The ANZACs in T2k

[Olefin]

"But back to the the whole argument of, "only a relatively small number of people have died from this disease so let's ease off social distancing". It stems from a logical fallacy- it's a reverse Post hoc ergo propter hoc. In other words, the reason we've had a lower death rate than worst case scenarios suggested we would is because of social distancing protocols."

FYI the studies out of Israel show the same pattern of infection and deaths with and without social distancing - i.e. basically both have equivalent patterns no matter what you do - but one crashes the economy and one doesnt

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Olefin

FYI the studies out of Israel show the same pattern of infection and deaths with and without social distancing - i.e. basically both have equivalent patterns no matter what you do - but one crashes the economy and one doesnt

Citations, please.

Also, look at the death rate in countries that were early implementers of similar protocols (like South Korea) v. those who dragged their feet (like Iran and Italy). It's not even close.

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Citations, please.

Also, look at the death rate in countries that were early implementers of similar protocols (like South Korea) v. those who dragged their feet (like Iran and Italy). It's not even close.

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

Ok Raellus here you go - also have a link to his paper which is in Hebrew and two articles that go into depth on his findings -

https://www.dailywire.com/news/israe...e-agency-chair

https://townhall.com/columnists/mari...ttern-n2566915

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-is...after-70-days/

[Raellus]

Not that it will change anybody's minds, but for you non-Americans out there, Daily Wire is an "opinion journalism" site and Ben Shapiro, an "opinion journalist".

Here's the tag line from their Google search entry:

"Led by the incomparable Ben Shapiro, The Daily Wire is a hard-hitting, irreverent news and commentary site for a new generation of conservatives."

Sounds super credible when it comes to science news.

-

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Israel doesn't seem to be a good choice to test whether social distancing is or is not having an impact on infection rates simply because the country is small in landmass and large in population.
Even ignoring such things as traditional large families among certain groups being a potential cause of infection spread, the population density is 401 people per square kilometre and it's a country that heavily relies on imports for many resources.
In that situation, I can easily believe that social distancing may not be carried out as effectively as it should. Ideally, Israel should be a good choice to test the theory but in practice, I wonder how stringently they are applying social distancing rules?

And also Leg, my apologies as well for wandering off the thread topic

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Not that it will change anybody's minds, but for you non-Americans out there, Daily Wire is an "opinion journalism" site and Ben Shapiro, an "opinion journalist".

Here's the tag line from their Google search entry:

"Led by the incomparable Ben Shapiro, The Daily Wire is a hard-hitting, irreverent news and commentary site for a new generation of conservatives."

Sounds super credible when it comes to science news.

-

Raellus since when is the Times of Israel a right wing news site which I also linked to? And I can post the English translation of his paper if you wish. Please don’t let partisanship cloud discussion of scientific papers here or elsewhere. And the professor in question is hardly a partisan figure who pushes junk science.

Leg I will post the English translation on the quarantine thread.

[Raellus]

I'd like to publicly apologize to Olefin for the sarcastic tone of post #272, and to Legbreaker for continuing to hijack his thread after I said that I would stop.

Gentlemen, I am sorry.

-

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Gentlemen, I am sorry.

Meh, we all do stupid things sometimes and text only communication is very limiting when it comes to subtleties and tone - very easy to misunderstand the true intention of the writer. Forget about it.

Got my grubby hands on a bunch of government and defence reports from the late 90's and very early 2000's yesterday. Only had time to skim through them so far, but it looks like my writing and conclusions are VERY close to what the experts 20+ years ago were saying would happen if there was a conflict between Australia and certain neighbours. They've danced around specifically naming any particular country, but given the geographics and military capabilities involved, it's obvious who exactly they were talking about.
They've also mentioned a few locations of interest I'd totally forgotten about as being strategically important - will have to include them in the book!

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

Yes, it would be nice, and interesting as this conversation is, for the discussion to continue here https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=6055