U.S. Marines on the Baltic: Task Force Inchon

[Raellus]

It's OK, guys.

I don't mind discussing anything and I don't claim that my stuff can't be improved upon. That said, Leg, when your apparent aim is to refute my original premise (a battalion-sized Marine TF in/around Elblag to secure the rest of 2 MarDiv's extreme left flank and pave the way for 8th ID's drive into the Baltic states) then there seems to be very little point in discussing anything.

I'll take you at your word though, Leg, and lay out a couple points and hopefully we can at least come to some sort of understanding, if not agreement.

Regarding sealift capacity: My premise assumes the presence of the Tarawa in the western Baltic (and I thought this was your position as well). With one or two additional amphibs, I don't see why a good chunk of 2 MarDiv can't be landed behind WTO lines in order to assist in the envelopment of the Polish units near the coast and west of Gdansk. To transport my battalion-sized TF, I used two smaller, former East German landing craft and a couple of converted minelayers/sweepers. I don't think that I'm going overboard here. Remember, not all of 2 MarDiv is conducting landings- a good part of it and all of its heavy armor is pushing east overland towards Gdansk.

Regarding logistics: My scenario envisions units that are a little more flexible and self-sufficient when it comes to logistics. Granted, this doesn't jive with modern, RL armies, but it does keep with one of the central visions of the T2K designers. If 5th ID and 8th IDs can operate essentially independently and well in advance of other allied units, why can't 2nd MarDiv, especially when it has amphibious support? If NATO controls that little slice of sea, logistics should probably be easier for 2 MarDiv than they would be for a landlocked unit like the 5th ID. If 8th ID can end up in Latvia (WTF!?!), then why is Elblag to far east an objective for a TF from 2 MarDiv? In my mind, 5th and 8th IDs deep "raid" attacks seem much less viable if other allied units aren't also pushing further west (at least to Gdansk)

My scenario also imagines a slightly larger offensive than you seem to not be embracing now. In my German III Army Summer Offensive, most of XI Corps is tasked with cutting off the peninsula from Gdansk to the west, 8th ID is conducting a major deep-penetration raid east along the Baltic shelf, and 5th ID is conducting a diversionary raid to the SE. III German Corps is conducting a direct, wide frontage attack east, largely to hold the stronger WTO forces it faces in place so that XI Corps doesn't have to worry about it's long flank as it moves east to Gdansk. Taken as a whole, I think this summer offensive makes a lot of sense, at least in the T2K world c.2000.

Regarding Polish passivity: Yes, I totally agree with you that counting on little Polish resistance would be a very foolish gamble on the part of the planners of 3rd German Army's summer offensive. I'm my T2KU, though, NATO is acting on intel from a well-placed Polish "agent" with a murky connection to the nascent PFC. In the end, it was clearly wishful thinking, and it definitely turned out to be a collosal error of judgment (perhaps the "agent" was actually a cunning double). But this scenario is not terribly flar-flung; it echoes real world situations where bad intel has suckered wishful thinkers. Most recently, leading up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the U.S. was led by an influential Iraqi exile (his name escapes me at the moment) to believe that the Iraqi people would welcome the American invaders and quickly accept a government in which he would play a prominent role. This was what the administration wanted to hear and it was one of the factors that motivated the final decision to invade Iraq and topple Saddam. The exile was quickly discredited and the U.S. found itself mired in a half-decade-long guerilla war.

I won't argue your point about unit strength. It looks like you've got me there. If canon states that unit strength listed in the modules and sourcebooks include REMFs, then I will either accept it, or purposefully overlook it. I won't claim that my take is better, more reasonable, etc.

To sum up, I want to restate the entire premise of my version of events. I'm not trying to create the definitive version of German 3rd Army's summer offensive here, or even just 2nd MarDiv's role in it. I'm quite satisfied with my version- I think it holds to the spirit of T2K and the elements of the offensive explicitly outlined in canon and, more importantly, it works well with the scenario that I wrote for my "Beach Too Far" campaign. But, if it doesn't work for others, that's fine. I'm not attempting to dictate anything. I wanted to run an "Escape from Kalisz" type game for Marines in 2000 and my Summer Offensive scenario was built around plausibly setting that up. TF Inchon is supposed to be too far east- otherwise, the campaign scenario doesn't work. Whenever I create something for T2K, I do hope other people like it and, ideally, even use it. But I totally understand and accept that others most likely won't. I don't agree that my stuff is somehow outlanding or highly improbable, though. I think it's highly logical and, in the T2K world, quite plausible.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Regarding sealift capacity: My premise assumes the presence of the Tarawa in the western Baltic (and I thought this was your position as well).

Correct, although what happens to it after the landings is open to debate.
The 2nd Marines would indeed require the use of pretty much all available amphibious shipping in the northern European theatre.

Originally Posted by Raellus

Regarding logistics: My scenario envisions units that are a little more flexible and self-sufficient when it comes to logistics. Granted, this doesn't jive with modern, RL armies, but it does keep with one of the central visions of the T2K designers.

Absolutely agree. It's been several years since the nuclear exchanges and resupply from outside the immediate AO stopped cold. This requires a major reorganisation of the supporting units and (as I'll show in a few days with my take on the 2nd Marines OOB circa early 2000) many of those units would have to be folded into the divisional structure to enable more efficient use of the minimal resources.

It's my belief (as stated in other older threads) that the bulk of the German III Army was to have been supplied by sea, which means the loss of a ship or two of the size and capability of the Tarawa would have been catastrophic not just for the Marines, but for the entire Corps (if not German III Army)!
If a ship of that size could be taken out, it's probable smaller ships and landing craft were also lost. This appears to be supported by the continued presence of the XI Corps in northern Poland in Going Home - severe shortage of shallow draft vessels to enable the Corps to be evacuated by sea, even though there was sufficient vessels to land the Marines just a few months earlier.

Originally Posted by Raellus

My scenario also imagines a slightly larger offensive than you seem to not be embracing now.

My very first post on this forum was all about advocating a MUCH larger scale offensive than had previously been envisaged. It's not entirely the same as your vision, but the XI Corps elements are very similar.

Originally Posted by Raellus

...it works well with the scenario that I wrote for my "Beach Too Far" campaign.

That it does. My intention is simply to assist where I can, offer alternative views and hopefully help you write the best possible scenario you can.

One small detail which drew my attention today is that as of the 01JUL00, the 8th ID is already reported in all sources to already be in Latvia. Perhaps winding back the clock by a month your scenario could better line up with the canon materials? A slightly earlier landing by the marines would also reduce the pressure on the main front by possibly forcing the Pact commanders to redeploy units eastwards to contain the marines and therefore allow the XI Corps to break through the defending units a little easier - at least that may have been the theory....
Reality might have been somewhat different with units on the front lines staying where they were and reserve units far behind the lines (Ukraine, Russia?) moved up instead. These reserve units may have been judged too far away to be a significant threat during the Nato planning stages as it was assumed they had no petroleum fuels/lower numbers of horses.

[Legbreaker]

Rae, where do you have TF Inchon landing?
This might be of interest to you also. http://www.maritime.com.pl/port/indexp-en.php?p=ELBLAG

[Raellus]

Thanks for the site, Leg. It looks rather informative.

In my scenario, Tarawa is taken out of action by a concerted and audacious and ultimately suicidal attack by a Soviet diesel sub and a couple of missile boats, during a brief summer storm on the Baltic. The Soviets decided to risk some of its last coastal defense units to bag a big NATO amphib. Since, in my T2KU at least, the Soviets were also preparing a major summer offensive/counteroffensive, this naval attack was quickly made part of their larger strategy in the region.

I'll have to check the relevant sources again for a specific date by which the 8th ID has reached Latvia. That seems way early considering that the 5th ID hasn't even started it's raid by then (IIRC). If that's really the date explicitly given, I may have to wilfully ignore it.

[rcaf_777]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Regarding sealift capacity: My premise assumes the presence of the Tarawa in the western Baltic (and I thought this was your position as well). With one or two additional amphibs, I don't see why a good chunk of 2 MarDiv can't be landed behind WTO lines in order to assist in the envelopment of the Polish units near the coast and west of Gdansk. To transport my battalion-sized TF, I used two smaller, former East German landing craft and a couple of converted minelayers/sweepers. I don't think that I'm going overboard here. Remember, not all of 2 MarDiv is conducting landings- a good part of it and all of its heavy armor is pushing east overland towards Gdansk.

Why do you need the Tarawa I mean both Denmark and Germany have islands suitable for launching coastal raids. You mention divisionary attacks; well having a few companies land along the Polish coast is a good way to tying up troops. Having marines doing raids vs. sea based invasion means for supply they carry it all with them, they then withdraw. Also instead of huge anti ship missile target let not forget the RFA Sir Galahad in Flaklands in 1982.

Many of the NATO nations have marines and landing craft that are capble of conducting raid along the baltic coast.

I think added a few RM Raiders and Dutch Marines would also allow a PC unit to have character of other nationalites

Also most of former East German Navy Equipment was scrapped or sold in early 1991

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_ship_classes

[Raellus]

You make a couple of good points, RCAF. If the attack was just part of a series of raids, the Tarawa almost certainly wouldn't be risked. On that note, my TF Inchon (Law has advised that I should probably change the unit name since Marines name TF's after the TF's main unit)- one of the smaller units participating independently and the one landed furthest east- was landed by two smaller East German landing craft and a couple of converted minelayers/sweepers. You pointed out that they had been scrapped in the early '90s, but I use the v1.0 timeline in which the Cold War continued unabated until WWIII. In that world, a lot of military hardware that was retired, sold off, or scrapped in our real-world timeline would have been kept around. The Cold War was largely a numbers game. If East Germany still existed in '96, and still kept marine infantry type units, they would have kept their handful of amphibs.

Inchon, however, is part of a larger operation, already described. The Tarawa is landing the main force of Marines closer to Gdansk. Several NATO destroyers and frigates are providing security. Two of the escorts, however, were protecting the Inchon landing craft and so weren't able to intervene during the attack on the Tarawa.

For a more "classic T2K" small unit type campaign, a group of NATO SF recon/raiders could be certainly be the focal point, operating anywhere around Gdansk, including Elblag.

I posted a pan-NATO SOF group a while back that GMs could use as a premise for multi-national commando units conducting reconaissance and raiding missions in NW Poland. For coastal recon, you could have Marine recon, RM/SBS, Dutch Marines, German KSK, Danish frogmen or Jaegercommandos, Norwegian SF, etc.

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.p...llied+commando

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I posted a pan-NATO SOF group a while back that GMs could use as a premise for multi-national commando units conducting reconaissance and raiding missions in NW Poland. For coastal recon, you could have Marine recon, RM/SBS, Dutch Marines, German KSK, Danish frogmen or Jaegercommandos, Norwegian SF, etc.

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.p...llied+commando

I don't know how I missed that thread at the time you started it, Rae, but I love that idea. It's very T2K.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Targan

I don't know how I missed that thread at the time you started it, Rae, but I love that idea. It's very T2K.

Thanks, Targan. I'm quite pleased that you like it.

I've often thought that a special forces raid against the Soviet Army HQ in Malbork (probably headquartered in the old Teutonic order castle there) would be a really cool one-off. One of these days, perhaps...

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Raellus

In my scenario, Tarawa is taken out of action by a concerted and audacious and ultimately suicidal attack by a Soviet diesel sub and a couple of missile boats, during a brief summer storm on the Baltic.

With the remnants of the Polish Navy at Gdynia that's certainly plausible. It's my guess the Tarawa (which we know was in the area due to a colour plate in the Nautical & Aviation book) was already damaged and was probably operating without it's full suite of sensors and defensive weapons. Chances are not much more than a portable radar unit placed on the flight deck and a few AA guns and missiles would have been available - perhaps judged enough after an inaccurate Intel report showing there were next to no serious threats (torpedo boats, etc) left in the region.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I'll have to check the relevant sources again for a specific date by which the 8th ID has reached Latvia. That seems way early considering that the 5th ID hasn't even started it's raid by then (IIRC).

There's no "arrival" date however all books show the 8th in Latvia as of the 1st of July 2000.
As posted previously, it seems plausible at least that the XI Corps attack started before the 19th of June, and their "raid" as detailed in the "Death of a Division" scenario was simply a new phase of the operation. As posted, their "starting position" just seems too deep within enemy held ground or them to have spent the previous winter there without being cut off.

Civilian shipping could have been used to transport the Marines as well as the Tarawa and any other military vessels in the area. In fact I'd wager the operation couldn't have been pulled off without pressing into service a tanker, couple of small cargo ships and perhaps a Ro-Ro/passenger ferry or two. The Tarawa itself would probably be sufficent to carry the heavy machinery of the Division (1900 troops, 100 tanks and 160 trucks, probably more vehicles and supplies given the lack of airpower needing the hangars and flight deck) but with 4,000 fully equipped soldiers to move from Germany (I'm guessing Kiel since the German III Army HQ is there and there's a decent port)...

The draft 2nd Marine OOB I've nearly finished leaves just enough AAVPs (about 40, down from over 160 prewar) to shift only about 700 men at a time. Add in the 2 LCUs, 1 LCAC (fuel consumption? YIKES!), and 4 LCPLs and you might be looking at 1000 in one go (probably less as there's very likely to be less of these landing craft available by 2000).