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#1
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So Putin invaded the Ukraine today and we did nothing, but now... China has jets invading Taiwan's airspace. We have a treaty with them and they do make like 95% of the World's computer chips.
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#2
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My fellow Americans...
PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too! whoohoo! |
#3
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It'll go well with the spam cans of Ukrainian surplus 5.45 that I bought when they were under a hundred bucks each. I'll bet they'd like 'em back now. :/
- C.
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Clayton A. Oliver • Occasional RPG Freelancer Since 1996 Author of The Pacific Northwest, coauthor of Tara Romaneasca, creator of several other free Twilight: 2000 and Twilight: 2013 resources, and curator of an intermittent gaming blog. It rarely takes more than a page to recognize that you're in the presence of someone who can write, but it only takes a sentence to know you're dealing with someone who can't. - Josh Olson |
#4
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Twenty years and several motorcycle accidents ago I would still have been keen. Sadly this Aussie's most useful combat role these days would be as a sand bag.
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#5
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It's sad to see speculation from months and even years ago becoming present-day reality.
I really hope that China does not conclude from the way that Russia's Ukraine invasion is going down (and NATO's response, so far) that it is time to "liberate" Taiwan. The Wall Street Journal claims that Russia and China "now hold a stronger hand in confronting the West than during the Cold War". https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...yUI_WTVxjrT8eM -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#6
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There is one You-Tuber I enjoy, Sergei of the Ushanka Show about him growing up in the USSR. He's Ukrainian and thought that Putin would back down. I just knew Putin was going to do it, maybe it is my pessimistic side, knowledge of history or just gut feeling but this time I hate being correct.
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Slave to 1 cat. |
#7
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This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCbW1hc6Ng -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#8
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So now Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. Three days into the conflict and Russia is already threatening nuclear war... over the West rendering aid to Ukraine. The standing consensus among both NATO and the hobbyists who were following the news feeds is that Russia can sustain this tempo of operations for 7 days. IF the fight stretches out to 10 days, the Russians will lose the initiative due to a lack of fuel and ammo.
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#9
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It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#10
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I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he could be removed by the Russian security services or the military. Personal loyalty only goes so far, particularly if the mood of the Russian populace continues to turn against the current course of action.
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#11
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I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.
I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff. For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models). This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part. |
#12
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#14
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Interesting article
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...epends/362505/ |
#15
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Also, I'd not exactly call Putin old guard KGB, he's basically the last generation of career officers, who made it into a professional career while the USSR still existed. He was never as reliable as the old school leaders of the KGB or USSR used to be. He seems to have self-radicalized during the pandemic, too, so what we're missing from him is reliability and trustworthiness, which existed between top-level officials during the 1970s and 1980s. Quote:
However, neither the 250 M1 Abrams nor airplanes will be available for Poland immediately, let alone integrated into the armed force. The same can be said for Bulgaria, who was a mentioned second candidate for a fighter swap scheme with Ukraine. However, everything not immediately available to Ukraine and accessible without long transition and training periods, won't help Ukrainians win the war. This war is entering a new phase today, as Russia is shelling Kharkiv heavily - one might speak of an early 'Grosny' treatment - and approaching Kiev with a 40 km long column of mechanized forces including logistical elements. The battle for Kyiv will decide the next phase of the war and might decide the whole war indeed, since Russia could install a puppet regime in conquered Kyiv and keep pushing into the rest of Ukraine after that. Should Ukrainian forces loose their C³ facilities and or political leadership sitting in Kyiv, this would be a huge blow to the country's fight to remain independent and sovereign. That being said, I do not see a way, where this war can be won by Ukraine without considerably more aid by Western nations, including direct support by NATO and/or EU troops. This would up the ante, however, as Russian troops could, and indeed likely would, be fired upon by Western troops and vice versa. As everyone can imagine, this could spill over into Belarus and later NATO partners, such as Poland, the Baltic nations, Romania as well as others, too.
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Liber et infractus |
#16
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Poland, Belarus, and Slovakia are waiting for Ukrainian pilots to pick up 70 fighter planes, and since those countries still have stocks of Russian-made planes, they should be able to go into action without a ton of training needed.
By this morning, those planes may already be in Ukraine. |
#17
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ts-dont-add-up Hopefully, it's just the number (70) that is incorrect, not the entire story, and Ukraine still ends up getting some replacement combat aircraft from its former Pact neighbors. Viva the Ghost of Kiev! -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#18
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I meant Bulgaria, not Belarus.
I read a seperate report that Slovakian pilots have cross-trained on F16's so they have 20-odd Mig-29's they are not using. Recently, U.S. defense officials reported that Russia does not have air superiority over Ukraine, which suggests they are holding back, or have suffered outsized losses. In any case, there is little time to waste, because a no-fly zone is a non-starter. |
#19
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Again, I wish it were otherwise, but it looks like all that talk about rearming the Ukrainian air force was just that- talk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-for-some-time ![]() -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
#20
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#21
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The other deal (which may yet go through) has Poland giving Ukraine 24 MIG 29s and we immediately transfer 24 F15 Strike Eagles to Poland (from the UK) to complement her F35s. The F15 Strike Eagle is NOT obsolete and the US still spends more than 100 million per plane to buy newer Strike Eagles even now. They are important to the new "distributed lethality" concept that the Navy introduced and the Air Force seems to have adopted as well. The F35 flies ahead with 2 AA missiles (for self-defense), 2 anti-radar missiles, and 2 air-to-ground missiles (or 4 if Hellfires are carried instead of Mavericks) on board. It then acts as a scout/spotter for the F15s (which carry 12 missiles each) who act as "missile trucks," firing their missiles which are then directed to the target by the F35. This high-low system is the Air Force's new doctrine. The idea for giving the indicated systems to Ukraine is that they won't need to be trained on those systems because they already use them. The US would then bring in the new systems to the NATO members as "payment" for their sacrifice of equipment while simultaneously upgrading their capabilities so we don't have to keep our troops in harm's way. I disagree with your assessment of Ukraine's chances because she currently has more than 240K people "under arms." That's quantitatively a match for Russia's (mostly conscripted) forces... especially IF this turns into an Insurgency. Putin cannot simply burn Kyiv to the ground as he did with Grozny in 2000. That will only harden the Ukrainian's hearts and turn the West farther against him. What Ukraine NEEDS is arms, ammo, and food... which is flowing in now. I still believe if the Ukrainians can hold on for 10 days, they can really hurt Putin's chances of victory. And I'm basing that on OUR (the US Army's) logistics consumption on the offensive. The Russians have a smaller "logistics tail" than we do and are using far more rockets and artillery than we would. Contrary to popular opinion, morale and logistics win wars [at the strategic level], not just firepower. |
#22
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#23
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#24
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Is anyone else surprised by how poor the Russian troops have performed? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that they are doing badly, but I thought that even without their heavy artillery they would make quicker progress than they have. Has the average Russian infantryman been proved to not be as capable as we expected them to be?
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#25
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Oh we left our engines running overnight to keep warm. Hmmm fork in a road and we aren't sure without signs. Let's go towards the sunrise (East) as that is a good marker. I'll just nudge that to be a bit short of the target. If anyone asks I thought we had a tail wind. |
#26
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The Russian advance was about as far a an AFV like those could go on a single tank of gas while fighting... so a "tactical pause" was inevitable for logistics reasons. The real issue is the ambushing of supply convoys as Russian logistics is simply not as efficient as Western logistics. |
#27
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IF you are planning an occupation for "peacekeeping" reasons, looting is a bad idea. It makes the locals hate you even more.
https://youtu.be/OoM5yx1IVFY |
#28
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#29
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THIS IS MY SIG, HERE IT IS. |
#30
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I am not saying everyone but if 10% are lackadaisical or outright disruptive, it hurts the plan. |
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