Operation Advent Crown

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

@Olefin: Any French evacuation of their Berlin enclave is going to be incredibly difficult in the midst of a modern shooting war. I can't think of any recent precedent for such an evacuation, really. Will NATO and the WTO consent to a cease fire in order to allow the French to withdraw? Perhaps, but since doing so would open a corridor from Berlin to the west, such a cease fire could benefit NATO much more than the WTO, so I don't see the Soviets agreeing.

I think a more likely outcome is one side or the other "impounding" the French forces in Berlin with the understanding that they would be repatriated as soon as possible. The French wouldn't really be in a position to demur. I suppose they could fight back, but it would be futile. Would the French government order a last stand, or agree to the arrangement? I tend to conclude the latter.

If NATO does the impounding, it insults French pride and gives France yet another reason to turn on the alliance. If the Soviets do it, it creates a pretty cool adventure/campaign scenario, giving French PCs a "Going Home" scenario of their own. Either way, it opens the door for some French military vehicles showing up in the service of NATO and/or the WTO in eastern Germany/Poland for years to come.

I think the impounding is much more likely as well - and possibly some French soldiers joining up with their NATO allies - always said there should be some Belgians and French who either defected over to NATO or said screw this and joined up with NATO and fought against the Soviets.

[Raellus]

Agreed. This is also a good premise for those who wish to play pro-NATO/anti-Soviet French or Belgian PCs in conventional European-based T2K campaigns.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

But the whole of T2K game is unlikely, and even more so the outcome in 2300AD if you like to follow that future history.

Mexico taking the whole US South-West and keeping it is the biggest, but there are nationalist/ethnic conflicts and historical land grabs going on everywhere.

The Soviets invading China and occupying Manchuria. The West Germans unifying (invading) East Germany. Italy invading Austria. France invading Germany and the Netherlands (remember Napoleon). Quebec in Canada supported by the French. The Republic of Ireland in invading Northern Ireland. Scottish and Welsh nationalist uprisings in Britain. In 2000 the Soviet states and army units are starting to break up along ethnic lines.

The Germans actually have some historical claim to much of modern Poland and more. In 1945 Alsace-Lorraine was transferred back to France, Malmedy to Belgium and the Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia. The German border with Poland was shifted west to the Oder-Neisse Line, with Silesia and most of Pomerania transferred to Poland and East Prussia divided between Poland and Russia. That is about 100 years shorter than the last Mexican-American War and the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo.

Until 1970 the West German government which was very democratic and very liberal adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine, which refused to recognise the legitimacy of the German Democratic Republic or have any diplomatic relations with any other country who did excluding the USSR because they had to. West Germany also refused to recognise the legitimacy of the Oder-Neisse line and the loss of German territories under the terms of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The nationalist West German military officers who plotted German unification with their East German counterparts right under the noses of their own governments, both Superpowers and all the other members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact are far from democratic and liberal.

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Agreed. This is also a good premise for those who wish to play pro-NATO/anti-Soviet French or Belgian PCs in conventional European-based T2K campaigns.

Likewise, folks who want to play Italian Alpini or (limited other) troops could, beyond the "defector" premise, could use members of the Allied Command Europe Mobile Force (AMF-L), a multinational brigade-sized force that was in Norway in 1996 and included an Italian alpini battalion and a battery of 105mm mountain guns. Its quite possible that those units, or soldiers assigned to them, decided to ignore the recall order when Italy left NATO, especially when viewed in light of Italian domestic politics. It is possible that there was a change in government, precipitated by the war, that saw the communists take over, or at least have a role as kingmaker and demand Italian withdrawal from the war and NATO. Anti-communist officers could decide to remain at the front alongside their NATO allies fighting Soviet troops. They could end up in Germany post-1997 by tagging along with the US 6th ID, which relocated there following the failure of the Kola offensive.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

But the whole of T2K game is unlikely, and even more so the outcome in 2300AD if you like to follow that future history.

Mexico taking the whole US South-West and keeping it is the biggest, but there are nationalist/ethnic conflicts and historical land grabs going on everywhere.

The Soviets invading China and occupying Manchuria. The West Germans unifying (invading) East Germany. Italy invading Austria. France invading Germany and the Netherlands (remember Napoleon). Quebec in Canada supported by the French. The Republic of Ireland in invading Northern Ireland. Scottish and Welsh nationalist uprisings in Britain. In 2000 the Soviet states and army units are starting to break up along ethnic lines.

The Germans actually have some historical claim to much of modern Poland and more. In 1945 Alsace-Lorraine was transferred back to France, Malmedy to Belgium and the Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia. The German border with Poland was shifted west to the Oder-Neisse Line, with Silesia and most of Pomerania transferred to Poland and East Prussia divided between Poland and Russia. That is about 100 years shorter than the last Mexican-American War and the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo.

Until 1970 the West German government which was very democratic and very liberal adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine, which refused to recognise the legitimacy of the German Democratic Republic or have any diplomatic relations with any other country who did excluding the USSR because they had to. West Germany also refused to recognise the legitimacy of the Oder-Neisse line and the loss of German territories under the terms of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The nationalist West German military officers who plotted German unification with their East German counterparts right under the noses of their own governments, both Superpowers and all the other members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact are far from democratic and liberal.

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

FYI I never agreed with Mexico keeping as much of the Southwest and Texas as they did either - for a big reason that much of what they took is dependent on water coming from the north in areas under US control - so any chance of them holding CA north of San Diego and the Imperial Valley is a zero chance - not unless they can build massive desalinization plants or have gas to ship millions of gallons of water northward.

And I agree with you about the Germans - especially the area taken from Germany between Poland and the current German border - basically there is nothing left to stop the Germans from taking that area and holding it - especially after the US Army gives up that amount of armor, ammo, etc. to the Germans.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

If you think that the remains of the Bundeswehr would have the strength c.2001 to fight a two-front war (v. France in the west, and v. Polish & Soviet forces in the east), then roll with that. I respectfully disagree. I think your assessment of comparative strengths is off by a pretty wide margin. I don't know if it's still viewable, but if so, please take a look at the Winter 2000-2001 unit map of Europe that I created, based on Going Home.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=4781

Even discounting Soviet units that fall into the following categories:

* loyal, but unwilling to take offensive action
** no longer accepting orders from Pact
*** no longer accepting orders from higher headquarters
**** loyal to the Polish Free Congress
***** Ceased to exist as coherent unit

... there are still a lot of foreign military units that would stand in the way of German offensive action into western Poland. By a quick count, there are 17 German divisions and 24 Soviet. If you throw in pro-Communist Polish and Czech divisions, the disparity is even greater. I reckon that, at the very least, PFC units would not cooperate with German territorial grabs in the east. In fact, I tend to think that they would actively resist said, adding more opposing divisions to the equation.

Keep in mind that this map does not show French-Belgian-Dutch forces occupying German territory. And I discounting the active assistance of American and British units left behind post-OMEGA. IIRC, the Brits are trying to go home themselves, and I can't think of a compelling reason that the Americans would help the Germans forcefully annex Polish territory.

And we haven't even touched on internal security issues within German-controlled territory. Of the top of my head, I recall several mentions in Going Home of marauder units (German and American), petty warlords, and such operating on German soil. The German military is going to have its hands for several months or maybe even years simply trying to pacify and reestablish central gov't control of its own territory.

If you still think that Germany could/would re-invade western Poland whilst either ceding pre-war territory to France and/or fighting the French in the west, then good for you. I don't begrudge your opposing views, nor should you care if I did. The beauty of the T2KU is that it is what the individual GM wants to make it.

[Olefin]

Sorry should have been clearer - what I was talking about was the Germans basically accepting the French takeover of their territory and fighting a one front war to get back the lands in the East, accepting that there is no way they can fight and win a war against France to get back the Rhineland - especially given a France that still has nukes and air power (which Germany lacks in both aspects)

and the US and Canadian cut off units would be part of that effort - you help us get back our land and we get you home in a second convoy (eventually) or get you back to Bremerhaven where at least you can get picked up and sent to the Middle East where the remaining US forces are still very active indeed (and where the arrival of the 2nd Marine Division would be a very welcome addition indeed)

a Germany crazy enough to try a two front war in their current condition is not something I am advocating in any way

[Raellus]

To add to my point, I don't even see a strong motivation for the Germans to head east in the first place. By 2001, we're talking about historical claims that are over 50 years old. On the T2K map, I don't see a single Soviet or Polish units on post-1945 OR pre-1996 German soil as of 2001. What would be the point?

Why rekindle the most destructive war in the history of the world just to reclaim pre-1945 territories? Is German (or, more specifically, Prussian) nationalism going to be so strong in 2001, that the German public would support a "restore Grossdeutchland" war politically, logistically, or militarily when the extant country is currently in serious disarray AND post-1945/pre-1997 German territory is occupied by a foreign power? How many German soldiers still alive in 2001 would be willing to risk their lives to retake Prussia? IMHO, these are purely rhetorical questions, because there are no compelling answers.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

To add to my point, I don't even see a strong motivation for the Germans to head east in the first place. By 2001, we're talking about historical claims that are over 50 years old. On the T2K map, I don't see a single Soviet or Polish units on pre-1945 OR pre-1996 German soil as of 2001. What would be the point?

Why rekindle the most destructive war in the history of the world just to reclaim pre-1945 territories? Is German nationalism going to be that strong in 2001 to support such a "restore Grossdeutchland" war politically, logistically, or militarily when the country is in disarray AND post-1945/pre-1997 German territory is occupied by a foreign power? IMHO, these are purely rhetorical questions, because there are no compelling answers.

Keep in mind that is why the last NATO offensive was launched in 2000 - to gain control of the Baltic coastline and much of the area that used to be part of Germany

So given that, now heavily reinforced with the entire remaining US armored force as well as most of their AA and artillery they may decide to do that again - at the very least using the excuse of rescuing the cutoff American and Canadian units - and then deciding now that we are here we are staying

and the remaining Soviet units are for the most part done with the war - if the Germans attacked they may just say the hell with it and head for home - yes there are lots of Soviet and Polish units left - but almost none of them are still loyal to the various HQ's

and the Germans arent stupid - they arent going for Warsaw or Lodz or the Soviet border -and they wont try to go for Konigsberg or East Prussia in any way - those places the Soviets would fight for

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind that is why the last NATO offensive was launched in 2000 - to gain control of the Baltic coastline and much of the area that used to be part of Germany

Nowhere is it made clear in canon why the Summer 2000 offensive was launched. There are a few vague hints, nothing more. We've had quite spirited debates here in other threads regarding possible reasons- oil shale, Baltic fisheries, spoiling attack, etc. One can't assume it was simply for nationalistic, restore the pre-1945 borders reasons.

According to the map (based on Going Home), there are no cut-off U.S./Canadian/British units aside from the 5th ID (presumed destroyed) and the 8th ID. Why would the Germans fight to bring two broke-ass American units into the fold? The map shows that XI Corps has a clear shot back to Germany with no Polish or Soviet units standing in the way.

Yes, some Soviet units would retreat* or surrender if the Germans launched a major offensive, but a significant number of others would not, resisting either out of loyalty to the remains of the Soviet gov't or to protect their Polish cantonments.

Would it be worth fighting to seize even a 10-mile buffer zone into post-1945 Polish territory? You and RN7 seem to envision a bellicose, aggressive German gov't/military c.2001. That's cool, but I don't.

Now, if the Germans could snatch back some small chunks of pre-1945 territory at no cost, then sure. They might even go so far to sponsor a low-intensity/guerrilla war in W. Poland, kind of like what IRL Russia is doing in Eastern Ukraine. But a big, conventional offensive, relying on the bulk of the surviving Bundeswehr to take back a few hundred square miles of pre-1945 German territory? I don't think so. Keep in mind, the Soviets still have a few nukes left. Do you think they're going to allow the Germans to creep closer to the old Soviet border? Again? I don't. Why would the Germans risk another nuking for eastern territory? It's borderline madness.

The cost benefit analysis just doesn't support continuing the war.


*Begging the question, why didn't they do so earlier? If they couldn't retreat when not under attack (widely accepting as the most difficult operational maneuver in all of warfare), how could they when they are?

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

If you think that the remains of the Bundeswehr would have the strength c.2001 to fight a two-front war (v. France in the west, and v. Polish & Soviet forces in the east), then roll with that. I respectfully disagree. I think your assessment of comparative strengths is off by a pretty wide margin. I don't know if it's still viewable, but if so, please take a look at the Winter 2000-2001 unit map of Europe that I created, based on Going Home.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=4781

Even discounting Soviet units that fall into the following categories:

* loyal, but unwilling to take offensive action
** no longer accepting orders from Pact
*** no longer accepting orders from higher headquarters
**** loyal to the Polish Free Congress
***** Ceased to exist as coherent unit

... there are still a lot of foreign military units that would stand in the way of German offensive action into western Poland. By a quick count, there are 17 German divisions and 24 Soviet. If you throw in pro-Communist Polish and Czech divisions, the disparity is even greater. I reckon that, at the very least, PFC units would not cooperate with German territorial grabs in the east. In fact, I tend to think that they would actively resist said, adding more opposing divisions to the equation.

Keep in mind that this map does not show French-Belgian-Dutch forces occupying German territory. And I discounting the active assistance of American and British units left behind post-OMEGA. IIRC, the Brits are trying to go home themselves, and I can't think of a compelling reason that the Americans would help the Germans forcefully annex Polish territory.

And we haven't even touched on internal security issues within German-controlled territory. Of the top of my head, I recall several mentions in Going Home of marauder units (German and American), petty warlords, and such operating on German soil. The German military is going to have its hands for several months or maybe even years simply trying to pacify and reestablish central gov't control of its own territory.

If you still think that Germany could/would re-invade western Poland whilst either ceding pre-war territory to France and/or fighting the French in the west, then good for you. I don't begrudge your opposing views, nor should you care if I did. The beauty of the T2KU is that it is what the individual GM wants to make it.

This not a case of the Germans invading Poland as they are already in Poland, and they are in Northern Poland were the German action is.

From NATO Vehicle Guide 1 and NATO Combat Vehicle Handbook 2 for German divisions in 2000

29th Panzer Division (3,000 troops, 24 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
6th Panzergrenadier Division (2,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
21st Panzergrenadier Division (1,600 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Northern Poland


Also in East Germany.

27th Panzer Division (5,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Beeskow, East Germany
2nd Panzergrenadier Division (6,000 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Leipzig, East Germany
4th Panzergrenadier Division (3,000 troops, 14 Leopard 2): Plauen, East Germany
28th Panzergrenadier Division (1,500 troops, 10 Leopard 2): Zwickau, East Germany
211th Panzergrenadier Division (5,000 troops, 6 Leopard 2): Altenburg, East Germany


Also from NATO Vehicle Guide 1 all independent battalions and regiments units assigned to III German Corps, most of VI German Corps, and half of II German Corps in East Germany and Northern Poland


And from Going Home

Ex-Soviet 94th Cavalry Division (800 troops): Beeskow, East Germany

And GDW did miss a lot of German units which are likely to exist in T2K

[Raellus]

It's pretty clear that I'm not going to change your mind, but I'd still like to respond to your latest round of arguments and supporting evidence.

Originally Posted by RN7

This not a case of the Germans invading Poland as they are already in Poland, and they are in Northern Poland were the German action is.

I thought the debate was about whether it is plausible that the Germans resume offensive action in Poland, in 2001, to liberate/annex former (i.e. pre-1945) German territory.

If your point is that German units already occupying Polish soil c.2001 are likely to continue doing so, there's no dispute. In 2001, large military units are tied to the land in ways they haven't been for centuries. If German units were safely ensconced in W. Poland, they would probably remain there. However, according to Going Home, no German units are on Polish soil as of November 2000.

Originally Posted by RN7

From NATO Vehicle Guide 1 and NATO Combat Vehicle Handbook 2 for German divisions in 2000

29th Panzer Division (3,000 troops, 24 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
6th Panzergrenadier Division (2,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
21st Panzergrenadier Division (1,600 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Northern Poland

What in-universe date is giving for those deployments? Summer 2000? Winter 2000-2001? Later? That info would help.

Going Home gives unit locations as of Nov. 2000, and is more specific, identifying cities as opposed to vague regions. Your sources and Going home also differ as to the locations themselves, as Going Home has all three German divisions located in Germany as of Nov. 2000.

29th PD in Lubeck (Germany, post 1945)
6th PGD in Hamburg (ditto)
21st PGD in Bremen (ditto).

Originally Posted by RN7

Also in East Germany.

27th Panzer Division (5,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Beeskow, East Germany
2nd Panzergrenadier Division (6,000 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Leipzig, East Germany
4th Panzergrenadier Division (3,000 troops, 14 Leopard 2): Plauen, East Germany
28th Panzergrenadier Division (1,500 troops, 10 Leopard 2): Zwickau, East Germany
211th Panzergrenadier Division (5,000 troops, 6 Leopard 2): Altenburg, East Germany

Also from NATO Vehicle Guide 1 all independent battalions and regiments units assigned to III German Corps, most of VI German Corps, and half of II German Corps in East Germany and Northern Poland

You didn't state your point that the above list is supposed to support, but I assume you're arguing that the Bundeswehr of 2001 has adequate combat power to mount a major offensive into western Poland (part of Germany pre-1945) in order to seize and hold territory that was, prior to the Cold War partition, part of Germany (at least, under the Nazi regime).

Fair play, but what about the Soviet and Polish units in western Poland, c. 2001? Again, I refer you to the map I made from unit dispositions from Going Home. The German force you listed is opposed by a roughly equal, if not numerically/materially superior force of Soviet and Polish units. There's nothing near the 3-to-1 attacker-to-defender ratio conventional military wisdom holds as highly desirable for a mounting successful offensive operation.

Originally Posted by RN7

And from Going Home

Ex-Soviet 94th Cavalry Division (800 troops): Beeskow, East Germany

I'm not sure why you included this one ex-Soviet unit so I can't really comment. However, the presence of marauder units on German soil reinforces my point that the German gov't/military has more than enough problems to deal with at home before considering a largely symbolic land-grab further east. For example, according to Going Home, the Soviet 30th GMRD is in Pirna, just southeast of Dresden. From Going Home,

"4000 infantry, 18 AFVs. After its commander was killed, the executive officer of the 30th, V. I. Renko, took command, and began to set himself up as a local warlord in southern Germany, operating out of Pirna, southeast of Dresden. Fifteen of the unit's AFVs and about half of its men remain under his control, the remainder are presently operating as scattered bands of marauders in the area within 40 kilometers of Dresden."

This is the sort of thing that would need to be dealt with before any offensive into W. Poland could take place.

Originally Posted by RN7

And GDW did miss a lot of German units which are likely to exist in T2K

That's a whole different can of worms, with issues of canon v. GM discretion, the subjectivity of individual GM's "likely to exist" lists, etc.

If you want to have a bigger [than canon], more nationalistic, more aggressive Bundeswehr invading W. Poland in 2001 to restore parts of Grossdeutchland, then go for it. I don't begrudge you that artistic license. My point is simply that T2K canon doesn't support such an offensive, and I try to tie my T2KU as closely to canonical sources as I can. I say tomato, you say tomato. It's all good.

[RN7]

Its only a plausibility Raellus!