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Old 09-27-2011, 02:29 PM
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Default Nightmare in Libya: 20,000 Surface-to-Air Missiles Missing

This is really, really frigthening to learn... It's starting to look like our involvement with Libyan Civil War is really going to come back to bite us in the ass BIG TIME.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/nightm...ry?id=14610199

please watch the vidoes... Libyan made mustard gas is ALSO missing.
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:36 PM
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This is really scary. I've been leery of this Libya intervention by NATO because we don't know who were getting in the bargain. Could these guys be worse than Al-Quida?

And now with these missing weapons in who knows Who's hands....
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:45 PM
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Isn't blowback a wonderful thing?
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:47 PM
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I know.... there was evidence that al-Qeada and Muslim Brotherhood were among the leading rebels. But just like what happened in Egypt the administration said we have nothing to fear about the Mulsim Brotherhood. Igoring the fact that a western female reporter was RAPED by several hundred 'peaceful protestors' after one of the screamed out she was a Jew when the spotlights on the camera went out. I've been worried about the 'Arab Spring' since it started... because to many of the 'grassroots' Islamic groups in the middle east have ties to terrorist supporting organizations.

With all the things disappearing in Libya is almost as bad as the things found in Iraq that was severely under reported in the media (Sarin artillery warheads being used for IEDs or the Uranium flown out of the country in 2003 and the rest in 2008 from a nuclear research facility in Iraq), i'm getting really... really, worried about just what weapons can get into Terrorist hands.

All the chaos with the collapse of the Soviet Union and dispearing nuclear warheads was scary as hell in the 1990s. But there was the possibilly of those missing nukes having been accounting errors done by the the soviet bean-counters. With his, they've got pictures and videos of people driving off with TRUCKLOADS of SAM missiles.
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
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Isn't blowback a wonderful thing?
Yup. what really is a slap in the face, is the fact that if we had done what we PROMISED we'd do in Afghanistan during the Reagan and First Bush Administration we wouldn't have half the problems we've got with islamic terrorists... we had promised the alliance of freedom fighters we'd provide econonomic, politcal and social support for rebuilding their country when the soviets were driven out. But instead we just left without doing what we promised, and the Taliban came to power because the secular allies we supported just wasn't able to maintain enough public support to keep a secular government in power.

It's one of the reasons why the Second Bush Administration spent so much time, effort and money on nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan hoping we can keep terrorists from getting a stable place to build a base to support them. But in doing that we have supported corrupt officials and social acts in an attempt to cut corners because of political reasons.

:Shakes head:

there are no easy answers... but my grandparents use to say "nothing worth doing is really easy to do" and that "If you're going to do a job, take your time and do it right"
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Old 09-27-2011, 05:59 PM
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I'm sure some of the SAM will turn up in Europe or the United States as soon as can be managed.
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Old 09-27-2011, 06:09 PM
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The SAM's honestly don't worry me as much as the chemical weapons. We here in the states need to be more prepared for their possible use. But in Europe, how many times have you heard of say the RIRA, or who ever trying to buy, or found in one of their arms caches. But mustard agent seems a far scarier concept. Besides being used offensively. Its also a area denial agent. Imagine trying decontaminate Washington DC. Till then its off limits. Lots of potential for mayhem.
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Old 09-27-2011, 06:19 PM
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The SAM's honestly don't worry me as much as the chemical weapons. We here in the states need to be more prepared for their possible use. But in Europe, how many times have you heard of say the RIRA, or who ever trying to buy, or found in one of their arms caches. But mustard agent seems a far scarier concept. Besides being used offensively. Its also a area denial agent. Imagine trying decontaminate Washington DC. Till then its off limits. Lots of potential for mayhem.
So is the thought of the SAM's being used against passenger airliners going from europe to NA.
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Old 09-27-2011, 06:20 PM
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I'm just saying I feel we already face that threat.
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Old 09-27-2011, 07:50 PM
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The chemicals won't be fun, either. Just imagine the effect of a chemical attack on the US will have on the Bill of Rights. The only positive outcome of such a thing that leaps to mind is some lawyers arguing in support of the Fourth Amendment being tarred and feathered. Mind, I'm not anti-Fourth Amendment. Just anti-lawyer.
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Old 09-27-2011, 08:09 PM
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A chemical attack on US soil - or shutting down air traffic courtesy of some well-timed SAM attacks - would be that last little push our country needs to fall completely into the abyss, I think.

I mean, financially - the market would panic. We'd take most of the world down with us, too, since right now even though they're on safe-but-shaky ground the European Union couldn't absorb the shock of a 2- or 3-thousand point one-day drop. With Greece inevitably defaulting in such a situation and the initial wallop, the world economic markets would be mortally wounded.

Of course an additional after-effect would be stuff that'd make the Patriot Act look cute by comparison. The inevitable further curtailing of civil liberties (imagine the TSA doing random stops on freeway on-ramps to search cars, questioning you and why you're taking a given drive) would at this point, as fed up as people are now lead to riots, which would cause further crackdowns.

These are dangerous days we're living. I wish it hadn't come to this.
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Old 09-27-2011, 08:12 PM
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Here's a comforting-ish thought though, framed as a question...what's the shelf life on these?

I remember early on during Operation Bomb the Fuck Out of Afghanistan Then March in and Somehow Not Wind Up Like Alexander, the British, the Indians and the Russians there were questions of our FiM-92s being used against us, but the common answer seemed to be that the batteries were probably long dead, and the cryogenic component for the warheads was long "flat", too.

If these are vintage Strelas, they might not be good for much more than shoulder-fired HE rockets. If that.
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Old 09-27-2011, 08:17 PM
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Here's a comforting-ish thought though, framed as a question...what's the shelf life on these?

I remember early on during Operation Bomb the Fuck Out of Afghanistan Then March in and Somehow Not Wind Up Like Alexander, the British, the Indians and the Russians there were questions of our FiM-92s being used against us, but the common answer seemed to be that the batteries were probably long dead, and the cryogenic component for the warheads was long "flat", too.

If these are vintage Strelas, they might not be good for much more than shoulder-fired HE rockets. If that.
Solid rocket fuel degrades. First Gen IR seeker. To long to hide under a trench coat at the Mall.
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Old 09-27-2011, 09:27 PM
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You know, this cycle has happened several times in history before. Repressive government to relatively free country to repressive again to revolution to democracy to repressive government...

The saying doesn't actually say, " History repeats itself." That's a bad misquote. The actual quote is, "Those who do not remember the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them." And mankind has a really bad memory.

No superpower lasts forever. Our British and Spanish friends on this board know that well. Both countries were once superpowers -- at its height, Britain had a better claim to the title of "superpower" than the US has ever had. What does that tell you about the future of the US?

Remember, history is cyclic. The exact events are different, but the overall pattern remains the same.
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Old 09-27-2011, 09:40 PM
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I am less concerned by the mustard gas. In the Libyan climate if it wasn't stored properly (properly is not an arabic word), the stuff has likely degraded into fertilizer.
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Old 09-27-2011, 10:23 PM
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No superpower lasts forever. Our British and Spanish friends on this board know that well.
"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings. Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair..."
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Old 09-28-2011, 12:18 AM
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I'm not worried abouyt mustard gaz either - WWI is ample proof that if you want large scale effects out of it, you need a lot of it. As in 'truckloads'. Sure you can use some to spice up a bomb or the like, but there's no way you can get a city-wide effect from a terrorist group...

More modern nasties like Sarin are another matter, as you ned far less to acheive significant results, but it seems there wasn't any in Lybia.

Note that it's a bit odd that the rebels managed to get their hand on that much hardware still neatly packed into the wharehouses. It seems Khadafi's army fell for the common dictator trick : large stockpiles of hardware that looks impressive on paper an buy friends in the manufacturing countries and a shortage of reliable bodies to use said hardware. Also possibly a questionable storage that begs the question of how functionnal said hardware is.

All in all, in my option it's something that should be investigated serisouly, not something to get into the 'wring your hands in terror and yell for all-out action' mode.
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Old 09-28-2011, 05:45 AM
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Can we get a recount on those Missiles?
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Old 09-28-2011, 06:56 AM
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They don't need to hit anything to shut down an international airport. Just launching a SAM at an aircraft landing/taking off from a major airport will shut it down through fear alone. Doesn't matter about the warheads as long as they launch.
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Old 09-28-2011, 09:47 AM
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If terrorists really wanted SAM's they could have gotten them before this. I really do not fear this stuff being used in the U.S. I imagine some might find their way to Afganistan to be used against U.S. forces there.

Also, do we really think none of these weapon systems were a threat when Kadaffi was in power? Kadaffi supported terrorists for years and years after all.

Also, the U.S. has lost Billions of dollars worth of gear (including weapons) in Iraq and Afganistan. Honestly, any well-funded established terror group could lay there hands on SAM's and chemical weapons.
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Old 09-28-2011, 12:27 PM
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On 22 November 2003, shortly after takeoff from Baghdad, Iraq, an Airbus A300 cargo plane owned by European Air Transport ("DHL") was struck on the left wing tip by a surface-to-air missile. Severe wing damage resulted in a fire and complete loss of hydraulic flight control systems. Because outboard left wing fuel tank 1A was full at takeoff, there was no fuel-air vapour explosion. Liquid jet fuel dropped away as 1A disintegrated. Inboard fuel tank 1 was pierced and leaking.

Returning to Baghdad, the 3-man crew made an injury-free landing of the crippled aircraft, using differential engine thrust as the only pilot input. This is despite major damage to a wing, total loss of hydraulic control, a faster than safe landing speed and a ground path which veered off the runway surface and onto unprepared ground.

Paris Match Reporter Claudine Vernier-Palliez accompanied a Fedayeen commando unit on their strike mission against the DHL aircraft.

Sara Daniel, a French weekly newsmagazine journalist claimed receipt, from an unknown source, of a video that showed insurgents, faces concealed, firing a missile at the A300. Daniel was researching a feature about Iraqi resistance groups but she disclaimed any specific knowledge of the people who carried out the attack, despite being present at the moment of attack.


Now that happened in Baghdad... the plane was able to land safely, but it showed that something like this could actually happen. Now in Baghdad International Airport, they have all kinds of close guards that are suppose to protect against such kind of attack.

Now I don't usually agree with Sen. Boxer (D-CA), but she's had a few ideas inspired moments of clarity that i have supported in the past. She's been wanting the US government to spend the money to get countermeasures for SAM missiles installed on all international flights. And she's been asking for this since 2001 or so. And it's an idea that COULD have been adopted in Twilight 2000 prior to air travel being suspsended during the build-up to the Twilight War (no matter what timeline or version you want to use).

Me, i'm not worried and wringing my hands.

I'm looking at all the crap that is happening around the world, and the fact that people who tried to warn others that this was coming were called crazy, bigoits and just plan evil... when someone calls out about something, and has a history of having been accurate about what they've been saying. You should at least listen to what they are saying, and investigate what they are trying to warn you against. I did that when people were screaming against the Patriot Act. I did it when people were saying we were creating a police state in 2002.. but am worried when worse programs are being implimented today, but are being ignored.

Me... I'm worried about the fact that Mustard Gas can be used in deeply compact and high population areas (NYC). Using it as an area denial area IS something I worry about, but not the kind of thing I'm thinking it would be used on. My fear for Chemical and Bio Weapons has always been aimed at their use to attack commuters in Subways.

I wrote a paper on that when i was in the Navy and gave it in to my CO who read it, liked it and sent it up the pipeline, and he told me that ten page paper had triggered another Pentagon study on what would happen if someone was to use chem or bio weapons in the NYC subway system on a Friday afternoon. I ended up getting another letter of commendation in my service jacket out of it (my second one, the first was from having done such a good job of organizing the CBR warfare team onboard the ship, the thrid was from the work I was doing during the refurbishment of the berthing spaces of the Ike, and the fourth I got was when i modernized the VF-43 "Chanllengers" patch... and now you know why people are beyond confused about me having an RE-4 code on my DD214 when i got out of the navy).

And just about ANYONE can make chemical weapons, if you research it... you can find the instructions on how to make the stuff here on the internet. Hell, there are people who have actually put the directions and plans for chemical weapons and improvised munitions ONLINE. And they did it because they felt that EVERYONE should have that knowledge. Now I'm someone who feels that things like that SHOULD be availiable to adults, but I don't think that children should be able to get their hands on it.

Especially since I have read about local police recently stopped a bombing attack on a school here in the US, and the kid who was going to do it had gotten the all the directions form the internet.

There is so much out there that can be used by evil people for evil ends... but we can't solve the problems of this by just taking all that down and getting rid of it. We can only slove those problems by dealing with the source.

The darkness that resides in our own souls.

And until we can deal with that darkness, all we can do... is prepare for the worse and hope (and pray) for the best.

I started this thread to let everyone know a news story that I had saw that just bothered me when I read it. The NUMBERS of the SAMs that had been taken just really bothered me. And I believe that knowlege is power... and that by letting everyone here know about this would get people to talk and think.

And it's been making me think, ALOT.

A situtation like that of Twilight 2000 (v1, v2, v2.2 and v3) is something that could have actually happen in our lives. It was speculative fiction before it became alternate history. AND if everyone thinks about it, this hasn't been the first time in our history that things have been alot like this. The Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer in 1983 almost provoked the Soviets to attack, the incident that the Soviets almost fired their missiles at us because of a screwy early warning system... and others that we just don't know about yet.

And Twilight 2000 showed us how our world could have devolved into a horrible, horrible outcome by people making worse choices than they did in real life. And while some of those choices are what caused many of these problems today (Afghanistan), they didn't lead to a nuclear exchange that brought about mutually assured distruction. But today we're dealig with the problems that had been created to keep the world from another major conventional war... mutually assured ecconomical destruction.

Today's world has so much going on, the ecconomy is in such a recession that people are too scared to officially call it a depression that has triggered nations that are in so much debt they are about to collapsed in upon the weight of the excessive progressive social programs they had been giving to their citezens for decades without though of how they would keep paying for them in tough ecconomic times.

And then there are revolutions and wars that breaking out all across the middle east... that are making things worse because it's hampering oil production (which makes me angry that we aren't drilling for our own oil reserves that makes what is in the middle east look like a drop in the bucket, i mean... the RUSSIANS are drilling for their oil and their ecnomy has been improving).

Twilght 2013 COULD have used all this to have created v3 of Twilight 2000, because many of the problems we've got going on today had been warned about back in the 1990s, but the War on Terror ended up taking over the minds of the world. It became so distracting that it was all anyone could think of or talk about.

In the past week I have read of the rapid increase of racially motivated attacks in the United States and the United Kingdom, where there are gangs of black (and hispanic) men have attacked whites, but the mainstream national media hasn't picked up these local stories to broadcast them to the rest of the nation.

This troubles me because I just don't understand racism. I can't see how anyone can just hate someone because of the color of their skin. How a group of people can come together and kick in someone's front door and attack them, JUST BECAUSE they are a different skin color. But it's happening, and I don't know what to say or do about it.

I gues what i'm saying is... the old Chinese Curse of "may you live in interesting times" is something that happens EVERY generation (face it everyone, in 1989 we could have ended up with a USSR deciding to go down fighting instead of just breaking up with a whimper). Because every generation has crisises that will come and test them... it's how we deal with these crisies that tests us, and shows just what we are made of.

And I hope, and pray that we come out of all this... just as have those that have come before. Because that's how you build character and dignity. Is by coming through these kinds of things without allowing the darker and more base instincts from coming out. And I am hoping that I'm not the only one who is hoping (and praying) for this here on this forum... it's why i shared all this with you.
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Old 09-28-2011, 01:23 PM
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[I]
Me... I'm worried about the fact that Mustard Gas can be used in deeply compact and high population areas (NYC). Using it as an area denial area IS something I worry about, but not the kind of thing I'm thinking it would be used on. My fear for Chemical and Bio Weapons has always been aimed at their use to attack commuters in Subways.
I agree that people should be listened to. However, when it comes to what you describe, mustard gas from Libya isn't really a danger to US. They are more of a danger to populations in the Mediterranean and more likely Libya itself. I would be Israel, I wouldn't call that a good news. Can you imagine if HAMAS was to receive only part of these?

Then, understand me, I'm not saying that what you describe can't happen, I simply think that bringing these mustard gas to US is not worth it. It would be much easier to produce another gas locally or to steal chemicals from any industrial farm from the Midwest. Sarin attack in the Tokyo subway (1995) is a good exemple.

SAMs are an entirely different matter and you don't need to bring them to US at all to strike american/european aircrafts. In the worse scenario you can simply think of small sail ships being position near coastal airports (Nice, Porto, Madera being only three exemples of such airports) to do really serious damages. If you can launch enough attacks at about the same time, casualties could be very superior to that of 9/11.

In a scenario I wrote some years ago, the Twilight War starts in 2009 after "Hell Rising Day". During that event which takes place 8 years after 9/11, 30 civilian aircrafts are shot down with SAMs (including 11 in the USA). Final casualties is above 4000 and the terrorist teams used multiple strike on each aircrafts (from 3-5 missiles each time). In my scenario these missiles were smuggled out of Afghanistan and Iraq but why not Libya?

Damn we are again coming under close watch by the NSA.
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Old 09-28-2011, 06:58 PM
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And just about ANYONE can make chemical weapons, if you research it... you can find the instructions on how to make the stuff here on the internet. Hell, there are people who have actually put the directions and plans for chemical weapons and improvised munitions ONLINE. And they did it because they felt that EVERYONE should have that knowledge. Now I'm someone who feels that things like that SHOULD be availiable to adults, but I don't think that children should be able to get their hands on it.
If you burn freon (a not-uncommon refrigerant gas) you produce phosgene, a nasty chemical agent. Easy as pie.
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Old 09-28-2011, 07:16 PM
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Funny my Squad was on MSR that day.

We just left Camp Kalsu and were heading north on MSR Tampa to BIAP.

See a long smoke trail that goes to a big yellow plane. The plane makes a wide shallow turn going from our left (west) to our right (east) and points back toward Baghdad.

Probably used 50 miles of sky to turn around and was visible to us for atleast 30 minutes doing it.
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Old 09-28-2011, 10:20 PM
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I won't comment on the efficacy of a chemical weapons attack on the US. The backlash concerns me more. A bungled attempt with worse results than any of the chemical accidents in Texas City will have Americans screaming for suspension of civil liberties and Ben Franklin rolling over in his grave.
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Old 09-28-2011, 10:44 PM
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The chemicals won't be fun, either. Just imagine the effect of a chemical attack on the US will have on the Bill of Rights. The only positive outcome of such a thing that leaps to mind is some lawyers arguing in support of the Fourth Amendment being tarred and feathered. Mind, I'm not anti-Fourth Amendment. Just anti-lawyer.
Sadly, the 4th Amendment has already been trampled upon by the TSA in every airport and major transportation hub in America.
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Old 09-29-2011, 03:17 PM
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Small update on the mustard gas.

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Originally Posted by (AP) AMSTERDAM, Netherlands
The international chemical weapons watchdog says stockpiles captured so far in Libya are in line with what Muammar Qaddafi's regime had previously declared, and no new weapons have been found.
The fate of the country's chemical weapons and precursors had been uncertain amid the chaos of the country's civil war.

Qaddafi used chemical weapons against Chad in the 1980s, but agreed to disband his weapons program in 2003.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said Thursday remaining stockpiles appear under control after being seized by fighters for the country's new government last week.

The organization says around half of Qaddafi's supplies were destroyed before the revolution, and remaining stores of mustard gas can be destroyed within a month.
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Old 09-29-2011, 05:04 PM
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Thanks Jason.

Can anyone help me find a timeline about A.Q. Khan's nuclear black market?

I need the info for the work i'm doing on my timeline for "WWIV: A World in Flames" and my alternate Twilight 2000 setting.

So far I've found a timeline that has what happened in the seqence of events, but i've not been able to find out the dates when things happened. Right now I'm willing to just get the year the events happened.
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Old 09-29-2011, 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Grimace View Post
Sadly, the 4th Amendment has already been trampled upon by the TSA in every airport and major transportation hub in America.
I won't say anything in favor of TSA, as they are responsible for my wife missing her flight from Fort Bliss to San Francisco during my train-up. (Are TSA the only a******s in the country who don't know that white servicemen often marry women of color, and therefore it's not unusual for a black, Asian, or Hispanic woman to have a dependent's ID card with an Anglo, Irish, or German last name? Come on, now...) However, if one is flying one is entering into an optional contract with a carrier. One can avoid the search by not flying. Of course, in modern America not flying imposes substantial inconveniences. But I expect to be felt up when I travel at Christmas. (Not okay with some TSA agents who use security as a cover for pedophelia getting their mitts on my children.) So far, though, this hasn't translated into checkpoints on the major roads and random searches of homes. That's the development I'm worried about.

Of course, the soccer moms of America will change their minds when they find out how some cops behave when they are given free rein. The first time a soccer mom tries to keep the cops out of her underwear drawer and gets stuffed, her feelings about civil liberties and security will undergo a dramatic change. The first time the family dog gets shot or kicked to death by that certain percentage of the police force who joined not to serve but to have power, the family will begin to wonder about the price. When teenaged Sally comes home with a sob story about what happened at the checkpoint and mom and dad discover that there is effectively nothing they can do, now that civil liberties have been exchanged for security, the family will begin to think twice about the value of security. Unfortunately, it's a lot easier to give up rights than it is to get them back. That, sadly, is a lesson too many Americans will only learn the hard way. More's the pity for the rest of us.
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Old 09-29-2011, 09:22 PM
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So there is reason to suspect that there is widespread sexual assault and paedophilia occuring at airport security gates and in police operations? I'm not doubting you, mind, I'm just asking if the feeling is that this is relatively commonplace? Because if it is, where is the public outrage? My 9 to 5 job is being immersed in the media and I read a lot of news articles from the US. I've heard murmurings about this sort of thing but I didn't think it was felt to be widespread.
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