OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Louied]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I was listening to GEN (Ret) Wesley Clark, a former commander of NATO, on CNN the other day. (Yes, I know what some of you think of CNN; let's not go into that right now.) He said that while the troops and equipment are enough to make a wreck of Ukraine right now, to properly subjugate Ukraine, Russia would need on the order of 800,000 troops with attendant armor and vehicle to move the supply chain, and enough aircraft to gain air superiority over Ukraine.

The Russians don't have this right now. Mass conscription would be necessary, and the first task of the new troops would be to get currently POS vehicles running. While training for combat.

However, the invasion of Ukraine is going badly for the Russians. Even Russian commanders (secretly) acknowledge that they are overwhelmed at how badly the campaign is going. The war is also very unpopular in Russia herself, and conscription is going to go over like a lead balloon. You'll need loyal troops to provide armed guards over the conscripts to make sure they don't desert, and in general start a reign of terror over the conscripts.

You're also going to have a situation like in the 1960s-70s in the US, where conscripts "burn their draft cards" and generally don't show up when they are conscripted. They'll join the antiwar effort instead. Where they will be arrested, and then conscripted. There will be press gangs roaming Russia.

It's going to be a mess.

Excellent observations Paul! I guess the question now is does Putin look to save face and take over the two eastern regions and make Ukraine say "uncle" then withdraw and start a huge revamp of its forces? Strategy wise I would think (at I could be completely wrong) that was the best option. Then tag team with China as they make a move somewhere. Though I have a feeling China is taking some hard lessons from this themselves.

[Raellus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60602936

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[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Louied

Excellent observations Paul! I guess the question now is does Putin look to save face and take over the two eastern regions and make Ukraine say "uncle" then withdraw and start a huge revamp of its forces? Strategy wise I would think (at I could be completely wrong) that was the best option. Then tag team with China as they make a move somewhere. Though I have a feeling China is taking some hard lessons from this themselves.

My concern is that Russia will decide that the city of Kyiv is "too tough a nut to crack" with infantry and pull a Grozny in the circa 2000 Second Chechen War. He's already moving in the rockets and tube "grid square removers" (I love that term by the way) and attempting to surround the city and force capitulation. IF he decides to pull a Grozny, then he will move in the thermobaric weapons, and everyone in Kyiv will get a free cremation on Russia. My hope is that his advisors can talk him out of it based on the political and economic repercussions for doing so.