customers. Still this would be safer and faster than a "ground assault."

Knowing a cargo's weight is important for a pilot, as is the placement of cargo for balancing and trimming purposes. The smaller the aircraft, the more important such considerations become. Heroin and cocaine are higher bulk, lower weight cargoes. A nuclear device is the opposite. If the pilot of a small aircraft didn't realize the mass of his cargo before takeoff, he sure would shortly afterwards.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Sadly we'll never know the full breadth and depth of the main plot of Jericho and how it was to unfold, but I'd wager that a lot of the "deployment" phase pre-strike was due to the fact that the manager of FEMA was in cahoots with the various groups setting the nukes off. Two were stopped; the one headed for Columbus because it was in Lennie James' hands, and the one destined for Manhattan was stopped because of post 9/11 preparedness.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

Sadly we'll never know the full breadth and depth of the main plot of Jericho and how it was to unfold

I was never really a fan but I am aware that there is a graphic novel for season 3 written by the original writers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho...n_3:_Civil_War WARNING LINK contains spoilers

Amazon Links
http://www.amazon.com/Jericho-Season.../dp/160010939X
http://www.amazon.com/Jericho-Season.../dp/1613776047


Apparently in issue 4 of the the season 3 comics we get

"a full account of the motives, methods, and betrayals that resulted in the destruction of twenty-three American cities"


Edit added spoiler warning and links to amazon. Aparently there is a season "4" as well.

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

Sadly we'll never know the full breadth and depth of the main plot of Jericho and how it was to unfold, but I'd wager that a lot of the "deployment" phase pre-strike was due to the fact that the manager of FEMA was in cahoots with the various groups setting the nukes off.

Which makes me giggle. FEMA's power to detect and interdict nukes is about the same as its ability to impose martial law and erect concentration camps for conservatives.

- C.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

Which makes me giggle. FEMA's power to detect and interdict nukes is about the same as its ability to impose martial law and erect concentration camps for conservatives.

- C.

FEMA is getting slightly smarter, when Katrina victims refused the Humanitarian meals, they dumped the lot for dehydrated meals. Of course Nukes have a higher learning curve......

[Tegyrius]

I'm not saying FEMA has the dumb. I work with some very smart guys out of Region IV. I'm just saying that nuke interdiction is not in their mission space. All the "shadow government" woo-woo from the nineties has disseminated a lot of misinformation about what the agency really does.

- C.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

I'm not saying FEMA has the dumb. I work with some very smart guys out of Region IV. I'm just saying that nuke interdiction is not in their mission space. All the "shadow government" woo-woo from the nineties has disseminated a lot of misinformation about what the agency really does.

- C.

People forgot it is an update to Civil Defense with disaster relief added to it's mission statement. And possibly cursed by Carter's "Gold to Lead" Midas touch.