China in October 1996

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I wonder if the thousands of E. German POWs getting nuked in such a cavalier fashion didn't help foment the mutinies in the WarPac.

[Jason Weiser]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

I wonder if the thousands of E. German POWs getting nuked in such a cavalier fashion didn't help foment the mutinies in the WarPac.

The first nuclear use in China according to the Twilight 2000 timeline on Wikia is in July 1997. This is after the events of May-June 1996, where the Spring Offensive occurs, and October 1996, when German reunification occurs at the end of a rifle.

I am going to make the following assumptions on that score:

a) Those POWs have long since been repatriated. Either to West Germany before the war to take advantage of the near-certain unrest in the East, or to a united Germany once war breaks out in Europe.

b) From all accounts that I can glean from, the East Germans sound to me like they were left to fight a rear guard to extricate the Soviets from a Red Willow-style encirclement. I assume they were instead, encircled themselves and forced to capitulate. This will not play well back home at all.

c) What happens between June 1996 and July 1997? That is 11 months we cannot account for. Do the Soviets allow a stalemate to set in, rightly believing that the decisive theatre is now the West? Do the Chinese build up for their own offensive, that fatefully kicks off in the Summer of 1997, and so overwhelm the remaining Soviet units that the Soviets "hold the trigger down and empty the magazine" with regards to the nuclear option in China, as we see the Soviets basically practicing wholesale genocide with regards to their use of nuclear weapons (Not that using nukes in any format is easy on the surrounding life forms).

In short, that 11 month period is really in my mind, the key. This to me, is when the war reaches it's zenith of violence, both in Asia and Europe..before that, it's a regional conflict, after, it's a slow slide to barbarism.

But, YMMV.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

From all accounts that I can glean from, the East Germans sound to me like they were left to fight a rear guard to extricate the Soviets from a Red Willow-style encirclement. I assume they were instead, encircled themselves and forced to capitulate. This will not play well back home at all.

This to me has always been the trigger that started German Reunification. Before this event the East Germans were already uneasy with the direction that Soviet foreign policy was heading and the increasing political and social restrictions over Soviet allies (satellites). Both German militaries obviously discussed and made some contingency plans before the decimation of the two East German divisions in China, but the event and the clear implication that the Soviets were using and planning to use more German troops as cannon fodder in its war in the Far East led to an acceleration of reunification planning in the East and West German militaries.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Edit - nvm., saw Jason's post regarding the timeline of events.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

The trouble is, the Chinese AF just aren't able to keep up with the Soviets..at first. The elements of the AF that are learning to use the new Western kit are still in the US and elsewhere, learning how to use it. What's left is in the same position the Soviet AF was in in '41-'42, being tackling dummies for the other side. The Soviets also take down the Chinese AD network with frightening ease, blowing large holes in it for raids of Bears, Backfires, Badgers and Fencers to range throughout China. And most of the raids are at night..which means the Chinese are at a further disadvantage.

A fair point, but I was specifically referencing armor production. Given western aid, specifically fighter jets and SAMS, I think that the Chinese could protect their relocated AFV factories enough that they could start rebuilding their own armored/mechanized forces almost exclusively with domestic production. I don't think that the Chinese would be capable of rebuilding an effective, home-grown AF after their initial losses. I totally agree that an influx of western aircraft, some piloted by westerners, is what allowed relocated Chinese tank factories to continue cranking out cheap-ass T-55 knock-offs. I just think that it would be easier for the U.S.A. to dust off some of the old Phantoms and A-4s and the like stored in S. Arizona, and crank out a few factory-fresh F-5s and F-20s, and ship those to China, than to produce and ship enough American-made tanks to rebuild the PLA's smashed armor forces. Sure, they'd throw in a few Stingrays, and M48s, and LAV-75s, but that would just be icing on the cake. The biggest western contribution- in my T2KU, at least- was aircraft, SAMs, and ATGMs. IMO, it's about conservation of effort and economies of scale. Those western planes and American-made ATGMs are what allowed the Chinese to hold on. That, and their massive manpower reserves and well-established partisan system, of course.

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

b) From all accounts that I can glean from, the East Germans sound to me like they were left to fight a rear guard to extricate the Soviets from a Red Willow-style encirclement. I assume they were instead, encircled themselves and forced to capitulate. This will not play well back home at all.

Someday, I'd like to run a T2K campaign based around a group of NVA soldiers, c. 7/97, who say "f*#$ it!" and head for home after being placed in a hopeless rearguard position by their Soviet masters. How do you say, "good luck, you're on your own" in Russian? Considering the distances involved, and the intervening obstacles, both natural and man-made, such a campaign could be epic- a modern Homeric odyssey, if you will. I'm going to call it, "T2K: The Long March". My fellow history buffs will get it.

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

c) What happens between June 1996 and July 1997? That is 11 months we cannot account for. Do the Soviets allow a stalemate to set in, rightly believing that the decisive theatre is now the West? Do the Chinese build up for their own offensive, that fatefully kicks off in the Summer of 1997, and so overwhelm the remaining Soviet units that the Soviets "hold the trigger down and empty the magazine" with regards to the nuclear option in China, as we see the Soviets basically practicing wholesale genocide with regards to their use of nuclear weapons (Not that using nukes in any format is easy on the surrounding life forms).

I think that's about right, Jason. This is what canon has to say about the situation in the Far East in the Summer of 1997, starting with the strategic situation in Europe:

"By early July, NATO advanced elements were closing up on the Polish-Soviet frontier in the central region, while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw." (Twilight 2000 Referee's Manual, p. 25)

Then, after a blurb about the Polish government-in-exile, canon goes on to say,

"In the Far East, Pact forces began major withdrawals all along the front, and the mobile elements of the Chinese Army began a victorious pursuit." (p. 25)

On July 9th, with NATO forces closing in on Soviet soil, the Soviets start using tac-nukes. The canon continues with,

"In the East, however, they were used on a massive scale. Chinese mechanized columns were vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit". (p. 25)

I think, in 13 months between June '96 and July '97, that both China and the USSR were rebuilding and re-martialing their forces in the Far East. This would have been more difficult for the Soviets because, by then, they were fighting a two-front war. The Soviets were probably trying to manage the overall situation, holding on to as much strategically-significant ground in Manchuria as they coould whilst shifting whatever forces they could spare from the Far East back to central Europe. In the meantime, the Chinese were rebuilding their "mobile units" for a massive summer offensive against the PACT occupiers. It sounds like they hit the Soviets just as the Soviets commenced a general retreat. But, instead of chasing the Red Army back across the border, those new, rebuilt "mechanized columns" were annihilated by Soviet tac-nukes.

[Jason Weiser]

Rae,
Try worse for our East Germans...assuming they survived the 1996 Spring Offensive, where so many of their brethren wound up dead or in the bag, then add in the fact that the East Germany they fought for..no longer exists, and the Soviets either:

1) Forcibly disarmed them and turned them into forced labor/POWs (or both).

2) Allowed them to be reformed into a brigade sized unit and sent to go the most dangerous tasks..with a permanently attached KGB unit there to make sure "these Germans remain loyal."

Comments?

[simonmark6]

Then you'd have Kampfengruppe Falken only on teh other side. I like the idea, really like it.

For those of you not brought up in the 70s and 80s in the UK, that's totally obscure, I'll try and find a link.

Here we are:

http://britishcomicart.blogspot.co.u...pe-falken.html

I think this comic strip and the flying version: Iron Annie made me ready for T2K even before it existed. The almost nihilistic view of war where you brass was worse than the enemy and victory meant living to face certain death once more has a major vibe of the game.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

Rae,
Try worse for our East Germans...assuming they survived the 1996 Spring Offensive, where so many of their brethren wound up dead or in the bag, then add in the fact that the East Germany they fought for..no longer exists, and the Soviets either:

1) Forcibly disarmed them and turned them into forced labor/POWs (or both).

2) Allowed them to be reformed into a brigade sized unit and sent to go the most dangerous tasks..with a permanently attached KGB unit there to make sure "these Germans remain loyal."

Comments?

I'm leaning towards something more like the latter.

Among PACT troops in the Far East, I think that the Soviets would have done everything in their power to censor news of developments in Germany. This probably would have entailed attaching more Soviet minders. I see them pretending it never happened and continuing to employ whatever NVA troops were still in theater. News would leak through eventually, possibly coming from PLA propaganda units, but the Soviets would deny any claims of German reunification and persecute those in their ranks caught spreading them.

In the summer of '97, the Soviet Far East command would callously use the fragments of the last NVA units in the theater as a speed bump to slow any Chinese pursuit during the PACT general withdrawal.

It would probably be at this point when I'd start the campaign.