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#451
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Ironically, I really think the outcome of this conflict is going to be the emergence of Poland as the dominant military land power in Europe. Their buying spree is impressive, and they are going for pretty much top of the line gear. They'll have an armored force about 6-8x the size of Germany's. Last edited by castlebravo92; 01-13-2023 at 01:19 PM. |
#452
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Since we're all commanding from our armchairs, I'll go out on a limb here. The result of this war has already been decided, and Putin has lost. I just don't see a path forward for Russia where it becomes able to achieve it's operational/strategic goals, not with the losses they've already suffered. Russia's best bet is to effectively force Ukraine to concede the land already occupied, but short of a major catastrophe, I don't see Ukraine agreeing to concessions anytime soon. As far as cards to play, Russia could and will resort to additional mobilizations, but without the supporting training, equipment, and leadership, those men are just being fed into a meat grinder. All accounts of Bakhmut are showing Russians using human wave attacks. That isn't a recipe for gaining operational momentum. The west seems ready to keep supporting Ukraine with equipment for the long haul, and Russia's munitions are shrinking drastically. Reports are showing that they've already reached, and potentially surpassed, critical levels of long range missiles. Their armor forces seem to be gutted, with likely somewhere around 1800-2000 tank losses so far. Much the same with artillery systems. The aircraft situation seems nominally better, but Russia appears averse to flying sorties over Ukrainian airspace, probably doubly so now that Patriots are in theater. And Russia's ability to produce anything advanced has been cut off at the knees due to heavy sanctions and lack of microchips. Anything can happen of course, but short of walking away with some of the already occupied territory (of god forbid, using nukes), I just can't see Putin achieving any kind of real victory in Ukraine. |
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Broadly, I agree with your assessment, Heffe. I do, however, think it really depends on how long Putin is willing to fight this war. Russia has a significantly larger pool of fighting age men. Even if the Ukrainians produce 3 casualties for every 1 sustained, they'll run out of soldiers first. Can Russian gov't, econ., and society hold out long enough for that to happen? Probably not, but the possibility can't be discounted.
This piece does a pretty good job of analyzing demographic trends in relation to the war. https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-demog...aine-vs-russia -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#454
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I kind of suspect the reason why Leopards and Challies are currently on offer is because Ukraine knows that in order for their own forces to go on the offense, they need better armor support, and have communicated that to friendly western nations. If Russia sustains another major defeat or two, Putin risks losing the support of the mil-bloggers, and then that of the people. We'll have to see how that all plays out. |
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And Ukraine is running out of ammunition too, in particular for its artillery. Although local production has recently ramped up, it can't keep up with demand. Recent reports are that artillery fires have diminished from both sides. NATO is having a difficult time providing enough fresh shells and rockets to keep up with Ukrainian expenditures. They've been outsourcing resupply to "unaligned" countries (like Pakistan), but that supply is going to dry up soon as well. Quote:
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 01-13-2023 at 05:07 PM. |
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10...bombs-ukraine/ I remember ICM-DP rounds being worth their weight in gold in T2k, weird how it seems to be that way again. |
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#458
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Wagner had always been build as an elite PMC. Apparently, now they are employing large numbers of ex-Cons, many recently released specifically for the war. Quote:
![]() Early in the war, Luka went on record as saying that Belarus would not participate, despite allowing Russian land and air forces basing and transit rights. Then there was the infamous "map slip", so maybe there was a plan to do so at some point. In early summer, reports emerged indicating that Belarus was surreptitiously giving some of its T-72 tanks to Russia, to make up for heavy Russian losses. Since at least autumn, Russia has been shifting forces to Belarus, despite simultaneously losing ground in Ukraine. Russia claimed it was just to conduct joint maneuvers with the Belarussians. AFAIK, those RF forces are still there, and reports indicating they're continuing to be reinforced. Some analysts believe this is to pressure Ukraine to maintain significant forces in the Kiev area, to defend the capital from potential second lunge at Kiev. I'm not so sure. Do you think NATO will strike at Belarus if it joins the invasion of Ukraine? I don't. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#459
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#460
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RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RE TRACTED***
UK to send Apaches to Ukraine https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...e-war-28957065 RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RETRACTED***RE TRACTED*** EDIT *** https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/st...76434382528513 I have always thought NATO looked at the situation as the frog (Russia) in the stove pot (Ukraine), where they raised the temp slowly enough the frog never realized it was being boiled alive. Now they seem to be cranking the heat a bit (albeit with small numbers of tech). EDIT *** I thought this was a RADICAL increase in quality of equipment. So back to the slow raising of the temperature in the pot. This is going to be an incredible experiment in cross NATO platform C3I. Last edited by kato13; 01-15-2023 at 09:39 AM. |
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I just found an article in the german newspaper WELT (unfortunately behind a paywall) where Wolfgang Ischinger says that Ukraine fires aso much ammunition in one day as Germany produces in 6 months.
Ischinger served as chairman of the Munich Security Conference from 2008 to 2022. I think that following McKinsey (switching everything to just-in-time production), outsourcing nearly everything to the Far East and reducing stockpiles to nearly nothing was the wrong way to go. Every country should have the production capability to produce at least 50% of its military needs (vehicles, ammunition, etc) on its own. And the stockpiles must be big. I remember reading that in WWI the armies used up nearly all the ammo in a short time because nobody could imagine that artillery barrages would consume soo much ammo. |
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Years ago reading a book about WW1 logistics the British had to decide a year in advance what kind of war they were going for the following year (offensive or defensive) to get enough shells manufactured and stockpiled in time for the campaigns.
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The latest warzone articles discuss Ukraine being supplied with Stryker, Marder, Challenger and potentially Leopod tanks. And questions how the associated countries will be able to keep up this level of spending.
If Nato/USA is struggling to keep up supply and spending, how will Russia ever be able to? And, they are potentially loosing more equipment than Nato.
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"Beep me if the apocolypse comes" - Buffy Sommers |
#464
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NATO defense spending has gone up since the Russian invasion of Ukraine (it was already trending that way before said). Giving Ukraine mountains of military aid in the form of weapons systems and ammo gives NATO militaries a nice excuse to ask for bigger budgets and shiny new toys. Transactionally, I'm less concerned for NATO than I am for Ukraine. Maintaining such a motley assortment of older, but new-to-them, vehicles and weapons systems is going to be extremely challenging, especially under wartime conditions. And, despite major similarities between analogous systems (say, for example, a Chally and a Leo), each system requires an adequate training cycle in order to be employed effectively. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 01-15-2023 at 03:05 PM. |
#465
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This is going to be an interesting time for Poland, indeed. If they don't find the money, their reform and resizing implodes. If they find the money, a lot of other stuff won't get funded and even more deficit will be built up.
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#466
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#468
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This is what I'm worried about. Ukraine may be able to pace, or even pull ahead, of the Russians in operational AFV and artillery numbers, but the manpower disparity is beginning to tell. 100k military casualties on both sides favors the Russians. Yeah, the replacements they're mustering are very poorly trained and equipped but, as Stalin once said, "quantity has a quality all its own". If Belarus joins the fight...
![]() https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...op-u-s-general From the article, "The foreign intelligence service informed security politicians in the Bundestag in a secret meeting this week that the Ukrainian Army is currently losing a three-digit number of soldiers every day in battles with the Russian invaders" in Bakhmut, according to Der Spiegel." In all likelihood, the bulk of those casualties consist of Ukraine's more experienced troops. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 01-21-2023 at 09:19 PM. |
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Does anyone have any recent numbers for Ukraine's mobilization?
I've read reports that they've sent a fairly sizable number of troops to NATO countries for training on various platforms, and they are clearly operating on more of a total war / full mobilization footing than Russia is, which suggests they'll be able to absorb battle casualties better than Russia can without a similar mobilization on their part. There was a joke about this last round of conscripts and convicts Russia was sending to the front were getting more training this time around and were going to be much more formidable than the last wave - 2 days of training instead of 1! I'm guessing the weather is preventing Ukraine from launching counter attacks to relieve the pressure on Bakhmut. |
#470
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On the contrary, Ukraine has around or likely above 100,000 total casualities, including KIA, WIA, MIA and POWs with Western support in later stage medical treatments, logistical help in getting first aid material and first aid training to the front. Their ratio of KIA and WIA will be far superior to Russia's and their abilities to regenerate combat effectiveness from WIA will be far better. Also, Ukrainians are likely to reenlist and volunteer for service. Russians more or less have to force their citizens into service and have been scraping the barrel for months. Also, Belarus isn't going to join them. Despite the fact that Lukashenka has allowed Belarus to become essentially Russia's biggest training grounds.
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#471
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#472
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If Ukraine isn't pressing to relieve pressure on Bakhmut now, there must be other reasons besides the weather. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...asputitsa.html The almost clockwork arrival of the Rasputitsa in early spring makes Russia's decision to launch its invasion of Ukraine in February deliciously ironic. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#473
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The poster formerly known as The Dark The Vespers War - Ninety years before the Twilight War, there was the Vespers War. |
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With the newfound attacks in the Zaporizhzhia oblast and front, there might not be enough of an armored relief force available as of now, in order to counterattack north of Bakhmut against Russian forces at Soledar. I wouldn't be surprised, if Ukraine has to regroup to towns West of Bakhmut soon, maybe as far as Kostyantynivka. That's only 10 km to the Southwest and the city is pretty well fortified by now. But it'd still be a problem regarding the information warfare for some time.
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I'd like to see some POW figures from both sides. My impression is that more Russian troops have been captured, but what's the actual difference? Is it statistically significant? Again, Ukraine is at or near full mobilization. Russia, on the other hand is not. They still have untapped manpower reserves. Yes, qualitatively, Russia's replacement troops are inferior but, quantitatively, Russia still has a decided edge. Quote:
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 01-24-2023 at 06:14 PM. |
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I know the Russians have a history of coming back after unfathomable losses, but so many intangibles are working against them:
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#477
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The floodgates have opened, it seems. Not only is Germany authorizing the transfer of several nations' Leopard II tanks to Ukraine, but the US is sending 30+ of its own Abrams MBTs as well.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...e9d2e58d23acae I'm a bit concerned about the Abrams' logistical requirements (especially re their gas turbine engines). Apparently, that was one reason that the US initially balked at the transfer. It might end up being more helpful symbolically than militarily. The acquiescence may have been required to end Germany's reticence to authorize the transfer of the more numerous, less thirsty Leopards. Reports indicate that Ukrainian tank crews have been training on the Leopard in Poland for weeks now. My biggest worry is what Putin's response will be. There's been saber-rattling before the transfers were even confirmed. He may try something desperate before the modern Western MBTs arrive on the battlefield. This could lead to the escalation the German government was worried about. We shall see. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#478
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Current MBT commitments and possibilities.
UK - 14 Challenger 2 battle tanks, Germany - 14 Leopard 2 tanks (Arriving within 3 months), Poland - 14 Leopard 2 tanks, USA - 31 Advanced M1 Abrams tanks, Portugal - 4 Leopard 2 tanks Spain, Norway and Finland also said that they are going to send their own Leopard tanks but they are currently weighing the numbers. Also, Netherlands is considering to buy 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and providing them to Ukraine as they don't own any. Funny after always looking at a minimum of battalion numbers(40-58), these counts do look like T2k Division MBT numbers. |
#479
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 01-25-2023 at 03:09 PM. |
#480
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Spain's Leopard 2 apparently will be whatever can be repaired within 2 months from the 53 Leopard 2A4 currently in storage at Zaragoza. They have 108 total of that model, but the other 55 are in Spain's North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. They also have a bunch of Leopard 2E/2A6, but those are in active service and (AFAIK) not being discussed as potential transfers.
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The poster formerly known as The Dark The Vespers War - Ninety years before the Twilight War, there was the Vespers War. |
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