OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Raellus]

This piece makes a strong case for Australia and other operators to send F/A-18 Hornets to Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ven-to-ukraine

I'm especially interested in our Aussie members' thoughts on this proposal.

-

[Heffe]

According to the Ukrainian MOD, it sounds as though some of the early work in preparation for the counteroffensive is already underway:

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-com...nister-1795402

I'd take this next piece with a huge grain of salt, but there's also some rumors starting to float around that Ukraine has been starting some probing attacks all along the lines in the Zaporizhia direction.

[Raellus]

I have a feeling that recent UAF talk about Crimea and Zaporizhia is Maskirovka to focus Russian defensive preparations and reserves in that region, while the main counter-offensive takes place elsewhere. That said, I'm not sure where the UAF's new maneuver brigades, armed with superior Western AFVs is best suited to operate, but I'd hate to see them smash themselves to pieces against Russian fixed defenses. Maybe the salient around Bakhmut. If the UAF could punch through the front lines there, they'd have room for operational maneuvers and could precipitate a route than might result in Russian withdrawals from other regions as well. On the other hand, UAF statements re Crimea and Zaporizhia could be a double-bluff. The suspense is getting to me.

-

[Heffe]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I have a feeling that recent UAF talk about Crimea and Zaporizhia is Maskirovka to focus Russian defensive preparations and reserves in that region, while the main counter-offensive takes place elsewhere. That said, I'm not sure where the UAF's new maneuver brigades, armed with superior Western AFVs is best suited to operate, but I'd hate to see them smash themselves to pieces against Russian fixed defenses. Maybe the salient around Bakhmut. If the UAF could punch through the front lines there, they'd have room for operational maneuvers and could precipitate a route than might result in Russian withdrawals from other regions as well. On the other hand, UAF statements re Crimea and Zaporizhia could be a double-bluff. The suspense is getting to me.

-

I've had that same thought! Looking at the strategic map, pushing toward Mariupol or Melitopol makes the most sense. If they can isolate Crimea it would be an enormous strategic win. They could also do so without widening their own lines too much. But that's also so clearly the obvious move that Russia has to be anticipating it.

From a political standpoint, cutting off and retaking Bakhmut would be a crippling move to make against the Russians for morale and domestic propaganda purposes. Imagine Russia spends six months and tens of thousands of troops slowly trying to take over this non-important town in eastern Ukraine, only to have Ukraine go in over a matter of days and retake all of that lost ground? There's no way Russian milbloggers or the Russian MOD could spin that as a positive development, and it could seriously hurt Putin's ability to generate future support for the war effort.

Or as a third option, perhaps Ukraine is waiting to see how Russia reacts to their probes before deciding on which direction to send the counteroffensive. I'm really curious to see how this all plays out.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

This piece makes a strong case for Australia and other operators to send F/A-18 Hornets to Ukraine.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ven-to-ukraine

I'm especially interested in our Aussie members' thoughts on this proposal.

-

I'd welcome it. To be frank, I'm not in favour of any limits on what (legal) vehicles and weapons are sent to Ukraine.

[kato13]

Probing attacks across the Dnieper near Kherson were not the first thing I suspected to happen. (Contested river crossing, with too much artillery in the area)

Probably a feint to pull troops away from Melitopol, but if the Russians collapse and a bridgehead is formed, who knows.


edit added link
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/23/7399048/

Yesterday -> Today

[Raellus]

Yeah, the Ukrainians better have something else planned besides attacking well prepared defensive positions head-on.

I really hope that the UAF HQ staff has studied the failure of Operation Citadel, and don't end up making the same mistakes that the Germans did at Kursk back in 1943.

-

[Raellus]

Reuters did an awesome piece about Russian fortifications in Ukraine, featuring maps, satellite imagery, and really cool sketches (including cutaways).

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKR...E/mopakddwbpa/

-

[bash]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Reuters did an awesome piece about Russian fortifications in Ukraine, featuring maps, satellite imagery, and really cool sketches (including cutaways).

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKR...E/mopakddwbpa/

-

The illustrations are awesome and the piece overall was very good. I wonder though how well Russia's defenses are actually put together. I've seen a lot of videos of the fighting around Bahkmut and the Russian trenches are a far cry from the Platonic ideal of US trench warfare manuals.

Im sure not all Russian fortifications will be as bad as the more hastily dug ones in the Bahkmut region. However there's likely to be highly variable quality across the front. If Ukraine has some good intelligence on the quality of the defenses it will likely inform their avenues of attack.

All things being equal it seems you want to attack the area defended by the 401st Lazy Diggers instead of the 302nd Defensive Position Experts.

[Heffe]

I seem to recall an article a week or two ago about Cavoli stating explicitly that the US has been helping Ukraine with counteroffensive planning. Which I suppose is probably to have been expected, but it was nice to hear it called out so plainly.

As for the counteroffensive, assuming one really happens, I imagine it will be picking up speed before long.

In southern Ukraine, the soil will be dry from around mid-April, then two weeks later in the Donetsk region, and from mid-May in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region further north...