Twilight 2020

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

You know this how exactly?
Note the media isn't exactly unbiased...

The western media.

Seriously, though- you guys are intelligent. Are you not following current events? Do you seriously believe Putin's propaganda? I can't believe that we're having this debate.

Anyway, I don't need the media to tell me what Putin's mindset is. Just take a look at his behavior, including but not limited to:

• Russia's seizure (by force) of Crimea
• Russia's continued support of separatists in eastern Ukraine
• Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (according to the CIA, NSA, and FBI)
• Russian defense procurement and spending (the fact that they can't currently afford to purchase the various modern, offensive weapon systems that they want to is largely immaterial- the intent is there)
• Russia's various shows of force, like it's recent staging of Blackjack strategic bombers from Venezuela http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...island-reports
• Russian bombers have been flying right on the edge of Finnish, Swedish, UK, Canadian, and US airspace
• Russia's direct military support of the Assad regime in Syria
• Russia's blockade of Mariupol and seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels
• Russia's militarization of the Arctic http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...improved-bases
• Russia's attempts to woo Serbia https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN12Y1JX

Putin claims that most of this behavior is defensive in nature. He sees NATO and the US as an existential threat to Russia. This is clearly a Cold War mentality. So to is the concept of self-defense through the acquisition of buffer states (like Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, etc.), massive military- conventional and nuclear- strength, and power projection.

Bottom line Leg, are you saying that Putin doesn't long for the days of Soviet (ne Russian) power and influence in Europe and beyond? And you would know this how exactly?

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The western media.

Seriously, though- you guys are intelligent. Are you not following current events? Do you seriously believe Putin's propaganda? I can't believe that we're having this debate.

Anyway, I don't need the media to tell me what Putin's mindset is. Just take a look at his behavior, including but not limited to:

• Russia's seizure (by force) of Crimea
• Russia's continued support of separatists in eastern Ukraine
• Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (according to the CIA, NSA, and FBI)
• Russian defense procurement and spending (the fact that they can't currently afford to purchase the various modern, offensive weapon systems that they want to is largely immaterial- the intent is there)
• Russia's various shows of force, like it's recent staging of Blackjack strategic bombers from Venezuela http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...island-reports
• Russian bombers have been flying right on the edge of Finnish, Swedish, UK, Canadian, and US airspace
• Russia's direct military support of the Assad regime in Syria
• Russia's blockade of Mariupol and seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels
• Russia's militarization of the Arctic http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...improved-bases
• Russia's attempts to woo Serbia https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN12Y1JX

Putin claims that most of this behavior is defensive in nature. He sees NATO and the US as an existential threat to Russia. This is clearly a Cold War mentality. So to is the concept of self-defense through the acquisition of buffer states (like Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, etc.), massive military- conventional and nuclear- strength, and power projection.

Bottom line Leg, are you saying that Putin doesn't long for the days of Soviet (ne Russian) power and influence in Europe and beyond? And you would know this how exactly?

Also the state sponsored assassination by poison and nerve warfare agent of Putin's critics and opponents in Britain, Russia and the Ukraine, and Russian spies trying to hack the evidence from files from chemical weapons labs in the Netherlands and Switzerland.

[ChalkLine]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The western media.

Seriously, though- you guys are intelligent. Are you not following current events? Do you seriously believe Putin's propaganda? I can't believe that we're having this debate.

Anyway, I don't need the media to tell me what Putin's mindset is. Just take a look at his behavior, including but not limited to:

• Russia's seizure (by force) of Crimea
• Russia's continued support of separatists in eastern Ukraine
• Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (according to the CIA, NSA, and FBI)
• Russian defense procurement and spending (the fact that they can't currently afford to purchase the various modern, offensive weapon systems that they want to is largely immaterial- the intent is there)
• Russia's various shows of force, like it's recent staging of Blackjack strategic bombers from Venezuela http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...island-reports
• Russian bombers have been flying right on the edge of Finnish, Swedish, UK, Canadian, and US airspace
• Russia's direct military support of the Assad regime in Syria
• Russia's blockade of Mariupol and seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels
• Russia's militarization of the Arctic http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...improved-bases
• Russia's attempts to woo Serbia https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN12Y1JX

Putin claims that most of this behavior is defensive in nature. He sees NATO and the US as an existential threat to Russia. This is clearly a Cold War mentality. So to is the concept of self-defense through the acquisition of buffer states (like Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, etc.), massive military- conventional and nuclear- strength, and power projection.

Bottom line Leg, are you saying that Putin doesn't long for the days of Soviet (ne Russian) power and influence in Europe and beyond? And you would know this how exactly?

Well, after Gorbachev was promised that NATO 'would not move an inch closer' to Russia, the INF treaty being repudiated on technical grounds, NATO exercises being held constantly on their doorstep, their long time ally Syria being attacked by the west, Ukraine's behaviour (honestly, they're both as bad as each other. Ukraine is not an angel), Venezuela - another longtime ally - being under constant attack by the US and the US expanding to 800 bases world wide and having a war on their border and assaulting Russia's allies everywhere, and finally Russia and Serbia are probably the longest allies that have ties - Russia went into WW1 to save them and almost started a war when NATO attacked them in 1999, I'm not surprised they're sabre-rattling.

When the powers we dislike do anything it is because of dark designs, but when we empire-build it is because we believe in the liberal world order of law despite we consistently - without fail - install worse governments than the ones we outright depose without any legitimacy except 'it was presented to the voters as an ethical move'.

Russia, China etc are not angels in no way shape or form, but it is not they who have been at war for nigh on twenty years with half the world. It's about time for everyone to take a long hard look and take note that it was the USA and it's allies (I include my country) that has plunged this world into perpetual war after the Cold War, a war that we prolonged as long as possible to the point where we almost annihilated life on the planet

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by ChalkLine

Russia, China etc are not angels in no way shape or form, but it is not they who have been at war for nigh on twenty years with half the world. It's about time for everyone to take a long hard look and take note that it was the USA and it's allies (I include my country) that has plunged this world into perpetual war after the Cold War, a war that we prolonged as long as possible to the point where we almost annihilated life on the planet

I agree with you here, Chalkline. I am no American foreign policy apologist. As I pointed out in my last post, a large portion of recent Russian "aggression" stems from atavistic fears the Russians have harbored since the betrayal and existential crisis of Operation Barbarossa. Putin, for one, believes that the best defense is a good offense. That doesn't change the fact that Russia is behaving aggressively in Eastern Europe. To say that the Russians aren't interested in, or capable of, projecting power is simply inaccurate.

To get back to your original question, if you want to start your future T2K with a land war between Russia and the U.S.A., then you needn't look any further than Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All the ingredients are already there.

[Legbreaker]

I'm saying in the west we're subjected to a LOT of propaganda.
Without a reliable source close to Putin himself, everything we think we know is only conjecture. Not a single person on this board really has ANY idea of what Putin thinks, believes and desires. We can make guesses, but we cannot know.

[WallShadow]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I'm saying in the west we're subjected to a LOT of propaganda.
Without a reliable source close to Putin himself, everything we think we know is only conjecture. Not a single person on this board really has ANY idea of what Putin thinks, believes and desires. We can make guesses, but we cannot know.

One guess is that he wants to project an image of a personally macho manly moonshine-drinkin', Inuit-woman-killin', polar-bear-rapin' MAN! (old joke)

[mpipes]

The one thing everyone does know at this point is that Putin was to restore Russia as a first tier world power with closely aligned allies. He knows the former east bloc countries are a lost cause at this point, but he wants historically Russian territory officially part of Russia or closely aligned governments. The most obvious targets for expansion are the Baltic States and maybe Finland. He is not going further into Ukraine without stirring up a lot of trouble at this point.

Taking a step back, I think Russia will concentrate on expanding military influence in the West through sales and work on growing its ties with Syria, Iran, and Venezuela. Cuba is pretty much a write-off at this point, but Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, and Vietnam are all attractive to Russian overtures. As funny as it may sound, I don't think Vietnam is much attracted to closer relations with Russia and instead is looking toward the west, especially the Philippines, New Zealand, Australia and the US. While many see a resurgence in a Russia-China alliance, I think Russia views China as a potential adversary just as much as it does the US and while it seeks to sell weapons to the Chinese, I don't think its goal is an alliance.

[ChalkLine]

I'm sorry if I got a bit strident there guys. I got called a 'Russian appeaser' over at RPG.net and it got my back up