Population needed for technology levels.

[kato13]

The ammo reloading thread has brought this thought into my head once again. We all know that agricultural surplus can lead to members of a population being allowed to specialize. And increased specialization allows for the manufacture of increasingly complex goods.

For many years I have been wondering what minimum population levels would be necessary to produce and maintain a historical technology level. My thought would be that if a population could produce 90% what was manufactured and commonly available within a specific historical timeframe that would be considered the level they could reproduce. I am not saying that they would need to produce all items just that it would be possible within a year or so. I am assuming access to raw materials, knowledge of the technology, and the basic infrastructure and tools required.

Could an adult population of 250 reproduce most 1790s products from scratch? Could a population of 5000 match the 1850s? The numbers after this point would seem to shoot up in my opinion, as rail lines and the industrial revolution force interdependency, but this is mitigated by increased agricultural efficiency. Considering all that is available in the early 1900s (Cars, airplanes, light bulbs, generators, everything in the sears catalog, etc) a population of at least 250,000 seems reasonable. Cuba's population of 11 million, to me feels like it could produce and maintain a technology of the late 60s if it was isolated.

Of course with tremendous effort a small population could produce i a few items of a vastly higher technological level but I am concerned with the general technology levels.

Does anyone know or any research or discussion on this topic, or does anyone have any opinions they would wish to share. Don't worry if my numbers seem wrong to you, I have wrestled with these numbers for a long time and find myself shifting in both directions all the time.

[kalos72]

Well I am thinking its a couple of things...

One would be location. 20000 people living off the coast of Maine arent going to have the skills or equipment to build anything too sophisticated unless some effort was spend to locate, secure and transport that type of equipment back home.

Two is population - Yes the more people you have the more assumed free manpower for added projects or industries. But it also means more headaches in trying to feed/shelter and secure those people as well. A small well trained camp of the right people could make the same products, just less of them.

Training is something that either situation will need to invest in I think.

[jester]

So many factors;

Resources and such. The cool thing about infrastructure is, it is labor and resource intensive in the short term, but once in place it takes relativly few to run it and maintain it. <proper maintennce is important though.>

The raw materials, turning into materials that then can be turned into a finish product. That is where alot of the population will be used. The whole chain of events that takes the ore from the ground, transports it, processes it <and gathering the resources to process it, coal, coke, wood etc> and then to turn it into iron and from there into the actual product to be used. That is where the numbers are needed.

And of course having all of the assets within your region is key. But, once those are in place it takes realtivly few miners to pull it from the ground.

And then, few to man the machinery, fewer if its automated. And automatiion can come not just woth modern electrical power, but also water power. If you have a water way localy, you can make a mill to grind your ore for processing making it easier to turn into metal.

And you can as is mentioned in many of the adventures, mom and pop production in garage workshops. That is the cool thing, we have the technology that is advanced to do things quicker and easier, and we have the knowledge that is advanced so we do not have to relearn it.

Thus, a small machineshup in the size of someones two car garage could turn out a decent production capacity with say, a hydraulic press <a modified press from Harbor Freind Tools> set it up with the propper dies and you are in buisness.

I could see for instance a machineshop turning out a couple dozen AR-18s a day, and thus in my T2K world in the US AR-18s are quite common as are MAC-11s and 10s, since both use mostly stamped parts in their construction.

I can see a society depending on the resources and talent available returning to at least WWII level of technology in short order if they are well organized and have the assets available to them, as well as being left unmolested.

Of course first things being first they would need to provide the basics, those being food and shelter. Those would be the first things, as well as a good water supply as well. This again depending on the skill of the group could take up to 3 years or as little as one.

[kato13]

The dependencies is what is going to get you for a small population. A small population might be able to make a few automotive engines, but not rubber tires, glass windows, batteries, spark plugs, oil/air filters, axles, break pads, transmissions, etc so therefore, unless they continually retool to make all such items, a car would be impossible.

Of course in t2k much would be recycled, but I am considering new production as that will be the long term goal of any major power. The relics of the past wont last forever and sustainable replacements should be a priority.

[Webstral]

I have wrestled with the question of what goods can be produced in the post-Exchange world a good deal for “Thunder Empire�. I can’t say that I have come to any firm conclusions. However, it seems to me that there are several variables, which I will attempt to address below.
How many people are available for activities other than subsistence agriculture? Obviously, it’s impossible to completely isolate any locale, but by 2000 a lot of places are pretty darned isolated. SAMAD (Southern Arizona Military Administrative District) is pretty much out-of-contact with the wider world. News comes in through Huachuca’s LRS, and the occasional group of refugees comes in. A few Mexican troops and marauders are periodically captured. There is radio contact with limited portions of the outside world. However, MilGov hasn’t had anything useful to say since the end of 1998. There is no trade to speak of with the outside world. Lack of trade is one of the looming problems hanging over the success of SAMAD in early 2001.

Getting back to the availability of labor, the number of people still alive has to be multiplied by the percentage of the work force dedicated to growing or acquiring food. In some locations, this number might be relatively favorable. Colorado might only have to devote a third of its labor force to food production, given that the eastern part of the state has an existing and extensive agricultural base that can be provided with fossil fuels from the Wyoming wells. (My estimate of a third is a guess, at best. Obviously, more people are going to be required for food production because the pre-Exchange specialized agricultural system is gone. Vegetables and other necessities will have to be grown by more labor-intensive methods, I think.) On the other hand, in some locations virtually everybody will have to be involved in getting enough to eat.

The State of Vermont cantonment, the United Communities of Southern Vermont (UCSV), the State of New Hampshire cantonment based at Manchester, the Nashua dictatorship, the Shire of Keene, and the territory controlled by the 43rd MP Brigade in western Massachusetts had fairly similar ratios of food producers to non-food producers in 1999. In all of these locations, pre-Exchange food production was limited. The Vermont government enjoyed a modest head-start over its neighbors in that a strong dairy industry resulted in a fairly strong agricultural base in the west-central part of the state to provide the cattle with feed. As a result, Vermont was able to make the transition to food self-sufficiency at a higher level of productivity than its neighbors. Nevertheless, the generally lower quality of Vermont’s soil vis-ÃÂ*-vis the eastern Colorado soil has prevented the State of Vermont from reaching the same per-capita level of productivity. About half of Vermont’s population is directly engaged in food production. Sixty to seventy percent of the population is engaged in feeding itself in the neighboring areas.

Along the coast of New England are two entities with significantly more favorable ratios of food producers to non-producers. Both the 1st District (USCG) and the United Brotherhood of Fishermen (UBF) have the right mix of fishing expertise, nautical know-how, and firepower to secure substantial harvests of fish and other seafood. A relative handful of fishermen can provide large numbers of calories. However, in both locations there remains a major need for vegetable gardening during the growing season.

SAMAD began 1999 with a highly unfavorable ratio of food producers to non-producers. The nature of the land and the water supplies dictated an extremely labor-intensive approach to agriculture. The civilian population of SAMAD was able to feed itself using very small parcels of land and surprisingly little water. The chief drawback of the methods used by SAMAD was the amount of labor required to prepare the beds and, in particular, to provide water within the sharp limits of water availability. Irrigation was out of the question in SAMAD. Water-fed agriculture was doomed to limited productivity. Therefore, in the years immediately following the Exchange, water had to be applied by hand. In 1998, productivity was crushingly low; only the stockpiles assembled before the Exchange kept the population from starving to death in 1998. However, improved techniques allowed SAMAD to provide for its own needs in 1999�albeit by keeping eighty percent of the population in agriculture, ranching, gathering, and hunting.

It seems to me that the industrial production of the population not engaged in agriculture would depend on the number of people available, the infrastructure available, the expertise available, the energy available, and the raw materials available. Some locations will be more blessed with a given resource than others. Nashua and Manchester of 2000 are going to have modest industrial resources next to 1st District (which has the advantage of the Portsmouth Naval Yard and Bath Iron Works). The major MilGov enclaves, like Puget Sound, New Jersey, and especially Colorado, will be in much better shape in terms of resources. Most cantonments are going to have a very limited industrial capability, though. Limited industrial capacity almost certainly means limited technological capacity.

By 2000, only a few areas of the country might be capable of repairing any advanced technology. Colorado, Puget Sound, and eastern Virginia come to mind. Even there, the ability to manufacture missiles of any kind probably would be out of the question. Getting back to the original question, it might be possible for certain cantonments to reproduce a modified WW2 technology. Assault rifles�especially of the AK47 variety�are not especially demanding to manufacture, although obviously one needs the right tools and materials. Radios shouldn’t be too hard, although certain components might prove a challenge. Radar, night vision, and advanced optics might be impossible until the country has recovered a good deal more.

As a side note, I must confess that I am guilty of a behavior that I strongly discourage in my students. I have been riding them about “one shot, one kill� writing. Lately, I have been requiring my students to write at least two drafts of everything they submit to me. Sorry, gentlemen�this is yet another first-draft wonder from me.


Webstral

[Legbreaker]

As Webstral as so clearly indicated, there's a lot more than just population numbers involved. Each and every settlement, or area, needs to be approached on a case by case basis. Some useful skills may be in higher supply than others (blacksmithing in rural areas for example or electronics in urban settings) which will directly impact on what can be produced.

Yes, food and surplus production is very much a factor, but in my mind it's just one out of hundred, thousands or even millions of factors. There cannot be a simple X number of people equals Y tech level.