Back to the end of Prime Base

[tsofian]

Some time ago I suggested that Prime Base was the victim of a contaminated batch of Smallpox Vaccine. There was some discussion of whether or not the Project would have detected the contamination (I had suggested a prion) and whether prions would even have been available in the late 1980s.

I have been looking for the Quality Assurance protocols for the vaccine and my wonderful, brilliant wife found this http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Biologi.../UCM078071.pdf. It is from 2002. It gives a clear indication that the testing that would have been done in the 1980s is pretty limited "Testing for anaerobes, coliforms,hemolytic streptococci and coagulasepositive
staphylococci, viable bacteria"

So I am going to back off the prions and instead suggest that the vaccine was purposefully contaminated with the rabies virus. None of the listed tests would have detected it. Rabies has a incubation period of 2 to 12 weeks. with as short as four days being possible. The disease can be treated post exposure if the rabies vaccine is given promptly enough, generally within ten days of exposure. Krell would have contaminated the smallpox vaccine with a strain of rabies that has a latency period that ensures few victims would show symptoms in time for the base to determine what was happening. Rabies is nearly 100% fatal if the post exposure treatment isn't given in the window, and before 2004 appears to have been invariably fatal.

[mmartin798]

Ultimately, we are going to have to use some handwavium to prevent Prime Base survivors. Biology is a tricky thing and regardless of infection type; virus, bacteria, prion, there is small percentage around 5% that will be immune or successfully fight it off. A CDC study showed about 2% of people in an area where bats are a common vector for rabies had rabies antibodies without having been vaccinated for it, most likely from being bit and fighting off the infection. So Prime Base would have, assuming 200 on staff, about 5 that survive the tainted vaccine. Some of them might be the ones killed in the fighting, but a random distribution would say it is likely at least one would have been safe and sound inside the base the whole time.

[.45cultist]

That's the trouble with knowing too much to do the "suspension of disbelief". It even causes passionate debates/arguments. What if the Warriors used a cocktail of multiple illnesses? Could one beat the 5% rule then? It might also strain the ready supplies to fight the symptoms as well as the pathogens themselves and overwhelm the medical bay.

[ArmySGT.]

Since the Soviet Union built whole cities around defense projects like nuclear warheads, rocketry, aircraft design, and biowarfare.....

An operative having a biowarfare weapon tailored to pass the immune response systems of 99.9999999 % of the human population is possible.

There is a damn good reason it is banned internationally.

A hostile agent within Prime Base released a biowarfare in one or more common areas, such as cafeterias. Bam, and done.

Heck, tag team them........ A Soviet sleeper agent with a mission to cripple the Morrow Project and Krell with a stolen or recovered aerial delivered nuke unwittingly cooperate and take Prime Base down.

[cosmicfish]

I keep coming back to the logical consequences of the takedown of PB. If it is via a new bioweapon, where else does this exist and how does it not doom the Project and/or humanity? If it is via something inserted into the PB supply chain, where else was it inserted, what does that mean for the Project, and why does that level of penetration not doom the Project in other ways? If the Russians are involved... oy vey.

I don't like the bioweapon, and I like it even less if it is introduced via contaminated vaccines. Problem 1 is that it requires some significant penetration into Morrow's structure by Krell, and that penetration should have wide-spread consequences throughout the game. Problem 2 is that the large variability in incubation and symptomatic times means that PB should either have overcome the problem or at least taken much better steps to account for their own demise.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

I keep coming back to the logical consequences of the takedown of PB. If it is via a new bioweapon, where else does this exist and how does it not doom the Project and/or humanity? If it is via something inserted into the PB supply chain, where else was it inserted, what does that mean for the Project, and why does that level of penetration not doom the Project in other ways? If the Russians are involved... oy vey.

I don't like the bioweapon, and I like it even less if it is introduced via contaminated vaccines. Problem 1 is that it requires some significant penetration into Morrow's structure by Krell, and that penetration should have wide-spread consequences throughout the game. Problem 2 is that the large variability in incubation and symptomatic times means that PB should either have overcome the problem or at least taken much better steps to account for their own demise.

Easy Peasy....... Several Biowarfare weapons are dropped on the U.S. in canon by Soviet missiles. The agent is Krell and carried the disease into Paiute Place doing the "Smallpox blankets" ploy; or an unwitting survivor that has taken a jacket or items from a car or tent from someone who has died.

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Easy Peasy....... Several Biowarfare weapons are dropped on the U.S. in canon by Soviet missiles. The agent is Krell and carried the disease into Paiute Place doing the "Smallpox blankets" ploy; or an unwitting survivor that has taken a jacket or items from a car or tent from someone who has died.

That takes care of problem 1 (as does the 3ed version of the story), but does nothing for problem 2 - there are no illnesses out there that will kill everyone, much less do so in a manner that simultaneously kills the Project.

Although now that you mention it, if bioweapons are being used on the US, why aren't there strict biowarfare protocols protecting PB? Considering the importance of the site, any people interacting with the outside world would either do so with protection or would be prevented from reentering the base until they were confirmed clean.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

That takes care of problem 1 (as does the 3ed version of the story), but does nothing for problem 2 - there are no illnesses out there that will kill everyone, much less do so in a manner that simultaneously kills the Project.

Biowarfare agents are not natural.... No one has a antibodies to counter the antigens...... the odds of that are even lower than the statistical probabilities for influenza or pneumonic plague. These are cultured to produce NO immune response because their is nothing similar in existance to activate the white memory blood cells in the lymphatic system.

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Biowarfare agents are not natural.... No one has a antibodies to counter the antigens...... the odds of that are even lower than the statistical probabilities for influenza or pneumonic plague. These are cultured to produce NO immune response because their is nothing similar in existance to activate the white memory blood cells in the lymphatic system.

Biowarfare agents are based off of natural illnesses, modified to make them more effective as weapons (which is not always the same as "make them more lethal"). There are no bioweapons out there that are completely artificial, and even if there were the wide variety of human biology would still produce some percentage who either survived or took a very long time to die.

And if you are hypothesizing a new bioweapon that really does have these characteristics, who developed it, and why, and how are the teams waking up to anything but a barren wasteland devoid of human life?

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

Biowarfare agents are based off of natural illnesses, modified to make them more effective as weapons (which is not always the same as "make them more lethal"). There are no bioweapons out there that are completely artificial, and even if there were the wide variety of human biology would still produce some percentage who either survived or took a very long time to die.

I doubt Ft. Detrick and the multiple Soviet equivalents are advertising what is on the menu. They created new virii from those that are not normally infectious to Sapiens. Humans do not have antibodies because we have never needed them.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

And if you are hypothesizing a new bioweapon that really does have these characteristics, who developed it, and why, and how are the teams waking up to anything but a barren wasteland devoid of human life?

Because like most that are exceedingly lethal they kill before the virus has spread onto another population. The same way that a hemorrhagic fever kills 99% of a village and doesn't get to the next two miles down the road. No hosts.

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

I doubt Ft. Detrick and the multiple Soviet equivalents are advertising what is on the menu.

In which case you are proposing this as part of the overall global biowarfare programs being enacted, correct? How does this influence the overall impact of the war, and what is still going on 150 years later? What would be the result of global powers with a 100% lethal bioweapon and an apparent willingness to use it? I think you are talking about a massive change to the game, TMP meets The Stand.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

They created new virii from those that are not normally infectious to Sapiens. Humans do not have antibodies because we have never needed them.

This may come as a surprise, but some people produce brand new antibodies to any given illness. Variations in the illness and the individual means that nothing is ever 100% lethal because some percentage develop antibodies even when none yet exist, especially when you add in modern medical care, or even better, Morrow medical care.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Because like most that are exceedingly lethal they kill before the virus has spread onto another population. The same way that a hemorrhagic fever kills 99% of a village and doesn't get to the next two miles down the road. No hosts.

You are applying third world epidemiology to a first world nation. Hemorrhagic fever kills so many and never gets down the road because their medical care is terrible (which is why so many die) and because they quarantine the village (which stops the spread). And even in the kind of scenario you describe it still takes weeks or months to kill everyone whom it is going to kill.

If you want to propose a new illness, describe it in detail. Let's look at it like we would with any other weapon, with actual numbers and our best cut at real science, and see if it holds up. If someone proposed a hypothetical rifle that would shoot through a tank and fit in your pocket, we would dissect it in detail and talk about how it changes everything, let's do that here.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

In which case you are proposing this as part of the overall global biowarfare programs being enacted, correct? How does this influence the overall impact of the war, and what is still going on 150 years later? What would be the result of global powers with a 100% lethal bioweapon and an apparent willingness to use it? I think you are talking about a massive change to the game, TMP meets The Stand.

No change to the game at all. 95% of the worlds population on 18 November, 1989 dies.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

This may come as a surprise, but some people produce brand new antibodies to any given illness. Variations in the illness and the individual means that nothing is ever 100% lethal because some percentage develop antibodies even when none yet exist, especially when you add in modern medical care, or even better, Morrow medical care.

I am taking medical courses for certification as a Radiological Technician. I have taken the sophmore anatomy and physiology courses. I am aware of antibodies/antigens, and self/non-self. Something that presents to a memory cell or macrophage has to be recognized, if a body has no recognition due to inheritance or immunization the immune system fails to recognize and does not mount a response. Other systems produce some response typically pyrogens are released and we have a fever, histamines are released locally and globally to counter inflammation, the kidneys and especially the liver are stimulated to remove toxins or purge salts and urea. Another response is that macrophages (activated white blood cells) trigger cell death in a malfunctioning cell, this is a normal function of the body.

The body does "learn" however, this takes days and not hours. If a virus is replicating faster than the immune response the host dies.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

You are applying third world epidemiology to a first world nation. Hemorrhagic fever kills so many and never gets down the road because their medical care is terrible (which is why so many die) and because they quarantine the village (which stops the spread). And even in the kind of scenario you describe it still takes weeks or months to kill everyone whom it is going to kill.

Yes, I am..... because the state of world is even less than that in the days, weeks, months, and first years post nuclear exchange.... First world anything is dead and the carcass only to be scavenged.

Ebola and other hemorrhagic fevers are nightmarish on their own, however the are naturally occuring and made the jump from simians to sapiens. An artificial is made by combination and extraction limiting the antigens or presenting apparently harmless antigens to the memory cells antibodies. This produces no response or spoofs the memory cells so that no response is generated until the runaway train of cytotoxins causes septicemia.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

If you want to propose a new illness, describe it in detail. Let's look at it like we would with any other weapon, with actual numbers and our best cut at real science, and see if it holds up. If someone proposed a hypothetical rifle that would shoot through a tank and fit in your pocket, we would dissect it in detail and talk about how it changes everything, let's do that here.

I don't have my copy of "the little book of death" which describes real world diseases world wide... It is an interesting read.... I got it at B&N.

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

No change to the game at all. 95% of the worlds population on 18 November, 1989 dies.

That was without assuming that a super-disease that is completely fatal is released into the world. Are you presuming that the addition of this weapon is inconsequential to the plethora of nukes and other weapons already canonically being deployed, or are you presuming that this weapon would be deployed in place of those other weapons while still achieving an identical result? Because those are the options I see and I do not see either of them as realistic.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

The body does "learn" however, this takes days and not hours. If a virus is replicating faster than the immune response the host dies.

So you are supposing that this superbug is completely untreatable and perfectly contagious and kills 100% on the order of hours? That is a quantum leap in biological weapons technology, it like assuming that the US SDI secretly produced a functioning Death Star. How do you even deploy such a thing, and who is your target? And why would you, since any deployment is likely to be turned back on yourself?

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Yes, I am..... because the state of world is even less than that in the days, weeks, months, and first years post nuclear exchange.... First world anything is dead and the carcass only to be scavenged.

On the broad scale, no, post-apocalypse US is not less than the third world, it would be a unique situation with a different understanding of disease control while still having better access to medical knowledge and materials. If the survivors are not able to contain this superbug then it should spread across the US like wildfire before spreading to the rest of the world. If the survivors ARE able to... then why can't Prime Base? Prime Base at the time when the weapon would be used on it is far more advanced than the contemporary US - that is and always has been one of the foundational concepts of the game. This is a weapon that you are proposing take down the one facility in the world that should be the absolutely best prepared to weather such an attack - it has a complete environmental seal, an absurdly advanced medical capability, and the absolute knowledge that biological weapons exist and are likely to have been deployed.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Ebola and other hemorrhagic fevers are nightmarish on their own, however the are naturally occuring and made the jump from simians to sapiens. An artificial is made by combination and extraction limiting the antigens or presenting apparently harmless antigens to the memory cells antibodies. This produces no response or spoofs the memory cells so that no response is generated until the runaway train of cytotoxins causes septicemia.

And yet those diseases are limited by an array of factors that limit them as ordinary diseases, much less biological weapons. You are suggesting that someone could genetically engineer a superbug essentially from scratch, and if either state had that capability then what other superbugs are out there? Screw nukes, we're custom ordering diseases with whatever effects we want!

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

I don't have my copy of "the little book of death" which describes real world diseases world wide... It is an interesting read.... I got it at B&N.

When you get it, let me know, I would be very interested to do the math on this one.

[tsofian]

Originally Posted by mmartin798

Ultimately, we are going to have to use some handwavium to prevent Prime Base survivors. Biology is a tricky thing and regardless of infection type; virus, bacteria, prion, there is small percentage around 5% that will be immune or successfully fight it off. A CDC study showed about 2% of people in an area where bats are a common vector for rabies had rabies antibodies without having been vaccinated for it, most likely from being bit and fighting off the infection. So Prime Base would have, assuming 200 on staff, about 5 that survive the tainted vaccine. Some of them might be the ones killed in the fighting, but a random distribution would say it is likely at least one would have been safe and sound inside the base the whole time.

I looked up that study. It was a tiny population in Peru that had long and repeated exposure to vampire bats.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...es_immune.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-8008576.html

I'm entirely willing to say that in my MP Prime Base had no one from the two tiny Peruvian villages. So no worries.