OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[swaghauler]

Here's another presentation from PERUN on the effect of Ukraine on the Russian defense industry...

https://youtu.be/73hBbONvCN0

Swag

[swaghauler]

Here's an easy-to-digest update on the war from June till now.

https://youtu.be/WS0D0X8V6rg

Swag

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

My one issue with any AA is the fact that TWILIGHT2000 really didn't address the radars that many AA Gun Systems & Missile Launchers have installed in them. Without those rules, the GM is left to fumble about trying to figure out what each radar can actually detect.

Back in the 80s that was information impossible to come by. And even today with the Gepard SPAAG out of service in the Bundeswehr for 12 years, this is still obscure data and securely guarded data. From what I hear, the source is a former Gepard commander and officer, the latest Gepard could easily detect small drones ot to a couple of kilometers and successfully engage them.

[Ursus Maior]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Finally!

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...w-in-the-fight

It's just incredibly sad our conservatives dumped the Gepards, under the screams of the AA community, and sold them off across the world. This is one hell of a big cat.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

My one issue with any AA is the fact that TWILIGHT2000 really didn't address the radars that many AA Gun Systems & Missile Launchers have installed in them. Without those rules, the GM is left to fumble about trying to figure out what each radar can actually detect.

That is a problem, but the solution (other than an RF bonus) would range from cumbersome to nightmarish -- radar detection and ranging is incredibly complicated, which is why the first production stealth designs didn't appear until the late 1970s. I've been trying to come up with something coherent for decades.

[The Zappster]

Has any checked if the traveller house rules has anything that can help ?

[Homer]

Everything over and above a simple search radar or ranging radar gets complex quickly. I think GDW took three approaches to simplify things: first, radar/lrf/ballistic computer, etc are rolled into a single modifier; second, remove most air assets from the game due to cannon circumstances; finally, limit availability of complex systems using availability and judgement.

That said, much of AD in the 90s was moving towards networked systems. This included linking forward search and cueing systems into non radar equipped fire units, using bridging data structure to merge the air and AD pictures, and expanding engagement envelopes to include non-air breather threats. Most of this structure is probably destroyed or needing repair by 2000, but allowing certain items to remain could help replicate the search and cue capabilities.

[Raellus]

The convenient thing about SPAAGs in the T2k-verse is that players/Ref's probably won't ever have to figure out/use radar rules, as aerial targets are few and far between by the late stages of the war. However, those auto-cannons are still useful against ground targets. A SPAAG has a good chance of knocking out anything short of a modern MBT.

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[Homer]

Against an MBT their volume of fire would probably have a pretty good chance of getting a suppression or a mission kill by crazing vision blocks, hitting primary sights, destroying exposed portions of FCS (wind sensors, rangefinders), and knocking off antennas and exposed machine guns. The tank and crew will survive, but they may need to fight degraded or pull off for repair. Against anything less they’d be absolutely deadly.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Homer

Against an MBT their volume of fire would probably have a pretty good chance of getting a suppression or a mission kill by crazing vision blocks, hitting primary sights, destroying exposed portions of FCS (wind sensors, rangefinders), and knocking off antennas and exposed machine guns. The tank and crew will survive, but they may need to fight degraded or pull off for repair. Against anything less they’d be absolutely deadly.

That might again take new rules!

This reminds me the story out of Vietnam about a Cobra crew who needed to stop a PT-76. Unfortunately, they only had HE rockets, which did not penetrate the PT-76. But they kept firing, and the tank was stopped -- not by destruction or a mobility kill, but by the concussion from the HE explosions on the PT-76 killing the crew.

New rule?

[Homer]

I don’t have my rules handy, so I’m winging it. That might be able to be replicated by rolling for hit and location then allowing for judgement on a non-penetrating hit. The 1st Edition rules with their more detailed vehicle damage would probably be easier to work with. Otherwise you’d need to have a copy of janes handy!

Artillery, especially HE/VT, is the same way. Even 60mm mortar fragments can effect an armored vehicle by chopping off antennas, damaging external weapons or sights, shredding external stowage (esp crew gear), etc.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

That might again take new rules!

This reminds me the story out of Vietnam about a Cobra crew who needed to stop a PT-76. Unfortunately, they only had HE rockets, which did not penetrate the PT-76. But they kept firing, and the tank was stopped -- not by destruction or a mobility kill, but by the concussion from the HE explosions on the PT-76 killing the crew.

New rule?

For overpressure damage in V2.2, I take the Concussion Damage dice and subtract the vehicle's armor protection from that number. If the number is positive, that is the number of D10s you roll for occupant damage. This "blast damage" (like my actual concussion damage) is divided up and applied to ALL the locations with extra damage being applied to specific locations as follows...

Head first
Chest second
Abdomen third
Limbs (start with the arms) last

Personal body armor (other than a bomb suit) DOES NOT work for Concussion Damage.

Vehicle Damage:

I put electronics on the outside lines of my vehicle charts. So you can hit radio antennas, electronics, and optics by rolling that line on my location charts (these resemble the charts used by BATTLETECH the mech game).

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

That is a problem, but the solution (other than an RF bonus) would range from cumbersome to nightmarish -- radar detection and ranging is incredibly complicated, which is why the first production stealth designs didn't appear until the late 1970s. I've been trying to come up with something coherent for decades.

I have been kicking around a chart like my Observation and Spotting Chart (yes I have posted that chart in this forum) where a DETECTION radar would have a Skill Difficulty column for...

Large Aircraft above NOA (Nap of Earth)
Large Aircraft at NOA or small aircraft (drones)
Large Ground Targets
Small Ground Targets

Non-Doppler Radars would give range and bearing (with two units needed for altitude triangulation).

Doppler Radars would give a range, bearing, and altitude. It's hard to believe, but before Doppler Radar (and now ESA) everyone needed two radars scanning to pinpoint exact range and altitude.

In addition to DETECTION RADARS, you'd also have a TARGETING Radar that could direct weapons fire. By the '70s, you could combine BOTH Radar types into one unified system.

[Raellus]

Kind of silly, kind of clever: In this parody mashup, HIMARS, representing Ukraine, makes an appearance on America's Got Talent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKJw1K3PA8Y

I read that the HIMARS video was created by the same folks that did the Sir David Attenborough BBC Planet Earth parody about the Javelin Missile.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_INS-96zgNE

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[bash]

I found this video today, it's an American foreign fighter in Ukraine recording his first mission on a helmet mounted GoPro. I found it pretty interesting. Also game-wise I see this as basically the day to day life of T2K characters.

https://youtu.be/5_HupFPE3io

Normal combat footage warnings apply, NSFW etc.

[pmulcahy11b]

The Ukrainians have integrated HARMs onto their MiGs, with mixed success:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqY9CDsOpvk

[bash]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

The Ukrainians have integrated HARMs onto their MiGs, with mixed success:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqY9CDsOpvk

I have been really amused by coverage about adapting US/NATO systems to Ukraine's equipment. Commentators act as if adapting NATO weapons to WP equipment is some brand new concept no one has ever tried before. Former Soviet satellites have been working to integrate old WP tech and NATO tech for thirty years.

I don't say that to disparage the Ukrainians at all, they obviously have the tech talent to do the work. I'm 100% sure they've gotten a lot of advice from all their Eastern European NATO neighbors about sticking NATO systems on their WP equipment. Between such advice and their own ingenuity they've pulled some impressive feats. I'm just amused at the breathless commentary from YouTubers.

[pmulcahy11b]

One of the interesting items I noticed from the cockpit shots was the use of a Garmin commercial GPS receiver in a jury-rigged mount.

As far as mixing the use of Russian and Western equipment, look to the Indians, who do that on a regular basis. They buy systems from everyone, and mix and match as they see fit.

[swaghauler]

Here's Perun's weekly PowerPoint on the Ukraine War discussing logistics and other issues.

https://youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

Swag

[swaghauler]

Here is Peter Zeihan's take on the strategic goals of the counter-offensive. While I don't always agree with Mr. Zeihan, he does make a lot of valid points and his economic expertise is far beyond my own.

https://youtu.be/Tb3U9Ydiw64

Swag

[kcdusk]

The body go pro footage was a good watch. Even without direct enemy contact, every minute was on edge.

Also, theres been a bit of talk about how far away you can see the enemy (contact ranges) on the FL site. And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it? Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it? Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

Especially when both sides are using the same gear.

Reports out of Ukraine claim that Ukrainian military personnel are claiming to be hot young women on Russian social media platforms. When Russian military personnel in Ukraine respond to said catfishing posts, Ukrainian cyber-war personnel use the geo-location data in the Russian responses to target those troops with artillery and drone strikes.

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[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by kcdusk

The body go pro footage was a good watch. Even without direct enemy contact, every minute was on edge.

Also, theres been a bit of talk about how far away you can see the enemy (contact ranges) on the FL site. And this video showed me, that even if you can see a T-62 tank at range 500m. Whose is it? Ours (Ukraine) or theirs (Russian). My main point being sometimes range is short, and even then identifying friend or foe can be hard.

This is exactly why I broke my Observation & Spotting Chart (before someone DMs me and asks, YES it is posted on this website) in a chance to spot people and a chance to spot vehicles by "range bands" [for the spotting chance]. Keep in mind that SPOTTING and IDENTIFYING are two separate tasks.

[Raellus]

So Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be going quite well, especially in the northeast. Russia's suffered another major defeat. I'm not ready to count Russia out yet, but Ukraine's recent successes are worth celebrating.

What's next? I saw one breathless headline today suggesting that Putin's days in power are numbered. That's rather sanguine, and probably naively hopeful.

I'm quite surprised that I haven't seen any dire predictions of what an increasingly humiliated and desperate Putin might do in the coming days and weeks. In the first few weeks of the war, as the Russian drive on Kiev sputtered to a halt, a lot of news outlets presented the possibility that Putin might resort to tactical nukes to regain momentum and achieve his strategic goals. As more Western aid appeared in Ukraine, Putin rattled his nuclear sabre.

At present, it seems like no one's particularly worried about potential use of nuclear weapons anymore. It seems to me that if Putin were ever to authorize/order tactical nuclear strikes, it would be now, with Ukrainian forces at the border in the northeast. Is Putin going to gracefully accept defeat? He missed his opportunity to declare victory a couple of months ago. Any such declaration now would ring hollow, and a strategic withdrawal or peace overture would appear to signal defeat. That doesn't strike me as Putin's style at all.

What do you think the coming weeks will bring?

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[Tegyrius]

Has Putin made many public appearances lately? The past months have seen repeated speculation that he's in poor health, with photos over the summer seeming to bear that out. His reported COVID-19 paranoia also has kept his face-to-face contact with advisors and staff rather circumscribed.

- C.

[Heffe]

I think any predictions being made right now in this regard would be little more than guesswork, all being predicated on the idea of whether or not Putin is behaving as a rational actor any longer.

In my opinion, it's only a matter of time until Kherson falls back into Ukrainian hands - the Russians there are surely running short on fuel and ammunition, with no way to resupply other than by hand across the Antonivka bridge. When they're dry on ammo, I don't see them as having much other choice than to retreat across the bridge or surrender, leaving their heavy equipment behind.

As for Putin, how will he take the situation in the northeast and in Kherson when the above scenario comes to pass? If he's behaving as a rational actor, he'll sue for peace. He'll recognize that the war has failed, his military will take a generation to rebuild, and that the entire endeavor was a waste of time and resources. He'll try to keep the Donbas region through negotiations, though I think that by now he's lost the chance to hold onto the Crimean Peninsula.

If Putin isn't a rational actor (anymore) or is getting super desperate because his own life is on the line? I think there's a lot of things he might try, including but not limited to targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (power plants, water processing facilities, etc), calling up the Russian reserves, instituting a draft, etc. I don't think he'd actually resort to using nukes, but so much depends on how far gone he is.

As for him potentially targeting civilian infrastructure, Russia wants people to support Russia. If he starts going after power plants just as winter is starting, he'll lose the possibility of holding Donbas as the people there will see him for the monster he is. As for the draft or calling up reserves, it's clear that his equipment stocks are on the path to depletion, which means any reserves would likely just be light infantry. Does he risk sacrificing a ton of Russians into a meat grinder and risk losing what popular support he has in Russia? I don't think he'd want to go that route either, but again, who knows?

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Heffe

As for the draft or calling up reserves, it's clear that his equipment stocks are on the path to depletion, which means any reserves would likely just be light infantry. Does he risk sacrificing a ton of Russians into a meat grinder and risk losing what popular support he has in Russia? I don't think he'd want to go that route either, but again, who knows?

Russian leaders sending vast waves of young Russian soldiers to their doom is standard operating procedure though, isn't it? At least for the last couple of centuries.

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Targan

Russian leaders sending vast waves of young Russian soldiers to their doom is standard operating procedure though, isn't it? At least for the last couple of centuries.

It certainly is, and maybe we’ll see it again? I genuinely don’t know the internal situation in Russia right now. I know a large portion of the population aren’t fans of Putin, and surely a lot of them are willing to protest. The old timers and more conservative elements of the population though? I don’t know if they’d support a draft or not. And how heavy a hand would Putin take with his own people if the protesting gets bad? Just a lot of unknowns there.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I'm quite surprised that I haven't seen any dire predictions of what an increasingly humiliated and desperate Putin might do in the coming days and weeks. In the first few weeks of the war, as the Russian drive on Kiev sputtered to a halt, a lot of news outlets presented the possibility that Putin might resort to tactical nukes to regain momentum and achieve his strategic goals. As more Western aid appeared in Ukraine, Putin rattled his nuclear sabre.

At present, it seems like no one's particularly worried about potential use of nuclear weapons anymore.
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The Times carried an article on the above subjects on Friday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...ions-t7k2vsgc5

I'm not sure if you'll be able to view it as I think it's behind a paywall (I have a subscription and checking without logging in would suggest you can't but it may be different outside the UK). Options mentioned in the article were

1. Detonate a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea as a demonstration of intent and see what happens

2. Intensified conventional attacks on major population centres, e.g. Kyiv

3. Blow up the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

4. Tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian armed forces

[bash]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

The Times carried an article on the above subjects on Friday

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...ions-t7k2vsgc5

I'm not sure if you'll be able to view it as I think it's behind a paywall (I have a subscription and checking without logging in would suggest you can't but it may be different outside the UK). Options mentioned in the article were

1. Detonate a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea as a demonstration of intent and see what happens

2. Intensified conventional attacks on major population centres, e.g. Kyiv

3. Blow up the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

4. Tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian armed forces

The problem with rattling a nuclear saber is it's only scary once unless you actually use a nuke. After nothing happened after Putin's nuclear talk back in February I think it's apparent he has no intention of ever using nukes.

1. Putin has a decent enough lock on power within Russia. Even if Russia pulled out of Ukraine tomorrow the internal spin would just say "Mission Accomplishski" and the majority inside Russia would cheer.
2. People outside of Russia don't care about Russia. Russia only is concerning to some ex-Soviet satellites that are now backed up by NATO. Russia won't invade them. Russia is also ruined economically and militarily for decades now. Putin will be gone before they're able to threaten anyone again.
3. The US likely has a pretty good handle on Russia's nuclear arsenal and isn't worried about them using it. Like the rest of Russian equipment it's been rotting since the 90s. Hydrogen bombs need constant maintenance (tritium expires) lest they become just low yield fission bombs.
4. Putin nuking anyone runs a very real risk one of several nuclear armed powers says "screw it" and drops a ground burst on whatever dacha he spends the most time at. The rest of the world would probably give that country a mulligan and a sternly worded letter of thanks.