Population increase and decrease

[mmartin798]

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

As part of my research into a larger Free State, ran some interesting numbers…

The states that make up the larger Free State are listed below, followed by three sets of numbers; the population as of the 2000 Census/remaining population following the 95% die off/ the new population with a 0.8% growth rate and 150 years of growth.

Alabama: 4,447,100//222,355//489,181

Georgia: 8,186,453//409,323//900,511

Kentucky:4,041,769//202,089//444,596

Maryland: 5,296,486//264,824//582,613

New York: 18,976,457//948,823//2,087,410

North Carolina: 8,049,313//402.466//885,425

Pennsylvania: 12,281,054//614,053//1,350,917

South Carolina: 4,012,012//200,601//441,322

Tennessee: 5,689,283//284,464//625,821

Vermont: 608,827//30,441//66,970

West Virginia: 1,808,344//90,417//198,917

The "new" population totals include only projected birth rates, and do not account for the influx of slaves.

Based on this, IMHO, I truly don't see Kentucky as the center of the Free State, more likely Pennsylvania/New York would be the new center, with larger populations, access to minerals, recovered technology and the extensive university system in those two states.

Thoughts?

I just ran some numbers comparing 4th edition impact sites with a population map of New York by county. I made the assumption that only 1% would survive in the impact counties and 5% everywhere else. The numbers on this map were based on 2018 estimation with a total starting population of 19,862,512. After the applying the model, I get a postwar year zero population of 740720 for the state of New York. New York still has a sizable population, though it could be argued that a group forming in this are would be pushed toward Lake Ontario.

[dragoon500ly]

Depending on which nuke target list you use, I feel it is highly likely that there would a movement towards the western portions of New York and Pennsylvania. Maryland is a bit difficult with D.C./Baltimore, more likely a movement towards the northwest.

[RandyT0001]

I recently read a report that stated China's last decade's growth rate is 0.56% per year (about 7 million per year). This has already accounted for deaths but not necessarily migrations, into or out of China.

[Desert Mariner]

For anyone interested, I've overhauled my population projection spreadsheet to incorporate some changes:

1. U.S. population is now shown at the county/parish level. Canada is still at the provincial level.
2. Ability to increase the die off % in areas listed in the 3E target list.
3. Ability to define up to ten (10) separate growth periods with differing growth rates following TEOTWAWKI.
4. TEOTWAWKI can take place in any year between 1970 and 2019.

File is Excel 2013 format but it's backward compatible at least to 2010 and is about 1.2mb.

[nuke11]

Originally Posted by Desert Mariner

For anyone interested, I've overhauled my population projection spreadsheet to incorporate some changes:

1. U.S. population is now shown at the county/parish level. Canada is still at the provincial level.
2. Ability to increase the die off % in areas listed in the 3E target list.
3. Ability to define up to ten (10) separate growth periods with differing growth rates following TEOTWAWKI.
4. TEOTWAWKI can take place in any year between 1970 and 2019.

File is Excel 2013 format but it's backward compatible at least to 2010 and is about 1.2mb.

Can you post the updated file?

[Desert Mariner]

Originally Posted by nuke11

Can you post the updated file?

File is too big for the forum and I didn't want to mess with Google drive if no one was interested....



Any feedback is most welcome.

[nuke11]

That is a seriously detailed spreadsheet. I still need to sit down and give it a whirl.