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  #721  
Old 04-19-2024, 10:41 AM
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Russian TU-22M Bomber Downed Over Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAwIVMfs3GM



Well this is something I never expected to actually see real life video of, even though I have read about, thought about, and even gamed many scenarios where such a thing would happen.

Probably friendly fire, but maybe spec ops working near an airfield?
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  #722  
Old 04-19-2024, 09:22 PM
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Russian TU-22M Bomber Downed Over Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAwIVMfs3GM



Well this is something I never expected to actually see real life video of, even though I have read about, thought about, and even gamed many scenarios where such a thing would happen.

Probably friendly fire, but maybe spec ops working near an airfield?
Allegedly our old friend the Ukrainian S-200. According to Ukrainian Intelligence, they were waiting for a week for the bombers to get close enough to an emplaced launcher, and they got a hit at 308 kilometers. An anonymous Ukrainian defense official told The War Zone that they've received "help from partners" upgrading the S-200's guidance system.

Personal speculation is they may have gotten assistance from Poland, who upgraded their monkey model S-200 missiles between 1999-2002, replacing tubes with transistors. I also suspect they may have slipped in an active radar seeker with the saved space/mass to help improve long-range accuracy over the semi-active radar seeker originally fitted - there was speculation right before the war that they had developed an active seeker for the S-125 and were trying to fit it to the S-200. If that improved accuracy sufficiently, they could also shrink the warhead and program the updated electronics to modify the flight profile to eke out some extra range with a slightly lighter missile. It would also let them shut off the ground radar much earlier if it wasn't having to illuminate the target for SARH, reducing the ground units' vulnerability to SEAD.
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  #723  
Old 04-21-2024, 01:32 AM
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US Ukraine bill passed - \o/ yay!

I found it interesting an ATACMS transfer was coded into the text

Quote:
Sec. 505. (a) Transfer of Long-Range ATACMS Required.—As soon as practicable after the date of enactment of this Act, the President shall transfer long range Army Tactical Missile Systems to the Government of Ukraine to assist the Government of Ukraine in defending itself and achieving victory against the Russian Federation.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-...5/text?s=2&r=4

While I am pretty sure we have already delivered some, I have been waiting for the time when there would be substantial delivery. Hopefully it will be soon.

While ATACMS may not be the final straw, along with F-16s (and Nato specific ordinance) arriving I am feeling more confident the Kerch bridge will not see new years day.
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  #724  
Old 05-01-2024, 03:44 PM
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I'm a long time reader of The War Zone. But in the last two or three days i have not been able to read the articles when i click on them. I get a message that reads

"Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser console for more information)."

Any ideas if this is a problem my end? Or their end? Anyone else having a problem?
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  #725  
Old 05-01-2024, 04:52 PM
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I haven't had any issues. I'm not a tech-savvy guy, but try clearing your cache and see if that doesn't clear up the issue.

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  #726  
Old 05-06-2024, 11:25 AM
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Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.



I have been waiting for something like this to show up. The missile capability probably limits it to low flying and slow speed targets (helicopters) but still a nice addition to the Black sea.
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  #727  
Old 05-06-2024, 01:38 PM
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Default Necessity is the Mother of Invention

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Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.
War Zone dropped an article about this today.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...o-air-missiles

The contrast in styles is somewhat humorous.

Ukrainian innovation: Drone attack boat with IR homing AAMs.

Russian innovation: Build a metal shed around an MBT to protect it from FPV attack drones.

Slava Ukraini!

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  #728  
Old 05-16-2024, 06:56 PM
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The Ukrainians are using their new, longer-range ATACMS to hit SAM sites and Russian-held airfields in Crimea. I wonder what their long-game is. I'm guessing that it's a shaping operation, to prepare for entry of the incoming F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark. That said, I'm not sure what the point is, strategically, as, at this point, I don't think Ukraine has any realistic chance of regaining Crimea by force-of-arms. So why expend their finite stock of long-range ATACMS in pursuit of that goal? It seems like they could be better spent shaping the battlefield in Donetsk and/or around Kharkiv, where UAF ground and- soon- air forces have a much better (but still not great, sadly) chance of regaining territory.

Thoughts?

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  #729  
Old 05-18-2024, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
The Ukrainians are using their new, longer-range ATACMS to hit SAM sites and Russian-held airfields in Crimea. I wonder what their long-game is. I'm guessing that it's a shaping operation, to prepare for entry of the incoming F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark. That said, I'm not sure what the point is, strategically, as, at this point, I don't think Ukraine has any realistic chance of regaining Crimea by force-of-arms. So why expend their finite stock of long-range ATACMS in pursuit of that goal? It seems like they could be better spent shaping the battlefield in Donetsk and/or around Kharkiv, where UAF ground and- soon- air forces have a much better (but still not great, sadly) chance of regaining territory.

Thoughts?

-
Russia has been using those sites to launch missiles at civilian targets within Ukraine, both converted SAMs and hypersonics carried by aircraft flying from Crimean airbases. Knocking those out would reduce Russia's ability to target Odessa in particular, allowing more grain to be exported.
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  #730  
Old 05-21-2024, 12:35 PM
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Default Ukraine and Crimea?

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The Ukrainians are using their new, longer-range ATACMS to hit SAM sites and Russian-held airfields in Crimea. I wonder what their long-game is. I'm guessing that it's a shaping operation, to prepare for entry of the incoming F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark. That said, I'm not sure what the point is, strategically, as, at this point, I don't think Ukraine has any realistic chance of regaining Crimea by force-of-arms. So why expend their finite stock of long-range ATACMS in pursuit of that goal? It seems like they could be better spent shaping the battlefield in Donetsk and/or around Kharkiv, where UAF ground and- soon- air forces have a much better (but still not great, sadly) chance of regaining territory.

Thoughts?

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A feint? Concentrate some effort in Crimea with ATACMS to draw off Russian resources then deploy the newly arrived F-16s en masse to achieve temporary air superiority in one of the sectors being threatened by recent Russian advances?
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  #731  
Old 05-28-2024, 01:28 PM
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Russia has been using those sites to launch missiles at civilian targets within Ukraine, both converted SAMs and hypersonics carried by aircraft flying from Crimean airbases. Knocking those out would reduce Russia's ability to target Odessa in particular, allowing more grain to be exported.
It also forces Russia to shift more AA equipment away from other parts of the front, as Russia can't afford to leave Crimea defenseless against air attacks.

Ultimately, if Russia loses the Kerch bridge, it puts most of the southern part of Ukraine at risk of becoming out of supply. To be clear, I don't see Ukraine pushing into Crimea with ground forces (ever, as historically that never seems to work out well for attackers), but if the Kerch bridge goes down and Ukraine takes control of the isthmus or close to the isthmus, they may not need to. I imagine this may also partially explain Ukrainian attacks on Russian landing ships in the Black Sea. Crimea becoming unlivable for Russians would put extreme political pressure on Putin domestically.
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  #732  
Old 05-29-2024, 10:44 PM
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Another potential justification for suppressing Russian anti-air assets in Crimea popped up as part of Sweden's airplane donation - in addition to 30 F-16s, they're donating a pair of Saab 340 AEW aircraft. The problem is going to be operating those somewhere where they can get a view of the airspace without being shot down by long-range SAMs or R-37 missiles. Reducing the AA defenses of Crimea could give them some breathing room to operate over the western Black Sea, since fighters trying to engage them there would have to get within range of Ukrainian SAMs or take a widely circuitous route that would give the radar plane time to leave the area.
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  #733  
Old 06-10-2024, 03:27 PM
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It's being reported that Ukraine plans to base a portion of its new F-16 fighters outside of Ukraine. A few reasons have been sited for this: to maintain an active training cadre on the type, to provide a source of replacement aircraft and parts, and, probably most importantly, to maintain a reserve outside the reach of the Russians (as Putin has already put a bounty on Ukrainian Falcons). Apparently, Putin has responded publicly to Ukraine's intentions by stating that Ukrainian F-16s outside of Ukraine are legitimate military targets, and that the Russians reserve the right to target and attack them. This may just be bluster, but it raises an interesting possibility: if Putin follows through on the threat and orders an attack of some sort on Ukrainian Falcons based in a NATO country, does this trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter? If so, would NATO respond with force? Worst case scenario, this is yet another way that WWIII could start in our day.

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  #734  
Old 06-10-2024, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
It's being reported that Ukraine plans to base a portion of its new F-16 fighters outside of Ukraine. A few reasons have been sited for this: to maintain an active training cadre on the type, to provide a source of replacement aircraft and parts, and, probably most importantly, to maintain a reserve outside the reach of the Russians (as Putin has already put a bounty on Ukrainian Falcons). Apparently, Putin has responded publicly to Ukraine's intentions by stating that Ukrainian F-16s outside of Ukraine are legitimate military targets, and that the Russians reserve the right to target and attack them. This may just be bluster, but it raises an interesting possibility: if Putin follows through on the threat and orders an attack of some sort on Ukrainian Falcons based in a NATO country, does this trigger Article 5 of the NATO charter? If so, would NATO respond with force? Worst case scenario, this is yet another way that WWIII could start in our day.

-
Probably bluster in my view but I don't put anything past Bad Vlad at this point. What, if anything, Brussels would do IF there were to be a strike on Ukrainian F-16's based in a NATO country? Anything goes, with my guess leaning toward either a modest proportional response or a finger wagging warning. Just my .02.
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  #735  
Old 06-10-2024, 06:25 PM
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The Dutch have already delivered 8 Falcons to Romania for pan-European training (including Ukrainian pilots), which is supposed to increase to 12-18 aircraft on top of the 24 they're delivering to Ukraine for combat use. The Romanian F-16s are not Ukrainian, so despite being used to train Ukrainian pilots a strike on Romania would seem to be a more extreme escalation than I'd expect from Russia.

There has been talk of some of the 24 donated to Ukraine being retained in Denmark for pilot training, since right now Ukraine has more pilots awaiting training than there are available slots to train them. Those would match Putin's threat more closely, but Russia striking Denmark seems unlikely to me. I'll admit that Kremlinology is always a bit iffy, but this feels like an empty threat intended to make Denmark rethink their training program rather than the sort of thing that leads to an actual attack. At most I would expect sabotage efforts, rather than an overt military strike.
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  #736  
Old 06-11-2024, 03:06 AM
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Putin is all talk. He will never order Russian forces to directly strike a NATO member while the alliance remains strong. That may change if something dramatic in NATO occurs, such as the US walking away from the alliance. Under such circumstances I could imagine Putin trying something just to see what the reaction would be. But for now I think his worst nightmare would be a full-scale NATO intervention in Ukraine. If that happened I'd expect his adult diaper delivery schedule to dramatically increase.
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  #737  
Old 06-26-2024, 02:30 PM
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Default North Korean Troops in Occupied Ukraine !?!

WTF?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...ed-territories

Is this going to encourage or discourage South Korea from providing lethal military aid to Ukraine?

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  #738  
Old 06-27-2024, 04:58 PM
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I had very little doubt Korea was going to step up on tech deliveries and now with DPRK committing to send troops within a month, I have close to zero doubts.

I heard someone say Putin at the moment is reactionary and not strategic. Pissing off the worlds 5th largest arms exporter and the largest generator of western artillery ammunition (with remaining untapped capacity), seems to fit that assessment.

Korea now has the opportunity to test their weapons and kill North Korean soldiers 4000 miles from their borders.
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  #739  
Old 06-28-2024, 01:30 AM
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Even if South Korea decides to stick to "defensive" weaponry, they license-built over a thousand Vulcan Air Defense Systems. A couple hundred were vehicle-mounted as the K263, based on the K200 IFV, and around a thousand were left as towed anti-aircraft guns. The K263 uses the same turret as the M163 that the Americans built based on the M113.

Any that South Korea isn't planning on using for their own SHORAD needs would likely be very welcome in Ukraine as supplements to existing systems, and they've been largely replaced by 35mm Skyguard systems, both towed and mounted on the K30 Biho. The Houthi in Yemen have fitted VADS into the beds of pickup trucks, and I have to imagine Ukraine would be capable of doing the same.

On the missile side of air defense, Korea is replacing a combination of Stinger, Igla, Mistral, and (UK) Javelin systems with the indigenous K-SAM, so any or all of those could be considered for transfer. I don't think they have enough of their larger SAM systems to consider transferring any of those.

If they're willing to provide offensive weapons, the K9 Thunder is probably too new, but it's replacing around a thousand of the K55/K55A1 self-propelled artillery system, which is based on the M109A2 Paladin. There are also around 100 of the K136 130/131mm MLRS in reserves that were originally going to be sold to the Philippines, but they backed out of the deal last year. Moving away from vehicles, there are a couple hundred ATACMS missiles that Korea might or might not be willing to send, along with a couple hundred obsolete Hyunmoo-1 short-ranged ballistic missiles that have allegedly been kept in reserve (which have around the same range as ATACMS, so they wouldn't be an escalation with regards to how far into Russia Ukraine could strike).
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  #740  
Old 06-30-2024, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
WTF?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...ed-territories

Is this going to encourage or discourage South Korea from providing lethal military aid to Ukraine?

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I would not be surprised if some of them fly the coop if they have no family or ties to home.
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  #741  
Old 07-08-2024, 02:34 PM
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Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)
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  #742  
Old 07-10-2024, 11:08 AM
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Again history coming really close to repeating itself.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...strikes-2024-7

Russia may resort to an old World War II tactic that had a key role in the D-Day landings to repel Ukrainian drone attacks -- (Barrage Balloons)
As maneuverable as drones are and with the skill of Ukraine operators I don't foresee this being very effective.
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