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Old 09-13-2009, 09:20 AM
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Mohoender Mohoender is offline
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Talking Final Timeline for Mo.

Too bad for you, dog6 asked for it but promise, it will be the last one.

Everything has to reach its end and this timeline entirely satisfy my own approach to the Twilight war. It allows me to play a slightly more modern version of the game while keeping the cold war alive. As a matter of fact my PCs can ride M60 Patton and face Black Eagle tanks.

The last two timeline had been prototypes and they were the result of me (as a GM) having a hard time to chose between a full respect of canon (didn't really enjoy the idea) and a throwing away of canon, replacing it by a fully post-cold war setting (not entirely good as well IMO). What do you want, I like the idea of having a few CF Adams destroyer around and couldn't accept the idea that my pilots would not have had access to F-4 Phantom and Mirage F-1. F-16s are nice but my favourite jet aircraft is and will remain the F-5 Tiger II.

As for my previous timeline, I'm far from claiming full paternity. It is based on the v2.2 and some sentences in the text are even fully extracted from the orginal v2.2 timeline. That is done on purpose as I want to keep the atmosphere of Twilight 2000 and as I want to praise the original team. This game never made it very far in France and if I had not been living in US between 1990-1993, I would certainly have missed it. Nevertheless, despite the huge amount of critics I can make on it, I remain a strong defender of the original game. IMO the original team made an outstanding work (twice) with what was available to them at the time.

Now I start to post that last timeline (a middle-ground one), enjoy the reading.

By the way, as winter slowly comes, from time to time, I'll be bothering you with what I write on the different countries of the world. This is my last timeline, not the end of me. The next post will be on Portugal and Spain
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Old 09-13-2009, 09:20 AM
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Default Introduction


The world as we know it has ceased to exist. The events that followed the falling of the Berlin Wall took a very different path and this resulted in what is known as the Twilight War. Damages and casualties had reached a level that was never seen before except during the time of the great plagues in Medieval Europe. For some years, now, the world political organization has vanished almost entirely and only a handful of states survived. Almost everywhere, law and order have vanished and chaos prevail. Life is short, violence is everywhere and all the power that remain is in the hands of local, and often bloodthirsty, leaders. Fightings are still going on but the ressources are scarce and most modern equipment have disapeared.
The world economy is devastated and most large cities have been reduced to rubbles. Working industries are rare and, everywhere, time took its toll: Infrastructures are in decay and most of the industries left are abandonned or working at a very slow rate. Nowadays, most productions are coming out of small local industries. Various equipments that had survived are know rotting in the field as nobody could repair them anymore. Some countries retain only a very little amount of industries (China, Germany, USA...), others still have a tiny industrial capacity that is producing what it can to supply their armies (Canada, Russia, Turkey, UK...), some do have a true production capability but this is working at a reduced rate (France, Hungary, Ireland, Sweden, Thailand...) and a few were mostly untouched and continue to produce goods to a fair level (Australia, Denmark, Switzerland...). Oil and Gas are now rare and expensive goods, seeing much reduced productions and reserved to a few strategic domains (Such as AvGas production). For the most part, Ethanol, Methanol and natural oils have replaced them while natural oils are also used as lubricants. Everywhere, the technology has falled back when control circuitries and electronic components were fried by the EMP generated by the high altitude exchange that ended the nuclear phase of the war. Prewar predictions of EMP proved to be understimates : civilian and fixed military infrastructures were damaged extensively while most vehicles proved surprisingly resilient.
The ecological balance of the planet was also changed deeply. Entire regions were devastated and are now called “Dead Zone”. Some of them were hit by nukes but, in fact, most of these fell victim to chemical or biological contamination. They are wastelands where nothing survive for long. To get in one of these “Dead Zone”, you better have some good equipments and good motivations. However, the nukes themselves, as the various accidents that followed some of the bombings, never had the estimated consequences. Of course, many live stocks in these areas died consequently but a good portion of them survived. Today, those who dare go near a nuked area will have the surprise to discover a rich nature where life, sometimes a mutated one, is everywhere. On an other hand, the climate has changed deeply but the consequences were somewhat less dramatic than expected. A “Nuclear Winter” stroke the world but it lasted only for about six month; temperatures have dropped by 20°C and the casualties were heavy. Since then, the climate has changed in a way no one really expected. In the Northern Hemisphere, average temperatures have dropped by 5°C and the winters are longer, generally going from mid-October to the end of May. Droughts, floods and tornadoes are more common even in Europe. The Ice Shelf goes almost to Iceland and most of the northern seas are often covered with ice in winter: Saint Laurent Strait, Baltic Sea and the North Sea. Life conditions in the Polar Regions are extremely difficult, and the lands located near the Polar Circle are almost entirely empty. Every winter, snow is everywhere down to the 40° Latitude. In the Southern Hemisphere, things have evolved in a different maner as the deserts and the jungles are extending again. As a matter of facts, extreme climate types have become more of the rule and Earth is lacking in temperate areas. Some species have disapeared entirely but others are doing very well and many new ones have appeared almost everywhere. Moreover, several countries, such as Japan, experienced huge natural catastrophies.

Except in very few surviving states, the governments don’t have what is needed to enforce their will and their means of action have been reduced to a minimum. State agencies have disapeared from many places and what they can do is generally reduced to almost nothing, Some military forces have been reorganized but they cannot act very far away from the local level. Most are used as police forces and they patrol areas that are too large for them. In some places, private forces and agencies have been rebuilt but these are mostly unreliable thugs.

Most of the world, the “Outlaws”, is a combination of territories that escape any kind of law and they are more or less devastated buy the war. These regions are the domain of wild animals, mutating creatures and marauding bands. From time to time, you’ll find some isolated communities that retain some kind of structure: they are generally know as the “Havres”. They are always organized around what was left from a pre-war city or town and they have a reduced population. Often facing danger, these populations distrust strangers and they will not easily let you get in. Towns and villages all have some kind militia and they keep some type of cottage industry (food process, alcohol brewing, iron work, low level mechanic, light metal work, textile or ammunition production). Some are involved in some kind of limited trade but most only produce what they need. Ressources are rare, comming mostly from recycling, and the only exception is that of alcohol. Alcohol (Ethanol and Methanol) is the new fuel and most community produce it to some extend.
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Old 09-13-2009, 09:21 AM
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Default A bit of history (1989-1992)

Of course, we all know about past events form the 1990’s but one can easily assume that they could have evolved in a very different and dramatic way.

This is the year of all hopes as it saw the end of the soviet presence in Afghanistan and the decay of the Soviet Union. By mid-February, all soviet troops have left Afghanistan leaving Najibullah’s regime alone to face the Mujahideen. In the meantime, all across the Warsaw Pact, pro-democracy demonstrations, often peaceful, are held and the communist grip over Eastern Europe start to loosen as Warsaw Pact members engaged in a path toward freedom. Hungary slowly removes border restrictions and the Hungarian Republic is officially declared in October. Poland newly appointed prime minister is a member of Solidarnoç. Czechoslovakian velvet revolution results in the fall of communist rule on December 29 while Bulgaria slowly moves away from hard-line communism. At last, Communists are quickly loosing control over East Germany and, on November 9, the Berlin Wall falls. However, Romania is stroke by a full fledge revolution that starts in Timisoara and ends with the execution of Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena on December 25. In addition, almost all over Eastern Europe, a number of German ethnic organizations form in response to West Germany's policy of accepting as a German citizen anyone who can prove themselves of Germanic descent (it is rumoured that membership in ethnic clubs will be good enough).
Inside Soviet Union itself civil unrest and ethnic strife are growing resulting in demonstrations and riots as it is the case in Azerbaïdjan and Georgia. On these occasions, the red army moves in and several people are killed and wounded. At last, the only European communist governments which survive are those outside the Warsaw Pact: Yugoslavia and Albania.
Elsewhere, the situation varies greatly and a number of incidents occur. However, they are not seen as significant. Iran breaks off diplomatic relations with the United Kingdom over Salman Rushdie's The Satanic Verses. Christian General Michel Aoun declares a 'War of Liberation' to rid Lebanon of Syrian forces and their allies. The Chinese political reform movement is brutally crushed by government military forces and Tien An Men becomes a symbol. An attempted coup against President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled (with the help of American air cover). In Venezuela, the Caracazo, a popular uprising, occured in february but is crushed by security forces killing up to 3000. The republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

The movement toward democracy in the Eastern Bloc continues but 1990 also brings up a number of surprises to the world.
Slowly, the movement initiated outside of Russia starts to spread to the Soviet Union as soon as January: People demonstrate for independence in Lithuania while the Red Army moves toward Azerbaïdjan under a state of emergency decree. Finally, in March, Lithuania is the first Baltic Republic to declare independence soon followed by Latvia. In June, the Russian Duma declares its sovereignty, followed soon by similar declarations from the other Republics. Ethnic unrest continues to simmer in Azerbaijan, and spreads to most of the Caucasus and Central Asia, taking the form of ethnic demonstrations and occasional riots. Although most of it fails to come to the attention of the rest of the world, who are distracted by events in Germany.
In Eastern Europe, the movement toward freedom accelerates and the year starts with people storming the Stasi HQ in East Germany. Soon after, the Soviet Union agrees to withdraw all its troops from Czechoslovakia. This movement culminates with the reunification of Germany becoming reality in October. A month later, Germany and Poland reach an agreement over their border dispute and the German-Polish Border Treaty is signed and ratified by the Polish Sjem. Officially, the newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia. By the end of the year, following that of Czechoslovakia, soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland and Hungary. Elsewhere, in Western Europe, it has to be noted that the IRA has launched an increasing number of attacks toward Britain.
In the Middle-East, the year begins with the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen unifying and becoming the Republic of Yemen. Later, Iraq stuns the West by invading Kuwait in August. With the Soviet Union in increasing disarray, the world rallies behind US leadership in resisting Iraqi aggression, and troops from three dozen countries, a few of them still formally members of the Warsaw Pact, pour into Saudi Arabia. Then, while the world is occupied with Iraq, Syria achieves victory over Aoun and takes control of Lebanon.
Elsewhere in the world, a few significant events take place. The Indian withdrawal from Sri Lanka open the gates to a revival of the Civil War and violence increase again. To everyone’s surprise, a coalition of opposition parties headed by Violetta Chamorro is defeated by Daniel Ortega's bid for re-election in Nicaragua. Sandinistas are strongly reinforced by this result and the Contras are forced back into insurgency. Finally, In Africa, F.W. de Klerk legalise the ANC and frees Nelson Mandela, starting a process intended to end the Apartheid.

In January, the Gulf Coalition begins a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and follows it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February which liberates Kuwait and crushes the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam remains in power, his authority is reduced to the central third of his nation and his military is no longer capable of aggression against neighbouring states. In the meantime, Soviet forces storm Vilnius to stop Lithuanian independence. Soviet rule continues to weaken up until summer with Estonia and Latvia voting for independence while Gerogia declares it as soon as April.
Ethnic and religious violence in the Caucasus and in Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union escalates while the Soviet Union increases its troop withdrawal schedule in order to use the forces inside its own borders. Tensions are particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Gorbachev continued to vacillate between an all-out drive for reform and an all-out commitment to a strong central government in the old style and the result is an accelerating slide toward chaos with the signing, in May, of Sino-Russian Border Agreement appearing as the only bright point. On July 1 the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hardliners. In August the hardliners seize power in a bloody coup.
On August 19, elements of the Taman Guards and Kantemir Motor Rifle Divisions move into the center of Moscow and seize important public buildings and radio stations. An eight-member Emergency Committee deposes Gorbachev (for "reasons of health") and bans strikes, protests, or public assemblies. Defiant protesters gather at the Soviet Parliament building, along with a few dissident military units and a cadre of armed Afghan War veterans, to defend Yeltsin and the Parliament. On August 20, elements of the Kantemir Division, spearheaded by the elite KGB "Alpha Team," storm the Parliament building and scatter the protesters. Russian President Yeltsin, along with an estimated 800 others, die in the assault.
With Yeltsin dead and Gorbachev imprisoned in the Crimea, acting Soviet President Yanayev declares the establishment of a "renewal government." The governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldavia, Ukraine and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) denounce the new government as illegal and declare the Soviet Union to be dissolved. However, Azerbaijan, Belarus and the republics of Central Asia grant their support while everyone in the West, expressing concern, formally condemns the Coup. The situation improves slightly when Russia recognizes the independence of the Baltic States, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldavia.
While this is taking place in the Soviet Union, a similar process takes place in Yugoslavia when both Croatia and Slovenia secede in June, followed in short order by Macedonia. Violence soon broke out between the Serbian dominated federal government and militias of the breakaway states. Peace is quickly restored in Slovenia but fighting continue over Croatia.
The consequences of the coup do not only affect Eastern Europe but soon result in rising tensions over Western Europe when, in late December, the Bundestag refuses to ratify the border treaty between Germany and Poland and states that the treaty will not be examined before next fall. In addition, the German chancellor declares that because of the new situation in Russia, Germany will increase its military efforts. Consequently, plans are drawn to incorporate various units from East Germany and an arm refit program is designed.

With the change of policy in Germany, worries rise again among most countries in Eastern Europe and history takes a different path. Elections in Albania bring a pro-western government to power but these held in Bulgaria confirms the communist to office. In May, Russia meet with the Central Asian Republics at Tashkent establishing the “Russian Union of Sovereign States”. Deceived by Germany’s attitude, Poland finally denounces the border treaty it agreed upon and turns again toward Russia. In late summer, a conference attended by all R.U.S.S. members, Poland and Bulgaria is held at Warsaw. Poland and Bulgaria join the collective security treaty and the Tashkent Treaty evolves into Warsaw Pact 2. Russian forces are to be garrisoned again in Poland and various news network starts to talk openly of a neo-Cold War. Tensions rose also in May when Crimea, declaring independence from Ukraine, get support from Moscow. On the next day, Russian units move across the Kerch Strait. Ukraine is outraged but, left with little troops when many former soviet officers offered their loyalty to Russia in January; the country is unable to take any real action. A similar event takes place a month later when Abkhazia joins South Ossetia and declares independence from Georgia. Moscow recognizes these two regions and troops are sent in again. This time, the western world reacts and Russian assets are frozen. The Kremlin answer is almost immediate and President Yanayev declares publicly that all western assets in Russia are to be taken over while his government refuses to assume any longer the Soviet debt, stating that it grew as a result of the insane policy conducted by Gorbatchev.
In the Balkan region, Bosnia demands that Yugoslavian federal troops withdraw from the province, a request which the Serbian-dominated central government refuses. In addition, minor, non violent, incidents take place in southern Albania between the Greek population, Albanians and Albanian authorities. Toward mid-year, the Serbs are besieging Sarajevo and what is known as the Yugoslavian Wars enters a new stage.
By mid-year, Slovakian separatists have gained enough seats in the Czech parliamentary elections to force the division of the country into two sovereign states: Slovakia and the Czech Republic. As soon as this is achieved, Slovakia turns toward Russia and becomes the next country to join Warsaw Pact 2.
In Western Europe, the Maastricht treaty is signed, founding the European Union. Soon after, the UN gets involved in Bosnia-Herzegovina when the Security Council approves Resolution 743 to send a UNPROFOR peacekeeping force to Yugoslavia. However, later in the year, Russia will refuse extensions of this force mandate. In the meantime, both major terrorists organization of Europe, the ETA in Spain and the IRA in Northern Ireland, adopt more radical path and the number of attacks increase. In Italy, investigations are carried out on Democrazia Cristiana and uncover endemic corruption practices at the highest level. This is starting a series of scandals that quickly undermine the Italian leading party.
Since the August Coup, the Kremlin has increased aid to foreign power and this continues to grow, tipping the balance in various regions. Najibullah’s regime of Afghanistan, supplied with large quantities of oil and weapons, inflicts a number of defeats to the Mujahideen. Sandinistas of Nicaragua, reinforced by their victory in the elections, are now pushing their advantage toward badly weakened Contras that has lost most of US support. Cuba recovers and Castro is able to maintain and modernize its forces. Mongolia experiences a fast recovery under the rule of the old communist party. There, the path to democracy comes to a quick end and, before year’s end, the country is a member of Warsaw Pact 2.

In March, with the signing of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, China brings back hope to the world. This, however, is short lived as confirmation of the 1991 border treaty by Russia brings fear that the two countries could build new ties. Hopefully, this fear doesn’t last as it is obvious that China, intending to pursue its path toward socialist market economy, doesn’t have any true desire to hamper its relation with the Western World.
In the Middle-East the situation remains tense as Iraq continues to refuse access to UN inspection teams to several of its military complexes. In addition, Kurds become increasingly active in both Iraq and Turkey; their guerrillas seeking sanctuary in the UN protected northern third of Iraq when needed.
In the United States, discontent toward Bush’s economical policy, growing critics on the ending of the Gulf War lead to George Bush defeat in november 1992. Despite his stand against Russia and despite the fact that he put an hold on military budget reduction, the Election are won by Bill Clinton with Al Gore as vice-president. Then, before the end of his mandate, he gets the UN security council, including Russia, to approve resolution 794 concerning Somalia. As a result, a coalition of UN peacekeapers led by the US form the UNITAF and, on december 4, US military forces land in Somalia.
In Venezuela, the February 1992 coup, led by Hugo Chávez, overthrows the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Supported by a majority of the population, several military units seize a number of large cities (Valencia, Maracaibo and Maracay). In the meantime, a number of military units take position in Caracas and intercept Pérez while the president is returning from an overseas trip. Pérez is taken into custody and Chavez broadcast a tape calling for general uprising. As a result, everywhere in the country, crowds demonstrate in favour of the coup and, in a matter of 24 hours, most of the army rally behind the Putchists. In March, Hugo Chavez is elected president with a large majority. Implementing a policy inspired by socialism, he is soon pointed out as a threat to democracy by the US administration. The new Venezuelan regime builds strong political ties with Cuba and turns to Russia for political and military support.

Last edited by Mohoender; 09-13-2009 at 09:28 AM.
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Old 09-13-2009, 09:32 AM
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Default A bit of history (1993-1995)

In his inaugural address, President Clinton declares that "Our democracy must be not only the envy of the world but the engine of our own renewal. There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America." Then, shortly after taking office, the US president turns most of its attention toward internal matters. Changes are made to the US health care policy, gay rights are improved and a strong support is given to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in order to have it ratified by congress.
On the international scene, less political attention is given by US administration to what is happening in Russia and in the Balkans. Nevertheless, military expenditures are maintained and several ships that should have been put out of commission are put in reserve instead.
Similar actions are taken among many countries in the West. France increases the number of active units among its military branches and accelerates the work on several military programs. Germany keeps reorganizing its forces and the Soviet equipments refitting program is extended. Else, in countries such as Sweden and United Kingdom, equipments that were to be scrapped are put in storage. However, the German economy shows some signs of slow exhaustion, especially in the East, and radical right wing political organizations swell in membership while violence against foreign workers and handicapped Germans escalates. Germany's government responds weakly, choosing to compromise with the right, and passes a strict series of immigration laws which are widely compared to the Nazi "race laws" of the 1930s. Italy, on the other hand, does not engage in any military program as it is still shaken by political scandals and instability. More politicians resign from office and the political crisis is accompanied by increasing economical problems.
In the meantime, the neo-communist government of Russia also rebuilds the army and a heavy modernization plan is enforced. Surprisingly, the population seems to be widely supporting this despite some obvious problems. The explanation lay in one of the first measure taken by the new government: army units are dispatched to monitor several production plants and the transportation network. As a result, despite the strain on the country, the population doesn’t suffer from privation and, in fact, the access to industrialized goods improves. Tensions continue with Belarus and Ukraine as Moscow still refuses to recognize their independence but no aggressive action is taken by either side. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh War, a continuing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is still very active and marked by a number of successes on the side of Armenia. As a consequence, Azerbaijan president Abülfaz Elçibay is overthrown by a military coup in early summer and the former leader of Soviet Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev rise to power.
Fighting continues in the former republics of Yugoslavia and becomes increasingly bitter. There is now no talk of reunifying the country; instead ethnic groups fight bitterly for as large a slice of territory as possible. Local militia deal ruthlessly with the people of other ethnic groups living in their regions and massacres are numerous from all sides.
Outside Europe several event are also marking this year bringing both hope and fear. Concerns are expressed toward Iraq and North Korea. The first is hit several times by tomahawks: in January, when it deploys troops near Kuwait and, in June, after an alleged assassination attempt on former US president George Bush. The second benefits from an increasing support from Moscow and, toward mid-summer, Pyongyang withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. However, hope is carried by China and Israel. Jiang Zemin the new Chinese president engages more economical reforms and the path toward market economy accelerates. Then, in September, PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shake hands in Washington D.C., after signing a peace accord. For the first time, the world can dream of an issue to the conflict in that part of the world.
Finally, the continent that seems to experience the most important changes is Africa. After a referendum, held in April, Eritrea gains independence from Ethiopia and power is assumed by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), a Marxist political party. US distrust that government from the beginning and the authorities of Eritrea turns toward Russia for help and support, opening again the harbour facilities at Masawa to the Warsaw Pact.

Fighting resume in Angola between the UNITA and the governmental forces (MPLA) but this takes a very different direction as the now democratic government is supported by the West. Jonas Sawimbi, leader of the UNITA, faces difficulties as he is cut from his former support but, true to his word ( "I am not communist because it serves no purpose. Nor am I a capitalist. Socialism in this country is the only answer.”), turns to Russia for supply.
In October, Burundi enters a civil war when democratically elected Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, is assassinated by Tutsi extremists and violence breaks out between the two groups. On the same month, a raid on Mogadishu ends with the death of 18 US soldiers and over 1000 somalis.
In South Africa, Chris Hani, an anti-apartheid, activist is assassinated. The murderer escapes but is found dead on the next day. Investigation progress slowly, riots are taking place throughout the country and F.W. De Klerk is increasingly criticized. De Klerk is forced out of office and new elections are organized. The widespread violence that followed hani’s assassination worried the white minority and Ferdinand Hartzenberg, leader of the Konserwatiewe Party van Suid-Afrika, is elected. The ANC is banned, Nelson Mandela is arrested again and, before year’s end, this brings an end to the process that could have led to the end of Apartheid. In addition, the new president declares that South Africa will pursue it’s nuclear porgram.

As the Neo-Cold War shows no sign of heating down, Europe experiences a number of changes. Germany keeps increasing its force structure and divisions that had been kept under strength are brought up to full strength while territorial (reserve) brigade are created. Voters in Finland, Norway and Sweden refuse to join with the newly constituted European Union. In the May elections, the Hungarian Socialist Party led by former Communists win absolute majority in the parliament and Hungary’s first move is to join Warsaw Pact 2, making Hungary the fifth country outside former Soviet borders to join that military alliance. Following this new adhesion to the Warsaw Pact, Moldavia grows worry and, in October, renounces its independence, becoming part of Romania. In Italy, Democrazia Cristiana is dissolved and a coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi is brought to power. It is known as Polo delle Libert* and composed of Lega Nord, National Alliance, Christian Democratic Centre and Union of the Centre. It brings a lot of hope among the population but this is short lived as the government fall when the Lega Nord leaves the coalition in December.
Closer to Russia itself, a ceasefire is reached on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan losing 16% of its territory. Then, President Aliyev, aware of Azerbaijan weakness, joins the R.U.S.S. A few weeks later, in July, the politically unknown Alexander Lukashenko is elected as president of Belarus with 80% of the expressed votes and the republic joins also with the R.U.S.S, putting an end to almost three years of tensions with Russia. From then, a majority of the former Soviet Republics are united again and the only unsettled dispute is that between Russia and Ukraine. Finally, before the end of the year, a war starts in Chechnya and the Russian army is sent to crush the insurgents.
Middle-East is also the location of several events, starting with a civil war that shakes Yemen between April and October. In late April, fighting breaks out near San’a and, on May 21, southern leaders declare secession and establish the Democratic Republic of Yemen under the leadership of Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas. All members in Warsaw Pact 2 recognize the new republic and send supplies. Surprisingly enough, Saudi Arabia, feeling threaten by the reunification of Yemen, support the secessionists and send them large amount of money. Bitter fighting continue for several months until a peace is signed in the Jordan capital of Amman. Yemen is back to the situation that was its before the reunification: The Republic of Yemen rules over the north with its capital at San’a while the Democratic Republic of Yemen rules in the South with its capital at Aden.
Soon after, the beginning of the civil war in Yemen, another civil war breaks out between Kurdish factions in Iraki Kurdistan. Massoud Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party, backed by Iran, launches an attack on Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. As a result, by year’s end, 2000 people had been killed on both sides.

In July, as most of the world is looking at Kurdistan and Yemen, Israel and Jordan sign the Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace, which formally ends the state of war that has existed between the nations since 1948, providing a point of stability in the region.
In Asia, relations between Russia and China continue to improve slightly and both countries agree to de-target their nuclear weapons against each other.
South Africa reasserts its control over Walvis Bay. Tensions are high but the leading party of Namibia (SWAPO) is reluctant to take action despite support from Russia and renounces its claim on the town. Almost at the same time, US troops are withdrawn from Somalia. Another important event takes place in Africa when, in April, both the Rwandan president and Burundi president die when a missile shot down their plane. That attack triggers what is to become the Rwandan Genocide.
All over this year, the entire American continent appears as the most stable area of the world outside what happens in Chiapas. On January 1, riots are starting in the separatist region of Chiapas (Mexico) and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, led by Commander Marcos, backed by Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, start a guerrilla war against the government in Mexico.

In January 1, Austria is the only country to join the European Union while Germany’s more right oriented government starts to back the Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft (Sudeten German Homeland Association) in its claim toward the Czech Republic. This claim is relatively moderate as it calls only for the complete revocation of the Beneš decrees which established the expulsion of Germans from Czekoslovakia after the war. Nevertheless, this brings worries among the Czech population and the Czech government withdraws from the EU adhesion process. In the Balkan, the Croats finally achieve complete victory while fightings continue in Bosnia and herzegovina. At last, on December 14, the Dayton Peace Agreement is signed in Paris and the conflict is brought to its end. Croatia is recognized by Serbia while the Republka Srpska is recognized as one of two main political-territorial divisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A major event, then, takes place in Asia and is known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. This starts when Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui makes a speech, at Cornell, arguing in favor of Taiwan Independence. The PRC is furious with that declaration and launches several military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. These continue all year long up into 1996.
In Africa, the UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia ends in March and Somalia definitely enters a period of chaos. The situation worsens in South Africa where ethnic unrest has grown since the revival of Apartheid. This time it turns to open violence and, while the West officially condemn the repression, several governments secretly back Hartzenberg’s government.
Nevertheless, it’s in the Middle-East that the most striking events take place and the first one concerns Iraq. In January, the CIA manages to negotiate a truce between Kurdish factions and makes contact with Iraqi officers planning an assassination of Saddam Hussein. Plans are made to link this assassination to a Kurdish offensive toward Northern Iraq. This is carried out in early March and Saddam is effectively killed with tank fire while the Kurdish forces make a swift move over Northern Iraq, destroying three Iraqi Army divisions and capturing 5,000 prisoners over only a few days. However, the power vacuum created by Saddam’s assassination allows for an all-out uprising by Shiites under the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr. The Grand Ayatollah is backed by Iran, and his forces make quick gains, securing the south and its oil fields as well as most of Baghdad. When December comes, the country is in a civil war opposing the Kurds and the Sunni on one side to the Shiite on the other side. The second and other major event takes place on November 4 when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated at a peace rally in Tel Aviv.
In Mexico, uprising continues in Chiapas. In February, the Mexican army launches a major offensive but the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) is able to resist and a fair portion of that region escapes central control by the Mexican government. Another offensive is launched in early fall but this is again unsuccessful.
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Old 09-13-2009, 09:40 AM
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Default A bit of history (1996-1998)

Unlike the previous year, 1996 is marked by a new step in the increase of international tensions that will be determinant for the fate of our world.
The crisis between China and Taiwan goes one step further when the USA switch from their relatively neutral posture to a more aggressive one, sending two carrier groups in the area. This shows not only a symbolic gesture towards the ROC, but a readiness to fight on the part of the U.S. Realising the U.S. Navy CVBG's incredible threat to the PLA Navy, PRC decides to accelerate its military build up. Soon PRC orders the Sovremenny Class Missile Destroyer from Russia, a cold war era warship designed to counter the U.S. Navy’s CVB. Then, in mid-December, during the visit to Moscow by Chinese Premier Li Peng, PRC subsequently orders modern attack submarines (Kilo Class) and warplanes (Su-30MKK2) to counter the U.S. Navy's CVBG while negotiation starts on a treaty to be signed next year. On the other hand, PRC attempts at intimidation through military tests and exercises also lead to the strengthening of military ties between the U.S. and Japan, increasing the role Japan would play in defending Taiwan.
Another important event occurs in Asia when, on September 18, a North Korean Sang-O class submarine runs aground in South Korea. Despite, numerous protestations from Pyongyang and from the international community, the crew are described as spys by South Korea and killed by the South Korean military. This puts an end to recent reconciliations efforts and North Korea applies for membership in Warsaw Pact 2.
Germany’s intervention on behalf of the Sudeten claims shows its impact during the May 1996 elections of the Czech Republic. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia gains a majority of the seats, Filip Vojtech forms the new government while Václav Havel is forced to resign in July. In September, the Czech Republic joins Warsaw Pact 2. In Romania, sole eastern country to remain outside of Russia’s influence, the government issues a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. The Hungarian government protests the mistreatment of these people and, finally, diplomatic relations with Romania are suspended.
Since the fall of Berlusconi’s coalition in Italy, political instability remained the norm all over 1995 and this result in the surprising outcome of the April Elections. The Lega Nord gets almost 25% of the vote, gaining no less than 138 deputies and 67 senators as well as a majority of seats in all northern regions with the exception of Emilia-Romagna. Almost Immediately, Umberto Bossi, leader of the Lega Nord, reveals that his aim is the secession of Northern Italy under the name Padania. This becomes a reality when the two other politcal coalitions (L’Ulivo and Polo delle Libert*) start to break up after summer. Popular demonstrations and riots plague the northern part of Italy from October to November and the secession is effective on November 26. With a large popular support and most of the Italian military siding with it, Padania quickly gains international recognition and an Italian National Conference is to be held in January 1997.
In Northern Ireland, the IRA ceasefire that has been in effect since 1994 comes to an end and several bombings take place. Elsewhere, in the Basque region of Spain, the failure of peace talks between ETA and the government is immediately followed by a new increase in ETA’s activities. That culminates with the assassination of the conservative candidates José Mar*a Aznar López right before the election. Elections are cancelled; Felipe González Márquez is confirmed in office by the Congreso de los Diputados while a state of emergency is declared. Failure of negotiations with rebellious movements does also happen outside of Europe, in the Philippines where peace talks with the Moro National Liberation Front come to a brutal end and in Guatemala where negotiation with the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union is suspended. Russia, however, meets with success in Chechnya but this is gained only after a long bloody offensive lasting from January to May. The only true success comes from the finalization of the Chapultepec Peace Accords that had brought peace to El Salvador back in 1992. By the end of the year, rebel movements in various parts of the world are becoming increasingly active.

In the Middle-East, the Iraqi civil war continues but the Shiite, taking over the regular units of the Iraqi army and getting more support from Iran, asserts their control over Baghdad and over most of the southern half of the country. Consequently, they have their hand on most of the oil and this allows for a fairly important influx in cash. An Islamist Republic is established over Shiite’s controlled territory and Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr becomes the head of state. In the meantime the Kurds and the Sunni minorities, backed by the Iraqi Republican Guard continue the fighting. They are receiving an indirect support from the USA and supplies are coming in through Israel and Jordania. As a matter of fact, Clinton’s administration first plan to supply them through Anatolia but the deep distrust existing between the Turkish and Kurdish governments prevents this. In addition, on April 6, Turkish authorities launch “Operation Hawk”, an offensive against rebels from the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey.
Africa also gets its share. Colonel Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara deposes the first democratically elected president of Niger in a military coup. Fighting breaks out in Monrovia, Liberia, between various rebel factions and the faction led by Charles Taylor comes on top. Unrest continues in South Africa and, despite this being met with increasingly brutal force, the neighbours and the world remains silent. In November, the vice-governor of South Kivu Province in Zaire orders the Banyamulenge to leave the country on penalty of death and they erupt in rebellion. Anti-Mobutu forces combines to form the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Zaire (AFDL). The AFDL receives the support of the leaders of African Great Lakes states, particularly Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda while many elements of the Zairian Army joins Laurent Désiré Kabila as he marches from eastern Zaïre on Kinshasa.
Despite the various continuing tensions, the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta see the participation of every nation in the world. Nevertheless, this is not enough to allow Clinton to win the presidential election. His continuous focus on welfare reform is increasingly seen as out of date by the population and his action of the Iraq Civil War is perceived as a failure by most. Many US citizens are now thinking that it only led to a strengthening of Iran. As a result, Clinton is defeated by an unexpected Republican candidate: Steve Forbes and his co-chairman, Pat Buchanan.
On the same day, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's government is dismissed by President Farooq Leghari after widespread allegations of corruption. She is soon replaced by a increasingly military leadership.

Fewer events take place during this year but old tensions continue to grow while new and important ones appear. Nowadays, this year is regarded as the year that triggered everything.
Rebel activity doesn’t slow down all over the world and in one case the rebels gets the upper hand in the ongoing fighting. On March 6, in Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers overrun a military base and kill more than 200. Following this victory, they push their advantage and launch a major offensive that provide them with substantial territorial gains.
In June, China and Russia sign the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, effectively starting an active cooperation in both civilian and military fields. Article 9 of the treaty is seen as an implicit defence pact by the West and this doesn’t go with no consequences. The United Kingdom breaks the agreement that should have handed sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, triggering the First Sino-Western crisis. Nothing happens beyond diplomatic level but UK reinforces its garrison there. The new U.S. administration is equally enraged and engages in a dramatic change of policy. First of all, it pushes NATO to invite Romania and Ukraine to join in 1999. Second, a fair increase in the military budget is voted and several older equipments that were put in reserve are now undergoing refit. Consequently, when the F-22 Raptor makes its first test flight, in September, the program gets more attention and secretary of defence declares that this plane is now intended to enter service in late 1999. At last, Forbes administration gets more deeply involved in the Iraqi Civil War and more supplies are sent to the Kurdish and Sunni factions. Again, the U.S. administration put pressure on Turkey but Ankara continues to refuse the opening of a supply line that would go from Antalya to Irbil.

Later, in September, when Turkey launches an offensive on PKK forces seeking refuge in Northern Iraq, the U.S. oppose this action and ask for a resolution from the UN security council. In addition, the U.S. provides a number of anti-air systems to the Kurds and several Turkish aircrafts are destroyed. Following these events, anti-American protests take place in several Turkish cities and the American embassy at Ankara is hit by mortar rounds in early November. Prime Minister Ahmet Mesut Yilmaz is forced out of office and popular pressure brings back Necmettin Erbakan to office (he was earlier pressured by the military to step down as the leader). On Christmas Eve, the constitution is amended and the country withdraws from NATO. In the meantime, U.S. diplomats succeed in bringing Albania, Greece and Macedonia to the discussion table. As a result, the three countries sign a mutual border agreement that provide some regional stability.
In Western Europe, the Italian National Conference last from January to the beginning of March and results in major changes for the country. Padania effectively gains independence and Umberto Bossi chose Ravenna to be the capital of the new state. This is done for both historical and political reasons: Ravenna had been the other capital city of the Western Roman Empire and Emilia-Romagna only reluctantly agrees to the Italian partition. As a result, the choice of Ravenna is intended to draw more support from that province’s population. While Padania already gained international recognition, the Napoli Republic is created over the southern half of the Peninsula. Ruled by a left-wing coalition named “Neo-Ulivo” and led by Romano Prodi. Both Italian states are immediately admitted to NATO. Finally, the Lazio and Sardigna don’t join with any of the two states and chose independence instead. They are led by Oscar Luigi Scalfaro (former Italian president) who immediately builds strong ties with Vatican City. As a result, that last state quickly becomes known as the “Papal State”.
After failure of a pyramid investment schemes and the loss of 1.2 billion$ invested by the Albanian population, thousands of citizens gather daily, demanding reimbursement. Protests soon turn violent in the south, especially around the port city of Vlora, where numerous residents arm themselves with weapons looted from army barracks. President Sali Berisha declares a state of emergency, but rioting and destruction spread throughout the country, gripping the capital, Tirana, for two weeks. Finally, anarchy sweeps across the country and the southern half of Albania falls under the control of rebels and criminal gangs. On March 11, the members of the Socialist Party win a major victory when their leader Bashkim Fino is appointed prime minister. However, the transfer of power does not stop unrest and, fearing the spread of unrest outside Albania's borders, the United Nations authorize a force of 7,000 to direct relief efforts and to restore order. After the unrest, over 3,000,000 guns are missing, they soon appear on the international market and many are transferred to the Kosovo Liberation Army (UçK).
Russia proposes to recognize Ukraine independence in return for the recognition of Crimea and for the transfer of all nuclear devices that had fallen under control of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is reluctant to accept this as this agreement implies that it definitely gives up claims on Crimea but, undermined by corruption, organized crime and a 60% reduction of its GDP, it finally accepts as the country gains recognition from all Warsaw Pact 2 members in October.
The First Congo War comes to an end in May when Laurent-Désiré Kabila enters Kinshasa, proclaims himself President and changes the name of the country to Democratic Republic of Congo. The situation in South Africa worsens and the country slowly enters a civil war with heavy fighting taking place in the eastern half of the country.

Early this year, the world attention is attracted again toward what is happening in the Balkan Region. UçK attacks suddenly intensify, centered on the Drenica valley area and Serbian police responds to the UçK attacks in the Likosane area. They even pursue some of the UçK to Cirez, resulting in the deaths of 30 Albanian civilians and four Serbian policemen. Then, on March 5, the
Serb police pursues Jashari and his followers in the village of Donje Prekaz. Ultimately, a massive fire fight at the Jashari compound lead to the massacre of a further 60 Albanians, of which eighteen were women and ten were under the age of sixteen.

This event provokes massive condemnation from the western capitals and Pat Buchanan, despite the U.S. State Department listing the UçK as a terrorist organization, states that "This should not be considered internal affair of the FRY". A week later, the USA, France and the United Kingdom ask for a U.N. resolution allowing for a military intervention but this is vetoed by both China and Russia.
On the 24th of March, Serbian forces surround the village of Glodjane, in the Dukagjin operational zone, and attack a rebel compound there. Despite superior firepower, the Serbs fail to destroy the UçK unit which has been their objective. Nevertheless, there are deaths and severe injuries on the Albanian side and U.S. asks again for a UN resolution. When this is refused President Forbes calls for a press conference in Washington. Accompanied by the Secretary of Defence and by the Joint Chief of Staff, he declares that “the situation in Kosovo is posing a risk to regional stability and represents a direct threat to several NATO members”. Unable to get UN backing, the U.S. administration turns to NATO and plans are made for an all-out air offensive on Serbia. Nevertheless, as tactical and strategical difficulties appear, the attack is postponed and it becomes obvious that it will not take place before the end of this year. Then, as fighting continue between UçK and Serbian forces, the western countries involved build up charges on Serbia. By year’s end evidences are brought up of a planned ethnic cleansing by the Serbian authorities and, despite strong denial by the Serbs, these evidences are repeatedly presented to the western public.
After the D8 summit in Istanbul, Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan meets with the Iranian representative. Three weeks later, Turkey and Iran sign a military cooperation treaty also including the newly constituted Islamic Republic of Iraq. As a result, Turkey transfers technologies to Iran, sales several equipments while teams of engineers are sent to help in the modernization of the Iranian military forces.

This move is perceived as a threat by both Israel and the USA which suspend any collaboration that they still had with Turkey. More tensions appear when Turkey signs another agreement with Syria, establishing more friendly relations with that state. This time, the U.S. calls for an embargo on Turkey, followed in this by all NATO members. In retaliation, Turkey closes the Bosphorus to U.S. and E.U. military shipping. Israel, for its part, mobilizes more troops and increases its military presence in Southern Lebanon, also sending more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which soon expends to reach 3000 fighters again.
In August 1998, Kabila dismisses all ethnic Tutsis from the government and orders Rwandan and Ugandan officials to leave the DRC. The two countries then turns against their former client and send troops to aid rebels attempting to overthrow Kabila. Soon, the fall of the capital and Kabila, who had spent the previous weeks desperately seeking support from various African nations and Cuba, seems increasingly certain. Nevertheless, Kabila is saved when fellow members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) respond to Kabila's request for help, soon joined by several more nations: Chad, Libya and Sudan. However, these forces are unable to defeat the rebels, and the situation slowly escalates into direct conflict with the national armies of Uganda and Rwanda that form part of the rebel movement. Outside of Africa, most states remain neutral but Western mining and diamond companies, most notably from the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan supports the Kabila government in exchange for business deals.
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Default A bit of history (1999-2001)

On March 12, Romania and Ukraine join NATO and, two weeks later, the defence organization launches air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, attacking a sovereign state for the first time in its history. The proclaimed goal of the NATO operation is summed up by its spokesman as "Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back". This action doesn’t have the backing of the UN as both China and Russia keep opposing it at the Security Council. In addition, People in some circles are fearful of a Warsaw Pact direct intervention on behalf of Yugoslavia. By April, however, it has become obvious that Warsaw Pact 2 and China do not plan such path of action.
China, also not militarily involved, grants technical support to Yugoslavia and helps Belgrade in his effort to lower the effect of NATO bombings. In addition, since the beginning of the attack, more and more military supplies are shipped through Warsaw Pact members to Belgrade, allowing for a higher level of readiness among Serbian forces: lost fighters are replaced, more modern anti-air units are deployed and, consequently, NATO losses increase slightly. The Serbian resistance is, by many ways outstanding but the situation proves increasingly difficult when NATO refocuses its attack on Serbian ground units.
Nevertheless, the situation evolves again, on May 7, after NATO bombing of the People's Republic of China embassy in Belgrade, triggering the Second Sino-Western Crisis. Three PRC citizens are killed, the Chinese are outraged and popular demonstrations take place in front of U.S. embassy in Beijing and U.S. consulates in other Chinese cities. Two days later, China asks for UN condemnation of NATO but, despite wide supports, this is vetoed by France, UK and US. Then, several members among Warsaw Pact 2 are becoming increasingly worried and, on May 15, volunteer units are mobilized to be sent in Serbia. At the same moment, a wave of demonstrations in western Poland by ethnic Germans supporting NATO intervention is violently suppressed by riot police, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Germany protests and moves several divisions closer to the border.
Galvanized the Serbian will to continue the fight is reinforced and large demonstrations are held in Belgrade in support of the government. As a result, on June 12, the Serbian authorities reject a peace proposal and it becomes obvious that this war will not be ended without a ground offensive. Then, as this slowly starts to be discussed among NATO members, another wave of demonstration in western Poland is again violently suppressed. This time, small groups appear to be equipped with military small arms and Poland claims that the German army is behind this. Berlin denies any involvement with rioters but even more German military units move closer to the border to step up security.

The air offensive continues in the Balkans but loses intensity when evidences of UçK exactions toward the Serb population are released. Despite growing opposition from its citizens, NATO accelerates its work on a ground offensive but remains unable to launch it. Talks are taking place with Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia to allow NATO troops on their respective soils and in early July they results in an agreement from Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia in exchange for membership. Then, the turns of event changes again in mid-July as several border incidents occur between units of the Polish and German armies. Finally, on July 27 elements of the German III Corps cross the frontier in retaliation for what they described as a "full-scale attack" by the Polish 4th Mechanized Division. Within two days Poland and Germany are officially at war.
Despite an official backing of its army, the German government is worried as many in the Bundestag realize that they are far from adequately prepared for a long conflict. The Bundeswehr is an impressive tool but it just finished a period of very rapid growth and rebuilding, many of its units being equipped with tanks and vehicles which have sat idle in warehouses for four or five years. In addition, many fear that the attack will result in a full involvement of the Warsaw Pact. However, Poland doesn’t call for the other member’s help and it seems that the conflict could remain local; the international community feels some relief. By September, the only non-polish units involved are three Russian divisions and several squadrons of the frontal aviation stationed in Poland as part of the Warsaw Pact 2 joint command. The poles are fighting surprisingly well but they are outnumbered by the Germans and the Bundeswehr slowly progress in Polish territory, taking Poznan and Wroclaw in early December.
China is facing unrest in the Xinjiang province after the arrest of several Muslim Ouïghours, two of them being executed on January 28. Following this, several demonstrations are taking place in the regional capital of Urümqi and in several other cities but the PLA quickly move in and the repression is bloody. By early June, the international community account for 300 people killed and at least 5000 arrested. Nevertheless, Warsaw Pact members call for the respect of Chinese sovereignty while Burma and North Korea even express their support. On May 8, Rebiya Kadeer is arrested at Urümqi under the charge of “releasing state’s secret informations”. Following her arrest, her husband, Sidik Hadji Rouzi, is received at the White House while Canada, EU and the US grant him support and push for the formation of the “East Turkestan Government in Exile”. This triggers the Third Sino-Western crisis and, this time, Beijing had enough. Western assets in China are confiscated while western citizens are expelled. In addition, the Chinese government puts an embargo on all exports toward the Western world and, by years end, the consequences are serious. The Chinese government has passed several trade agreements with countries in South America and in Eastern Europe while it turns toward the domestic market but Chinese production has to be reduced by 70%. Millions of Chinese are leaving the cities to the countryside again but resentment is turned toward the West and the PLA soon experiences a fair increase in the number of volunteers wishing to enlist. In addition, the collaboration between China and Russia goes one step further when one of the Kiev-class carriers is transferred to China and renamed Mao Zedong. It is equipped with brand new Yak-141 and part of the crew remains Russian while Chinese seamen and pilots undergo tough and rapid training.
The Western World experiences a terrible economic crisis. With the invasion of Poland, Russia has suspended oil and gas exportations and energy prices are quickly going up. The Chinese embargo results in supply shortages and several goods are increasingly hard to find while inflation rises everywhere. By years end, civilian industrial production is pushed to its maximum, plants are being built and expended in other parts of the world (especially Mexico and Northern Africa) but it is widely understood that the situation will not improve before several months.
In South America, Hugo Chavez calls for a “Pan-Latin American Conference”. It is attended by all Latin American countries plus Cuba with the exception of Brazil, Columbia and Panama. This conference addresses several economical and military issues but doesn’t come up with much outside of the formation of the “Social Union of Latin America” composed by Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. In the meantime, the British forces in Belize are brought up to full strength while US increases its military presence in Honduras and Panama.

Fighting are still taking place in Poland where little gains have been made by both sides. This is especially true because of the tempest “Lothar” that hit Denmark, France, Germany and Switzerland right after Christmas 1999, forcing the German government to put the offensive on hold. However, things are back to normal by mid-February and the offensive is resumed. Still outnumbered, the Poles are showing some signs of exhaustion and the German progression is slowly gaining in speed. However, on March 2, a lost German unit crosses the Czech border near Ostrava and takes a Czech border platoon for a Polish unit. Fighting are short and the Czech are all killed. On the next day, a Czech investigation team find out that three of the border troops had been executed and, on March 5, Prague joins the war soon followed by Bratislava. Moscow answering the call for help issued by the Czech government sends more units and by the end of the month the Bundeswehr is in serious trouble. In addition, reinforced by the Czech, by the Slovaks and by fresh units of the Russian Frontal Aviation the Pact’s air force in the area is now qualitatively and quantitatively a match for the Luftwaffe. The Warsaw Pact forces finally crack the line of German reservists holding the southern flank and cuts north into Germany itself, closing on Berlin. As soon as they get to Germany, a fairly large number of former East German soldiers join with the Russian and form the “Karl Marx Korps”. Heady with victory, claiming that they get support from the East German, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces their intention to occupy and repartition Germany as a guarantee against any type of future aggression.

Claiming that their actions were justified by the military provocations of Poland and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Germany turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debate the prudence of intervention, the US Army crosses the frontier. Within a week, Denmark, Luxemburg and Padania demand that U.S. troops withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British, Canadian, Dutch and Ukrainian forces cross the border, however, while troops from the other members remain in place, still partners in NATO but not yet party to war. On the Warsaw Pact’s side, Hungary refuses to join and declares neutrality allowing supplies to be sent through its territory, nevertheless.
In the Balkans, fighting are continuing and the NATO offensive is to be started in summer, NATO high command planning on a multiple front offensive: A small US corps (including Bosnian, Croatian, French and Italian units from the Napoli Republic) is to attack from the West, Greece is to launch its own offensive from the South while Romania would attack in the East. This change when Albania declares neutrality and mobilizes troops, the only option remaining to the Greek units being to cross through Macedonia. However, when the UçK launches a number of attacks on Macedonia, the Macedonian ambassador’s demands for US assistance are turned down and their government forbid the crossing of their territory. Nevertheless, the attack is launched in early June and Greek units enter Macedonia. Both Macedonia and Serbia are offered membership in Warsaw Pact 2 and accept. On the next day, Bulgaria enters the war while Moscow increases its military pressure on Ukraine as Romania now appears to be their final goal.
Fighting continue to build up in Europe all over summer but the result remain indecisive until late fall when Russian troops, attacking in the far north, make a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. As a result, NATO members which had remained outside of the conflict enter the war and the excellent Arctic-equipped divisions spearheading the Russian attack are unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandoes, French Foreign Legion and U.S. Marines join the battle, the front line moves east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and several elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed. Soon, NATO troops are pushing toward Murmansk and are only stopped 60 miles away from the city by massive counter-attacks conducted with Russian’s third line troops.
At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, and the Russian fleet performs well to western military specialist amazement. The Russians supports their fleet with bombers that prove capable of swarming two U.S. aircraft carriers with a large number of missiles. One of the carrier sink when its magazine explodes while the other is put ashore on the Norwegian coast. The Russians also use much of their submarine fleet (including Delta-class SSBN) in an offensive role and they are responsible for the loss of several NATO vessels, including HMS Illustrious and Foch. At last, receiving reinforcements, the western fleets come out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. Seventy percent of the Russian northern fleet tonnage rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas (Including aircraft carrier Ulianovsk) but several major units such as the Kuznetsov and the battlecruiser Piotr Velikiy rally Murmansk. They continue to represent a serious threat to NATO control over the Atlantic. Moreover, most Typhoon-class SSBN and the Yuriy Dolgorukiy (sole Borey-class SSBN) as well as scattered commerce raiders break out and by year's end raiders are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys.
In the Baltic Sea, while most NATO vessels are fighting off the coast of Norway, various raids are launched against the depleted German harbours. These attacks are conducted using littoral warfare ships and commandoes brought by sea and by air, using fast assault boats, helicopters, and hovercrafts. Most attacks are highly successful and many facilities are badly damaged.
Far from the European theatre, a war erupts in the Caucasus when the Chechens rises and launch an offensive to overthrow the Russian rule in the region. Backed by the Georgian and the Armenian governments, the Chechens are well organized and their attacks are often successful. To everyone surprise, Grozny is quickly taken while Russian units are withdrawing, leaving a fair amount of equipments behind.

In the Middle East, Israel, despite previous promises, doesn’t withdraw from Lebanon. After the assassination of Colonel Aql Hashem (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Tsahal even send more units to the area. Soon, Hezbollah increases its attacks and toward the end of the year, rockets are hitting northern Israel daily.
In July, the Sendaro Luminoso (Shining Path) guerrillas, much like the Chechens, takes advantage of international chaos to make a bid for control of Peru. They do not succeed but they do succeed in wresting about half of the country from central control. They immediately receive support from countries in the region (Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela) while, before new years eve, several South and Central American countries experience varying degrees of political instability. Drug cartels also become increasingly active and put more weight on legal authorities.
In other third world countries, food riots appear and insurgent movements continue to grow in strength, putting a heavy weight on governments. In early fall, a nasty civil war erupts in Nigeria, involving both religious and ethnic issues, and the country’s oil exportation almost come to a stop (oil shortage worsen again). In Central Africa, northern Cameroon and south-western Myanmar, riots turn to Ethnic wars. In South Africa, the bitter civil war continues but, from the beginning of the year, the Western world, in exchange for an access to South African resources, declares that this is strictly an internal problem and put an end to all sanctions.
In the U.S., the presidential elections are most unusual as both Democrats and Republicans support the president in Office. In the outcome, opposed only by a dozen petty candidates, Forbes is re-elected with over 80% of the votes. In the meantime, the heavy losses endured by the navy truly chocked the population and, just after the votes, the secretary of defence is arrested on charge of treason while an unknown Admiral becomes the new Secretary of Defence. In addition, Pat Buchanan resigns as vice-president and Donald Rumsfeld replaces him.

Faced with stalemate in the Far North and a continuing revolt in Chechnya, Russia needs more troops. Most category B readiness divisions are mobilized and sent to the front by mid-year, and almost all of the remaining category A divisions from the Far East frontier garrisons are committed. Many of the low readiness category C divisions are upgraded to category B or mobilized, and for the first time in 50 years the mobilization-only divisions begin training. This is achieved through tremendous efforts from the populations and with help from the Chinese which are sending more and more supplies.
In the Caucasus, the Russian are receiving an increasing number of fresh troops and, by early spring, they launch an attack toward the Chechens but also toward Armenia and Georgia. This offensive is bloody and many reports point out Russian cruelties. Whatever, this meet with a tremendous success and most resistance is silenced within three weeks. In order to elude capture NATO advisors flee through Turkish Kurdistan but they are intercepted by the Turkish army and taken into custody. The Turkish government claims that this is a provocation and, this time, closes the Bosphorus to all NATO shipping, effectively isolating Romania and Ukraine.
Following this, Romanian and Ukrainian commitment to the Balkan front decreases and the Greeks start to blame Turkey for their army’s lack of success. Anti-Turk demonstrations are held all over the country and in Cyprus. Finally, the Cypriot national guard fires at Turkish units and Ankara reacts by sending reinforcements while Greece diverts a number of combat aircrafts to support the island national guard. As fighting increase, Turkey declares war on Greece, attacking in Cyprus and launching an offensive in Thrace and East Macedonia. The Turks are quickly progressing toward Thessaloniki and several Greek units are taken out of the Bulgarian front to face this new threat. At last, Padania concludes a defence pact with Turkey. While Padania is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, Padania declares the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging over Europe, promising to intervene on Turkey’s side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Greece’s favour. Within a week, Turkey declares a naval blockade against Greece and warns world’s shipping that the Aegean is now considered a war zone.

In Romania, when the police shots and kill a man crossing the border with Hungary, the Hungarian government suspends diplomatic relations. The Romanians claim he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces. Three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. However, police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what little remains of Romanian troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests, is ignored, and then declares war.
This conflict remains local, however, and a cease fire is signed within two weeks, Romanian troops withdraw and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers. While this is settled, the front in Romania and Ukraine stabilizes and enters a period of attritional warfare. Russian mobilization-only divisions, largely leg mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armoured personnel carriers, enter the lines. Although the Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the over-aged and ill trained Russian recruits, the manpower difference begins to be felt while both countries are experiencing tremendous supply problems. Finally, with the Warsaw Pact dominating the air and the water all around the Black Sea, the best Russian troops open a corridor dividing Ukraine in two and, by May, they have managed to control a good portion of Southern Ukraine while advanced armoured elements occupy most of Moldavia and progress toward Bucharest and Ploesti.
In the meantime, as Turkey pressure on the Greek left flank in Thrace builds, it becomes clear that, without aid, the Greek Army will have to fall back or be defeated. On June 27th, a NATO convoy, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Greek port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Fleet elements of the Padanian and Turkish Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Thessaloniki, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Padanian and Turks naval bases. On July 1st, Turkey declares war against NATO while Padania, in compliance with its treaty obligations, follow suit on the 2nd. Then, Padanian airmobile, alpine, and armoured units cross the mountain passes into Tyrolia where scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly before being overwhelmed. By mid-month, Padanian mechanized forces are debouching into southern Germany and advanced elements are attacking German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich. In the meantime, other units are slowly pushing toward Zagreb while the Napoli Republic is already reduced to Sicily. For a time, the Padanian armies enjoy tremendous success as most of their opponents are already fully engaged elsewhere. In addition, they have intact peacetime stockpiles to draw on but, as time goes by, they begin feeling the logistical pinch.
As a matter of fact, on the first day of the New Year, the NATO heads of state have declared their support for a Polish government in exile, headed by a committee of Polish émigrés. While the news is greeted with scattered worker uprisings in Poland, the majority of the Polish Army remains loyal to the central government, and open resistance is soon crushed. An underground movement begins forming, however, and by spring small guerrilla bands, leavened by Polish Army deserters, begin to harass Warsaw Pact supply convoys and installations.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Warsaw Pact troops return to the offensive in southern Germany but do not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring, the NATO offensive gains momentum and in April the first German troops cross the frontier into Poland. By June 17th, Warsaw is surrounded, and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.
By late spring, NATO’s Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. The NATO drive in the north has been pushed back in and bogged down on the banks of the Tana River, but the Northern Front commander plans on a bold move to destroy the Russian naval and ground power there. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments.

On June 7th the ground offensive is launched and the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of Northern Fleet supported by what was left of the shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid June, NATO losses are tremendous and, at that moment, two major naval fleet in the world have been shattered.
With the coming of the fall season, as NATO advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-Russian frontier while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw, it becomes obvious to the Russian central command that the still powering up industry of the western countries will soon tip the balance in favour of NATO. Despite the stalemate in the Balkan and in the Arctic and continuing successes in Ukraine, Moscow will certainly have to commit even more troops to the war effort. If victory is not coming quickly, it may even have to draw again on mobilization-only divisions. Then, with Russian industries already working at their best and more equipments still being needed, a new call is made on China for more fresh supplies. Beijing responds favourably and Chinese-made weapons are sent in much larger quantities through the Tran Siberian.
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