Population increase and decrease

[Matt W]

A couple of points

New York (and the North East in general) are more urbanized than Kentucky and Tennessee. I can see their death rate being HIGHER than 95%.

Recovery in the "canon" KFS may be better than you are assuming. They have had a fairly stable political and economic system for over a century and their medical/education system is good enough to train Emdees. I suspect that the population would be nearer 2 million than the approximately 1 million that you show for Kentucky/Tennessee

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Matt W

A couple of points

New York (and the North East in general) are more urbanized than Kentucky and Tennessee. I can see their death rate being HIGHER than 95%.

Recovery in the "canon" KFS may be better than you are assuming. They have had a fairly stable political and economic system for over a century and their medical/education system is good enough to train Emdees. I suspect that the population would be nearer 2 million than the approximately 1 million that you show for Kentucky/Tennessee

Good points

I went with the 95% die off as per canon. But I do agree that areas such as New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania would probably suffer much higher numbers, but as of yet, I cannot determine just how high to go, would a couple of more percentage points work? But examining the mineral resources, salvage (especially high tech) as well as the agricultural potential of the rural areas, are all factors that should be considered in going with a higher population base.

As for Kentucky/Tennessee, both states have large rural areas, but a significant amount of their populations are located in their metro areas. I'm comfortable with a 0.8% birthrate, plus note that, as of yet, I've not included any indentured servants of any slave population in the Free State population. How large a percentage this should be, who knows?

[Desert Mariner]

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

Good points

I went with the 95% die off as per canon. But I do agree that areas such as New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania would probably suffer much higher numbers, but as of yet, I cannot determine just how high to go, would a couple of more percentage points work?

My thought on this is to subtract the population of the major metro areas from the state total and then start your die-off/growth computations.

Based on the top 100 populace cities in the 2000 census this would reduce the base populations as follows:

State / Original Base / New Base
NY / 18,976,457 / 10,259,672
PA / 12,281,054 / 10,428,941
KY / 4,041,769 / 3,525,026
VA / 7,078,515 / 6,021,881

What formula do you use for growth, I haven't been able to duplicate your numbers? I have an Excel sheet (more than willing to post this if I can arrive at a growth calculation that everyone agrees upon) that allows for input of Die-off, Growth Rate and Time and then computes all of the states but I'm not hitting your figures with either population growth formula I'm familiar with:

Projected Pop = Pt
Beginning Pop = P0
Growth Rate = R
Time = T
e = 2.71828 (base of natural logarithms)

Formula 1 -- Pt = P0 * (1+R)to power of T
Formula 2 -- Pt = P0 * (e)to power of (R*T)

[dragoon500ly]

Ah! I inserted several events that I've picked up reading post-oops books, in the 25 year period following the war, I dropped birthrates down to 0.2% to account for the breakdowns in sanitation, loss of modern medical facilitates and the loss of modern medications.

In the second 25 years, I increased the birthrates gradually up to 0.4%, assuming the awakening of the Rich Five, the opening of their stockpiles and the reconstruction of an industrial base, allowing a chemical industry.

In the third 25 year period, I assumed that the KFS would commence a serious expansion into its neighboring territories, leading to casualties among its military, and lowered the birthrate down to about 0.35% to account for the commitment of large numbers of troops.

At the 75 year point, I started fudging numbers in an attempt to determine the numbers of survivors who joined the Free State in an attempt to better their lives. I've ran several sets of numbers before I settled on a "realistic" number of 400,000, scattered across the ten state region. Then increased the birthrate up to 0.8% for the next 75 years.

I wish that I could say that I was able to use more precise numbers to plug into a formula, but this scenario is incredibly hard to be precise. A nuclear-biological war that kills off 95% of humanity both directly and indirectly, even the declassified studies from the Cold War have widely different SWAGs in how the populations would be affected.

I'm going to stand by my numbers, at least for my version of the Free State, and I look forward to the feedback and opinions!

[Desert Mariner]

In no way was I disputing your numbers. I was concerned that I might have an error in my formula somewhere when I wasn't matching you.

The myriad possibilities in a TEOWAWKI scenario are precisely why I choose to use standard projections. Otherwise, I'd be calculating the population broken into age groups, assigning fertility, mortality and migration rates to each and it quickly becomes unmanageable (at least for me).

For anyone that wants a quick way to play with population projections, I've attached my spreadsheet. I did modify it so that multiple periods of differing growth can be run, similar to your KFS scenario.

There are 3 worksheets in the file:
1. Standard - runs projections based on your input of Die-Off % and then Growth Rate % and Time (Years) for up to five (5) consecutive periods. If Growth Rate is left blank, the corresponding population column is also blank.
2. Less Major Metros. Same as item 1 but removes the population of the top 100 cities prior to beginning calculations.
3. Top 100 Cities - This is just a list of the top 100 populace cities from the 2000 census and is used as background data for item 2.

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Desert Mariner

In no way was I disputing your numbers.

Apologies, I've been dealing with the VA for the last three months, blood pressure is up and temper is just about non-existent! 😠

Looking forward to digging through your spreadsheet when I can get to a computer, these tablets are utter ....

[Desert Mariner]

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

Apologies, I've been dealing with the VA for the last three months, blood pressure is up and temper is just about non-existent! 😠

The VA has a way of doing that to all of us.