Rebuilding America: Industry Priorities

[kalos72]

So reading through the GPS/Satellite conversation I realized that maybe my campaigns "outlook" on industry and what we would or would not be able to reproduce might be off.

I read back through my original rule book for MP and tried to see if they indicated a priority the teams would use to rebuild the country.

Obviously basic food/water/shelter/security would be the most basic...

But after that, assume a town/region organizes and gets those basics covered, whats next?

And perhaps those are still in progress but that wont mean people cant multitask right? Yes, security might always be a risk but it wont mean you dont try and secure a source of iron to get some craftsmen going to replace tractor parts or something.

My campaign is Texas. Simultaneously, my group is working oil production and refining, coal mining, salt mining, concrete production, etc...

If you had to give your top 10 list of specific industries your group would focus on, what would they be?

[bobcat]

depending on the size and resources of the area:

1. Chemical production
2. Metal refining/production
3. Salt mining
4. Fuel production
5. Medicine production
6. Arms manufacture
7. Coffee/Tea substitute
8. Machinery production
9. Agricultural cash crops
10. Vehicle production

obviously trade would be important for any of these and some of these are specifically for supporting trade. you can even bypass some of these if you have neighbors willing to trade some of their production for something you have a better supply of.

[RN7]

1) Clean Water Supply
2) Food Production
3) Electricity Production
4) Fuel Production
5) Sanitation
6) Machinery and Tool Production
7) Ammunition Production
8) Long Range Radio
9) Metals
10) Chemicals/Salt

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'm pretty much in agreement with RN7 except that I'd place sanitation at position 3.

For most of us in the Western world, we are so used to clean water that any minor contaminants quickly make us sick. Sick people might only be ill for a few days or a week from bad water but that's days when they can't work and somebody has to care for them (so you're losing two people from the potential workforce).
Therefore I'd argue that clean water should always be priority number one but to keep it there, sanitation should be pretty high on the priority list as well.

Crops can grow with dirty water, some farm animals can deal with dirty water but put a dead sheep in the water supply and us Westerners will be getting the "stomach rumbles" in pretty short order.

[kalos72]

I put clean usable water and a decent food supply as top priorities for sure. But I honestly dont see food/water as being too hard to come by if your not going with the Howling Wilderness version of a dead America. Yes it would take effort and organization but it wouldn't be some Herculean effort...in my world anyways.

Fuel because you cant clear your land of marauders and Mexicans if you dont have fuel to run your Army on.

Coal for power, steam power, heating fuel, metal refining/forging.

Salt for food preservation primarily.

Concrete, block or brick production for new building construction.

Electronics repair/long range radio comms would probably be next. I do have two nuclear plants in my region after all.

Then ammo/weapon production to keep the Army "fed" if you will.

I do think it will be possible to keep modern aircraft flying, taking it to a one by one manufacturing process or perhaps like the DC Groups work on "US Recovery Plan" where you make two of each item to start to built a stock.

But I do like the idea of starting to build new P-51's and Flying Boxcar tech level airplanes like KFS did in the MP.

Railway clear/maintenance and repair.

Sailing Ship construction for world trade and exploration.

And all the while, Salvage. The world will have tons and tons of it...you just have to be the first to get at it.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Food? Maybe not.
But I think clean water for drinking and cooking will be much harder to come by. For several generations most Westerners have grown up with water from either a mains water supply or from bottled mineral/spring water. Once the supply stops, many people won't know where to look to replenish their supply.
Once the mains water supply stops due to lack of personnel, damaged infrastructure, lack of power etc. etc., most city folk are going to stress about where to get more.

While digging a well is (relatively) easy enough, most city folk don't know the first thing about where to dig a well or how to do even rudimentary cleaning of water other than boiling it. Now boiling is going to take care of a lot of the nasties in water but most individuals will never be able to clean large quantities in a short period of time, certainly not enough to keep a small community going at anything more than a subsistence level or water production.

[kalos72]

While I agree its a concern, there are many ways to provide clean water for a community.

If you have a fuel source, oil, coal, wood, methane, NG, you can run a simple desalination plant or just boil fresh water to clean it. If you have any chemical production chlorine will do wonderfully.

Rain catchment is also going to be a normal thing.

Simple sand bio filters would be common place as well. Plus some simple charcoal production and your set...



Today water is "hard to get" because there are 1000 laws and regulations about the process. If you simplify it to just, safe to drink, its much easier.

All that said, it would require an organized and intelligent central group/body to guide that development as the common person wont know about those methods much less to scale.

[bobcat]

remember this is after food, clean water, and some security are provided per the OP. now i did forget a few key concerns so allow me to adjust my list.

1. Chemical/Salt production
2. Metal refining/production
3. Fuel production
4. Electricity production
5. Medicine production/Sanitation
6. Arms manufacture
7. Coffee/Tea substitute
8. Machinery production
9. Agricultural cash crops
10. Trade/Commerce Infrastructure

[kalos72]

One question I have always had on the electricity, would you want to rebuild the typical "grid" type electrical infrastructure or perhaps something more local?

My guys seem to think the "grid" thing is probably too much to deal with and would want local power generation and distribution. Even to the point of each home generating its own by various methods.

Perhaps a local county seat with a decent size generating facility and power distribution from there.

[bobcat]

with Morrow Project my guys normally keep it local but build in the ability to become a bigger grid. after all that watermill power plant in Bobcatsville isn't going to meet everyone's needs by itself.

[kalos72]

Mt group seems to lead towards a new county level organization as a primary structure. Government, LE, militia, food/water supply all provided or at least organized by a county government first.

County has to be able to support its own population otherwise, people are moved around. There should be NO dependence on food from another region. Not able to grow enough food in your county, dont live there.

Each County, must be able to build and support a full size active duty rifle company with a support platoon, medical platoon and engineering platoon.

Based on the County’s population, some might be required to add more rifle companies to meet minimal security needs, typically 1 additional active duty rifle company to every 5000 people located in the County.

County populations are limited to the number of people the County can safely and effectively support. Food, water and security are required to effectively support a happy population.

A County can “officially” sustain 1000 people per “County Farms” they can establish - similar to the TMP Manor program - i.e. 25000 people would require the County to establish and maintain 25 working “County Farms”. A "County Farm" being something around 1 square mile in size.

[TrailerParkJawa]

I think about this every know and then. What do you get started on first? It ends up being a mind boggling enterprise. Modern society has an incredibly complex supply chain. Out here in Silicon Valley where it doesn't rain 8 months of the year getting water flowing from the reservoir systems is mandatory in my opinion if your going to support anything over a tiny population. So that means you also need power to work all the pumps, gates, etc. Power is going to need coal or gas which isn't located in Silicon Valley (assuming we use a local water supply). So moving coal probably needs a functioning railroad. See where this is going? Everything is so intertwined.

[kalos72]

Too true, I tend to get bogged down in the details myself.

But then you are going with a continuation of a community's dependency on a public utility system? Not trying to make each town/community more independent by digging wells, setting up rain water catchment and then creating a water filtration system to clean it?

On a larger scale, the dependence on these larger utility systems is, IMHO, the reason something like T2K could cause so much chaos in the first place. Loss of the power grid, public water and grocery store killed whatever was left after the bombs fell.

We are working on a "county model" that would help guide a community back from the chaos...

[mikeo80]

IMHO, It really depends on where your game is based. That will tell you what kind of raw materials might be available.

In my games, The priorities have been.

Water
Food
Medical
Shelter
Security

My $0.02

Mike

[WallShadow]

In parallel to the _needs_ of the community, it is essential to inventory its assets, physical and knowledge-based. What natural resources, remaining industrial capacities, raw materials, energy/fuel supplies, trained technicians and skilled mechanics can you find to implement your area's recovery?
And a third factor, implementation/administration, will decide how efficiently you match up your resources with your needs.

[kalos72]

Skills are the most important part actually...great point.

Texas has alot of the base raw materials, its just that by 2000 most of the locals aren't US citizens much less trained skilled workers.

But outside of that, there must at some time come the conversation about where I can secure other resources needed for the industry you want to build.

If you need coal, where is it or who can I get it from?

[TrailerParkJawa]

I keep wondering about the nuclear strikes on the oil refineries. The death toll among employees on site when they are hit is probably 100%. However, I've wondered if after the Thanksgiving Massacre who would actually show up to work? In any industry? Once the first refinery is hit a few days after TDM I bet absenteeism at the refineries is pretty high.

So that means people with those skills might still be out there but just scattered to the winds

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by TrailerParkJawa

Once the first refinery is hit a few days after TDM I bet absenteeism at the refineries is pretty high.

And very likely to stay that way. At first because of the risk of further strikes, later as the workers struggle to feed themselves and their families while fighting off others who want what little they may have.

Originally Posted by TrailerParkJawa

So that means people with those skills might still be out there but just scattered to the winds

A few, probably, but starvation, disease, fallout, and outright murder (as mentioned above) would take care of a large percentage. Many, if not most modern people don't have the necessary survival skills to manage after the break down of society and it's support networks.

[TrailerParkJawa]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

A few, probably, but starvation, disease, fallout, and outright murder (as mentioned above) would take care of a large percentage. Many, if not most modern people don't have the necessary survival skills to manage after the break down of society and it's support networks.

Agreed, and i believe it's gotten worse in the decades since T2K was written. At least back then there were still some grandparents around that had some old fashion skills they could pass on.

[Raellus]

Food and clean water are definitely 1 and 2. Nearly every American gets 100% of their food from a grocery store. Even if a HW scenario didn't take place, the damage to the country's transportation infrastructure (and fuel production/distribution) would mean most of the country would go hungry- not necessarily starve to death, although some undoubtedly would, but the majority of the surviving population would not be getting their daily minimum calorie intake. Yeah, the food is there, but is it getting to consumers? That puts fuel at #3.

[kalos72]

But if you think about it, the survivors have been going at this new world for 2-3 years now. Anyone who's around say in Texas in late 2000 early 2001 will have the basic necessary skills to survive. Food water, shelter style at least.

This topic is what happens moving past that really.

At some point, some strongman whose community has enough food and water for their needs is going to say "Damn it would be nice to get some power for that machine shop in town. I wonder if we can get us some coal..."

Any community that has made it into the timeline of the US based modules is past the basic need to eat and drink water. No?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by kalos72

Any community that has made it into the timeline of the US based modules is past the basic need to eat and drink water. No?

A fair point. I guess that I haven't thought too far past that phase, at least as far as CONUS scenarios go. My bad.

It's not an industry, per se, but how about a functioning currency system? I think that we all agree that barter would be the most form of exchange c.2000, but that won't work for long on a large scale. All that other stuff on the list is going to need to be paid for, unless the U.S. has devolved to a command economy (hard to imagine when the seminal WWIII was against communism), so you're going to need a currency system that all the actors are going to accept, or at least recognize. Does the dollar still work c.2000, what with the Civ/MilGov split and all that?

-

[kalos72]

great point.

My team is working on an oil backed currency, since east Texas has large amounts of oil. Haven't worked out the details though...

Might just be a "chit" type thing that good for IDK 10 gallons of crude or 5 of a refined product or something.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kalos72

But if you think about it, the survivors have been going at this new world for 2-3 years now. Anyone who's around say in Texas in late 2000 early 2001 will have the basic necessary skills to survive. Food water, shelter style at least.

This topic is what happens moving past that really.

At some point, some strongman whose community has enough food and water for their needs is going to say "Damn it would be nice to get some power for that machine shop in town. I wonder if we can get us some coal..."

Any community that has made it into the timeline of the US based modules is past the basic need to eat and drink water. No?

Yes and no. Can't fault your logic, but you're talking about individuals or small groups. This discussion is about much larger groups. It's like the difference between hunter-gatherer societies and agrarian societies. Once you have larger numbers of people living in larger, fixed communities everything changes. Just for starters, that's when you get specialisation. Same with climbing back up from the apocalypse. Instead of each family spending most of their time just surviving, now you've got people assigned to specific jobs. That means they need someone else to be doing the leg work to feed them and water them while they do something else.

I suspect this is what Raellus is talking about. Feeding one family and finding enough water to get by is a completely different situation to supplying drinking water and irrigation water and sanitation and decent quality food to entire communities. That's a seriously big task, and it will make or break larger settlements and groups of settlements. So yes, as you say eventually they're going to start thinking about power for the machine shop, but reliable, safe water and food supplies will always be the most important things.

[Bullet Magnet]

Now I'm thnking, it might not be a bad idea to work out what might be the priorities on like a timetable basis. By that I mean listing out what people would most likely prioritize at various stages after the "event".

Like in that first year after, as people have already said, food, clean water, and defense would be the primary things on people's minds.

Then, moving on, we can get to the two to three years after, as kalos brought up. Then, maybe 5 years, going up to ten years after, by which time the war should be over and the government would be trying to reassert authority.

As always, just a thought I had, after reading the newest posts tonight.

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Raellus

A fair point. I guess that I haven't thought too far past that phase, at least as far as CONUS scenarios go. My bad.

It's not an industry, per se, but how about a functioning currency system? I think that we all agree that barter would be the most form of exchange c.2000, but that won't work for long on a large scale. All that other stuff on the list is going to need to be paid for, unless the U.S. has devolved to a command economy (hard to imagine when the seminal WWIII was against communism), so you're going to need a currency system that all the actors are going to accept, or at least recognize. Does the dollar still work c.2000, what with the Civ/MilGov split and all that?

-

I would argue that someone's going to start printing money, if it isn't a government, it will be a bank. This popped up in my mailbox yesterday:
http://www.delanceyplace.com/view-archives.php?p=2987
During one of the many Panics before the Federal Reserve, some banks started giving each other IOUs, so they could give cash to their depositors, and these notes started moving into general circulation anyway. My guess is that some state or local governments will get together with their local banks to work out some kind of arrangement.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by kalos72

great point.

My team is working on an oil backed currency, since east Texas has large amounts of oil. Haven't worked out the details though...

Might just be a "chit" type thing that good for IDK 10 gallons of crude or 5 of a refined product or something.

See if you can get a copy of The Texas Israeli War - 1999

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Te...aeli_War:_1999

I have the book myself - its mentions Texas currency - if I remember John Wayne is on one of the bills

[unkated]

It seems to me that once immediate concerns for food and water are met, the next steps divide into a two level effort, especially if there is some form of regional governance.

1. Communities building things for their immediate need and use, such as power production and creation of building materials. Specific communities will be limited to producing what is locally available in the way of raw materials and manufacturing facilities. While you can get a workshop-sized operation up and running fairly easily almost anywhere, scaling that up to industrial output takes time and resources to build the facility, and other skills to operate it.

I agree that fuel will be an early need - without fuel, goods or components cannot be moved very far (for example, moving grown cotton to a gin and weaving mill to turn it into cloth, and then move it further to a clothing factory. Fuel will be needed and wanted both locally and as a commodity for use across the broader area. While many communities may be able to expand food production enough to spare some for alcohol production, having an oil well or two is not an option for most locations.



2. To make this bootstrapping effort somewhat faster, some amount of coordination between communities may be helpful. For example, in the clothing example above, the location with the cotton gin will be told to put it into operation; nearby farming areas may be told (that if they want to have clothes) to grow cotton with any land beyond immediate need food production; a town next to the one with the gin might be told to build a weaving mill (because Central knows it will be next to a cotton gin), and the town next to that one will be told to set up a clothing factory (or the whole chain could be set up in one larger town). My point is that to set up these more complex production chains efficiently, they will need to be planned.

And items NOT built in region 1 because they set up this chain will need to be provided by another region.

The planner can be a government or an entrepreneur, but I'll suggest that a government, able to use both a carrot and a stick, will set this up quicker by imposition than an entrepreneur trying to set it up just on his own.

Uncle Ted

[kalos72]

Originally Posted by Olefin

See if you can get a copy of The Texas Israeli War - 1999

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Te...aeli_War:_1999

I have the book myself - its mentions Texas currency - if I remember John Wayne is on one of the bills

Great suggestion! Never heard of it before to be honest.

I also would love to go through the Traveller world I think, to see how the US become a 2nd world power or whatever. But I cant find one source, it looks like its all spread out over different modules and guides and what not.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kalos72

I also would love to go through the Traveller world I think, to see how the US become a 2nd world power or whatever. But I cant find one source, it looks like its all spread out over different modules and guides and what not.

Traveller:2300. And there's a fairly detailed timeline in the basic rules set. France is the pre-eminent power in 2300, but not to the same extent that the RL USA is today. In 2300 the US isn't far behind France, and as far as it's interstellar holdings and space forces go it's in a long-term alliance with Australia and combined they're a force to be reckoned with. Then there's Manchuria, and the various German states which aren't one unified Germany but act closely together. And I think the successor state to South Africa is pretty powerful too. In the T:2300 universe a lot of a nation or alliance's power comes down to how much Tantalum it has access to. Tantalum is a fictitious mineral crucial to the manufacture of FTL stutterwarp drives.