Alternate Timeline... (WIP)

[natehale1971]

Hello everyone, as i promised... here is the timeline i have been using for my home Twilight campaign. unfortunately I have lost the finished timeline. And I need help in rebuilding it. here is what i've been able to put back together... I use the Twlight 1st edition timeline for my Canon campaign, and decided to continue the 1st edition timeline until the delayed start of the war.

if anyone would like to help me rebuild this timeline, please... please do. I could use all the help i can get in getting it finished agian.


1988: d
January 1988. d
February 1988. d
March 1988. D
April 1988. d
May 1988. D
June 1988. d
July 1988. D
August 1988. d
September 1988. D
October 1988. D
November 1988. George H.W. Bush (R-TX) is elected President of the United States of America. George H.W. Bush will continue the policies of the Reagan Administration to continue to develop those policies and practices that will confront and pressure the Soviet Union.
December 1988. D

<month> 1988. The People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo annexes the war torn nations the Republic of Burundi and the Republic of Rwanda.

<month> 1988. Soviet Union realizes that it is heading for an inevitable major economic collapse, and its war in Afghanistan can no longer be sustained. The Soviet Union withdraws all of its forces from Afghanistan, and slowly starts the downsizing of many of its other overseas ‘projects’. This will set into motion the events that are yet to come.


1989: d
January 1989. Even with the reforms that had been undertaken by the Gorbachev regime, the economies of the Soviet Union and its satellite states are at their breaking points due to their attempts to keep up with the Reagan Administration policies, and the proposed American Star Wars Program when their technological capabilities are so far surpassed that even many hardliner communist leaders are hard pressed to come up with policies to counter these problems. As the Gorbachev regime starts to allow the grip on their Eastern Bloc satellite states lesson to the point where many had allowed democratic elections that had placed non-communist or socialist political parties in positions of power, a cabal of Communist Hardliners start working at establishing the groundwork to ensure their continued control over not only the Soviet Union, But their Eastern Bloc client-states.
February 1989. d
March 1989. D
April 1989. d
May 1989. D
June 1989. d
July 1989. D
August 1989. d
September 1989. D
October 1989. D
November 1989. d
December 1989. D

<month year>. Communist Hardliners in the Soviet Union start too gravitate between two men; Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky (a decorated high-ranking Soviet Army Officer whose exploits as a Soviet Military advisor in Vietnam and Afghanistan had drawn a large following that gave him a major following within the Soviet military machine and among those industries that produced the soviet military war machines) and Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov (a mid-level KGB Official whose charismatic speaking ability draws the loyalty of even those who had been supportive of Gorbachev and his reforms). These two men will rise to control the two largest factions of hardliners jockeying into position to oppose the reforms that where about to bring an end the Soviet hegemony over Eastern Europe.

<month year>. Operation: Red Phoenix (aka the Black Winter). Communist hardliners in the Soviet Union execute a bloody coup that replaces Gorbachev and his reform government, replacing it with a Committee for State Emergency and immediately mobilizes the Soviet Armed forces throughout its satellite states in Easter Europe to brutally to put down the various attempts that was being undertaken by the members of the Warsaw Pact to introduce democratic and capitalistic reforms.

<month year>. Danilov, a KGB Official is chosen to be promoted to the position as the new Premier of the Soviet Union by the hardliners who had removed Gorbachev and his reformers in the Soviet Government. Danilov institutes a series of reforms that does not go as far as those Gorbachev had envisioned, but they allow him to maintain the Soviet system of government. Note: Danilov’s reforms are in fact very similar to those that the PRC have enacted IRL, by allowing limited amounts of ‘capitalist’ policies and investments to be tightly controlled by the central government and military.

<month year>. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 culminating in the Tiananmen Square Massacre occur in China.

<month year>. In an effort to save the economy, the Soviet Union gives up on its operations to destabilize the influence of the Allied Western powers in Africa and the rest of the Third World. The Soviet Union will continue to sell weapons systems and other armaments to these client states, but will not provide continued economic support.


1990: d
January 1990. d
February 1990. d
March 1990. D
April 1990. d
May 1990. D
June 1990. d
July 1990. D
August 1990. d
September 1990. D
October 1990. D
November 1990. d
December 1990. D

<month> 1990. The Republic of Iraq invades and subsequently directly annexes the Emirate of Kuwait in an effort to remove the country that owns the largest percentage of the debt Iraq had built up during the Iran-Iraq War. In the aftermath of Operation: Red Phoenix (aka the Black Winter), many western nations see the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as having been at the bequest of the Soviet Union. The new Soviet Premier gives reassurances to the West that they had no knowledge of this action and stated that if the west acts against Iraq they will remain out of the fighting.

1991: d
January 1991. The US-led Coalition launches a major offensive to liberate the Emirate of Kuwait from the Armed Forces of the Republic of Iraq. The combined efforts of the air, land and sea invasion of the occupied Middle Eastern state will become the most brutal and graphic military assault the world will see in the later half of the 20th century.
February 1991. After the initial ground battles and urban combat, the US-Led Coalition is able to liberate the Emirate of Kuwait from the Iraqi armed forces, pushing them back into Iraq. The Coalition forces destroyed some of the best military formations in the Middle East. The ease in which the US-led coalition causes the Soviet Union to rethink and reorganize their entire military doctrine, to modernize their armed forces using the lessons from Operation Desert Strom.
March 1991. D
April 1991. d
May 1991. D
June 1991. d
July 1991. D
August 1991. d
September 1991. D
October 1991. D
November 1991. d
December 1991. D

<month year>. Operation: Desert Storm. A US-Led Coalition against Iraq to liberate the Emirate of Kuwait. True to their word, the Soviet Union remains out of the fighting, but reinforces their statement that the current regime in Bagdad would not be overthrown. In the aftermath of Operation: Desert Storm the Soviets have proven that if client states step out of line they would be harshly punished.

<GEN> Jonathan L. Cummings is awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor due to his valorous conduct while under direct fire during Operation Desert Storm, when he personally commanded troops on the field of combat when the Iraqi Republican Guard made a concerted offensive that had somehow flanked American and allied forces to make an attack against the rear echelon support services. Cummings actions had delivered an embarrassing defeat to the Iraqi forces. And proved that even non-combat support personnel where more than capable to fight ‘elite’ frontline military forces.

December 1991. The United States Army numbers nearly 20 active duty divisions that have been deployed to various Unified Combatant Commands (aka theaters of operation) all around the world.

The United States Armed Forces creates the Combat Action Badge for all military personnel that have found themselves under direct fire by enemy forces. The new Combat Action Badge is seen as being equal to both the US Army Combat Infantryman Badge and Combat Field Medic Badge that can be awarded to all other military personnel in all branches of service.

Due to the extensive use of the US Marine Corps as Rapid Reaction Forces, leaving the Marine Corps unable to continue their normal duties protecting US Naval Bases and facilities around the world prompts the United States Navy to institute the formation of US Naval Infantry battalions that would be primarily composed of those personnel whom had not completed the US Navy SEAL program, or those whom wished to receive training that would one day allow them to complete the US Navy SEAL training program. Along with former US Navy SEAL trainees and volunteer US Navy SEAL hopefuls, the Naval Infantry Battalions find many volunteers drawn from those naval personnel who had been caught on the ground during Operation Desert Storm and fought alongside other non-combat support personnel under the command of <GEN> Cummings. The US Navy chooses to create the US Naval Infantry badge that will have many of the same features that are part of the US Navy SEALS badge.



1992: d
January 1992. d
February 1992. d
March 1992. D
April 1992. d
May 1992. D
June 1992. d
July 1992. D
August 1992. d
September 1992. The Red Army launches a major program of modernization using the lessons they learned while watching Operation: Desert Storm to make sure that any ground combat between the Soviet Union and NATO will not be as one sided as the US-Led War against Iraq. The Soviet Union attempts to create a professional NCO Corps in a manner similar to that of the West and many of the nations of the Warsaw Pact.
October 1992. D
November 1992. William Jefferson Clinton (D-AK) is elected president of the United States. The Clinton Administration will be plagued by personal and private scandals that will limit it’s abilities to deal with international affairs and embolden the leaders of all of the various anti-American Alliances around the world.
December 1992. High ranking officers in the Mexican armed forces overthrows the sitting government in Mexico City, and launches a series of major reforms and modernization programs to improve the lives of the average citizens of Mexico. Despite the initial misgivings of the American left, the Clinton Administration decides to put its support behind the military junta with grants and financial aide thanks to the passage of NAFTA. The Junta is able to rebuild the Mexican economy and infrastructure by using the Mexican Army as its primary tool. Over the next few years the Mexican Army is fully modernized with the aide of the United States who wished to create a stable democracy on its southern border.

<month year>. Operation Restore Hope is carried out to provide humanitarian assistance to the Somali Republic.

1993: d
January 1993. d
February 1993. During the first summit meeting between US President Clinton and Soviet Premier Danilov occur, the two world leaders quickly come to realize that they are a lot like, with many of the same interests. They will be able to work well together in an attempt at stabilizing the balance of power in the world. Unfortunately, their attempts at shaping the world will lead to the creation of the treaties and political alliances that will end with the world descending into a brutal and bloody world war whose repercussions that will take the world nearly a century to recover from.
March 1993. Due to the Summit meeting between Clinton and Danilov, the Republic of Iraq is semi-officially divided into three sectors that are under the control of the United States (Kurdish region to the North and those areas to the south bordering Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) and Soviet Union (central Iraq, including the capitol of Baghdad that would remain under the government of Saddam Hussein).
April 1993. Despite the initial opposition from certain parts within the Clinton Administration, the Pentagon is allowed to continue the Reagan Administration’s programs that will continue to build up the strength of the US Armed Forces to deal with the growing threats around the world. The fact that the Pentagon had taken such a major stance against the desires of the civilian leadership would become known as the <Pentagon> Revolt by the American Media.
May 1993. D
June 1993. The Military Junta ruling Mexico makes ‘peace’ with the Communist and leftist insurgents that had been operating in the Mexican countryside, brining them into the many programs that have been meant to reform and improve the nation.
July 1993. D
August 1993. d
September 1993. D
October 1993. D
November 1993. d
December 1993. D

<month year>. Operation Gothic Serpent in the Somali Republic.

<month year>. The People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo annexes the Central African Republic and the Republic of Uganda. The People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo sponsors a coup in the Republic of the Congo that places a pro-communist regime in power, the new national government signs a treaty that creates the military alliance that will become known as the Congo Pact Alliance.

<month year>. The Peoples Republic of China carries out a brutal crackdown of a growing group of pro-democracy protestors at Tiananmen Square. This horribly brutal massacre will severely damage the Chinese foreign relations for years to come.

The Union of African People’s Democratic Republics (aka the African Union)


1994: d
January 1994. d
February 1994. d
March 1994. D
April 1994. d
May 1994. D
June 1994. d
July 1994. D
August 1994. d
September 1994. D
October 1994. D
November 1994. d
December 1994. D

Lillehammer, Kingdom of Norway, hosts the XVII Winter Olympic Games in 1994.

<month year>. Tensions increase between Vietnam and China over the Spratley Islands, which have substantial oil reserves. The Soviet Union assists Vietnam in developing a more effective navy and air force. This annoys China, which begins shifting military forces closer to Vietnam and the Soviet border.

<month year>. The Soviet Union enters into major trade agreements with India and Vietnam, allowing the sell of modern warships, submarines, tanks and aircraft to the Southeast Asian countries. The trade agreements will also allow the Soviet Union to create an opening that will allow the inculsuion of the sale of advanced modern weapon systems to the Peoples Republic of China and North Korea.

<month year>. The Soviet Union allows the limited privatization of those companies that are producing the various military weapon systems and munitions for export. By the end of the year, the successes made by the Soviet arms dealers become the extremely needed shot in the arm that revitalizes the flagging Soviet economy.

<month year>. With the growing export of Soviet weapon systems to nations that had not been Soviet client states, allows the Soviet economy to rebound. The Soviet Union allows further limited economic reforms that allow small cottage industries that are dedicated to the production of various luxury items not only strengthens the Soviet economy, but improves the morale of the average Soviet citizens.

<month year>. The formation of the Bagdad Pact occurs in the Middle East of those nations that are opposed to the continued interference in Middle East Affairs by the United States of America and the other Western allied nations. The First signatories of the Bagdad Pact Alliance are the Republic of Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The member nations of the apt called Bagdad Pact begin a major program of modernization of their armed forces using the lessons learned during Operation: Desert Storm. The influx of the importing of modern Soviet weapon systems being used for the expansion and modernization of their armed forces provides a greater amount of economic recovery for the Soviet Union.

<month year>. The Italian Republic petitions the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council to be allowed to help rebuild the failed state of Somalia after the horrible failures of previous attempts made by the UN and other Non-Governmental Organizations. The Italian Republic will spearhead the creation of the new Somali Republic with a series of major projects with the assistance of their NATO and other European Union allies.

<month year>. Fighting between Pro-Democracy and Pro-Communist forces in the Republic of Angola ends with the military intervention of the People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo shifting the balance of power and creating the new Socialist Democratic Republic of Angola that almost immediately joins the new Congo Pact.


1995: d
January 1995. d
February 1995. d
March 1995. D
April 1995. d
May 1995. D
June 1995. d
July 1995. D
August 1995. d
September 1995. D
October 1995. D
November 1995. d
December 1995. D

Thanks to changes in trade and commerce policies made by the Clinton Administration, the East German and Polish computer industries inside the Warsaw Pact are able to take-off and very quickly became equal to any of the computer operating systems that would be developed by their western counterparts.

<month year>. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Syrian dominated Lebanese Republic join the Bagdad Pact.

<month year>. The West Germans invite their East German brothers to join the major reconstruction program that they and the State of Israel have hoped would become the ultimate in ensuring the documentation of Nazi atrocities for all time. The project was to refurbish and return Nazi sites back to the appearance they had while in use... This Project would include the reconstruction of Nazi death camps and locations where the Nazi leadership held their most public and private ceremonies. The West Germans had already brought in assistance from the State of Israel and other holocaust survivor groups to assist in ensuring that no one could either forget or deny the horrors that the Nazi regime had committed on their fellow human beings.

<month year>. The People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo changes its name to the Union of African People’s Democratic Socialist Republics in honor of the fact it had become the most militarily powerful of the African nations (much to the vocal opposition of the South Africans).

<month year>. The ruling junta of the United States of Mexico institutes a series of reforms that causes many of the Mexican communist, socialist and other leftist parties to unify to create what will become the largest and best organized of the Mexican political parties.

<month year>. The Federal Republic of Indonesia joins the Beijing Pact in the aftermath of a coup that is carried out by the Military that was supported by ‘military advisors’ form the People’s Republic of China. The entrance of Indonesia into the Beijing Pact causes much concern in Australia, who beings to increase their defense budget, and begins a major program for the buildup of the Australian military forces.

<month year>. The African nations of Zambia, and Zimbabwe join the Congo Pact. Insurgents sponsored by the People’s Democratic Republic of the Congo overthrow the government in Cameroon, and bring that nation into the Congo Pact.

1996: d
January 1996. d
February 1996. d
March 1996. D
April 1996. d
May 1996. In an effort to appear that the Clinton Administration will take a harder line against the growing threats against the United States and its allies, the Department of Defense announces the creation of the Unified Combatant Command dedicated to operations in Africa thanks to the growing perceived worldwide threats due to the growth of the Congo Pact, the new command will become known as United States African Command.
June 1996. d
July 1996. A group of archeologists working in the Harbor of Hong Kong discover a sunken American submarine that contains a treaty between the United Kingdom and both sides of the Chinese Civil War that gives the British the rights to Hong Kong in perpetuity (along with several other nations that had been granted the same rights to their ‘colonial concessions’). This causes a lot of political problems and tensions between the United Kingdom and the People’s Republic of China.
August 1996. The Italian missions in Somalia start to show major improvements that many had not believed possible, and has allowed the creation of a stable government for the growing Somali Republic.
September 1996. D
October 1996. The Middle Eastern states the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Sultanate of Oman, and the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya decides to join the Bagdad Pact.
November 1996. Bill Clinton is reelected to a second term as President of the United States thanks to his growing perception as taking a much harder line against the growing communist alliances around the world.
December 1996. D

The 1996 Olympics is held in Athens, Hellenic Republic to commemorate the 100th Anniversary of the modern Olympic Games.

Thanks to years of negotiations between Soviet Premier Danilov and US President Clinton, the Soviet Union slowly starts to allow limited western business investments in the Eastern bloc.


1997: d
January 1997. d
February 1997. After years of loyal service to the Warsaw Pact, the East German Armed Forces are allowed to establish their own Soviet-style Air Assault Brigades.
March 1997. D
April 1997. d
May 1997. d
June 1997. d
July 1997. D
August 1997. d
September 1997. D
October 1997. The construction of a series of ‘Houses of the Dead’ located on the sites of those concentration camps that would not be reconstructed and turned into Holocaust Memorial Museums is finally completed. Each of these structures will contain the names of the victims of the Holocaust that had died at these sites. Other ‘houses of the dead’ were also be built on sites to commemorate those who had stood up in defiance to the Nazi regime, and had been murdered for this by the Nazi regime.
November 1997. d
December 1997. D


1998: d
January 1998. d
February 1998. d
March 1998. The Peoples Republic of China accepts the terms of the recently discovered Hong Kong Treaty, especially when they realize that they will be able to use the creation of these new ‘foreign concessions’ to strengthen their rapidly developing economic recovery. The major economic and political reforms have allowed the Peoples Republic of China to start and put the Tiananmen Square Massacre behind them.
April 1998. d
May 1998. D
June 1998. d
July 1998. D
August 1998. d
September 1998. D
October 1998. D
November 1998. d
December 1998. D

<month year>. The economic and political reforms spearheaded by Danilov show major improvements in the Soviet Union and its East European satellite states. The growth in the Eastern Bloc states economies starts to show a swift upbeat to the morale of the average East European citizens.

<month year>. The 1998 Summit held between Danilov and Clinton lays down the groundwork that allows West German companies to invest in the modernization of their East German counterparts. This allows East German factories and industrial facilities to undergo a major modernization that will increase their productivity and improve their production capacities. Within a year East German produced goods become available in West Germany, as West German produced goods become available in East Germany.

The Soviet Union allows the German Democratic Republic to take more direct role actions within the Warsaw Pact with the increases in the frequency of the yearly military trails and training exercises.

The leadership of Polish Peoples Republic and the German Democratic Republic are allowed to begin a series of economic programs that allow the import of luxury goods from the West. With the advancement of the trade of luxury goods from the west, allows for a major wave of western luxury goods to be traded through East Germany and Poland with the other Eastern Bloc states (including the Soviet Union).

The Czechoslovakian Socialist Republic is allowed to enter into trade agreements with the Western European neighbors thanks to the increased access to the internet.

June 1998. The decidedly left-wing grassroots political action organization that will grow to become the Alliance for a Progressive New America gets its start on the internet, pushing at first for the US Congress to only censure President Clinton for conduct unbecoming and move on with the business of governing the country. <George Soros> will become the primary financer and organizer of the Alliance for a Progressive America, while Social Sciences College Professor named Wade Kirkland will become the face of the grassroots organization.

<month> 1998. The United States Army undertakes a program that will reactivate the US XXII Corps, and reactivated US 11th Infantry (Air Assault) Division, US 17th Infantry (Airborne) Division and US 2nd Cavalry Division that will become a second rapid reaction force capable of being sent anywhere on Earth at a moments notice. The US XXIII Airmobile Corps will also include the US 4th Infantry (Mechanized) Division.


1999: d
January 1999. d
February 1999. d
March 1999. D
April 1999. The United States is caught by surprise when the newly elected socialist government that had came to power in the United Mexican States chooses to join the Havana Pact instead of accepting membership in NATO. By the end of the year, the new government institutes a great deal many changes that had included the change of the official name of the country to the United Mexican Socialist States. Together with their new Cuban and Venezuelan allies, Mexico quickly becomes one of the three major power players that set the policies of the Havana Pact.
May 1999. d
June 1999. d
July 1999. Due to growing disagreements with the United States and United Kingdom, the new socialist government of the French Republic once again withdraws form the NATO Alliance. But unlike the times previous, they are soon followed by the Italian Republic, the Hellenic Republic, and the Kingdom of Spain. These countries will become known as the initial signatories of the formation of the Mediterranean Alliance. They are joined by the Socialist Peoples Republic of Albania, the Peoples Democratic Republic of Algeria and the Italian-dominated Somali Republic by the end of the year.
August 1999. d
September 1999. D
October 1999. D
November 1999. d
December 1999. D


June 1999. Thanks to the increase in the trade of western style fashions to the Eastern Bloc with the free trade of luxury goods, the Polish city of <name> has become the fashion capitol of the Eastern Bloc as Polish clothing designers and garment manufacturers’ start their own revolution in fashion. Polish clothing styles become part of the youth counter-culture throughout the Western world.



2000: d
January 2000. d
February 2000. d
March 2000. D
April 2000. d
May 2000. D
June 2000. d
July 2000. D
August 2000. d
September 2000. D
October 2000. D
November 2000. <name> (D-XX) is elected president of the United States during the growing crisis around the world, thanks to the general feeling that the Clinton Administration could have done more to prevent it, falls heavily on the shoulders of Vice-President Al Gore who ends up facing a great deal of the blame for the failures of the Clinton Administration’s foreign policy to limit the growth of communist alliances that appear hostile to the United States and its allies all around the world. Instead he lost the Democratic Presidential Nomination Process to <name> (D-XX), a longtime Conservative Democrat who had supported many of Clinton Administration and Republican-controlled Congress instituted domestic policies that had continued to shrink the size of the Federal Government and had announced a policy platform that championed a much more Reagan-esqe foreign policy that would challenge the communist and socialist nations on economic and political fields instead of allowing them a free-reign to spread their influence.
December 2000. D

<month year>. Thanks to the micro-capitalism projects that had been allowed by Soviet Premier Danilov that legalized the underground cottage industries, the economic growth of the East European Communist Bloc states had allowed the East Europeans to enjoy many luxuries that where very similar to those that had been enjoyed by those who live in the West.

<month year>. The Eastern Bloc technological programs are able to catch up with the West thanks to the continued trade and commerce that had been the hallmark of the Clinton Administration policies that ironically had allowed the Eastern Bloc to counter the effects of the Reagan Administration policies that had nearly broke their economy by trying to keep up with the technological advances of the West.

<month year>. Even with tensions that will led to the Sino-Soviet War, the 2000 Olympics is held in <city>, <country> in an effort to promote the efforts to get both sides to participate in peace talks.

<month year>. Sydney, Commonwealth of Australia, hosts the XXVII Summer Olympic Games in hopes of promoting a peaceful resolution to the growing tensions that would eventually lead to the Sino-Soviet War.

<name> 2000. A naval battle between Vietnamese and Chinese warships in the South China Sea results in the sinking of a Soviet frigate that was transiting the area by Chinese missiles. Fighting breaks out along the Soviet-Chinese border. An escalating crisis develops between China and the Soviet Union and both China and the Soviet Union partially mobilize and shift forces to face each other.

<month> 2000. After several tense years of border skirmishes between their border protection forces, full blown open fighting between the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China breaks-out along their shared Siberian border. This fighting will slowly spread to include the Central Asian front when the Chinese bring the rest of the Beijing Pact into the war forcing the Soviets to bring in their own Warsaw Pact allies. Danilov is forced by his cabinet to order a full scale invasion of the PRC in an effort to teach the Chinese a lesson. The initial Soviet objective is to occupy Sinkiang and Manchuria, to break the Chinese Army, and ultimately to humiliate China in an effort to bring the Chinese Communists back into the Soviet fold.


2001: d
January 2001. d
February 2001. Shortly after <name> (D-xx) was sworn into office as President of the United States, he appointed US Army General Jonathan L. Cummings as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs-of-Staff. GEN Cummings is a highly decorated Vietnam War veteran who had been awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor due to his valorous conduct under fire during Operation Desert Storm.
March 2001. D
April 2001. The unexpected death of the Vice-President of the United States finds the even more unexpected move by the President, when he nominates <name> (R-xx), the man who had just been his opponent during the Presidential campaign. The two men will end up working well together in establishing the policies that will allow the United States to be able to stand up to and challenge the growing threats against America and their allies.
May 2001. D
June 2001. d
July 2001. D
August 2001. d
September 2001. D
October 2001. D
November 2001. d
December 2001. D


<month> 2001. The Soviets launch the first major offensive against the Peoples Republic of China in an attempt to capitalize on the early successes they had enjoyed during the start of the Sino-Soviet War. Unfortunately, Operation Red Willow was a disaster and forces the Kremlin to turn to their Warsaw Pact client states for additional military forces.

<month> 2001. The East German NVA sends one of its field armies containing its best military units to the Far East front in support of their Soviet allies along with all of its support elements, this is the largest contribution than any of the other Eastern Bloc Soviet client-states will make. The fact that the largest contribution was made by the smallest military forces in the Warsaw Pact, forces other Warsaw Pact states to promise to increase their contributions as soon as they are able. It also allows for the Soviets to approve that the East Germans can increase the size of the NVA. Unfortunately, this will only end up in allowing for the NVA to replace the losses of their finest military units.

<month> 2001. The Republic of Djibouti, the Tunisian Republic and the State of Eritrea join the French-led Mediterranean Alliance.

11 September 2001. A Terrorist attack against the United States occurs, when several cells of al-Qaeda sponsored terrorists hijack several international and transcontinental flights. The terrorists use the airliners to crash into the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon. The Terrorist acts succeed in the destruction of the World Trade Centre twin towers, and killing almost four hundred Defense Department personnel with the attack against the Pentagon. The two additional airliners that had been hijacked by the al-Qaeda are shot down by United States Air National Guard F15 jet fighters when they attempt to crash into the US Capitol Building and the White House.

12-15 September 2001. Over a five day period of time; the United States carries out a series of missile strikes against al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan and the Sudan to provide cover for a series of surgical assaults carried out by elite units of the United States Special Operations Command. The surgical strikes allow the United States to capture the al-Qaeda leadership, including Osama bin-Laden. The crippling of the al-Qaeda leadership causes the world-wide terror network to fracture.


2002: d
January 2002. d
February 2002. d
March 2002. D
April 2002. d
May 2002. D
June 2002. d
July 2002. D
August 2002. d
September 2002. D
October 2002. D
November 2002. d
December 2002. D

2002. The United States Department of Homeland Security is created in the aftermath of the terror attacks, combined with the alarming amount of hostile forces around the world. The US Department of Homeland Security is tasked with a revamping of Civil Defense and FEMA preparedness for major disasters and any possible wartime national crisis.

2002. The creation of the United States Border Guard, a land based version of the United States Coast Guard that would be responsible for patrolling the Northern and Southern borders of the United States of America that combines military capabilities with law enforcement powers. The US Coast Guard and US Border Guard are both brought under the control of the US Department of Homeland Security.

2002. Östersund, Kingdom of Sweden, was set to host the XIX Winter Olympics. But the anti-Soviet uprisings occurring throughout Central and Eastern Europe will cause the Winter Olympic Games to be called off. Instead the Kingdom of Sweden will use the facilities they had established for the Winter Olympic Games in Östersund to be used for a series of peace talks and summits between the worlds leaders currently engaged in combat around the world.


April 2002. The French-led Mediterranean Alliance launches attacks against NATO Alliance states to support the Hellenic Republic in their dispute with the Republic of Turkey in the Aegean Sea after the localized fighting between Greek and Turkish nationals on the island of Cyprus blows up into open conflict. At first the conflict is limited to the Aegean Sea and Balkan front, but soon the fighting spreads to Central and Western Europe as well.

June 2002. After the destruction of the best NVA divisions that makes up the DDR 5th Army after having being used as nothing more than cannon fodder to allow Soviet units to safely withdraw from active combat engagements, a series of secret talks are held between high-ranking military and civilian officials of the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic with the assistance of American and British diplomatic officials. During these talks the agreement that the two German states should remain separate entities is agreed upon, as well as an attempt to remove Soviet forces from the German Democratic Republic so that they would finally be allowed to set their own future.

July 2002. During the naval war in the South China Sea the Soviets have all but destroyed the Chinese People Liberation Army Navy, but has also lost a significant portion of the Soviet Pacific Fleet. The Soviet Union has managed to establish a blockade of the Chinese mainland that has all but stopped most imports into the Peoples Republic of China. The biggest problem for the Soviet blockade has been the fact that Hong Kong is still British territory, and shipping continues to flow through not only that port. But also through the other Foreign Concessions, that exist along the Mainland Chinese coast.

August 2002. North Korea launches a major offensive against South Korea, in an attempt to forcefully annex the southern Korean peninsula in hopes that with the United States and its allies engaged elsewhere would allow them to keep what ever they had gained. But the North Koreans did not expect the South Koreans to accept the Japanese military assistance to protect the Republic of Korea. The unexpected appearance of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces allows the Allies to block the North Korean southern offensive, and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force alongside the Navy of the Republic of Korea are able to completely destroy the North Korean Naval forces and establish a blockade that cuts it off from any reinforcements from the sea. The Japanese Air Self-Defense Force is able to assist the South Korean Air Force in quickly gaining air superiority over the Korean peninsula. And the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force is able to launch a major offensive against North Korea using amphibious landings to by-pass the heavily mined demilitarized zone.

September 2002. The Chinese Peoples Liberation Army surprises the world when it apparently carries out a major offense against their western allies, and ended up being the recipients of a series of concentrated nuclear strikes that had ended the central government and controlling bodies of the PRC and its military forces. Evidence that the attacks against the Western Allies was undertaken by a rouge Peoples Liberation Army General who wished to establish himself as the next leader of the PRC. Thanks to the nuclear attacks that destroy the country’s infrastructure, the PRC quickly disintegrates as fighting between rival factions within the Peoples Liberation Army and other Chinese political groups’ causes total chaos in the Asia Theater as various warlords spring up overnight declaring their own fiefdoms and empires. Prolonging the war in the region, forcing the US and its allies to kept military assets and forces in the theater attempting to stabilize the region.


2003: d
January 2003. d
February 2003. d
March 2003. D
April 2003. d
May 2003. D
June 2003. d
July 2003. D
August 2003. d
September 2003. D
October 2003. D
November 2003. d
December 2003. D

February 2003. With the major advances being made by South Korea and its allies, the North Korean General Staff carries out a nearly bloodless coup that allows them to sue for peace.

June 2003. After nearly three months of talks, South Korea officially annexes North Korea and places many former North Korean government officials on trail for crimes against humanity and war crimes trials.

2003. Soviet forces are stunned when they encounter extensive stiff resistance from both and Finland when they attempt to cross their territories to carry out an offensive against the Kingdom of Norway. This resistance allows NATO Alliance to deploy reinforcements into Norway, Sweden and Finland.

2003. Soviet Navy attempts to carry out a breakout sortie through the North Sea to carry out operations in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. The largest naval battle since the Spanish Armada was destroyed by the British Royal Navy is fought between the NATO Alliance and Soviet Navy.



2004: d
January 2004. d
February 2004. d
March 2004. D
April 2004. d
May 2004. D
June 2004. d
July 2004. D
August 2004. d
September 2004. D
October 2004. D
November 2004. d
December 2004. D

2004. Several major uprisings in major cities throughout the Warsaw Pact states after the news that the Soviet Union had abused some of their finest military units with the apparently ‘thrown away’ with the use of them as cannon fodder by the Soviet Far East Commander. The most unexpected and prominent resistance had come from those who had been the staunchest and most loyal of the East European Soviet satellite states, the German Democratic Republic. This occurred because the East German liaison officer had overheard the Soviet leaders laughing about how the Germans deserved nothing better than being used as cannon fodder thanks to the actions of the Nazis during the Second World War.

2004. Defense Minister Nikolai Tukhachevsky is able to gain the upper hand in the Kremlin, allowing him to purge Konstantin Danilov after the Premiere returned from talks where he had been trying to negotiate an end to the fighting in Eastern Europe. Mainly because he had been willing to allow the DDR and the other ‘rebellious’ Warsaw Pact states to peacefully leave the Warsaw Pact as long as they remained neutral, and would not be allowed to join the NATO Alliance.

2004. After a short weeklong period of apparent chaos within the Kremlin, Nikolai Tukhachevsky is able to succeed Konstantin Danilov as the Premiere of the Soviet Union and Secretary General of the Communist Party. One of Tukhachevky’s first acts as the Soviet Premiere is the purge of many of the Danilovians whom where in positions of authority in the Soviet armed forces, and prominent Soviet government officials. Instead of the purge killing the Danilovians, they are assigned to military operations on the Far Eastern Front against the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army.

17 <month> 2004. The international media is shocked when Dan Rather is arrested by the Tukhachevky Regime and is tried by a Soviet military tribunal as a spy. Rather had travelled to Moscow so he could interview Danilov after the completion of the peace talks. Instead he was able to give the first and only interview with Nikolai Tukhachevky, an interview that did not put the new Soviet Premier in a less than generous light. Many feel this is why the Tukhachevky regime ordered the arrest of Dan Rather. Sometime in mid-July 2006, Dan Rather will be executed by a firing squad after having spent two grueling years in a Soviet prison labor camp.


2005: d
January 2005. d
February 2005. d
March 2005. D
April 2005. d
May 2005. D
June 2005. d
July 2005. D
August 2005. d
September 2005. D
October 2005. D
November 2005. d
December 2005. D

2005. Shortly after the Soviet Forces in Germany have been forced to withdraw out of East Germany, the leadership of the NATO Alliance attempts to open peace talks with the Soviet Union to end the conflict. The new civilian government of the German Democratic Republic is elected, and comes to power. The Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic officially start talks to formalize their continued existence as two separate national entities.

2005. When attempts to get the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact to accept negotiation to end the fighting in Eastern Europe the NATO Alliance launches a major offensive across the border into Poland, in an attempt to link up with pro-democracy and pro-NATO forces.

2005. The Italian Republic launches an offensive into the Federal Socialist Republics of Yugoslavia and the Republic of Austria; and they are backed by expeditionary units of the other Mediterranean Alliance members.

2005. The Italian military operations into Austria and Yugoslavia forces the Swiss Confederation to officially declare itself in a state of armed neutrality, after the destruction of an elite Italian Alpine battalion when one of the Italian Alpine Brigades had attempted to use Swiss territory to launch their offensive into Austria when the Swiss used tactical nuclear explosives to close the passes into their country.


2006: d
January 2006. d
February 2006. d
March 2006. D
April 2006. d
May 2006. D
June 2006. d
July 2006. D
August 2006. d
September 2006. D
October 2006. D
November 2006. d
December 2006. D

<month> 2006. The first exchanges of nuclear weapons occur in the Western Hemisphere only after NATO forces that had been spearheaded by the German First Army crossed the pre-war Soviet-Polish border. Both NATO Alliance and the Warsaw Pact nations limit their nuclear strikes to obvious military targets, while the Beijing Pact had already used the majority of its nuclear arsenal while having fought against the Soviet Union in Siberia, Mongolia and Central Asia.


2007: d
January 2007. d
February 2007. d
March 2007. D
April 2007. d
May 2007. D
June 2007. d
July 2007. D
August 2007. d
September 2007. D
October 2007. D
November 2007. The first nuclear attack is carried out against the continental United States occurs with the first strike that is made against Washington, D.C. on Thanksgiving Day in an attempt to decapitate the American leadership. The nuclear attack will become known as the Thanksgiving Day Massacre by the Western Media. Thanks to the constant reports made by the American Media trying to keep the American citizens updated on the evacuation plans of the Civil Defense Corps and FEMA, provides the Soviet Union with a great deal of valuable intelligence on the American war plans. The Soviets use this information to use both conventional and nuclear weapons to hopefully pressure the Americans to either sue for peace or pressure them to accept a cease fire.
December 2007. D


2008: During the course of 2008 the United States and its allies will force the majority of the Havana pact nations to sue for peace, leaving only the three major power players within the Havana Pact remaining engaged in combat.
January 2008. d
February 2008. d
March 2008. D
April 2008. d
May 2008. D
June 2008. After a series of limited nuclear exchanges between the NATO Alliance and the Warsaw Pact, the surviving leadership of NATO and the Soviet Union agree to a nuclear cease fire; but conventional fighting continues but at a much lower level.
July 2008. After continued horrifying losses suffered by the not only the Venezuelan armed forces, but the suffering of the average Venezuelan citizens prompts a group of officers and men to carry out a coup that overthrows the Chavez regime. Replacing it with a provisional military junta, that immediately orders the withdrawal of Venezuelan armed forces form active combat missions until they can officially be ‘refitted, resupplied and reinforced.’ The new government silently opens negotiations with the United States.
August 2008. The new military junta ruling over Venezuela presents the former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to the United States representatives in chains during the treaty signing ceremony on the flight deck of the American aircraft carrier <d> (CVN-xx).
September 2008. Despite the major political and military losses taken by the Havana Pact, both Mexico and Cuba continue their combined offensive into the American Southwest with having to rely upon only the oil reserves having been provided by the Mexican oil wells with the loss of the Venezuelan oil and gas refineries that had allowed their forces to maintain the Havana Pact offenses.
October 2008. D
November 2008. d
December 2008. D


2009: d
January 2009. The French-led Mediterranean Alliance invades and occupies the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, the Kingdom of Belgium, the southern provinces of the Kingdom of Netherlands, and the German Rhineland during an attempt to establish a physical barrier to keep refugees out of France. The invasion allowed the French to capture many of the government officials of the Federal Republic of Germany while they had been at the West German capitol in Bonn debating the possibility that East and West Germany should unify. Many outside observers express their feelings that this was the actual desired goal of the French-led invasion, to keep the two German states from unifying to create the German Federal Republic. And it was ironic that the invasion that was intended to stop German Unification is exactly what forced the two German states to actually agree to unification.
February 2009. d
March 2009. D
April 2009. d
May 2009. The combined military might of the US Marine Corps and US Navy are able to force the surrender of the Republic of Cuba after the capture of Havana. With the capture of the Castro brothers and the leadership of the ruling Cuban Communist Party, the majority of the Cuban military forces feel secure enough to surrender. Only those units attached to Mexican military command structures continue to fight on, mainly because they are unable to surrender or return home. The influx of those Cuban exiles that had been living in the United States will allow the reconstruction of Cuba and the quick recovery of its economy. Alone by itself, Mexico will continue to fight.
June 2009. The last major NATO offensive against the Soviet and Warsaw Pact forces is launched by the German Third Field Army, and spearheaded by the US XI Corps. Unfortunately, the NATO Offensive is blunted with the destruction of the US 5th Infantry (Mechanized) Division when it is overrun by the Soviet counteroffensive. The destruction of the US 5th ID ends up stopping the both NATO offensive and Soviet counter-offensive because the Soviets are forced to hunt down and destroy the surviving elements of the US 5th Infantry (mechanized) division that have been trapped behind enemy lines. The need to eliminate these surviving elements to secure their rear areas has caused the Soviets to stop their counter-offensive.
July 2009. D
August 2009. d
September 2009. d
October 2009. D
November 2009. The US European Command engages Operation Omega to evacuate the majority of the United States Armed Forces personnel and their dependents from the European theater. The French attempts to stop the US evacuation, but ends up causing a major NATO offensive that will lead to the NATO allies in the liberation of the German and Dutch Rhineland from the control of the Franco-Belgian Union. The offensive will also secure the liberation of the Flemish Community of Belgium and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
December 2009. d


2010: d
January 2010. d
February 2010. Italian forces withdraw back into their pre-war Italian borders in an attempt to regain control over their own homeland from the control of both marauders and the Mafioso families.
March 2010. The short and brutal fighting against the Franco-Belgian Union and NATO ends with a treaty that will create two new states; the Republic of Flanders from the Flemish community of Belgium and the creation of the neutral state of the Federal Republic of Alsace-Lorraine that includes the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg that will separate the French Republic and the German Federal Republic.
April 2010. The Republic of Austria and the former Yugoslavian Republic of Slovenia formally unify to create the Federal Republic of Austria-Slovenia. This is followed by the complete dissolution of the Czechoslovakian Socialist Republic, the western half becomes the Federal Republic of Bohemia-Markova to completely remove itself from the government of the Czechoslovakian-era, while the eastern half will become the Slovakian Peoples Republic.
May 2010. D
June 2010. The government of United Socialist States of Mexico is overthrown by a group of field colonels and several members of the Mexican Joint Chiefs-of-Staff, the military junta opens negotiations with the American government while ordering all Mexican Armed Forces to return to the pre-war Mexican-American borders.
July 2010. D
9 July 2010. The end of the unofficial civil war between the US MilGov and CivGov occurs, with the reapplication of the US Constitution and Bill of Rights that ensures the limits to the powers of the Federal Government, and agreements between the two factions for the recovery of the country are agreed to. The two factions unify to ensure the ultimate defeat of the Alliance for a Progressive New America by July 2011.
August 2010. d
September 2010. D
October 2010. D
November 2010. d
December 2010. D





NATO Alliance
Mediterranean Alliance (Southern Europe & Northern Africa)
Warsaw Pact (Eastern Europe)
Havana Pact (Central & South America)
Beijing Pact (Asia & Pacific Rim)
Congo Pact (Africa)
Baghdad Pact (The Middle East)

[natehale1971]

The implimentation of the EFCP (Evaluation of Female Combat Personnel) Program.

[natehale1971]

Twilight 2000 Timeline (V1.2): Countdown to Armageddon

This timeline has been creating using much of the work that had been started by a man I know only as Webstral… Whose amazing and wonderful work he had done to expand and clarify many aspects of the original Twilight 2000 timeline is what had inspired me, and kept my interest in preserving the original first edition Twilight 2000 timeline.


Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov
Danilovism
Danilovians

Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky, Defense Minister
Tukhachevskyites


1989

By the mid-1980’s, West and East Germany had formed distinct identities. The FRG had become an economic powerhouse. Its military was powerful, possessing a first-rate military tradition and top-notch equipment. East Germany, though a success by Communist standards, was impoverished next to its capitalist half. The population and military were both smaller and significantly less capable. Throughout this period, both halves of Germany were hosts to major foreign military establishments. The United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, and France all maintained significant forces inside the FRG to defend their NATO partner from Soviet invasion. For their part, the Soviet Union maintained a massive military establishment in the DDR. Though by the 1980’s there was probably little risk of an outright Soviet invasion of West Germany, both sides maintained a high state of readiness. Germans on both sides of the border hoped for eventual reunification. The West Germans were more vocal about it. It was difficult to see, however, when that might happen.

In 1989, Hungary began to open its borders with the West. Soon afterwards, other Eastern European nations began to allow increased traffic with Western Europe. Gorbachev, the President of the Soviet Union, did nothing. Then, in December 1989, an amazing thing began to happen. The Berlin Wall, which had divided Communist East Berlin from capitalist West Berlin since the early 1960’s, began to fall. It seemed that the Cold War was on the verge of ending. After forty years, the dreams of German reunification were about to be realized. As West Berliners and East Berliners danced on the Wall, hard-line Communists in Moscow made their move.

In a violent coup, the Gorbachev regime was toppled. The new government, led by former KGB man Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov, immediately set about restoring the Communist situation in Eastern Europe. Soviet troops restored the Berlin Wall with no small amount of bloodshed. Throughout Eastern Europe, the KGB and the Soviet Army reversed the liberalizing trend of the satellite states and reconfirmed Soviet hegemony. Tens of thousands were killed, tortured, or imprisoned. Despite the outcry of many West Germans, NATO stood by and watched helplessly. It was a signal moment for the West German psyche.

A group of KGB hard-liners and military men watched with growing apprehension.

If the Eastern European states had the power to open their borders to the West, there would be an enormous loss of specialized talent to the West. It had happened in East in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s. With the border between Communist East and the increasingly prosperous West of Berlin open, professionals and specialists of every description left the DDR in droves. The Berlin Wall had been erected to keep them in. With the Iron Curtain beginning to look more and more like a sieve, the whole scene would be repeated on a massive scale. The economies of Eastern Europe would be devastated. That the Eastern European governments could not help foreseeing this confirmed to the cabal of Soviet hard-liners that the Eastern Europeans had lost their minds. They obviously preferred this self-destructive show of resistance to the USSR to their own economic well-being. There were ominous portents about where this might go. Stalin had conquered Eastern Europe and installed Communist regimes for the principal purpose of providing a bulwark against the West.

But it also would mean that there would be a unified Germany that would be allied with the West, that could invade Russia for the third time in a century if they so wished. The Germans would no longer have to fight their way through East and Poland before reaching Soviet soil. If they lost control of their East European satellites it could mean that Poland might be willing to allow Western forces to transit their country rather than participate in the defense of Russia. The Soviet hard-liners began to make plans, and create a covert network of like-minded allies in many of the East European nations.

In December 1989, the Berlin Wall started to come down. Live television broadcasts showed crowds of Germans on both sides of the Wall partying and attacking the Wall with sledgehammers. And shown as East German border guards who were supposed to be shooting any East Germans as they attempted to cross over to the other side, were instead actually helping West Berliners climb up onto the wall to destroy it. For many, the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 had signified the end of the cold war, but to others it was evidence that their iron grip on the nations of Eastern Europe was waning. And seeing East and West Germans dancing on the Berlin Wall frightened die-hard Communist hardliners throughout the Soviet government to work together and carry out a bloody coup that replaced Gorbachev and his reform government when Gorbachev had done did nothing to stop this travesty.

The hard-liners made their move, and using mostly KGB troops the hard-liners assaulted the Kremlin in the dead night. There was a great deal of violence and bloodshed. Within an hour, a KGB official named Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov had assumed the top office in the Soviet Union.

Shortly thereafter, Soviet motor rifle troops pulled up to the Berlin Wall in several sectors. There were no warnings. The troops simply opened fire. Their principal targets were the East German border guards, but a good deal of fire was sprayed into the crowds of East German civilians on the Communist side of the Wall. Camera crews caught it all. Numbers of West Germans were caught on the Wall or even on the wrong side and gunned down. The atmosphere of jubilance instantly morphed into a scene of terror as Berliners attempted to flee. The West Berliners, though panicked into mass flight, at least had the Wall to protect them. Hundreds of East Germans died, and many more were wounded. Throughout East and Eastern Europe as a whole, the Soviet security apparatus went into action. Overnight, thousands of East Germans, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, and Bulgarians were seized or assassinated.

The Soviet garrisons in Eastern Europe were mobilized and moved to take control of key assets. Fighting between Soviet troops and local military units broke out in Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

Stunned, the West looked on in horror.

In a violent coup, the Gorbachev regime had been toppled. And the new government that emerged from the rubble, was led by a former KGB Official named Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov, immediately set about restoring the Communist situation in Eastern Europe. Soviet troops had restored the Berlin Wall with no small amount of bloodshed. Throughout Eastern Europe, the KGB and the Soviet Army reversed the liberalizing trend of the satellite states and reconfirmed the Soviet hegemony. Tens of thousands were killed, tortured, or imprisoned. Despite the outcry of many West Germans, NATO stood by and watched helplessly. It was a signal moment for the West German psyche.

Just as there had been nothing they could do in 1956 or 1968, in 1989 the Western Allies were forced to sit on the sidelines and watch as the neo-Stalinists reasserted their control over the nations of the Warsaw Pact. Western public opinion exploded, but the heads of the NATO states were not prepared to invade Eastern Europe to stop the Soviets. Where necessary, the Soviets simply replaced the rebellious governments of Eastern Europe with more suitable local personnel. Fighting and insurrection spread in Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. Danilov mobilized a quarter-million troops from the western districts of the USSR and sent them into Eastern Europe to help the restored Communist governments put down restive elements. Purges continued in the governments. Disloyal military units were cornered and destroyed. Partisan movements sprang up and were hunted down by Soviet forces. All the while, the West lodged vociferous protests but otherwise did nothing. The Western press came to call it the Black Winter. By the time it was over, nationalist tendencies on the part of the Eastern Europeans had been crushed once again.

The Iron Curtain had been restored, and the brief thaw in the Cold War disappeared in a bitter frost that the Western media started to call the Black Winter.


1990

The period immediately after the Black Winter (’89 - ’90) was one of the most tense in the history of the Cold War. The US President, George H.W. Bush, was deeply angered and frustrated by the turn of events in Eastern Europe. Though he was enough of a realist to know that he could not have done much to aid the Eastern Europeans without going to war with the Soviets, it was nevertheless bitterly disappointing to see the Iron Curtain so close to and yet so far from coming down.

Public opinion throughout the West was explosive. One poll in the US found that a majority of Americans were willing to go to war.* The Western press was filled with anti-Soviet vitriol, and vocal leaders in the legislatures of the NATO signatories soundly denounced the Danilov regime. The US Congress drafted and passed a measure to block all shipments of grain and other US products to the USSR. US leaders pressured other Western and Third World nations to follow suit.

[* It is noteworthy, however, that this poll stood out among other similar polls in making no mention of the prospect of nuclear war. Other polls showed that a majority of Americans still believed an outright confrontation with the USSR would lead to a nuclear exchange. Polls which included the nuclear issue showed a much smaller of the United States willing to risk nuclear war to liberate Eastern Europe.]

Behind the scenes, however, the Danilov regime was working to repair the damage to its relations with the West. Even as Soviet intelligence and security forces were locking down Eastern Europe, Soviet representatives were soliciting the United States and other Western nations for loans, credits, grain, and other products. Though the Eastern Europeans were handled brutally, Westerners caught up in events throughout the region were treated with great care by the Soviets.

Although his first act as the leader of the Soviet Union was to have directed the brutal counter revolution throughout Eastern Europe, Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov was actually in fact a reformer. He understood why Gorbachev had made changes in the Soviet system. Danilov grasped the single overriding fact of Soviet existence at the beginning of the 1990’s: the Soviet Union could survive no longer as it had been operating for more than twenty years. The military budget had imposed a crushing burden on an economy that was much less productive than that of the United States. The pervasive presence of internal security was consuming nation resources at a rate that was small only when compared to the gargantuan military budget. Centralized planning, combined with the essential deceit of the Soviet system, had resulted in a national production situation that produced nothing so much as waste. State-run agriculture was a disaster. The Soviet Union possessed some of the most potentially productive agricultural land in the world, and yet the USSR imported massive quantities of food from the West. Even then, millions of Soviets existed at the brink of starvation.

Unlike many of his cronies in the new Kremlin cabal, Danilov understood clearly that the Soviet Union would implode without significant change. His problem was convincing the hard liners who had overthrown and killed Gorbachev that some measure of reform was required. Danilov needed to convince his co conspirators that their best option for holding onto power was to give up some of the immense power of the Party state before the state collapsed under its own weight.

Danilov’s initial efforts to restore the Gorbachev-era essence to Soviet-Western relations were soundly rebuffed. Bush and British Prime Minister John Major were under enormous pressure from the respective legislatures to find some means of injuring the Soviets. The West German Chancellor didn’t even want to meet with Soviet representatives. The brutality of the Soviet Communists towards other Communist peoples in the Eastern European satellites caused the large socialist segments of the French and Italian political structures to unite with the generally anti-Soviet conservatives of those countries. The smaller members of NATO had neither the resources to supply Soviet needs nor the inclination to buck the leadership of their larger partners.

In May 1990, Danilov sweetened his offers to the United States. He was willing to pay for grain, machinery, loans, and technology with oil. The Soviet Union possessed stupendous petroleum reserves, as well as a massive production capacity. Danilov silenced protests within his own government by pointing out that he was maneuvering the Soviet Union into a position of advantage. If the US (or other Western states) took the oil deal, the USSR would be edging out other vendors of oil. This could only hurt the oil-producing countries that were aligned with the West, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Venezuela. Moreover, the US would be further discouraged from military adventures with the USSR by the necessity of keeping the oil supply line open. If initial deals proved satisfactory, the volume of trade could increase. American dependence on Soviet oil would grow as a result.

Though sorely tempted, the Bush White House refused the deal. The conservatives understood the risks of becoming in any way dependent on Soviet oil. The grain embargo was hurting the Midwest farmers, but the general mood in Congress remained stridently anti-Soviet. The UK and other NATO states refused to deal with the Soviets for the same reasons.

Without outside intervention, this impasse might have kept Soviet-Western relations in a deep freeze for years to come. However, unexpected events occurring in the Middle East would affect the situation between the Soviets and the West, as they had so many times before. This time, though, the outbreak of war in the Middle East would serve to bring the superpowers to an understanding.

On August 2 1990, Iraq invaded the emirate of Kuwait. Within days, the elite Iraqi Republican Guard overran the small but enormously wealthy country on Iraq’s southern border and stood poised to invade Saudi Arabia.

This would become the first real test of Danilov’s ability as leader of the Soviet Union. Within days of the August 2nd invasion, United States airborne troops were on their way to Saudi Arabia. The Western Allies quickly rallied to the American banner.

Defense Minister Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky advocated immediate and whole hearted support for Iraq. Though it was infuriating that Hussein had invaded Kuwait without either seeking permission or consultation, the fact remained that a major Soviet client had scored an impressive victory over Western interests. Kuwait was conquered in little more than three days, leaving the victorious Iraqi Republican Guard standing on the northeastern border of Saudi Arabia. The Persian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia was the major oil-producing zone of the country, and it was one of the richest areas in the world. On the order of a quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves lay between the border of Kuwait and the border of Qatar, and all Hussein had to do was reach out and take it. The Saudi armed forces were still mobilizing, and the only forces the United States could deploy in time to be of any worth were airmobile infantry units and a few Air Force squadrons. With a Soviet nuclear guarantee, the Iraqis would be free to use their tremendous conventional superiority. It was entirely possible for Iraq to capture the northeast portion of Saudi Arabia, thereby denying the enormous Saudi oil wealth to the West. With some Soviet support and a little luck, the Iraqis might capture the western shore of the Gulf south to Oman.

This was a winning position, Tukhachevsky argued. The West would not accept Iraq’s control of so much of the world’s oil. Even with the loss of her expeditionary force in northeastern Saudi Arabia, the United States and her allies would not sit idly by while Hussein’s Iraq controlled the lion’s share of the Gulf oil. By herself, Iraq could not hope to win a long-term war against the United States, her Western allies, and whatever Third World participants the US could bring into the picture. Iraq would have to have Soviet backing. That backing would give the Soviets de facto control over Iraq, which would give the USSR de facto control over a critical share of the world’s oil. The West then could be made to dance to the Soviet tune.

Danilov disagreed with the Tukhachevsky interpretation of the situation. If the oil really were so critical to the economies of the West, they would fight to regain control of it. The Iraqi Army might be able to get control of the Gulf Coast as far south as Oman in the short term, but how could the Iraqis reasonably be expected to control the whole Saudi Peninsula? Nothing less would do, Danilov opined, since the Western Allies would build up for a counteroffensive wherever they could. If the United States could build her forces in Dhahran, she would. If she were forced to build in Doha or Abu Dhabi or Muscat or Jiddah or Mocha, she would. The only way for the Iraqis to prevent an Allied build up on the Saudi Peninsula would be for the Iraqis to secure the entire perimeter of the Peninsula—or at least all the ports and all the potential beachheads. Could it really be supposed that the Iraqi Army, Navy, and Air Force were equal to this task? It was highly doubtful that the Iraqis could secure Dhahran and Riyadh simultaneously, much less march the whole length of the Peninsula against the opposition of the Saudi, Qatari, UAE, and Omani militaries, supplemented as they would be by US naval air assets and arriving Army, Marines, and Air Force assets. And even if they actually captured the Peninsula, the Iraqi Navy was completely incapable of securing the coastline against the US Navy and the Allied navies. By the same token, the Iraqi Air Force could not hope to stand against Allied air power operating off US Navy and Allied carriers in the Arabian Sea and Red Sea and Allied air power flying out of Israel and bases in the Horn of Africa. Without control of the air or sea around Saudi Arabia, there was no way for Iraq to secure the Saudi Peninsula in the long term.

Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky countered that this was where Soviet support would come in. Soviet Air Force (SAF) regiments could be moved into Saudi Arabia to support the Iraqis. The Soviet Navy possessed the world’s largest fleet of submarines. Surely this force would come in handy in preventing Allied landings along the Red Sea and Arabian Sea.

Such overt support for the Iraqis was tantamount to war with the West, Danilov countered. Was the Soviet Union really ready for this? Such a war could drag on for a year or two while the West built the necessary combat power in the areas adjacent to the Saudi Peninsula. While it might be hoped that the loss of Persian Gulf oil might bring the Western economies to their knees, the fact remained that the West had access to oil from several other sources: Mexico, Venezuela, Norway, Nigeria, and other nations. Some belt-tightening, rationing, and stepped-up production in other oil-producing countries could very well keep the Western economies on their feet—enough so to wage war in the Middle East, at any rate.

Saddam Hussein, leader of Iraq, was confronted by a number of problems at home which he hoped to alleviate by conquering little Kuwait. Having seized power in Iraq in 1979, Hussein soon thereafter came to blows with his neighbor Iran. Iran, a long time US ally, underwent a wracking revolution in 1979. The Shah of Iran was deposed, and a new fundamentalist Islamic government under the Ayotollah Khomeini took nominal control of Iran. At first, Khomeini’s grip on the country was shaky. Hussein decided to use this opportunity to settle a long standing difference of opinion between Iran and Iraq over control of the Shatt-al-Arab, the waterway that was the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates River and which linked Iraq to the Persian Gulf. Iraqi forces crossed the Shatt-al-Arab, secured the eastern bank, and drove east. Hussein believed that the Iranians would not be able to respond effectively, giving him control over the southwestern corner of Iran.

The Iraqis moved quite slowly, however, while the Iranians responded with surprising energy. Within weeks, the Iranians had driven the Iraqis back across the Shatt-al-Arab. Hussein asked for a truce, but the revolutionary Iranians refused. For the next eight years, Iran and Iraq would engage in a war of attrition that would see widespread (if inept) use of chemical weapons, missiles, and human wave attacks by one side or another. Hussein built the Iraqi Army to more than a million men, with a robust park of tanks, APCs, artillery, trucks, and other materiel for mechanized war. Finally, in 1988 the Iraqis launched a series of counteroffensives that broke the back of the Iranians.

The Iraqi economy was devastated by the war. The national debt was huge, despite considerable aid from other Persian Gulf states that did not want to see Iranian-style revolutionaries increase their power. With the end of the war, the Gulf states wanted their money back. Hussein could not demobilize his million-man army because there were no jobs for the soldiers. Worse, the price of oil—Iraq’s chief export—was going down at the end of the 1980’s. Desperate, Hussein turned his attention to Kuwait.

Kuwait was one of the oil-rich Gulf states which provided loans to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. The little emirate had not existed until the demise of the Ottoman Empire, at which time the British created the modern map of the Middle East. Under the Ottomans, Kuwait had been a part of what was to become Iraq. Given the very limited access to the Persian Gulf enjoyed by Iraq, the Iraqi state had long coveted Kuwait. The situation under the Ottomans gave Iraq a pretext of ownership, if a somewhat flimsy one. Further, Kuwait was tremendously wealthy.

For Hussein, conquest of Kuwait promised to solve a number of problems. Control of additional oil wealth would help the cash-flow problem. Eradication of the Kuwaiti state would obviate much of the Iraqi debt while bringing billions into the Iraqi coffers. Conquest of Kuwait also might bring the other Gulf states to the table in a much more compliant frame of mind regarding Iraq’s debts to them. Iraq would have an invaluable addition to her coastline, plus the port of Kuwait City. It was a promising package. Thus on August 2 1990, Hussein sent his elite Republican Guard across the Kuwaiti border.

Worldwide condemnation was immediate. The United States demanded that the Iraqis withdraw from Kuwait and began immediate deployment of the 82nd Infantry Division (Airborne) to Saudi Arabia, which now appeared to be under threat of imminent invasion. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) was now faced with the war in the Persian Gulf for which they had trained and prepared for more than a decade.

Although the United States and France both did business with Iraq, the principal supplier of Iraqi military hardware was the Soviet Union. Soviet advisors and technicians were to be found throughout Iraq, and relations between Baghdad and Moscow were cordial. In the West, the initial assumption was that the new hard-line Soviet government was behind the invasion of Kuwait. Comparisons with the Korean War were on the airwaves and in the halls of power throughout the West before the Iraqi Army had reached the southern border of little Kuwait. If the heavy divisions of the Republican Guard did strike into northeastern Saudi Arabia, they would grind the light troops of the US 82nd Airborne into the sand. By the time the first elements of the 82nd Airborne Division were winging their way to the Gulf, the only real question seemed to be whether the Soviets would direct Hussein to invade Saudi Arabia, thereby bringing the majority of the world’s petroleum reserves into Soviet hands.

In fact, the Soviets were as surprised as anyone by this turn of events. Hussein had neither sought nor received approval from the Kremlin for an invasion of Kuwait. He ignored Soviet attempts at communication during his two-day operation in Kuwait. Only when the US began deploying CENTCOM did Hussein respond to Moscow’s calls.

Now, with the Iraqi Army in firm control of Kuwait, the Kremlin faced a dilemma. How to make the most of the situation?

The Kremlin had ears, and Danilov knew the Americans thought the Soviet Union was behind the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Indeed, it was hard to see how the Americans would believe otherwise. The US had persisted in seeing every Communist action around the world as a part of a grand scheme directed from Moscow long after it should have been obvious that this was not the case. The Americans blamed the Soviets for Korea. To a lesser extent, they blamed the Soviets for Vietnam (despite the fact that the majority of aid for North Vietnam came from China). In the Gulf in 1990, the US was presented with a worst-case scenario of a Soviet client invading an important oil-producing state that was friendly to the West. How could the Americans not see it something done to Soviet advantage?

Many of the Kremlin hard liners argued the very same thing. Though they had not instigated the Iraqi action, the Soviets stood to gain enormously from it. With no effort on their own part, the Soviets were looking at a situation that could deny the West some of the Gulf oil upon which it was dependent. With a little more urging and a guarantee of Soviet protection, Hussein could be moved to take northeastern Saudi Arabia and most of the Saudi oil fields. With the majority of the world’s oil reserves in Soviet hands, the West could be leveraged into providing food and loans to the USSR. A Soviet nuclear guarantee to Iraq would prevent the Americans from using nuclear weapons against Iraq, while a steady supply of Soviet parts and equipment to Iraq would be more than sufficient to offset whatever forces the American could get to the Gulf over the next few months.

Danilov and a few of his more visionary allies saw things differently. The hard liners were right that Iraqi seizure of the Saudi oil fields would put the West in a bad situation. An Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia was likely to backfire. While it was true that the heavy divisions of the Republican Guard would destroy the 82nd Airborne, the United States hardly could be counted on to take this lying down. CENTCOM would continue to deploy to Saudi Arabia—to whatever port could receive the American equipment. The Iraqi Army lacked the troops and the logistical capability to occupy the ports of Saudi Arabia on the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, plus the ports of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman. The United States would base air and ground units in whatever portion of the Saudi Peninsula was available to them, then open operations against Iraq. The result would be a massive US expenditure, a general Western shift to non-Gulf sources of oil and an overall lessening of consumption, and an heightened American enmity with the USSR that would last for years to come.

The Kremlin hard liners countered that the United States had no stomach for a protracted war in the Gulf. With the aid of Soviet submarines and other naval power, the ports ringing the Saudi Peninsula might be closed to the Americans. Faced with the prospect of fighting their way into Omani or Saudi ports, followed by a campaign over long stretches of desert against an opponent using modern Soviet weapons, the Americans would concede the point. The fact that intense fighting in northeastern Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would ruin the very oil wells the US wanted to control would only make the option of bargaining with the Soviet Union that much more attractive.

Seeing that the Kremlin was deadlocked on the issue of whether the Americans would continue to fight in the Gulf once the 82nd Airborne had been smashed, Danilov changed tactics. He asked his fellow top Communists, who sets policy for the Soviet Union? Regardless of the potential usefulness of current development in the Gulf, the fact remained that Hussein had not obtained Soviet permission before starting his adventure in Kuwait. As a result, the Soviet Union was thrust into a situation in which could not plan, only react. Supporting Iraq now would set a very bad precedent. Other Soviet client states might take unilateral action for their own reasons in their parts of the world, thereby dragging the Soviet Union into one confrontation with the West after another. Sooner or later, the Americans would fight. More to the point, Moscow was supposed to set policy for the client states, not the other way around.

In the light of the current situation, Danilov and a few of his supporters did not agree that the West could be extorted into trading food for oil. More likely, the West would be so incensed and threatened that they would refuse to trade. Non-Arab members of OPEC, as well as non-OPEC oil producers like Mexico and Norway, would be glad to make up the difference in global oil production and reap the profits of higher oil prices.

There was another factor to consider. Hussein had invaded Kuwait because his economy was ailing. Even with Kuwait under his control, Hussein owed billions to other countries. Defaulting on that debt or even conquering the other Gulf states (a feat which the Soviet advisors in Iraq did not think was possible) would not solve all of Iraq’s problems, because Hussein needed hard currency to provide jobs for his million-man army. The Soviet Union could not provide hard currency for Iraq. To obtain hard currency, Hussein would have to sell oil to the West sooner or later, at which point the relationships between the USSR, Iraq, and the United States would become quite complex. Moscow might be put in the position of currying favor with a client state as opposed to the other way around, which again was contrary to the way things were supposed to be.

As the US 82nd Airborne was landing in Saudi Arabia, the United States began assembling support in the United Nations. Most of the UN believed as the United States did that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait was a Soviet inspired scheme. Western governments which had rebuffed Danilov’s efforts to obtain grain, credits, and machinery saw the invasion of Kuwait as a Soviet response. Given the events of the Black Winter, the United States had a certain currency in its efforts to build a coalition of nations to oppose the Iraqi action.

The US ambassador to the UN issued a thinly veiled accusation that the USSR had masterminded the invasion. Naturally, the Soviet ambassador denied any wrongdoing.

There was also the uncomfortable fact that the Soviet Union was highly dependent upon the West for grain. Danilov was openly scornful of the notion that the West could be extorted into selling food to the Soviet Union. Soviet forces might get control of the Persian Gulf, but what would the Soviet people eat during the victory celebration?

Danilov proposed instead that Hussein be left to his own devices. He had invited war with the West without consulting with Moscow. Now the Soviet Union could reverse some of the damage done during the Black Winter by allowing the West to liberate Kuwait. Western grain and loans would continue to come in, and the Soviet Union could set about improving her position for the next time such an opportunity presented itself.

This last argument settled the matter for most of the Tukhachevskyites, if not Tukhachevsky himself. The Kremlin might be willing to chance defeat on the Saudi Peninsula a year or two down the road, but short-term starvation for the Soviet people would jeopardize the position of the new regime. The change of power was still too fresh in the minds of the Soviet people.

At this point, the Soviet Defense Minister, who previously had supported getting Hussein to invade Saudi Arabia, changed his argument. If a US led alliance did assemble forces in Iraq, as appeared likely, the enemy would be providing the Soviet Union an excellent chance to see the Western powers fight. The mood at the UN made it seem like the Americans were going to fight after all. That being the case, and given that Hussein had not sought permission for his actions, why not let Iraq stand on its own? If Hussein did not quickly give up Kuwait, the US-led alliance would have to attack. This would be a superb opportunity to observe the state-of-the-art in American war fighting without any risk to the USSR. At the same time, the USSR could send the message to the other client states that if they acted on their own, they would be hung out to dry. The Soviet Union would not be dragged into regional conflicts without prior consultation.


With the support of the Defense Minister, Danilov made his policy choice. He invited Bush to an emergency summit meeting in Switzerland in the second week of August. There, he and Bush came to terms. In two days of meetings that were often one-on-one, Danilov made it clear to Bush that the USSR had nothing to do with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and that the Soviet Union wanted no confrontation with the West. Bush told Danilov that he wanted Moscow to order Baghdad out of Kuwait. Danilov replied that he didn’t believe Hussein would respond to that, but he promised to give the strongest advice he possibly could.

To further impress Bush with his desire to normalize relations with the West, Danilov offered to issue a public proclamation condemning the Iraqi invasion. Soviet military aid would cease until Iraq pulled out of Kuwait. Perhaps most importantly, the USSR would support a UN resolution demanding an Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait backed by military action if Hussein refused. Further, the Kremlin would line up as many of its clients as possible to support the US-led effort in the UN.

Bush returned to Washington and waited for the Soviets to play their part at the UN. When Danilov proved good to his word, Bush had the grain embargo lifted. When some members of Congress protested, Bush made it clear that he felt the Danilov regime was one the US could work with “under certain conditions.”

Hussein refused to give up Kuwait. He was certain the West would bargain with him for the oil. He was equally certain that the USSR would back him again if he could score a battlefield success. Also, successful resistance on the part of the Iraqis would put Hussein in the forefront of the Arab world. This would make him impossible for the superpowers to simply manhandle. The Iraqi Army began to dig into Kuwait.

By the time the US XVIII Airborne Corps had finished its deployment to Saudi Arabia, it was obvious that Iraq was not going to invade Saudi Arabia. It was equally obvious that the US led Coalition was going to have to eject the Iraqis from Kuwait. With the support of the Soviet Union, the Coalition had brought nations like Syria into the fold. To liberate Kuwait, the US was going to need more forces and additional diplomacy.

At a second summit, this one in Reykjavik, Bush and Danilov talked candidly about their desire for good relations. Notes written by Bush during the meeting indicate that Danilov told him a good deal more about his thinking than even people in the Kremlin knew. Danilov believed that the United States and the Soviet Union would always be rivals, but they need not be enemies. He told Bush he believed the military competition between East and West was no longer a viable option. He told Bush that while the Party fully intended to retain power in the Soviet Union, he intended to introduce reforms. He would have to do so in a more gradual manner than Gorbachev had done, or the remaining hard liners would purge him as well. However, he hoped that over the course of the next ten years the US and USSR could agree to a 25 50% reduction in nuclear weapons and a 25 30% reduction in conventional forces. Beyond that, he hoped that the US and USSR could enter into trade agreements that would satisfy both their needs and give Danilov the political capital he would need to further advance reforms.

Danilov promised to back a US-sponsored resolution authorizing the Coalition to use force to liberate Kuwait. He told Bush that the Soviet ambassador would approve verbiage that enabled Coalition aircraft to use Iraqi airspace and Coalition ground forces to use Iraqi territory to the degree that said usage supported the goal of Kuwaiti liberation. However, Danilov stipulated that Iraq otherwise was to remain intact. Hussein was to remain in power in Iraq. Destruction of Iraqi equipment and personnel pursuant to the liberation of Kuwait was acceptable to the Soviet Union. Destruction of Iraqi equipment and personnel pursuant to the destruction of the Hussein regime was not.

Bush understood what Danilov was saying readily enough. The USSR would keep its clients essentially intact, though the clients were not free to do as they pleased. Back in Washington, the Bush Administration argued the virtues of being bound by such an agreement with the Soviets. If the US complied with the Soviet demand for a continuing Hussein-led Iraq that kept all its territory, there would be a de facto policy of detente. Had not the Reagan Administration built up US military might for a more aggressive policy? How would American clients feel about a policy that guaranteed that Soviet clients on their border would be assured their political survival (and likely rebuilding) by the proposed Iraq deal?

Voices of realism pointed out that agreeing to Danilov’s condition was nothing more than the policy of containment the US had been applying for decades. Not since the Korean War had the US attempted to liberate or conquer a Soviet client by force of arms. There did not appear to be any good opportunities for that on the horizon, either—even if future US leadership felt inclined to go that route. Danilov was giving the US his permission to do what was necessary to liberate Kuwait without any threat of Soviet involvement. This represented an opportunity to put the US armed forces through their paces without risking an all out war with the Soviet Union. The deal was too good to pass up.


1991

The US military wanted to use some of its European formations in the effort to liberate Kuwait. The experience would be invaluable in any future European conflict. The Army tapped VII US Corps with two heavy divisions and an armored cavalry regiment. Not yet ready to trust the Soviets completely, the Army moved two divisions and an armored cavalry regiment from CONUS to Europe before moving VII US Corps to Saudi Arabia.*

[III US Corps moves to Europe along with 5th ID(M). Two National Guard formations, 35th ID(M) and 116th ACR are called up and deployed to Europe to take over the duties of VII US Corps. 4th ID(M), which is supposed to transit by air to Europe to draw POMCUS equipment, remains on alert at Fort Carson, CO. 1st CD, 2/2nd AD, and 3rd ACR, all of which are slated for deployment to Europe, are replaced by 49th AD (TXNG), 194th Armd Bde (sep), and 278th ACR (TNNG) as CONUS-based reserves for air deployment and drawing of POMCUS equipment. The USMC activates 4th Marine Division to take the place of 1st Marine Division at Camp Lejeune, which is deploying to Saudi Arabia.]

The Coalition build up in Saudi Arabia continued through the end of 1990. Eventually, twenty-seven nations would provide ground, air, or naval combat forces, with another twelve nations providing non combat support units, financial support for the war, or significant humanitarian support. The main combat power of the Coalition came from the United States, which had five heavy Army divisions, two light Army divisions, two armored cavalry regiments, two Marine divisions, plus separate Marine brigades in its ground forces. Air elements included more than 1300 combat aircraft, while major naval elemis included eight aircraft carriers and two battleship groups. Contingents of division size or greater came from Egypt, France, Kuwait, Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the UK. Contingents of brigade size came from Oman, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and Bangladesh.

UN Resolution 678 stifled ongoing objections from hawkish anti-Soviets in the Bush Administration regarding the fate of Iraq. Passed on November 29 1990, the resolution authorized the US-led Coalition to liberate Kuwait. The overthrow of the Iraqi government and/or conquest of the Iraqi state were not included among the authorized actions. The Soviet Union deliberately stayed on the sidelines in the formulation of the resolution. Bush pointed out that this was evidence that détente was in the international interest and that the United States would reap the greatest benefit from respecting international opinion on the matter.

The Coalition opened its air offensive against Iraq on January 17, 1991. In an extraordinary display of technical prowess and fighting skills, the Coalition air assets literally annihilated one of the densest air defense networks in the world, then severed the logistical links between the Iraq and the Iraqi forces in the Kuwait Theater of Operations (KTO). Aerial bombardment had robbed the Iraqi forces in the KTO of fifty percent of their combat power by the time the Coalition ground offensive got underway a month later.

At the start of the ground offensive, the Iraqi Army had approximately thirty-seven divisions in the KTO. Somewhat more than half of these were non-mechanized infantry divisions occupying extensively prepared defensive positions. Backing these divisions were eight armored and mechanized divisions of the regular Iraqi Army; still further back were six divisions of the elite Republican Guard. This daunting assembly of conventional forces was overrun, routed, and destroyed by Coalition ground forces in a sweeping mechanized offensive that lasted four days. Losses to the Iraqi Army included more than 2,500 tanks, comparable numbers of APCs and IFVs, huge quantities of other equipment, and more than a quarter-million men wounded, killed, or captured.

True to his agreement with Danilov and the letter of the UN resolution authorizing the use of force in Kuwait, Bush stopped the Coalition forces south of the Euphrates River. The Americans pulled back, and Saddam Hussein was left in control of Iraq.

The results of the Second Gulf War (the First Gulf War was fought between Iran and Iraq) were far-reaching. The emirate of Kuwait was liberated. The oil rich Gulf states of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman were more closely tied to the West than ever before. The United States had put its forces and doctrine to the test, resulting in the most one-sided victory in the recorded history of warfare. It was a sea change in the global perception of the balance of power.

Danilov had scored a major victory over the hawks in his own government. Most of them were forced to admit that the United States would have destroyed any Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia that did not involve massive quantities of Soviet troops. By staying on the sidelines, Danilov had secured fresh grain shipments and a measure of East-West good will that would have been difficult to imagine a year prior. The Soviet Union had shown a willingness to respect international law outside its existing sphere of influence. The other Soviet client states were effectively reined in by the example of Iraq. And the Soviets now had a sobering idea of the capabilities of the United States. Danilov had accomplished all this with virtually no cost to the USSR.

In the West, Bush was able to partially redeem himself in the eyes of a public who still ridiculed him for inaction during the Black Winter. This was unfair to Bush, who had no good options at the time. Unfortunately for Bush, the stigma of the Black Winter weighed more heavily against him than his success in the Gulf, even though the results of the Second Gulf War were far more important for the United States. Bush would be voted out of office in 1992.

When the guns had cooled in Iraq and Kuwait, all parties moved quickly to establish themselves in the new order. The USSR offered to rebuild the Iraqi Army in exchange for oil. In the wake of the war, the USSR found willing Western and Third World buyers for its oil; the Soviets accepted Iraqi oil as payment in kind, then sold the oil on the international market for hard currency. Hussein readily accepted the Soviet offer, despite the fact that his sponsors had abandoned him so completely. The Western-aligned Gulf states established a new defensive alliance. Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) forces were stationed in Kuwait to discourage further Iraqi adventures. The United States left a single heavy brigade in Kuwait and pre positioned the equipment for the balance of a heavy division. Iraq rapidly began rearming. The GCC girded for a likely second round of conflict with Iraq, not trusting the apparent agreement between the US and USSR.

Danilov’s deal with George Bush of the United States worked out splendidly for the Soviet Union. Kuwait was liberated, the Iraqi military was savaged, and Hussein remained in power. Hussein was forced back into the arms of the Soviet Union, who quickly undertook to re arm the Iraqi dictator. The Soviets got a front-row seat to the show, from which they learned that US capabilities were even more advanced than the Soviets had supposed. Danilov’s restraint appeared even wiser. Western grain continued to flow to the USSR, as did Western credits. In the end, Danilov gained immeasurably in the eyes of the Party and of the international community.

[natehale1971]

1992

The Red Army launches a major program of modernization using the lessons of Desert Storm to make sure that any ground combat between the Soviet Union and NATO will not be as one sided as the US-Led War against Iraq. The Soviet Union attempts to create a professional NCO Corps in a manner similar to that of the West and many of the nations of the Warsaw Pact.

Inside the Kremlin, existing tensions between the various factions of the Soviet leadership became more pronounced after the start of the war. Since the coup in 1989, the highest echelon of Soviet leadership had begun to split into two groups: the Danilovians and the Tukhachevskyites. The former group, led by Premier Dmitri Danilov, had allied themselves with the latter, led by Defense Minister Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky, for the purpose of deposing and replacing the Gorbachev government. However, the alliance between the two groups was always a shaky one. The Danilov group, smaller and less powerful than the Tukhachevsky cabal, was made up of true reformers. The Tukhachevskyites were arch conservative Communists whose principal goal was to hold onto power. The Danilovians needed the Tukhachevskyites for their control of the military, much of the security apparatus, and the economy. The Tukhachevskyites needed the Danilovians because Danilov was the only rival to Tukhachevskyite power in the KGB and because Danilov was much more palatable to the mid level Communist Party officials and to the international community than any of the Tukhachevskyites. From the start, the intent of the Tukhachevskyites had been to use Danilov as a front man while Tukhachevsky and his cohorts wielded the real power in the USSR.

Danilov proved to be a master power broker, however. He spoke the Tukhachevskyite language fluently. He reminded the Tukhachevskyites, together and separately, that unless the Soviet economy were fixed, there could easily be another coup attempt. Worse, there might be open revolution. Even a successful counter revolution on the part of the Soviet security apparatus would further erode the Soviet economy. Grudgingly, the Tukhachevskyites empowered Danilov to enact most of the reforms he sought.


After the Black Winter, The Soviet Union had replaced Egon Krenz with the return of Communist Hardliner Erich Honecker to power as the leader of the German Democratic Republic. And under Honecker’s leadership, the DDR had quickly proven itself a major stronghold for hardliner communist leadership. Over the next few years Honecker had quickly became a major hurdle for many of the much needed reforms that Danilov had wished to implement throughout the Communist Bloc, and this was why the Kremlin took a direct hand in having Hans Modrow chosen to replace Erich Honecker as the leader of the German Democratic Republic after Honecker had been strongly urged by Danilov to retire due to complications that had increased with his failing health. Hans Modrow quickly proved himself to be much more responsive to the reforms and policies that had been started by to modernize the economy of Eastern Europe.


1993

Madrow reestablishes the office of the President of the German Democratic Republic as a ceremonial head of state with no official governing powers. The creation of this ceremonial position allows the average citizen to elect a representative from any political party or organization. <name> will become the first elected President of the German Democratic Republic, from the <>.

President of the DDR (Head of State).
Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the DDR (Head of Government).
President of the People’s Chamber of the DDR (Head of Parliament).


1994

On 29 May 1994, Erich Honecker dies from cancer. <Hans Modrow> uses the death of his predecessor to create a national week of mourning by giving him a state funeral with full ceremony. This allows <Modrow> to launch a major reorganization of East German political power, and ends the stranglehold of the Socialist Unity Party of Germany over political power in the DDR. Even with the modernization of the East German government, <Madrow> does not change the fact that the position of the Chairman of the Council of State of the German Democratic Republic would remain the supreme leader of the DDR.


1995

In August of 1995, a group of world renown archeologists whom where working in the Harbor of Hong Kong searching wrecks from the Second World war discover a lost treaty between the United Kingdom and both sides of the Chinese Civil War that gives the British the rights to Hong Kong in perpetuity (along with several other nations being granted the same rights to their ‘colonial concessions’ such as the treaty made with the German government-in-exile after Nanking massacre). This causes a series of political problems and tensions between the United Kingdom and the People’s Republic of China that ambassadors and negotiators from both sides to hold a series of summits to decide their countries future course of action. The People’s Republic of China hold talks with East and West German representatives in hopes of economic assistance in exchange for the opening of a neo-colonial concession.



1996 - 1999

After nearly a year of intense five party negotiations, the United Kingdom is able to get the People’s Republic of China to solve the "Hong Kong question" with a referendum of the citizens of the colonial concessions being allowed to decide their own fate. The referendum to decide the future of Hong Kong and the other concessions are held and the people of the cities all choose overwhelmingly to remain independent of the People’s Republic of China. In exchange the People’s Republic of China is able to get the British government and other foreign nations to agree to pay ‘taxes’ to the Chinese Government as well as giving a sweet-heart trade deal that would allow the continued growth of the Chinese economy. This agreement has placed the British Government as the primary powerbroker who is able to negotiate with foreign investment groups and nations and the People’s Republic of China to create new neo-colonial concessions to allow for the economic growth to assist the Chinese economic miracle.

By 1996, Danilov appeared to Defense Minister Nikolai Ivanovich Tukhachevsky to be getting out of control. Danilov’s economic reforms were showing real progress. Relations with the West were as warm as they had been at any time in the history of the Soviet Union. Industrial productivity was up, and for the first time in her history the Soviet Union was feeding herself. Many luke warm Tukhachevskyites were converting to Danilovism. The Soviet people were enjoying more liberties than they had in a generation—more so even than under Gorbachev. And they were demanding more. Just as it had been under Gorbechev, the very existence of the Soviet state as Stalin and Khrushchev had known it was threatened.

Unfortunately, there was only so much Tukhachevsky could do about it. Danilov was terribly popular among the people, the KGB, and most of the Party. His reforms were working, and everybody seemed to be doing better. Simply doing away with him wasn’t an option. Tukhachevsky had to find a way to discredit Danilov before replacing him.

War with China seemed the perfect way. By the late 1990’s, it was apparent that China would have to be put in her place sooner or later anyway. A war that dragged out a bit longer than it should have would fit the bill nicely. China would be set back, while much of the economic progress Danilov had made would evaporate. With Danilov out of favor, Tukhachevsky could move to replace him or at least strip him of much of his power.

Through a series of carefully-orchestrated maneuvers, Tukhachevsky knew that he could bring the Soviet Union and China to the edge of war, then let mutual mistrust and the situation on the border take their natural courses.

Exactly how and why Danilov allowed things to evolve as they did over the next four years is still a mystery. He had much better control over events earlier in his career, when he was technically weaker. It has been suggested that he didn’t really believe war would start. It has been suggested that Danilov believed a last-minute deal with Chinese Premier Zhu would head off a war and bring even greater prestige to himself. Whatever the reason, by the end of August 2000, Dmitri Danilov would find his country involved in a war he had never wanted.

Selling this war would become a painful exercise for Danilov. There was very little he could say to the West that had any meaning beyond the usual propaganda, though he dutifully made his efforts at the UN and in the capitals of the West. For the most part, Danilov was forced to trade in much of the good will he had built in the West over the past decade in an effort to keep the economic credits flowing.

Since there was little the Soviets could do to justify the war in world opinion, it was important that they convince the world that the USSR was winning the war. Superiority of Soviet arms and soldiery would be its own justification in the end. As a result, Soviet propaganda efforts initially focused on the excellent progress being enjoyed by Soviet armed forces in Manchuria. Never mind who was right—the Soviets were winning.

By contrast, China would find it quite easy to portray herself as the innocent victim. Though the Western media were never given the free reign on the Manchurian battlefields they would have liked, images of smashed Chinese villages and dead and injured Chinese civilians poured back to Western television virtually from the outset of the war. The Chinese Communist Party strove to play up two key images: the suffering of the Chinese people and the heroic resistance of the People’s Liberation Army. In this effort they were largely successful.

Beijing quickly moved to exploit the swell of sympathy among Westerners—particularly among Americans. The large Chinese-American community was solicited to provide financial support, political support, and propaganda support for China. Though not successful everywhere, Chinese-Americans answered the call of the motherland in large numbers. Though many conservative Americans were delighted to see the two great Communist powers at war, at least as many Americans were telling pollsters that the gallant Chinese people deserved the support of the United States against the Soviet aggressors. Washington took notice.

Throughout the Western political circles, the initial reaction was one of muted relief. Despite the warming of Soviet-Western relations during the first half of the 1990’s, NATO remained ready to defend against a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Many were concerned that Danilov’s Soviet Union was a more dangerous Soviet Union because her core strength was greater. A Soviet Union with a healthy economy and the ability to feed herself might come under the control of an aggressive militarist. At the same time, the growing economic power of China was causing concern in the West. How long would it be before China’s burgeoning economic power translated itself into military power?

Already the mid 1990’s, the People’s Liberation Army was undergoing a significant modernization. With the Soviet Union and China at war, the West appeared to have killed two birds without actually having to throw its own stone.

Naturally, there was some concern about the war going nuclear. This fear was at its most intense during the first few days of the war, when chemical weapons were used on a large scale both on the front lines and in the rear areas. Some Western military analysts feared that whoever got the worst of the chemical exchange might go nuclear as a means of rectifying the situation. Fortunately, the chemical exchange died down without the use of nuclear weapons; however, there were several very tense days at the UN as Western mediators attempted to get both sides to pledge to no-first-use of nuclear weapons (despite the fact that both parties to the war already had pledged as much).

In Europe, there was some alarm over the rapid rate of advance of Soviet ground forces in the opening weeks of the campaign. If the Soviets could make such short work of the PLA, how would they fare against the much less numerous Western European ground forces? Speculation was rife that NATO would be incapable of stopping a sudden Soviet sweep to the English Channel. As the Soviet advance ground to a halt, such irresponsible talk died down, though.

World opinion elsewhere varied. India gleefully watched one of her two principal rivals stagger under the heavy Soviet blows. Pakistan issued belligerent statements in support of China, one of her chief benefactors. Without China to counterbalance India, the Pakistani security situation was far more tenuous.

Generally, the Soviet client states gave their support for the USSR, while their Western clients loudly decried the invasion. Many countries in trouble spots around the globe heightened their military readiness, and some even mobilized additional troops. However, for the most part things settled down in the countries not directly affected by the fighting. Notable exceptions were the two Koreas, Vietnam, and Pakistan.


2000

Exactly how and why Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov allowed things to evolve as they did over the past four years is still a mystery. He had much better control over events earlier in his career, when he was technically weaker. It has been suggested that he didn’t really believe war would start. It has been suggested that Danilov truly believed that a last-minute deal with Chinese Premier Zhu would head off a war and bring even greater prestige for himself. Whatever the reason, by the end of August 2000, Konstantin Dmitrievich Danilov would find his country involved in a war he had never wanted.

Selling this war would become a painful exercise for Danilov. There was very little he could say to the West that had any meaning beyond the usual propaganda, though he dutifully made his efforts at the UN and in the capitals of the West. For the most part, Danilov was forced to trade in much of the good will he had built in the West over the past decade in an effort to keep the economic credits flowing.

Since there was little the Soviets could do to justify the war in world opinion, it was important that they convince the world that the USSR was winning the war. Superiority of20Soviet arms and soldiery would be its own justification in the end. As a result, Soviet propaganda efforts initially focused on the excellent progress being enjoyed by Soviet armed forces in Manchuria. Never mind who was right—the Soviets were winning.

By contrast, China would find it quite easy to portray herself as the innocent victim. Though the Western media were never given the free reign on the Manchurian battlefields they would have liked, images of smashed Chinese villages and dead and injured Chinese civilians poured back to Western television virtually from the outset of the war. The Chinese Communist Party strove to play up two key images: the suffering of the Chinese people and the heroic resistance of the People’s Liberation Army. In this effort they were largely successful.

Beijing quickly moved to exploit the swell of sympathy among Westerners—particularly among Americans. The large Chinese-American community was solicited to provide financial support, political support, and propaganda support for China. Though not successful everywhere, Chinese-Americans answered the call of the motherland in large numbers. Though many conservative Americans were delighted to see the two great Communist powers at war, at least as many Americans were telling pollsters that the gallant Chinese people deserved the support of the United States against the Soviet aggressors. Washington took notice.

Throughout the Western political circles, the initial reaction was one of muted relief. Despite the warming of Soviet-Western relations during the first half of the 1990’s, NATO remained ready to defend against a Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Many were concerned that Danilov’s Soviet Union was a more dangerous Soviet Union because her core strength was now greater. A Soviet Union with a healthy economy and the ability to feed itself might come under the control of an aggressive militarist at a future date. At the same time, the growing economic power of China was causing concern in the West. How long would it be before China’s burgeoning economic power translated itself into military power?

Already the mid 1990’s, the People’s Liberation Army was undergoing a significant modernization. With the Soviet Union and China at war, the West appeared to have killed two birds without actually having to throw its own stone.

Naturally, there was some concern about the war going nuclear. This fear was at its most intense during the first few days of the war, when chemical weapons were used on a large scale both on the front lines and in the rear areas. Some Western military analysts feared that whoever got the worst of the chemical exchange might go nuclear as a means of rectifying the situation. Fortunately, the chemical exchange died down without the use of nuclear weapons; however, there were several very tense days at the UN as Western mediators attempted to get both sides to pledge to no-first-use of nuclear weapons (despite the fact that both parties to the war already had pledged as much).

In Europe, there was some alarm over the rapid rate of advance of Soviet ground forces in the opening weeks of the campaign. If the Soviets could make such short work of the PLA, how would they fare against the much less numerous Western European ground forces? Speculation was rife that NATO would be incapable of stopping a sudden Soviet sweep to the English Channel. As the Soviet advance ground to a halt, such irresponsible talk died down, though.

World opinion elsewhere varied. India gleefully watched one of her two principal rivals stagger under the heavy Soviet blows. Pakistan issued belligerent statements in support of China, one of her chief benefactors. Without China to counterbalance India, the Pakistani security situation was far more tenuous.

Generally, the Soviet client states gave their support for the USSR, while their Western clients loudly decried the invasion. Many countries in trouble spots around the globe heightened their military readiness, and some even mobilized additional troops. However, for the most part things settled down in the countries not directly affected by the fighting. Notable exceptions were the two Koreas, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

As seen, after a period of increasing tension and escalating border incidents, a full-scale war had erupted between the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China. The Red Army had enjoyed rapid initial successes, and tank columns had roared deep into the northern Chinese industrial heartland.

However, the Chinese surpassed the expectations of most military analysts in their ability to mobilize reserves from the interior and shift them to the fighting front. While the Soviets continued to make impressive gains, their losses mounted and the tempo of advance slowed. Soon, large bodies of citizens' militia were operating in the rear areas, attacking installations and destroying supply convoys. More and more front line troops had to be detailed to mopping up these patches of guerrilla resistance, and the advance ground to a halt.

When the main Chinese conventional forces counterattacked, to the amazement of the world's military experts, large pockets of Soviet troops were formed. Most of the Soviet units, due to their superior mobility and tremendous firepower, were able to fight their way out of the pockets, but Soviet losses were great and the front was shattered.

The Soviet Union had already been mobilizing additional troops from the western military districts, and this was now placed on an emergency priority basis. As a stop-gap, a half dozen combat ready divisions were withdrawn from Eastern Europe and sent to the Far East. But the Far Eastern Front had become a meat grinder, which devoured divisions as quickly as they could be committed. As factory output switched more and more to wartime production, the flow of consumer goods dwindled to a trickle and standards of living in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union fell.

Motor vehicles and railroad rolling stock were increasingly drawn out of the civilian sector to support the war effort. As the first snows of winter fell, the Soviets began soliciting the other members of the Warsaw Pact for volunteer formations to serve on the Far Eastern Front. Resistance to this was surprisingly strong, but by the new year the first Polish, Czech, and East German divisions were traveling east by rail. At least one Hungarian and Bulgarian division would follow once they finished mobilizing and re-equipping with more modern weapons. No Romanians would be going east.


2001

Their ranks swollen with fresh troops, the Pact forces launched a spring offensive against the Chinese. Despite good initial gains, the drive soon stalled, with further horrendous casualties. Winter had witnessed a flood of new, modern equipment through Chinese ports from the NATO nations, particularly the United States. Now Soviet and Pact tanks were not facing obsolete wire-guided missiles, but modern Tank Breaker and Assault Breaker systems that made the massed tank assaults, which had been so successful the year before, suicidal.

New tactics were devised, but more troops were needed. Most Soviet category II readiness divisions were mobilized and sent to the Far East by mid-year, and almost a quarter of the category I divisions from the Eastern European garrisons were committed. Many of the low readiness category III divisions were upgraded to category II or mobilized, and for the first time in fifty years the mobilization-only divisions began training.

Appalled at the losses taken in their expeditionary forces, the other Eastern European members of the Pact agreed only reluctantly to provide more troops. In June, however, a small group of senior officers of the East German Army opened secret talks with a select group of their counterparts in the Bundesheer and Luftwaffe, the army and air force of the Federal Republic of Germany.

In September, a third call for troops from Eastern Europe was made, to be ready for movement by mid-October whether their equipment and training were complete or not. On October 7th, 2001, the Bundeswehr crossed the frontier between East and West Germany and began attacking Soviet garrison units still in the country. The army of the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) remained quietly in barracks.

Having not only having been appalled with how the best troops that the DDR could provide where treated by the Soviet Union and with the continuing increase of how harsh the Soviet Forces in Germany where treating the East German citizens who lived near their bases, Hans Modrow realized that his options where severely limited in how to respond and slowly starts to sink into a severe depression. When he received reports that the West Germans had crossed the frontier he made a live radio broadcast where he asked the East German people to remain in their homes, and attempt to avoid conflict with either NATO or Soviets. Hours later when the commander of Soviet Armed Forces in Germany demanded that Modrow order the East German NVA to immediately mobilize and assist in driving the Bundeswehr forces out of the country, Modrow politely refused the order. Even when the Soviet Primer Danilov had personally called Modrow and ordered him to mobilize the E. German NVA, he once more had to politely refuse the order, and he stated that he simply knew that he no longer actually had the power or authority to issue orders the NVA.

Despite the initial surprise, the fifteen Soviet divisions remaining in Germany put up a spirited resistance and were soon joined by two more divisions from Poland and three from the garrison of Czechoslovakia. By November 15th, there were also two Czech divisions and four Polish divisions in Germany, their orders to leave for the Far East hurriedly rescinded. To the surprise of the Western nations, the Czechs and Poles fought well, as neither wished to see a reunited Germany.

By the end of November, the Bundeswehr was in serious trouble. Soviet Frontal Aviation had left their most modern aircraft in the west; these were qualitatively a match for the Luftwaffe and quantitatively more than a match. As the Bundeswehr lines began to crumble, high ranking officers of the East German Army made their move. In a bloodless coup, the civilian leaders of the country were deposed and replaced with a military junta. Two days later the new government ordered the army into the field against the Pact forces in the country and formally requested intervention on their behalf by NATO.

After the bloodless coup Marshall der DDR <name> officially replaced Hans Modrow as the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, who remained as an unofficial advisor for the new provisional government. During the conflict the E. German NVA mobilized all of their reserves, and enacted a nationwide draft to allow the DDR to liberate their nation from foreign occupation.

On 9 December <name>, the representative of the DDR to the United Nations, had announced the German Democratic Republic’s desire to remain an independent state that that would remain neutral in world affairs, and formally requested any assistance and support from the other members of the United Nations. Despite the assurances that the DDR wished to remain an independent state, many other nations did not believe these statements to be true. Despite the initial desire to remain as a separate independent nation, the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany would later reunify as the German Federal Republic after years of negotiation that would see the new government taking the best aspects of both governments, while purging the worst.

<Danilov’s attempt to negotiate an end to the fighting in Europe, and is purged…>


While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debated the prudence of intervention, the U.S. Army crossed the frontier. Within a week, France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece first demanded that U.S. troops withdraw to their start line and then withdrew from NATO in protest. British and Canadian forces crossed the border, however, while Danish and Dutch troops remained in place, still partners in NATO but not party to war.

In the far north, Soviet troops made a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. Most of the best Arctic-equipped divisions had already been sent east, however, and the third-line troops available were unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandoes and U.S. Marines joined the battle, the front line moved east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and the elite Soviet paratroopers and marines were isolated and destroyed.

At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sortie and attempted to break through the Greenland-lceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammered each other, but the western fleet came out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. 80% of the Soviet northern fleet tonnage rested on the bottom of the Norwegian and North Seas. Scattered commerce raiders did break out, however, and by year's end were wreaking havoc on the NATO convoys bringing ammunition and equipment across the Atlantic.

Having repeatedly given excuses when asked to provide troops for the war effort, Romania was finally presented with an ultimatum on December 5th: either support the war effort fully or suffer the consequences. The time limit expired without a formal reply from the Romanian government, but throughout Romania troops hurried to their emergency mobilization posts.

The Warsaw Pact apparently had expected Romanian compliance with the ultimatum, for it was not until December 20th that sufficient troops were assembled to begin an invasion. As
Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Soviet troops cross the border, Romania formally withdrew from the Warsaw Pact, declared war on the three invading nations, and applied to NATO for assistance.

The first nation to rally to Romania's aid was her neighbor, Yugoslavia. Within 24 hours, three divisions and five brigades crossed into Romania and two days later were at the front under Romanian command. NATO responded shortly thereafter with the offer of full membership in the security organization to both nations, which they accepted. More concrete assistance took the form of the Turkish 1 st Army, which launched its offensive against a thin Bulgarian covering force in Thrace on Christmas Eve.


2002

On the first day of the new year, the NATO heads of state declared their support for a Polish government in exile, headed by a committee of Polish émigrés. While the news was greeted with scattered worker uprisings in Poland, the majority of the Polish Army remained loyal to the central government, and open resistance was soon crushed. An underground movement began forming, however, and by spring small guerrilla bands, leavened by Polish Army deserters, began to harass Warsaw Pact supply convoys and installations.

During January, continuing Turkish successes in Bulgaria sparked a wave of patriotism in the Turks, particularly since Greece had remained neutral in the fight against the communists. On Cyprus, unoccupied and supposedly re-united for three years, the Turkish Cypriots demonstrated in favor of Turkey. The demonstrations turned into anti-Greek riots, and the Cypriot Army moved to restore order. In response, the Turkish Army invaded Cyprus and quickly occupied most of the island. Greece first sent military units to Cyprus to resist the Turks and then declared war on Turkey and attacked the Turkish forces in Thrace.

In late February, the socialist governments of Italy and Greece concluded a mutual defense pact. While Italy was not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, the Italian government declared the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging elsewhere, promising to intervene on Greece's side if NATO tried to tip the balance in Turkey's favor. Within a week Greece declared a naval blockade against Turkey and warned the world's shipping that the Aegean was now considered a war zone.

In an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Soviet and Czech troops went over to the offensive in southern Germany but did not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring the NATO offensive gained momentum and in April the first German troops crossed the frontier into Poland. By June 17th, Warsaw was surrounded, and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepared for a siege.

By late spring, NATO's Atlantic fleet had hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders, and the surviving attack carriers and missile cruisers moved to northern waters. The NATO drive in the north had bogged down on the banks of the Litsa River, but the Northern Front commander now contemplated a bold move to destroy the remnants of Soviet naval power there. While U.S. and British units attempted a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland, the NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to a massive bombardment. On June 7th the ground offensive was launched and the fleet closed in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter.

Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fought tenaciously, seriously delaying the flanking move. At sea the plan fared even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of Northern Fleet's shore-based naval aviation inflicted crippling losses on the NATO fleet. By mid-June the last major naval fleet in-being in the world had been shattered.

In the south, the front in Romania stabilized and entered a period of attritional warfare. Soviet mobilization-only divisions, largely leg-mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, entered the lines. Although the Romanians proved better soldiers than the over-aged and ill-trained Soviet recruits, the manpower difference began to be felt. The best Soviet troops were shipped further south to Bulgaria, and by May had managed to halt the Turkish drive. As Greek pressure on the Turkish left flank in Thrace built, unit after Turkish unit was shifted to face the Greeks. It became clear that, without aid, the Turkish Army would have to fall back or be defeated.

On June 27th, a NATO convoy of fast transports and cargo ships, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempted the run to the Turkish port of Izmir with badly-needed ammunition and equipment. Light fleet elements of the Greek navy intercepted the convoy and, in a confused night action off Izmir, inflicted substantial losses and escaped virtually unharmed. Two days later NATO retaliated with air strikes against Greek naval bases. On July 1st, Greece declared war against the NATO nations, and Italy, in compliance with her treaty obligations, followed suit on the 2nd.

In early July, Italian airmobile and alpine units crossed the passes into Tyrolia. Scattered elements of the Austrian army resisted briefly but were overwhelmed. By mid-month, Italian mechanized forces were debouching from the Alpine passes into southern Germany, and their advanced elements were in combat against German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich. The Yugoslavian Army launched a gallant but costly offensive against northeastern Italy, but soon was stalled. Italy responded with a major counteroffensive which, while draining troops from the German front, quickly shattered the thinly-spread Yugoslavian northern grouping.

The Italian Army enjoyed tremendous success in the first month of its involvement in the war, primarily for logistical reasons. Most of its opponents had already been at war for six months or more. Their peacetime stocks of munitions and replacement vehicles had been depleted, and their industries had not yet geared up to wartime production. The Italians had intact peacetime stockpiles to draw on. As summer turned to fall, however, the Italians too began feeling the logistical pinch, aggravated by the increasing flow of munitions and equipment from the factories of their opponents.

In Asia, pro-Soviet India and anti-Soviet Pakistan drifted into war through an escalating spiral of border incidents, mobilization, and major armed clashes. Outright war began in the spring, and by mid-year the Indian Army was slowly advancing across the length of the front, despite fierce resistance.

By early July, NATO advanced elements were closing up on the Polish-Soviet frontier in the central region, while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw. The Polish government in exile established its temporary capital in the city of Poznan, and asserted its claim to the pre-1939 Polish borders in the east. In the Far East, Pact forces began major withdrawals all along the front, and the mobile elements of the Chinese Army began a victorious pursuit.

On July 9th, with advanced elements of the 1st German Army on Soviet soil, the Red Army began using tactical nuclear weapons. In the West, they were used sparingly at first, and for the first week were used only against troop concentrations no further than 50 kilometers from the Soviet border. In the Far East, however, they were used on a massive scale. Chinese mechanized columns were vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit. Strike aircraft delivered warheads on the northern Chinese population and industrial centers still in Chinese hands. The Chinese response was immediate, but Soviet forward troop units were dispersed and well-prepared. Ballistic missile attacks on Soviet population centers were frustrated by an active and efficient ABM system, and the Soviet Air Defense Command massacred the handful of Chinese bombers that attempted low-level penetration raids. Within a week, the Chinese riposte was spent, but Soviet attacks continued. The Chinese communication and transportation system, already stretched to the breaking point, disintegrated. The roads were choked with refugees fleeing from the remaining cities, all of them potential targets. China began the rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder.

On the western front, the forward elements of both armies on the Soviet-Polish frontier were hit hard by tactical nuclear strikes, as NATO matched the Warsaw Pact warhead-for-warhead. By late August, the first of the Soviet divisions released from the Far East were entering the lines. Although the front lines were fluid everywhere, they began moving gradually west. On September 15th, the siege of Warsaw was lifted, and a week later Czech and Italian troops began a renewed offensive in southern Germany. The southern offensive gained momentum, and NATO forces in Poland increased the rate of their withdrawal, practicing a scorched earth policy as they fell back.

The Soviet and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also began a major offensive against the Turks in September. The one-sided use of tactical nuclear weapons broke the stalemate, and by month's end Bulgarian tank brigades were racing toward Istanbul. Simultaneously, Greek and Albanian troops launched a drive against southern Yugoslavia, and the Yugoslavian Army began to break up. The Yugoslavian expeditionary force in Romania was recalled for home defense, but before it could return, Beograd had fallen to Italian mechanized columns. At the same time, the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons, the increasing numbers of Soviet reserves, and the withdrawal of the Yugoslavians caused the Romanian front to collapse. As War saw Pact columns swept through both countries, isolated military units withdrew into the mountains and began to wage a guerrilla war.

In the west, NATO air units began making deep nuclear strikes against communication hubs in Czechoslovakia and Byelorussia in an attempt to slow the Warsaw Pact advance. The Pact responded with similar strikes against German industrial targets and major port cities. NATO's theater nuclear missiles were launched against an array of industrial targets and port cities in the western Soviet Union. Throughout October the exchanges continued, escalating gradually. Fearful of a general strategic exchange, neither side targeted on the land-based ICBM's of the other, or launched so many warheads at once as to risk convincing the other side that an all-out attack was in progress. Neither side wished to cross the threshold to nuclear oblivion in one bold step, and so they inched across it, never quite knowing they had done it until after the fact.

First, military targets were hit. Then industrial targets clearly vital to the war effort. Then economic targets of military importance. Then transportation and communication, oil fields and refineries. Then major industrial and oil centers in neutral nations, to prevent their possible use by the other side. Numerous warheads were aimed at logistical stockpiles and command control centers of the armies in the field. Almost accidentally, the civilian political command structure was first decimated, then eliminated. The exchange continued, fitfully and irregularly, through November and early December, and then gradually petered out.

Pakistan and India waged their own nuclear war. Facing defeat, Pakistan launched a pre-emptive strike on India's economy and nuclear strike force. Although industrial centers were hit hard, enough of India's nuclear arsenal survived to launch a devastating retaliatory strike. The Indian-Pakistani war soon wound down, as each country's economy no longer could feed its civilians, let alone supply military units.


2003

The winter of 2002-03 was particularly cold. Civilian war casualties in the industrialized nations had reached almost 15% by the turn of the year, but the worst was yet to come. Communication and transportation systems were non-existent, and food distribution was impossible. In the wake of nuclear war came famine on a scale previously undreamed of. Only the exceptionally cold winter delayed simultaneous epidemics. In the nations of the Third World, destruction of their major industries together with cessation of western food aid caused severe dislocations, with famine and starvation in many areas. With the spring thaw, the unburied dead finally brought on the epidemics the few remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases swept the world's population. By the time they had run their courses, the global casualty rate would be 50%.

In Europe, France and Belgium had been hit the lightest and stood virtually alone in maintaining a semblance of internal order throughout the cataclysm. As refugees began flooding across their borders, the French and Belgian governments closed their frontiers, and military units began turning back refugees with gunfire. The French government authorized the army to move west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier. As the refugees piled up on the French and Belgian frontiers, a large lawless zone sprang into existence. Open fighting for food was followed by mass starvation and disease, until the lawless zone had become barren and empty.

The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front had fallen to about 8,000, with U.S. divisions running at about half of that. Warsaw Pact divisions now varied widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2-4,000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition temporarily paralyzed the armies. Peace might have come, but there were no surviving governments to negotiate it. Only the military command structures remained intact, and they remained faithful to the final orders of their governments. In a time of almost universal famine, only the military had the means of securing and distributing rations. Military casualties had been much lower than casualties among civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan bands in the mountains of Romania and Yugoslavia had escaped almost untouched, while many Pact regular units had been destroyed in the exchange or had just melted away after it. The Romanians and Yugoslavians began forming regular combat units again, although still structured to live off the land and subsist from captured enemy equipment. At first, there was a great deal of enemy equipment just lying around waiting to be picked up.

There were border changes as well. The Italian Army formed the satellite states of Croatia, Serbia, and Slovenia while the Greek Army directly annexed Macedonia. The Albanian Army, always a reluctant ally, first protested, then withdrew from the temporary alliance, and finally began sporadic attacks on Greek military units. At the same time, many Italian and Hungarian units were withdrawn from the Balkans and shifted to Czechoslovakia and southern Germany.

In North America, a flood of hungry refugees began crossing the Rio Grande, and most of the remaining military forces of the United States were deployed into the southwest to deal with the mounting crisis. They moved at the orders of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, now the de facto government of the United States. Widespread food riots and violence in refugee areas were met with military force. The Mexican government protested, and within months Mexican Army units crossed the Rio Grande to protect Mexican lives. More U.S. units were shifted south. Scattered fighting grew into open warfare, and Mexican armored columns were soon driving northeast toward Arkansas and northwest into southern California. The front quickly stabilized in northeast Texas and central California. Elsewhere in the U.S. civil disorder and anarchy increased with the withdrawal of Army units.

In late June, the Pact forces in southern Germany renewed their offensive in an attempt to seize the scattered surviving industrial sites in central Germany. Actually, the most intact parts of Germany were those areas in the south which had been under Warsaw Pact occupation, as neither side was willing to strike the area heavily. Galvanized into renewed action, NATO forces made a maximum effort to reform a coherent front, and the Pact offensive finally stalled along a line from Frankfurt to Fulda. In late August, NATO launched its own offensive from the area of Karl Marx Stadt, driving south to penetrate the Pact rear areas in Czechoslovakia. The thinly-spread Czech border guard units were quickly overwhelmed and Pact forces in central Germany began a precipitous withdrawal to Czechoslovakia, laying waste to southern Germany as they retreated.

A simultaneous offensive by the Yugoslavian Army drove north in an attempt to link up with NATO. The Yugoslavians were halted near Lake Balaton, however, and then thrown back. As more Pact units arrived in Czechoslovakia, the NATO drive ran out of steam and lost its sense of direction. Troops were shifted west to garrison the recaptured but devastated south of Germany, and many lives were wasted in a futile attempt to force the Alpine passes into Italy. As the autumnal rains began, NATO and the Pact initiated a short and weak second nuclear exchange, directed primarily at surviving industrial centers in the United Kingdom and Italy.

Fighting gradually ran down to the level of local skirmishing as both sides prepared for another winter.


2004

Once spring planting was finished, the United States Congress reconvened for the first time since the first exchange of missiles. Senator John Broward (D, Ark), the former governor of Arkansas who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats, was elected President by the House of Representatives. General Jonathan Cummings, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refused to recognize the constitutional validity of the election, citing the lack of a proper quorum and numerous irregularities in the credentials of the attending congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision would later be widely criticized, there was much validity to his position. Many congressional seats were disputed; several of the congressmen in attendance were merely self-appointed local strongmen who had gained control of large parts of the old congressional districts, and some had never seen the districts they purported to represent. There was at least one confirmed shooting between rival claimants to a seat while Congress was in session.)

General Cummings declared a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census was practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and presidential electoral votes. President Broward responded with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declined to submit. While some military units sided with the new civilian government, the majority continued to take orders from the Joint Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for two simple reasons. First, the habit of obedience was deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, was all that had allowed units to survive thus far. Second, the Joint Chiefs controlled virtually all surviving telecommunications networks.

In North America, the main effect was a further erosion of central authority. Forced to choose between two rival governments, both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many localities simply chose to ignore both.

The surviving foreign and national organizations dealing or concerned with the United States, choose between the rival governments. The German military government and Polish government in exile continued relations with the Joint Chiefs, while the partisan commands of Yugoslavia and Romania recognized the civilian government. The remnants of the Central Intelligence Agency obeyed the orders of the civilian government, while the Defense Intelligence Agency, loyal to the Joint Chiefs, organized a field operations branch to replace the CIA "defectors." Officially, forces of the two governments refrained from violent confrontation, but there were sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.

In the autumn, the dispatch of troops to Europe resumed, although only as a trickle. A few warships were available as escorts, and various old merchant vessels were pressed into service as transports. Initiated by the civilian government, both governments briefly competed in a struggle to outdo the other, viewing success as a litmus test of their ability to mobilize the nation. In fact, the call-ups affected only the Atlantic coast and led to widespread resistance. The dispatch of troops, supplies, and equipment to Europe made little sense to most, considering the appalling state of affairs in the United States.

The actual reinforcements sent included a small number of light vehicles and ammunition but consisted mostly of light infantry. Mortars were becoming the most popular support weapon for troops, as they could be turned out in quantity from small machine shops and garages.

In Europe, the fronts were static for most of the year. Low troop densities meant that infiltration raids became the most common form of warfare. The "front" ceased to be a line and became a deep occupied zone, as troops settled into areas and began farming and small-scale manufacturing to meet their supply requirements. Local civilians were hired to farm and carry out many administrative functions in return for security from the increasing numbers of marauders roaming the countryside. In other areas, the security the military unit provided to its civilians was from the unit itself. Many units stationed in barren areas drifted apart or turned to marauding when supplies did not arrive. Although most attacks by large bodies of marauders were directed at areas held by "the enemy", they begin to be directed at "allied" units as well, although at first not against units of the same nationality.


2005

By the spring of the year 2005, the armies of Europe had settled into their new "cantonment" system. Civil authority had virtually ceased to exist. Most military units were practicing extensive local recruiting in an attempt to keep up to strength, and stragglers were often incorporated into units regardless of nationality. Thus, U.S. units contain Germans, Poles, Danes, and former soldiers of Warsaw Pact armies in addition to Americans. Nominal titles of units (brigades, divisions, etc.) have little bearing on the actual size of the unit.

In early summer, the German Third Army, spearheaded by the U.S. Eleventh Corps, moved out of its cantonments on what was to become one of the last strategic offensives of the war.