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Old 01-16-2019, 09:33 AM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Default horse population in 2000

Found this online which gives the numbers of horses throughout the world and breaks it down by general area including number of horses and number of horses as a proportion to the general population - the 2000 numbers would be very applicable to the original game whereas the 2008 numbers are more for the 2013 game

In 2008, there are 58.7 million horses in the world, South America dominating (15 millions) followed by Asia (13.8 millions), North America (9.8 millions), Latin America and Caribbean (8.7 millions), Europe (6.3 millions), Africa (4.5 millions) and Oceania (0.41million).

http://www.fao.org/tempref/AG/Reserv...dka_Thesis.pdf
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Old 01-16-2019, 04:51 PM
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...the 2000 numbers would be very applicable to the original game...
ONLY in those few areas not impacted by the war. Most of Europe (excluding perhaps France), much of the US, USSR and China would be decimated with horses (and other animals) likely having suffered even even more than humans. Disease would have ripped through herds, radiation killed, many, many more (they can't take shelter from fallout anywhere near as easily as humans), and famine/lack of fodder not just starves them, but turns them into a very attractive food source.

Then we add in those killed in the actual war zones, and horses are very likely to be in very short supply.

Even well away from war zones horse populations would take a hit - no fuel prevents large scale fodder production and transport, medicines become scarce or not available at all, etc.

Yes, some breeding would continue, but to be successful you need a fairly decent supply of food, and you won't have a (barely) usable horse anyway for about 3 years (gestation alone is 11 months, plus time for them to mature, then training).

So even if large scale breeding was begun at around the same time as strategic nukes were used (latter months of 1997), you're only just starting to see a result at the time the game is set. Given it takes time for the need to be recognised, I'd be inclined to add at least six more months to that, probably even more for the northern hemisphere as you really don't want new foals born while there's snow on the ground.
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Old 01-16-2019, 05:14 PM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Oh I am not saying that horse populations wouldnt be affected - but the data does show you how many horses there are, where they are distributed and what would be available for cavalry and transport

part of what it does show is for the places that didnt get affected that much by the war but are short on fuel - i.e. there you would see horses being transitioned back in as transport animals again - which includes most of South and Central America. Also keep in mind this doesnt include donkeys in the numbers cited which are used for transport in many countries already

Given the numbers you can see that there are sufficient horses to support the cavalry unit sizes we see in the canon even with a large scale reduction in the amount of horses (along with humans) - even if you lose half the horses in North America - i.e. from the 2000 numbers - you are still looking at almost 3 million horses - so could the US by 2000 still have a significant amount of horses for transport/agriculture/armed forces use - the answer is yes - i.e. the horse numbers are simply too big for even a catastrophe on the scale of Howling Wilderness to reduce them to where they are in such short supply that you wouldnt be seeing them pulling plows and wagons and transporting soldiers
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Old 01-16-2019, 05:15 PM
swaghauler swaghauler is offline
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I know that in the early '90s there were around 250,000 wild horses in the US and Mexico. That number has dropped to around 60,000 or 70,000 now.

Unsurprisingly, about 4,000,000 horses are in the hands of the Amish in the US. Most of these would probably survive since they are still used for plowing, logging, construction and as basic transportation. I can imagine the US Military "enlisting" Amish as "drovers" or "cargo handlers" just because they have the horses and wagons to haul large loads. Kind of like the Army going to civilian ranchers out West to help them set up that new School for handling Pack Mules a few years back (Special Forces Pack Handling Course, Ft Bragg) or the Marines opening a course in pack handling at their Mountain Warfare School.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:21 PM
Vespers War Vespers War is offline
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4,000,000 seems surprisingly high for the number of horses owned by the Amish in the United States.

Their population is only around 330,000 and the average household size is 7, so that would imply ~12 horses per person or 85 horses per household. A typical household actually has 7 or 8 horses (usually 6 draft and 1 or 2 light horses for buggy work), which in turn implies roughly 355,000 horses owned by the Amish.
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:42 PM
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4,000,000 seems surprisingly high for the number of horses owned by the Amish in the United States.
I'm guessing there's one or two too many zeros on that figure.
Can't really see the Amish joining the military either, even against their will. Probably better for them to be recruited into positions teaching others how to handle animals and farm without modern machinery and chemicals.
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Old 01-17-2019, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Vespers War View Post
4,000,000 seems surprisingly high for the number of horses owned by the Amish in the United States.

Their population is only around 330,000 and the average household size is 7, so that would imply ~12 horses per person or 85 horses per household. A typical household actually has 7 or 8 horses (usually 6 draft and 1 or 2 light horses for buggy work), which in turn implies roughly 355,000 horses owned by the Amish.
Yes, it should be a total of 400,000 (for 2000, not 2018 too). stupid auto correct causes keystrokes to not register when I type on my smartphone then adds them in as I post my reply (all the ad popups?). I also have trouble calling up a keyboard in tapatalk on occasion. This doesn't happen when I use my laptop though?

The totals now (2018) are over 1.1 million horses but I guess that's not unusual considering the explosive population growth in the Amish community since 2000. They have almost doubled in number during the last 20 years.

The Army wouldn't "recruit" Amish drovers, they'd hire them. This would be just like the truckers and construction workers the DOD hired to work in Iraq and Kuwait during the War on Terror. Hell, I've hauled military equipment as a trucker here in the US.
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:30 AM
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The Army wouldn't "recruit" Amish drovers, they'd hire them. This would be just like the truckers and construction workers the DOD hired to work in Iraq and Kuwait during the War on Terror. Hell, I've hauled military equipment as a trucker here in the US.
Why would they go? Aren't the Amish fairly insular and anti just about anything to do with the modern world?
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:16 PM
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Why would they go? Aren't the Amish fairly insular and anti just about anything to do with the modern world?
It would vary by group, but there were Amish communities that participated in Civilian Public Service during World War II. It certainly wouldn't be fast transportation (no more than 10 miles per hour and 25 miles per day based on recorded Amish travel patterns), but it would be better than hand-porting.
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:07 AM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Actually the Amish interact all the time with the society around them as far as trade - in my area of PA you see them on their buggies going back and forth to the local businesses - heck the Walmart at Shippensburg has an area in the parking lot specifically dedicated where they can tie up their horses and buggies - you see them in the store constantly
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:18 AM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Anyone who wants info on the Amish please contact me - I have lived in PA and Ohio which are the two biggest concentrations of the Amish in the US. In the town I live in they have regular auctions for horses where the Amish come to buy. The Amish would be a big resource for rebuilding in both states and a ready source of blacksmiths, carpenters, experts on farming with old techniques, etc..
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Old 01-21-2019, 05:43 PM
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Ok, they interact, but how about their views on war?
Lets go straight to the source shall we? https://amishamerica.com/why-dont-am...-the-military/
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Old 01-21-2019, 07:02 PM
Vespers War Vespers War is offline
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Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
Anyone who wants info on the Amish please contact me - I have lived in PA and Ohio which are the two biggest concentrations of the Amish in the US. In the town I live in they have regular auctions for horses where the Amish come to buy. The Amish would be a big resource for rebuilding in both states and a ready source of blacksmiths, carpenters, experts on farming with old techniques, etc..
As a "yes, but...", I seem to recall that Allegheny Uprising has most of the Amish in PA being killed as those areas are overrun by bandits and warlords.
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Old 01-21-2019, 07:44 PM
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As a "yes, but...", I seem to recall that Allegheny Uprising has most of the Amish in PA being killed as those areas are overrun by bandits and warlords.
Given their whole "non-resistance" stance, I think that's an extremely likely result.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:04 PM
swaghauler swaghauler is offline
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Why would they go? Aren't the Amish fairly insular and anti just about anything to do with the modern world?
No. This is a myth. My Amish neighbors participate in my community just like everyone else. We would turn their fields over in the spring (much easier to do with a tractor) and they would give us eggs, vegetables, and we would ALWAYS buy milk from them. My Amish neighbors taught me how to tan deer hides, render fat, and make home-made ice cream. We would give them rides to town, plow them out in the winter, and otherwise help them out "technologically." This is how the majority of Amish live among the "English."
They did not go to school with us (they had their own schools up to the eighth grade), but they would participate in both the community AND government. It was the race between Trump and Clinton that "weaponized" the Amish politically. The Amish are considered "adults" at 16 years of age. Many Amish in my area worked in lumber and feed mills. The Obama Administration made a ruling against the Amish that forced them to follow US laws regarding minors working in "industrial settings." Hilary Clinton vowed to continue this policy. That left newly graduated "adult" Amish UNABLE to work for TWO YEARS after graduating from school. There was also talk about "reforming" Amish educational practices (forcing them to attend public schools not run by their church). This made the Amish vote Republican in PA during the last election. They turned the tide in PA (a Democratic-leaning state) and President Trump reversed the rulings against them using the Religious Exemption that they had operated under since the birth of our Republic. When motivated to act, they are a force to be respected due to their unity as a group.

Then there are the often overlooked "Amish Brethren," the Mennonites. They go to the same churches BUT drive cars, use technology and live in the modern world. A great many Amish are employed by Mennonites to work in jobs like roofing, lumber mills, and construction. The state of PA also employed a number of Amish, especially in construction but also in animal husbandry and forestry work.

As you can see, the Amish aren't as "detached" from US rural life as the media would have you believe.
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Old 01-23-2019, 09:06 PM
swaghauler swaghauler is offline
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Originally Posted by Olefin View Post
Anyone who wants info on the Amish please contact me - I have lived in PA and Ohio which are the two biggest concentrations of the Amish in the US. In the town, I live in they have regular auctions for horses where the Amish come to buy. The Amish would be a big resource for rebuilding in both states and a ready source of blacksmiths, carpenters, experts on farming with old techniques, etc..
I STILL live next to them right now. In fact, I need to go buy some milk and eggs now that I'm home. I also have a few Mennonite neighbors too.
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