OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[bash]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

https://youtu.be/K6uA6a9jgjs

Biden is simply dragging his feet. We have 600+ F16s in inventory. We can give Poland 28 of them.

Biden did finally ban imports of Russian oil today. We are supposedly being told to expect $7 per gallon by next month since the current administration won't lift their ban on drilling in the national forests.

Having vehicles in inventory and having effective vehicles are not the same thing. Russia is giving the world an object lesson in this concept. If Poland gives Ukraine two dozen Migs and associated spares, compatible weapon systems, and the rest of those planes' support they need the same number of F-16s. They'd also need training for pilots and ground crews for the entirely new planes and weapon systems. Poland giving up planes is basically them taking a combat-ready squadron offline for months if not years. These aren't Hummers.

Oil companies in the US already under utilize their existing leases for drilling on federal land. More leases aren't going to reduce the price at the pump for gasoline. Opening federal land to drilling (or any land) requires the attendant infrastructure to store and move that oil. So even if oil companies got a bunch of new federal drilling leases tomorrow they wouldn't get significant amounts of oil into the market for years.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by bash

Having vehicles in inventory and having effective vehicles are not the same thing. Russia is giving the world an object lesson in this concept. If Poland gives Ukraine two dozen Migs and associated spares, compatible weapon systems, and the rest of those planes' support they need the same number of F-16s. They'd also need training for pilots and ground crews for the entirely new planes and weapon systems. Poland giving up planes is basically them taking a combat-ready squadron offline for months if not years. These aren't Hummers.

Except that Poland has already TRAINED on F16s and F35s and would need to upgrade her fleet anyway because the MIG 29s all exceed half their airframes' service lives. Why not do it now while the doing is good?

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by bash

Oil companies in the US already under utilize their existing leases for drilling on federal land. More leases aren't going to reduce the price at the pump for gasoline. Opening federal land to drilling (or any land) requires the attendant infrastructure to store and move that oil. So even if oil companies got a bunch of new federal drilling leases tomorrow they wouldn't get significant amounts of oil into the market for years.

Except that Biden did ban drilling in the Allegheny National Forest by banning Fracking and doubling lease fees after he promised the unions he wouldn't. Without Fracking, shale oils cannot be exploited. This cut production in the Forest down to 10k barrels a day from 30K + and idled 1200 wells overnight. As a result, 58K PA workers lost their good-paying jobs when this happened and DON'T TELL ME I DON'T KNOW WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT because yours truly was one of them. I used to haul well casings to the rigs in the Forest and now get to haul steel for peanuts compared to oilfield pay. Now, PA power companies are forced to IMPORT natural gas to make electricity because the Forest is no longer supplying it.

[Raellus]

Guys, I really don't want to lock this thread. Please keep it apolitical and on-topic. The thread OP is about the war in Ukraine.

https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=2961

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[Raellus]

This story's been a rollercoaster from the start. The Pentagon has apparently shot down Poland's plan for a third-party transfer of its MiG-29s to Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...29s-to-ukraine

I'm not sure how much good two dozen MiGs would have done the UAF, militarily speaking, but it would have signaled the strength of NATO's support for Ukraine, and likely boosted morale there.

CNN reports that the White House has suggested that Putin might be prepared to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine. It's not clear what evidence this warning is based on, other than some unsupported allegations Putin supposedly made that the US was developing bio-weapons in Ukraine. To be fair, he has a well-established pattern of accusing his opponents, falsely, of things that he's about to do himself. Frankly, I don't see Russian use of chemical or biological weapons at this point in the war as likely, but I certainly wouldn't put it past Putin. He's seen Assad get away with it in Syria, and remain in power, so perhaps he's calculated that he can get away with it too. Considering the intensifying economic sanctions against Russia, he might believe he has nothing more to lose.

Finally, I've been a Sebastian Junger fan since A Perfect Storm. His book, War, which follows a platoon of the 173rd ABCT during its deployment in the Korengal Valley is a powerful portrait of men at war (the companion documentary film, Restrepo, is very good too). He recently penned a brief essay for Vanity Fair in which he asserts that Ukraine can win this war because has the three things that an underdog needs in order to defeat a more powerful foreign aggressor.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022...ssian-military

Slava Ukraini!

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[Bestbrian]

Putin directed the Russian military to employ 16000 "volunteers" from the Middle East (Syria). This underscores that the Russian army has poor training/morale/leadership and is unprepared for urban combat operations, not to mention that the national leadership is casualty adverse. Vlad: Go Home.

[swaghauler]

Here is a pretty good review by Sandboxx on the Russian Air war...

https://youtu.be/eXFDc-44YeE

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

Here is a pretty good review by Sandboxx on the Russian Air war...

https://youtu.be/eXFDc-44YeE

And there's this piece from last week on the capabilities (or lack thereof) displayed by the Russian Air Force.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Originally Posted by Bestbrian

Putin directed the Russian military to employ 16000 "volunteers" from the Middle East (Syria). This underscores that the Russian army has poor training/morale/leadership and is unprepared for urban combat operations, not to mention that the national leadership is casualty adverse. Vlad: Go Home.

I'm beginning to think that Russia would lose a war against the PA, OH and/or WV National Guard(s)

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Nowhere Man 1966

I'm beginning to think that Russia would lose a war against the PA, OH and/or WV National Guard(s)

I think so too. I ran training ranges with the 99th ARCOM and those boys can shoot. Hell, in PA, the first day of buck season is a school holiday. It is said that there are 2 MILLION hunters in the woods on the opening day of deer season. In addition, most of those Reserve and NG units have worked together for YEARS! They are NOT a bunch of conscripts with a year's experience or training.

Also, many Reserve units have members that do the same jobs in the civilian world (ie Transport units with CDL truckers in them, Medical units populated by nurses and X-ray techs, Construction units with welders, ironworkers, etc... in them). This gives US reserve units a knowledge base that they would never receive from straight military service.