OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[kato13]

I agree they deserve it and more, but something like that could trigger an emotional response which leads to article 5, which leads to ???.

[kcdusk]

It might be we have painted ourselves into a corner. And the reason we can't find a solution, now, today. Is because the time for a solution to todays problems was 1, 3, 10 years ago. It could be the time to stand up to a bully was years ago, and we've missed our window.

[Jason]

As part of U.S. next $800 million in military aid to Ukraine we are including 200 M113's.

Battle taxis back in action.

Not really fit for front-line service in 2022, but probably usefull for re-supply and moving troops behind, but near the front lines.

[Raellus]

More military aid for Ukraine. Major highlights include:

CAESAR 155m SPAAGs (France)
T-72 tanks (Poland)
M84 tanks (Slovenia)
PzH2000 SPAAGs (Germany)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...s-could-follow

I kind of get it, but it still strikes me as strange how sending combat aircraft somehow "crosses a line" (towards escalation), considering how much killing power the above list represents (to say nothing of the thousands of Javelins, NLAWs, Matadors, MANPADS, etc. that the West has already sent Ukraine).

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[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I kind of get it, but it still strikes me as strange how sending combat aircraft somehow "crosses a line" (towards escalation), considering how much killing power the above list represents (to say nothing of the thousands of Javelins, NLAWs, Matadors, MANPADS, etc. that the West has already sent Ukraine).

Kind of hard for a Javelin to conduct deep strikes in Russian territory against strategic targets. I think that's one of the concerns.

- C.

Also, 72 more M777 tubes. With the previous 18, that's 5 full artillery battalions. Once delivered, Ukraine will be the 2nd largest user of 155mm M777 ultra light weight howitzers in the world.

[Targan]

Interesting article.

What this old Russian tank tells us about the invasion of Ukraine

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Targan

Interesting article.

What this old Russian tank tells us about the invasion of Ukraine

Well, it does seem to partially explain why Russian supply lines seem to be chronically overextended.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Ukraine's operational MiG-29 fleet has grown, but NOT because its received replacement aircraft.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...red-to-ukraine

Do you think NATO is covertly sending whole aircraft to Ukraine, but only publicly saying that they're sending spare parts?

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That may be a politically smarter way to send the Ukrainians aircraft...now if they could put some Warthogs and ammo on those trains...

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

Kind of hard for a Javelin to conduct deep strikes in Russian territory against strategic targets. I think that's one of the concerns.

Yeah, I get that, but, at this point (Mariupol falling any day now), giving the UAF parts to increase its operational MiG-29 fleet and just giving them more MiG-29s seems like a distinction without difference. The net effect is more or less the same.

The MiG-29 is relatively short-legged; given Russia's advantages in the air, the UAF also has to operate their aircraft from the western margins of the country. As a result, they pose more of a symbolic threat to Russian territory than a practical one. And the donors could make it clear to Kiev that any aircraft are not to be used outside of Ukraine's borders.

Yes, Moscow will cite any aircraft transfer as an escalation but, realistically, what are they likely to do about it? Yes, they could do something rash but, again, at this point, unless the West is willing to essentially cede the eastern (industrial) third of Ukraine to Russia in perpetuity, I think the risk is worth it.

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[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The MiG-29 is relatively short-legged; given Russia's advantages in the air, the UAF also has to operate their aircraft from the western margins of the country. As a result, they pose more of a symbolic threat to Russian territory than a practical one. And the donors could make it clear to Kiev that any aircraft are not to be used outside of Ukraine's borders.



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Maybe we should give them Su-27 "parts." They have over twice the operational range, and the Ukrainians did have a few of them until the war. Modify them to carry BLU-109s, and all that massed Russian armor turns into burning hulks after delivering a few of those.

What do you think happened to most of the Republican Guard's armor in OIF?

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

distinction without difference.

International Law and diplomacy seems based on distinctions. France has not used the word "Genocide" as if they do so they are compelled to act. A prime minister utters a single word and they have to change policy.

Originally Posted by Raellus

The MiG-29 is relatively short-legged

It can reach Moscow. When thinking about this I was amazed I remembered Mathias Rust's name. Add to that the ending of Clancy's Debt of Honor. (A pilot who lost everything he cared about trying to strike a knife into the heart of the enemy).

If we were publicly saying "We gave them these planes" and the next day a "War crime"(from the perspective of the Russians happens) using said planes. They get as riled up as we were on 9/11, who knows what happens next.

[kato13]

Breaking

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...-generals.html

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed a command operations center of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces, eliminating two enemy generals.

Speaking of hitting high priority targets. If this is true I believe Russia has lost as many generals in Ukraine as the US lost in the entire Vietnam conflict (11).

[Targan]

Outstanding!

[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

Maybe we should give them Su-27 "parts." They have over twice the operational range, and the Ukrainians did have a few of them until the war. Modify them to carry BLU-109s, and all that massed Russian armor turns into burning hulks after delivering a few of those.

What do you think happened to most of the Republican Guard's armor in OIF?

I don't think Ukraine currently has much need for bunker-busters (the BLU-109's role). If you meant the BLU-108 skeet dispenser, the 155mm artillery could produce a similar effect if provided with SMArt (Suchzünder Munition für die Artillerie 155) or BAE/Nexter BONUS shells, since each of those carry a pair of skeets in a 155mm shell. Australia, Germany, Greece, and Switzerland currently have SMArt while Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and the United States have BONUS.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Vespers War

If you meant the BLU-108 skeet dispenser,

Sorry about the mistake - BLU-108. It's just nastier and more "shock and awe" producing than an artillery barrage.

[kato13]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...fence-military

The German government has announced that it is to send a fleet of around 50 anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, as it attempts to offset criticism that it has been too slow to provide military equipment to the war-torn country.

Christine Lambrecht, the defence minister, pledged about the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, in a speech to the representatives of 40 countries at high-level defence talks hosted by the US air force at its Europe headquarters in Ramstein, south-west Germany.

Not sure if the Gepards have been consistently updated, but back when I paid a lot more attention to this stuff, I considered them the cream of the crop. I will have a lot of interest in the ad hoc units Ukraine will be forced to put together. Pulling this back to being on topic, the mish mash of equipment does have a very T2k feel to it.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by kato13

Not sure if the Gepards have been consistently updated, but back when I paid a lot more attention to this stuff, I considered them the cream of the crop. I will have a lot of interest in the ad hoc units Ukraine will be forced to put together. Pulling this back to being on topic, the mish mash of equipment does have a very T2k feel to it.

The Drive reported a couple of days ago that Switzerland has moved to stop the transfer of 35mm ammo for the Gepards, essentially rendering them very expensive decoys. I hope the Swiss change their minds.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...craft-vehicles

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[Raellus]

Have any of you ever used TOW-armed FAVs in your T2k?

Ukraine essentially is:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-russian-tanks

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[kato13]

25 point summary of the last week. (Includes 10 maps)

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1519893783537721346

First map I have seen of the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1519893793864101889

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRe73C-X...name=4096x4096

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The Drive reported a couple of days ago that Switzerland has moved to stop the transfer of 35mm ammo for the Gepards, essentially rendering them very expensive decoys. I hope the Swiss change their minds.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...craft-vehicles

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I have read that (perhaps lower tech) ammo can come from Poland and Turkey (and perhaps Norway).

https://www.army-technology.com/cont...tion/mesko-sa/
Mesko produces 35x228mm which wiki says the Gepard uses. I have not found the Turkish manufacturer but they are 35mm users and I can see them producing locally.

[shrike6]

Originally Posted by kato13

I have read that (perhaps lower tech) ammo can come from Poland and Turkey (and perhaps Norway).

https://www.army-technology.com/cont...tion/mesko-sa/
Mesko produces 35x228mm which wiki says the Gepard uses. I have not found the Turkish manufacturer but they are 35mm users and I can see them producing locally.

They might be restricted as well. I'm betting both Poland and Turkey have a licence to produce that ammo. It may restrict who they can sale to as well.

[kato13]

Brazil may be the way around it.

Ammo problem solved? Brazil wants to equip German Gepard tanks for Ukraine with 300,000 rounds

https://www-businessinsider-de.trans...n&_x_tr_pto=sc

Also in reading the press related to this they keep referring to "Swiss Made" rounds rather than "Swiss Licensed" rounds. I know reporters don't pay attention to details anymore, but that is a huge difference if that is the case.

[shrike6]

Originally Posted by kato13

I have read that (perhaps lower tech) ammo can come from Poland and Turkey (and perhaps Norway).

https://www.army-technology.com/cont...tion/mesko-sa/
Mesko produces 35x228mm which wiki says the Gepard uses. I have not found the Turkish manufacturer but they are 35mm users and I can see them producing locally.

I'm betting both Poland and Turkey have a licence to produce that ammo. It may restrict who they can sale to as well.

[chico20854]

One aspect I will be interested to read about in years to come (if/when it is declassified!) will be what is going on with the various fires in Russia over the last week. The chemical plant that produces most of Russia's missile propellant, two military research and development centers, various ammo and fuel dumps close to the Ukrainian border... Russia certainly has underinvested in maintenance and modernization of its facilities, resulting in a great many more fires on a day to day basis than we are used to, but this certainly looks like the work of Ukrainian special operations forces or intelligence agency paramilitaries.

I'll have the popcorn ready!

[Fallenkezef]

Originally Posted by chico20854

One aspect I will be interested to read about in years to come (if/when it is declassified!) will be what is going on with the various fires in Russia over the last week. The chemical plant that produces most of Russia's missile propellant, two military research and development centers, various ammo and fuel dumps close to the Ukrainian border... Russia certainly has underinvested in maintenance and modernization of its facilities, resulting in a great many more fires on a day to day basis than we are used to, but this certainly looks like the work of Ukrainian special operations forces or intelligence agency paramilitaries.

I'll have the popcorn ready!

Or maybe a false flag to justify a state of war to be announced at the big May Moscow parade?

[shrike6]

Originally Posted by kato13

I have read that (perhaps lower tech) ammo can come from Poland and Turkey (and perhaps Norway).

https://www.army-technology.com/cont...tion/mesko-sa/
Mesko produces 35x228mm which wiki says the Gepard uses. I have not found the Turkish manufacturer but they are 35mm users and I can see them producing locally.

MKE makes the barrels they also happen to make 35mm rounds in their ammunition division.

https://www.mkeusa.com/en-US/catalog...0-he-i/64/2130

Originally Posted by shrike6

MKE makes the barrels they also happen to make 35mm rounds in their ammunition division.

https://www.mkeusa.com/en-US/catalog...0-he-i/64/2130

Good point. Nothing from the Cold War should present any problems for this endeavor. Design patents in the US are 15 years in length and a quick Google search shows Swiss patents are 20 years: https://www.ige.ch/en/protecting-your-ip/patents

This is not exotic 6.8mm CT ammo. Every shop that can produce it, should. And then send it to Ukraine.

PS: Also, what's the threat here from the Swiss? We won't sell you ammo for 50-ish decades old weapons systems that you shoved in a warehouse years ago?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by chico20854

One aspect I will be interested to read about in years to come (if/when it is declassified!) will be what is going on with the various fires in Russia over the last week. The chemical plant that produces most of Russia's missile propellant, two military research and development centers, various ammo and fuel dumps close to the Ukrainian border... Russia certainly has underinvested in maintenance and modernization of its facilities, resulting in a great many more fires on a day to day basis than we are used to, but this certainly looks like the work of Ukrainian special operations forces or intelligence agency paramilitaries.

I'll have the popcorn ready!

I have a hunch it's cyber attacks, like Israel's Stuxnet attack on Iran's nuclear "research" centrifuges. I would be surprised if Ukraine hadn't been developing its cyberwarfare capabilities these past few years. Russia has a track record of hacking into Ukraine's power grid. Turnabout is fair play.

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[Vespers War]

Originally Posted by kato13

I have read that (perhaps lower tech) ammo can come from Poland and Turkey (and perhaps Norway).

https://www.army-technology.com/cont...tion/mesko-sa/
Mesko produces 35x228mm which wiki says the Gepard uses. I have not found the Turkish manufacturer but they are 35mm users and I can see them producing locally.

Aselsan is a Turkish manufacturer. They make an airburst round with tungsten pellets as the payload. NAMMO also manufactures ammo in 35x228mm, although I'm not sure where, given their multinational nature. And Rheinmetall makes some types of rounds in that caliber. I think Romarm in Romania also manufactures high explosive rounds (and training rounds), but not the more advanced rounds.