Operation Advent Crown

[Benjamin]

Looking over the Advent Crown article again I think there are a few issues. Some of these are left overs from V1 canon while others stem from the fact that GDW never really addresses the issues. Remember the original timeline for the entire War was just a few pages in the Director’s Guide.

First, France. The West German entry into East Germany with military force and then the revelation that the two Germanys were colluding to reunite by force would have appalled and panicked the French government. It would instantly vindicated the DeGaulle supporters and their wish to keep NATO at arm’s length. BUT I don’t believe for a minute that while they withdrew from West Berlin that they would hand any over portion of it to the Soviets or East German Loyalists. More likely a deal was made wherein the French left, with all of their equipment and vehicles, while it was agreed that no further British, American or especially German forces would enter the city to replace the French. It is very likely that even the rail and air corridors remained open for travel. The Soviets, being at war with China would be doing quite a bit to keep the US out of the fighting. The Americans and British would have stayed but now stuck with having to defend the old French sector as well.

Canon though says that the Soviets invade Norway in mid-November; almost a full month before the remaining NATO allies join the fighting in East Germany. This along with possible missile attacks against north European ports would have ensured that Denmark, Norway and Netherlands remained NATO members. Oddly though it is possible that Belgian or perhaps even French forces went into Norway as part of ACE Mobile Force. I have a write up somewhere with my ideas about that and will look for it.

As for Poland...there is no way in hell that even the most hawkish leaders of Britain, Canada and the US agree to shift the Polish borders eastward. The only plausible explanation beyond an over eager German commander completely ignoring stop orders...Germany and Poland made a secret deal where Germany got Stettin while post-war would support a transfer of the Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland during peace negotiations. If agents within the new German government slip this to the Soviets it would be more provocative than the old Zimmerman Telegram. It’s possible this combined with desperation may have triggered the use of tactical nukes with any German troops on Soviet soil.

Benjamin

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Looking over the Advent Crown article again I think there are a few issues. Some of these are left overs from V1 canon while others stem from the fact that GDW never really addresses the issues. Remember the original timeline for the entire War was just a few pages in the Director’s Guide.

First, France. The West German entry into East Germany with military force and then the revelation that the two Germanys were colluding to reunite by force would have appalled and panicked the French government. It would instantly vindicated the DeGaulle supporters and their wish to keep NATO at arm’s length. BUT I don’t believe for a minute that while they withdrew from West Berlin that they would hand any over portion of it to the Soviets or East German Loyalists. More likely a deal was made wherein the French left, with all of their equipment and vehicles, while it was agreed that no further British, American or especially German forces would enter the city to replace the French. It is very likely that even the rail and air corridors remained open for travel. The Soviets, being at war with China would be doing quite a bit to keep the US out of the fighting. The Americans and British would have stayed but now stuck with having to defend the old French sector as well.

Canon though says that the Soviets invade Norway in mid-November; almost a full month before the remaining NATO allies join the fighting in East Germany. This along with possible missile attacks against north European ports would have ensured that Denmark, Norway and Netherlands remained NATO members. Oddly though it is possible that Belgian or perhaps even French forces went into Norway as part of ACE Mobile Force. I have a write up somewhere with my ideas about that and will look for it.

As for Poland...there is no way in hell that even the most hawkish leaders of Britain, Canada and the US agree to shift the Polish borders eastward. The only plausible explanation beyond an over eager German commander completely ignoring stop orders...Germany and Poland made a secret deal where Germany got Stettin while post-war would support a transfer of the Kaliningrad Oblast to Poland during peace negotiations. If agents within the new German government slip this to the Soviets it would be more provocative than the old Zimmerman Telegram. It’s possible this combined with desperation may have triggered the use of tactical nukes with any German troops on Soviet soil.

Benjamin

The four Allied powers of the Second World War (Britain, France, USA, USSR) occupied Berlin as directed under the Potsdam Agreement of 1945, and even after the creation of West and Germany the four allied powers remained the ultimate political authority in both East and West Berlin until the reunification of Germany in 1990. In the T2K timeline this remained the situation until the end of 1997 after NATO forces occupy Berlin and drive the Soviets and remnant NVA out of the city.

When West German forces cross the Inter-German border in October 1996 the French left NATO and pulled their forces out of West Germany. Berlin is a separate case because both the West and East German governments has no recognised legal authority in Berlin, as the Potsdam Agreement gave each of the Allied powers ultimate legal responsibility over their own sector in Berlin. Later the Soviet's tried to give East Germany some legal powers in East Berlin and even allowed them to make East Berlin their capital. Britain, France and America never officially recognised East German authority in East Berlin and would officially only deal with the Soviets. East German military forces were not allowed into East Berlin, but the Soviets did allow them to enter the city for propaganda purposes during parades etc to annoy the Western Allies.

From October to December 1996 Berlin is basically a no fire zone. West German forces will not attack US, British, French and Soviet forces in Berlin or any of their aircraft along the air corridors out of Berlin for fear of reprisals. However once other NATO powers joins the Germans and cross into East Germany in December 1996 the French are placed in a very awkward position. They are now the only Allied power (of the WW2 Allies) that are neutral in the conflict and French forces in West Berlin are cut off.

From a military position French forces in West Berlin have no hope of support or relief. Politically once they leave Berlin the French are relinquishing their legal authority over their sector. But with NATO advancing on Berlin and the Soviets and loyalist NVA set to heavily resist the French situation in Berlin is now a lost cause. The Soviets will allow them to leave as they are no longer in NATO, but although its easy to air lift French personnel and some light vehicles from Berlin how do you transport tanks with the C-160 Transall? The C-160 is smaller than a C-130 and that's all the French Air Force used at this time? The USAF is not going to lend their C-5 Galaxy to the French and fly them into a hot zone like Berlin, and no commercial cargo operator is going to allow their Boeing 747F cargo planes either. What happens to the French sector once they leave is open to speculation. The American and British garrisons have their hands full in their own sectors and are cut off from other NATO forces until the end of December.


About the Polish border and the occupation of former German territory by German troops. Well I think I'm the only one pushing this so if you don't think it could happen that's absolutely fine with me.

However in T2K the German militaries united their country right under the noses of their own governments and their NATO and Warsaw Pact allies. They fought the Soviets in East Germany for two months on their own, and then sent their forces into Austria in the summer of 1997 after the Italians and Czechs attacked Austria and Bavaria. What is left of the Austrian Army has now largely been integrated into the German Army and the Germans are occupying large parts of Poland.

I would have the German land grab happening post-2000 and after Operation Omega. Who is going to stop the Germans from incorporating parts of Poland back into Germany?

The Poles?!!!?

The Soviets won't like it but they have used nuclear weapons against Germany and all of her allies so the Germans wont give a fig what the Soviets think. Also the Soviets are not going to use what's left of their nuclear arsenal in Poland as the official Polish government (what's left of it) is still an ally. The Soviet Army is also shot to pieces and in no state to take on the Germans in Western Poland. The commanders of Soviet divisions still in Poland would probably not even obey their orders.

The Americans are in the same position plus their government has split into two factions. CivGov might object but they have no power in Europe. The Germans are an ally of MilGov so no comment here. The British are in much the same position and will probably do the same as MilGov.

The French might object but they are occupying the German Rhineland so you can imagine what the Germans will tell the French to go and do with themselves

.

[Olefin]

I would think that the French would do one of two things with their heavy equipment - either try to get both sides to declare a very short ceasefire - especially by telling the Soviets that it is part of the price of France staying neutral - and using it to evacuate their men and their heavy equipment out to West Germany and then home. Or alternatively turning over that equipment to the US or UK in exchange for compensation of some sort and the US or UK being made to clearly mark it with their designations

About the only other thing they could do is destroy it in place - i.e. since you wont let us take it and we dont want to be seen as aiding either side we will blow it up, burn it, etc. so its not useful

[Raellus]

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

@Olefin: Any French evacuation of their Berlin enclave is going to be incredibly difficult in the midst of a modern shooting war. I can't think of any recent precedent for such an evacuation, really. Will NATO and the WTO consent to a cease fire in order to allow the French to withdraw? Perhaps, but since doing so would open a corridor from Berlin to the west, such a cease fire could benefit NATO much more than the WTO, so I don't see the Soviets agreeing.

I think a more likely outcome is one side or the other "impounding" the French forces in Berlin with the understanding that they would be repatriated as soon as possible. The French wouldn't really be in a position to demur. I suppose they could fight back, but it would be futile. Would the French government order a last stand, or agree to the arrangement? I tend to conclude the latter.

If NATO does the impounding, it insults French pride and gives France yet another reason to turn on the alliance. If the Soviets do it, it creates a pretty cool adventure/campaign scenario, giving French PCs a "Going Home" scenario of their own. Either way, it opens the door for some French military vehicles showing up in the service of NATO and/or the WTO in eastern Germany/Poland for years to come.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

@Olefin: Any French evacuation of their Berlin enclave is going to be incredibly difficult in the midst of a modern shooting war. I can't think of any recent precedent for such an evacuation, really. Will NATO and the WTO consent to a cease fire in order to allow the French to withdraw? Perhaps, but since doing so would open a corridor from Berlin to the west, such a cease fire could benefit NATO much more than the WTO, so I don't see the Soviets agreeing.

I think a more likely outcome is one side or the other "impounding" the French forces in Berlin with the understanding that they would be repatriated as soon as possible. The French wouldn't really be in a position to demur. I suppose they could fight back, but it would be futile. Would the French government order a last stand, or agree to the arrangement? I tend to conclude the latter.

If NATO does the impounding, it insults French pride and gives France yet another reason to turn on the alliance. If the Soviets do it, it creates a pretty cool adventure/campaign scenario, giving French PCs a "Going Home" scenario of their own. Either way, it opens the door for some French military vehicles showing up in the service of NATO and/or the WTO in eastern Germany/Poland for years to come.

I think the impounding is much more likely as well - and possibly some French soldiers joining up with their NATO allies - always said there should be some Belgians and French who either defected over to NATO or said screw this and joined up with NATO and fought against the Soviets.

[Raellus]

Agreed. This is also a good premise for those who wish to play pro-NATO/anti-Soviet French or Belgian PCs in conventional European-based T2K campaigns.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Agreed. This is also a good premise for those who wish to play pro-NATO/anti-Soviet French or Belgian PCs in conventional European-based T2K campaigns.

Likewise, folks who want to play Italian Alpini or (limited other) troops could, beyond the "defector" premise, could use members of the Allied Command Europe Mobile Force (AMF-L), a multinational brigade-sized force that was in Norway in 1996 and included an Italian alpini battalion and a battery of 105mm mountain guns. Its quite possible that those units, or soldiers assigned to them, decided to ignore the recall order when Italy left NATO, especially when viewed in light of Italian domestic politics. It is possible that there was a change in government, precipitated by the war, that saw the communists take over, or at least have a role as kingmaker and demand Italian withdrawal from the war and NATO. Anti-communist officers could decide to remain at the front alongside their NATO allies fighting Soviet troops. They could end up in Germany post-1997 by tagging along with the US 6th ID, which relocated there following the failure of the Kola offensive.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

@RN7: I don't see the Germans occupying parts of Poland when the French occupy part of Germany. From 2000, it makes more sense for the Germans to ally with the Free Polish Congress so as to guard Germany's eastern border, whilst turning the remains of the Bundeswehr, now bolstered with a significant number of American AFVs (abandoned post-OMEGA), against the French in attempt to liberate the Rhineland.

Germany wouldn't have the strength to take on both the Poles (and Soviet forces still stuck in Poland) and the French simultaneously.

Trying to annex Prussia (again) means ceding the Rhineland to France and I don't see that as very likely.

But the whole of T2K game is unlikely, and even more so the outcome in 2300AD if you like to follow that future history.

Mexico taking the whole US South-West and keeping it is the biggest, but there are nationalist/ethnic conflicts and historical land grabs going on everywhere.

The Soviets invading China and occupying Manchuria. The West Germans unifying (invading) East Germany. Italy invading Austria. France invading Germany and the Netherlands (remember Napoleon). Quebec in Canada supported by the French. The Republic of Ireland in invading Northern Ireland. Scottish and Welsh nationalist uprisings in Britain. In 2000 the Soviet states and army units are starting to break up along ethnic lines.

The Germans actually have some historical claim to much of modern Poland and more. In 1945 Alsace-Lorraine was transferred back to France, Malmedy to Belgium and the Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia. The German border with Poland was shifted west to the Oder-Neisse Line, with Silesia and most of Pomerania transferred to Poland and East Prussia divided between Poland and Russia. That is about 100 years shorter than the last Mexican-American War and the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo.

Until 1970 the West German government which was very democratic and very liberal adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine, which refused to recognise the legitimacy of the German Democratic Republic or have any diplomatic relations with any other country who did excluding the USSR because they had to. West Germany also refused to recognise the legitimacy of the Oder-Neisse line and the loss of German territories under the terms of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The nationalist West German military officers who plotted German unification with their East German counterparts right under the noses of their own governments, both Superpowers and all the other members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact are far from democratic and liberal.

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by RN7

But the whole of T2K game is unlikely, and even more so the outcome in 2300AD if you like to follow that future history.

Mexico taking the whole US South-West and keeping it is the biggest, but there are nationalist/ethnic conflicts and historical land grabs going on everywhere.

The Soviets invading China and occupying Manchuria. The West Germans unifying (invading) East Germany. Italy invading Austria. France invading Germany and the Netherlands (remember Napoleon). Quebec in Canada supported by the French. The Republic of Ireland in invading Northern Ireland. Scottish and Welsh nationalist uprisings in Britain. In 2000 the Soviet states and army units are starting to break up along ethnic lines.

The Germans actually have some historical claim to much of modern Poland and more. In 1945 Alsace-Lorraine was transferred back to France, Malmedy to Belgium and the Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia. The German border with Poland was shifted west to the Oder-Neisse Line, with Silesia and most of Pomerania transferred to Poland and East Prussia divided between Poland and Russia. That is about 100 years shorter than the last Mexican-American War and the Treaty of Guadalupe-Hidalgo.

Until 1970 the West German government which was very democratic and very liberal adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine, which refused to recognise the legitimacy of the German Democratic Republic or have any diplomatic relations with any other country who did excluding the USSR because they had to. West Germany also refused to recognise the legitimacy of the Oder-Neisse line and the loss of German territories under the terms of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. The nationalist West German military officers who plotted German unification with their East German counterparts right under the noses of their own governments, both Superpowers and all the other members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact are far from democratic and liberal.

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

FYI I never agreed with Mexico keeping as much of the Southwest and Texas as they did either - for a big reason that much of what they took is dependent on water coming from the north in areas under US control - so any chance of them holding CA north of San Diego and the Imperial Valley is a zero chance - not unless they can build massive desalinization plants or have gas to ship millions of gallons of water northward.

And I agree with you about the Germans - especially the area taken from Germany between Poland and the current German border - basically there is nothing left to stop the Germans from taking that area and holding it - especially after the US Army gives up that amount of armor, ammo, etc. to the Germans.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by RN7

If you think the German Army is not strong enough to hold some territory in Poland look at the size of it. Post Omega it is by far the biggest component of NATO in Western and Central Europe and that's just looking GDW's orbat in Going Home which omitted a lot of units which would or likely still exist as well as Austrian units. The French have not moved east of the Rhine since 1998, and are having trouble with German and Dutch patriots/terrorists west of the Rhine. Poland is a divided political and military mess. Even a unified Polish army would have no hope against the Germans. Most Soviets Army units in Poland and most of Europe beyond the Soviet borders (and even within) are not even obeying orders from what is left of the Soviet high command. Unlike many other armies in Europe the Germans have an intact command structure and its forces are fully under its control.

If you think that the remains of the Bundeswehr would have the strength c.2001 to fight a two-front war (v. France in the west, and v. Polish & Soviet forces in the east), then roll with that. I respectfully disagree. I think your assessment of comparative strengths is off by a pretty wide margin. I don't know if it's still viewable, but if so, please take a look at the Winter 2000-2001 unit map of Europe that I created, based on Going Home.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=4781

Even discounting Soviet units that fall into the following categories:

* loyal, but unwilling to take offensive action
** no longer accepting orders from Pact
*** no longer accepting orders from higher headquarters
**** loyal to the Polish Free Congress
***** Ceased to exist as coherent unit

... there are still a lot of foreign military units that would stand in the way of German offensive action into western Poland. By a quick count, there are 17 German divisions and 24 Soviet. If you throw in pro-Communist Polish and Czech divisions, the disparity is even greater. I reckon that, at the very least, PFC units would not cooperate with German territorial grabs in the east. In fact, I tend to think that they would actively resist said, adding more opposing divisions to the equation.

Keep in mind that this map does not show French-Belgian-Dutch forces occupying German territory. And I discounting the active assistance of American and British units left behind post-OMEGA. IIRC, the Brits are trying to go home themselves, and I can't think of a compelling reason that the Americans would help the Germans forcefully annex Polish territory.

And we haven't even touched on internal security issues within German-controlled territory. Of the top of my head, I recall several mentions in Going Home of marauder units (German and American), petty warlords, and such operating on German soil. The German military is going to have its hands for several months or maybe even years simply trying to pacify and reestablish central gov't control of its own territory.

If you still think that Germany could/would re-invade western Poland whilst either ceding pre-war territory to France and/or fighting the French in the west, then good for you. I don't begrudge your opposing views, nor should you care if I did. The beauty of the T2KU is that it is what the individual GM wants to make it.

[Olefin]

Sorry should have been clearer - what I was talking about was the Germans basically accepting the French takeover of their territory and fighting a one front war to get back the lands in the East, accepting that there is no way they can fight and win a war against France to get back the Rhineland - especially given a France that still has nukes and air power (which Germany lacks in both aspects)

and the US and Canadian cut off units would be part of that effort - you help us get back our land and we get you home in a second convoy (eventually) or get you back to Bremerhaven where at least you can get picked up and sent to the Middle East where the remaining US forces are still very active indeed (and where the arrival of the 2nd Marine Division would be a very welcome addition indeed)

a Germany crazy enough to try a two front war in their current condition is not something I am advocating in any way

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

If you think that the remains of the Bundeswehr would have the strength c.2001 to fight a two-front war (v. France in the west, and v. Polish & Soviet forces in the east), then roll with that. I respectfully disagree. I think your assessment of comparative strengths is off by a pretty wide margin. I don't know if it's still viewable, but if so, please take a look at the Winter 2000-2001 unit map of Europe that I created, based on Going Home.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=4781

Even discounting Soviet units that fall into the following categories:

* loyal, but unwilling to take offensive action
** no longer accepting orders from Pact
*** no longer accepting orders from higher headquarters
**** loyal to the Polish Free Congress
***** Ceased to exist as coherent unit

... there are still a lot of foreign military units that would stand in the way of German offensive action into western Poland. By a quick count, there are 17 German divisions and 24 Soviet. If you throw in pro-Communist Polish and Czech divisions, the disparity is even greater. I reckon that, at the very least, PFC units would not cooperate with German territorial grabs in the east. In fact, I tend to think that they would actively resist said, adding more opposing divisions to the equation.

Keep in mind that this map does not show French-Belgian-Dutch forces occupying German territory. And I discounting the active assistance of American and British units left behind post-OMEGA. IIRC, the Brits are trying to go home themselves, and I can't think of a compelling reason that the Americans would help the Germans forcefully annex Polish territory.

And we haven't even touched on internal security issues within German-controlled territory. Of the top of my head, I recall several mentions in Going Home of marauder units (German and American), petty warlords, and such operating on German soil. The German military is going to have its hands for several months or maybe even years simply trying to pacify and reestablish central gov't control of its own territory.

If you still think that Germany could/would re-invade western Poland whilst either ceding pre-war territory to France and/or fighting the French in the west, then good for you. I don't begrudge your opposing views, nor should you care if I did. The beauty of the T2KU is that it is what the individual GM wants to make it.

This not a case of the Germans invading Poland as they are already in Poland, and they are in Northern Poland were the German action is.

From NATO Vehicle Guide 1 and NATO Combat Vehicle Handbook 2 for German divisions in 2000

29th Panzer Division (3,000 troops, 24 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
6th Panzergrenadier Division (2,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Northern Poland
21st Panzergrenadier Division (1,600 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Northern Poland


Also in East Germany.

27th Panzer Division (5,000 troops, 12 Leopard 2): Beeskow, East Germany
2nd Panzergrenadier Division (6,000 troops, 5 Leopard 2): Leipzig, East Germany
4th Panzergrenadier Division (3,000 troops, 14 Leopard 2): Plauen, East Germany
28th Panzergrenadier Division (1,500 troops, 10 Leopard 2): Zwickau, East Germany
211th Panzergrenadier Division (5,000 troops, 6 Leopard 2): Altenburg, East Germany


Also from NATO Vehicle Guide 1 all independent battalions and regiments units assigned to III German Corps, most of VI German Corps, and half of II German Corps in East Germany and Northern Poland


And from Going Home

Ex-Soviet 94th Cavalry Division (800 troops): Beeskow, East Germany

And GDW did miss a lot of German units which are likely to exist in T2K