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Old 04-30-2021, 11:34 AM
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Default The USA-PRC Alliance in T2k

Early days...

This article highlights the IRL improving, cooperative relationship between the US and China during the 1980s, culminating in a collaborative defense development program called 'Peace Pearl'. This IRC scenario dovetails nicely with the v1 timeline.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...rn-jet-fighter

Peace Pearl fell apart and the relationship deteriorated after the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. The PRC then pivoted back to the USSR/Russia for support of its defense industry. Obviously, this all occurred sometime after GDW published v1.

I think the Tiananmen Square Protests happened in the updated v1 timeline, but I can see it playing out two ways that would maintain a relatively good working relationship with the USA.

Option one is that the Chinese government implemented pro-democracy reforms, mollifying the protestors. This outcome likely would have strengthened the relationship with the USA even more. It would also explain why the USSR started to perceive the PRC as a greater threat.

Option two is that the massacre and subsequent crackdown occurred like IRL, and that US-PRC did indeed sour again. But then, when the Soviets attack China c.95, the US acts opportunistically to assist the enemy (PRC) of its greater enemy (USSR).

The former option would give GMs an opportunity to build a T2kU where a close US-PRC economic/defense industry relationship has existed for several years before war breaks out between the USSR and China. The latter option lends itself more to an ad-hoc, unofficial alliance developing quickly only after the Soviets invade.

I'm not sure how the Tiananmen Massacre fits into the v2-2.2 timeline. That T2kU is not really my cup of tea. But I'm interested in your thoughts on that as well.

In your T2kU, did the Tiananmen Square Massacre occur? If so, how did it effect the US-PRC relationship?

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Last edited by Raellus; 04-30-2021 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 04-30-2021, 07:27 PM
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In V2.0 they start the timeline in 1989 and make a reference to Tienanmen Square without actually saying it specifically:

Quote:
Elsewhere, the Chinese political reform
movement is brutally crushed by government
military forces. An attempted coup against
President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled
(with the help of American air cover), and the
republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to
remove the government of Manuel Noriega.
So it does exist in the V2.0 and V2.2 timeline.
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Old 04-30-2021, 10:45 PM
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Even in my heavily modified timeline, Tienanmen Square happens. But when the USSR invades, all sins are forgiven as most western countries align with China. Western support is crucial to China surviving into 1997 and beyond, though most of China turns into a mass grave with most major cities getting a nuclear warhead or two. I have Shanghai and Hong Kong surviving the worst of it.
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Old 05-01-2021, 01:21 PM
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Iíd expect that Tianamen probably happened but following the start of the Sino - Soviet War in 1995 Realpolitik would kick in (if it hadnít already done so) so I donít really see it having a big impact (if any impact at all) on US - Chinese relations as theyíre established in the V1 timeline. Quite apart from anything else Iím sure that all the US defence contractors would be eager to make sure they got their slice of the pie.
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Old 05-01-2021, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six View Post
Iíd expect that Tianamen probably happened but following the start of the Sino - Soviet War in 1995 Realpolitik would kick in (if it hadnít already done so) so I donít really see it having a big impact (if any impact at all) on US - Chinese relations as theyíre established in the V1 timeline. Quite apart from anything else Iím sure that all the US defence contractors would be eager to make sure they got their slice of the pie.
With wartime censorship, there's a real chance that footage never got out to have an impact on American public support.

- C.
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Old 05-01-2021, 10:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tegyrius View Post
With wartime censorship, there's a real chance that footage never got out to have an impact on American public support.
I may have missed your point, but the TMSM occurred in mid-'89, and the Sino-Soviet War (v1) started in '95 or so, so the cat would have already been out of the bag as far as censorship would have gone. IRL, the US wasn't censoring images of the massacre in '89.

That said, I agree that realpolitik would have most Americans conveniently forgetting about that unpleasant incident when the opportunity to stick it to the Soviets with a proxy war in East Asia arises.

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Old 05-02-2021, 04:11 AM
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Yeah, never mind. I can't read calendars this weekend.

- C.
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Old 05-02-2021, 01:11 PM
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Default HELP!

What kinds of weapons systems do y'all anticipate the US selling (or Lend-Leasing) to the PRC once the Soviets invade?

I see it as an opportunity for US defense industry underdogs* to sell systems that were rejected by the Pentagon, or developed with the export market in mind. Aircraft like the F-20 Tigershark, for example, or the Scaled Composites ARES (thanks to Tegyrius for sending me the name) CAS jet.

I can also see the US Military offloading older gear that it was in the process of phasing out, like the Dragon ATGM, for example.

Lastly, I can see the Pentagon using China as a combat testing opportunity for newer tech. But then again, it wouldn't want the Soviets to capture working examples of that stuff (as the Soviets were likely to reverse engineer it for their own use, or use it to engineer countermeasures).

*The US defense industry wasn't as consolidated back in the 1980s and '90s as it is today.

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Last edited by Raellus; 05-02-2021 at 04:29 PM.
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Old 05-02-2021, 04:39 PM
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I agree I see older weapons system being sent as well. For Tanks, I see M48 and M60s along with the US helping to buy T-55 and T-62 variants from allies Israel, Egypt, etc) rather than M1s being sold. Canon does say that Tank and Assault Breaker systems are sold to PRC. I have a hard time believing ATACMS was sold to China, I can see Javelin going though definitely dragon as well. As far as aircraft. I could see the F-20 going into production as well as some older aircraft being sold such as A-4s, and A-7s, possibly F-4s. Helicopters, Blackhawks and Hueys along with some variants of the Cobra.
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Old 05-05-2021, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shrike6 View Post
I agree I see... the US helping to buy T-55 and T-62 variants from allies Israel, Egypt, etc) rather than M1s being sold.
Good call. I hadn't thought about facilitating third-party sales. Soviet-made weapons would probably be easier to integrate into the PLA's force structure than US-made gear due to commonality of parts, and training (most indigenous Chinese AFVs at the time were based on Soviet designs, if not direct copies).

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Originally Posted by shrike6 View Post
As far as aircraft. I could see the F-20 going into production as well as some older aircraft being sold such as A-4s, and A-7s, possibly F-4s. Helicopters, Blackhawks and Hueys along with some variants of the Cobra.
How about these?

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/ca...fig-1591155307

I see the A-7F Strikefighter and F-20 Tigershark as being a bargain one-two punch for the Chinese Airforce.

In my T2kU, once the USA enters the war, the USAF takes delivery of ex-ANG reserve A-7Fs converted from Bone Yard A-7 stocks. This would make even more sense if the conversion process had already started up (to supply the PRC).

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Last edited by Raellus; 05-05-2021 at 07:17 PM.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
Good call. I hadn't thought about facilitating third-party sales. Soviet-made weapons would probably be easier to integrate into the PLA's force structure than US-made gear due to commonality of parts, and training (most indigenous Chinese AFVs at the time were based on Soviet designs, if not direct copies).



How about these?

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/ca...fig-1591155307

I see the A-7F Strikefighter and F-20 Tigershark as being a bargain one-two punch for the Chinese Airforce.

In my T2kU, once the USA enters the war, the USAF takes delivery of ex-ANG reserve A-7Fs converted from Bone Yard A-7 stocks. This would make even more sense if the conversion process had already started up (to supply the PRC).

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Yeah I don't see a problem there. A-7F sounds like a good idea as well.
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