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#154
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__________________
I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like... victory. Someday this war's gonna end... |
#156
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"A couple batteries" for Taiwan being 100 trucks carrying 400 missiles (plus another 25 radar trucks). The deferment was postponing delivery from 2024 to 2025.
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The poster formerly known as The Dark The Vespers War - Ninety years before the Twilight War, there was the Vespers War. |
#157
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This article includes a very T2k photo of a BMP-1 painted in the colors of the Unified German military.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...les-to-ukraine Interestingly, "The German government's approval of the transfer of the 56 Pbv-501s to Ukraine reportedly came after an earlier request from Czech authorities was denied. The need for authorities in Germany to authorize the deal at all is a product of the original sale of these Soviet-era vehicles, which it had inherited from the defunct East German military, to Sweden. The Swedish government had then sold them to the Czech Republic." -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#158
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com |
#159
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Just read a interesting post on the BBC News website about the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regt and the amount of losses they have taken.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60946340 The interesting bit is right at the end where they list the names and ranks. That is a lot of officers killed and also a lot of senior NCOs. Out of those listed I would say its around 50%. Now is that a example of leading from the front or are the Ukrainians targeting unit leadership to make the Privates run? |
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Not sure how to embed it but I just caught a short video of Russian troops being abandoned; drone footage shows a bunch of guys running after the last truck seen leaving wherever they were holed up.
"Удачи, вы сами по себе." https://nz.news.yahoo.com/russian-ar...072747190.html
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THIS IS MY SIG, HERE IT IS. |
#161
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Ok, here's my amateur interpretation of where things currently stand:
The Russian Army is in some state of partial collapse, having abandoned the attack of Kiev and failing to make substantive advances ont he ground in weeks. Stockpiles of precision guided munitions have been largely depleted, the Ural tank plant has stopped production and the 135,000 conscripts called up last week will take months to be trained and formed into effective combat units. Nontraditional sources of reinforcements (Wagner group mercs, 16,000 Syrian veterans and various Chechen private armies) are unlikely to arrive in sufficient mass and be able to integrate effectively into the Russian armed forces to effect the outcome. Byelorussian units are unlikely to intervene on Russia's behalf. The Russian military itself is scraping the bottom to the barrel for combat troops, having denuded the Pacific Fleet of Marines, for example. The Ukrainians are likely to follow/drive the Russians back to the Byelorussian border in the north. Mariupol is probably lost, the Russians control about 85% of it. The Russian units retreating from the Kiev front are likely to be re-commited in the Donbas region, or at least allow a shuffle of uncommited units (if any exist) to the Donbas. The Russian hope is that the influx of troops there will shore up the front line enough to resist the coming Ukrainian counterattack. To limit the scope of the counterattack the Russians are trying to tie down as many Ukrainian troops as they can in other areas, launching diversionary attacks in Odessa and Kharkov to prevent the Ukrainian command from stripping those areas of troops to reinforce the counterattack. Russian control of occupied areas is tenuous, with repeated anti-occupation protests in the only city they have occupied, Kherson. The Russians lack sufficient troops to secure these areas, and attempts to recruit local sympathizers to assume administrative duties has failed as heavy-handed kidnappings of local government officials feeds civilian resistance. Russian attacks on semi-beseiged cities and civilian facilities (shelters, schools, hospitals, apartment buildings) is intended to terrorize the Ukrainain population and destroy civilian morale, creating pressure on the Ukrainian government to sue for peace. The Ukrainian military is still smaller and limited in its abilities, although with very high morale. Allied aid has allowed them to prevail in the defensive battles and the government has a deep potential manpower pool. (They are currently only calling up veterans with combat experience since 2014, although accepting volunteers with less experience). The amount of training required for the Ukrainians to be outfitted with advanced non-Soviet equipment will be prohibitive - Stinger missiles can be used effectively with a few days of instruction, Patriots will require months of training, and NATO has largely retired the masses of equipment required for Ukraine to hastily form combined arms mechanized units. Going forward, on the battlefield my personal estimation is that the Russians will struggle to make any further territorial gains. The level of additional troops and their effectiveness that can be thrown in Donbas will effect how successful the Ukrainians are in recapturing that territory, although the Ukrainian drive will be largely of a light infantry/partisan nature, infiltrating behind Russian combat units and cutting them and their supporting logistic coumns to pieces in small packets. The Russians will continue to use whatever long-range munitions they have left to attack targets throughout the depth of Ukraine, but those attacks will continue to have little strategic effect other than unifying Ukrainians in the will to fight and keeping Western publics pressuring their governments to continue supporting Ukraine (hence Zelensky's address to parlianments around the world and Grammy awards message). Which brings us to where the war goes strategically going forward. I'm confident that the only meeting Putin will accept with Zelensky is to accept Zelensky's surrender. Not going to happen. The Russian propaganda machine has already recast the war goals from demilitarization and denazifaction of Ukraine - regime change - down to expansion of the separatist puppet states. The possibility of continued failue by the Russian military on the ground puts even this objective in doubt. The Ukrainians soon will be able go to the peace talks offering recognition of Russian control of Crimea and Donbas and a pledge to memorialize NATO non-membership and probably get Russian acceptance. (By the way, regime change in Moscow in the short term is probably not going to happen... the oligarchs are able to hide their money from Western sanctions, the urban middle class is fleeing and too small to effect a change and the 50% of the population in the regions and rural areas are too willing consumers of state propaganda to rise up against Putin. Now, in a year or two when the defeated Army is back home, please see 1905 and 1917!) Zelensky has to choose how to move forward in war termination... 1) seek a more or less immediate ceasefire, accepting the loss of territory in Crimea and Donbas, ending the bloodshed and leaving open a "frozen conflict" like the ones in South Osetia, Transdnistr and Nagorno-Karabakh, or 2) take the risk that the Russian miltiary collapse will continue and his forces will be able retake not only the territory they lost in the last 2 months but also the Donbas separatist regions without provoking a Russian escalation. Fairly high-level and simplified, but that's where I think things stand now! I'm happy to hear your thoughts!
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I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like... victory. Someday this war's gonna end... |
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Astute analysis, Chico- spot on, IMHO.
I don't think that Ukraine is going to be able to retake the Donbass (militarily, at least). The Ukrainian armed forces have excelled in defensive ops, but offense requires a lot more training, C2, and heavy weapons. The tables will turn if/when Ukraine attempts a strategic counteroffensive. Russian troops have failed pretty spectacularly in offensive ops, but again, defense is simpler, and their backs will be up against home soil (increasing motivation and easing logistics issues). The Russians also have solid local support in the de-facto separatist-controlled regions. It's hard to see Zelensky accepting permanent loss of regions of eastern Ukraine, especially in light of recent evidence of large-scale Russian war crimes, but there's probably not much he can do to stop it. He might be willing to cede Crimea at the negotiating table, but that's a fait accompli, but that's not likely to restore the status quo ante bellum. I don't see Putin as willing to give up anyterritory firmly under Russian control, so yeah, a frozen conflict seems the most likely outcome at this point. The fates of Donbass and Mariupol might depend on which leader, Putin or Zelensky lasts longer. In that contest, the ruthless autocrat has the advantage. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 04-04-2022 at 04:43 PM. |
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Cool find, Kato. Just wish the city names were easier to read.
Re the article linked below, it must be frustrating for Russian soldiers to be facing off against fresh waves of Russian-made (or designed, at least) AFVs. If Moscow only knew then (back in the 1970s & '80s) what it knows now... ![]() https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ded-to-ukraine I hope this deal doesn't get blocked like the 3rd party MiG-29 transfer. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#165
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The poster formerly known as The Dark The Vespers War - Ninety years before the Twilight War, there was the Vespers War. |
#166
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPou3yHX...name=4096x4096 Here is the latest largest picture https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPouUCxW...name=4096x4096 Source https://twitter.com/JominiW/ Not normally a twitter fan but information is information. |
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When this is over, Ukraine is going to need something like the Marshall Plan after World War 2. I heard a report on NewsNation that it will take more than $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine.
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com Last edited by pmulcahy11b; 04-06-2022 at 07:21 AM. Reason: Left something out, missepellings, that kind of thing |
#168
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Switchblade 600s have entered the fray. |
#169
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It'll be interesting to see what effect Switchblade- especially the anti-armor version- has on the conflict. I hope it's not too little, too late.
One way that T2k discussion on this forum has proved particularly prescient is evidenced by the improvised "special armor" increasingly seen fitted to Russian soft-skinned vehicles on the Ukraine battlefield. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...an-major-power I thought the MTLB engine hood mounted to the truck was particularly interesting. In my PotV PbP campaign, the crew used a similar trick to give the Wisla Krolowa river tug's bridge some protection against small arms fire. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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The poster formerly known as The Dark The Vespers War - Ninety years before the Twilight War, there was the Vespers War. |
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...manys-approval
What are the odds that this goes through? I doubt it'll happen, but I hope it does. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com Last edited by pmulcahy11b; 04-11-2022 at 03:51 PM. Reason: A sentence didn't make sense the way I first wrote it. |
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So Russia is withdrawing forces east. But looks like mounting a new attack in the south, with forces cueing up again along highways.
I wonder if their tactics will be different this time, if they learnt anything from the resistance they received from their initial thrusts. Or if it will just be the same grinding advance.
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"Beep me if the apocolypse comes" - Buffy Sommers |
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com |
#176
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ains-of-donbas In more positive news, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ine-by-the-u-s I wonder why Slovakia's MiGs are OK, but Poland's were too risky to transfer. ![]() -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 04-13-2022 at 09:35 AM. |
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com |
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Maybe the Polish wanted too much in return -- much more than simply F-16s, but something else that was not advertised. The Slovakians may have given NATO a better deal.
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com |
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Putin's current strategy may go something like this.
1. Take hammer. 2. Bash objective with hammer. 3a. If objective breaks, move on to next objective. 3b. If hammer breaks, put in requisition for a larger hammer. Repeat until all objectives have been broken, or the supply of hammers has been exhausted. Putin ran short of hammers trying to take Kyiv, so he's taking his remaining hammers east where he intends to whale away at the Ukrainians in the Donbas and along the Azov coast.
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I'm one of the ones they warned you about. . . |
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There may also be technology transfer issues. I seem to recall another War Zone article stating that Poland's MiGs have received some upgrades not present in the Slovakian fleet. - C.
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Clayton A. Oliver • Occasional RPG Freelancer Since 1996 Author of The Pacific Northwest, coauthor of Tara Romaneasca, creator of several other free Twilight: 2000 and Twilight: 2013 resources, and curator of an intermittent gaming blog. It rarely takes more than a page to recognize that you're in the presence of someone who can write, but it only takes a sentence to know you're dealing with someone who can't. - Josh Olson |
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