How tough would Germany have been to invade?

[RN7]

Looking at the relative strength of the East and West German armed forces at unification in T2K brings one thought to mind. The size of the combined German armed forces must have scared the pants out of the rest of Europe.

The West German Army numbered 12 NATO sized divisions on mobilisation with many more brigades in the Territorial Army, and another 6 East German divisions with 5 more divisions in reserve excluding police and security troops such as the border guards etc. The combined German forces are huge; 340,000 West German and 120,000 East German regular troops plus 700,000 West German and 300,000 East German reserves, with a mobilised strength of 1,460,000 troops.

The combined equipment levels of the German Army are actually staggering; 9,000 tanks (1,950x Leopard 2, 2,400x Leopard 1, 580x T-72, 650x M48A2G2, 250x M48, 3,000x T-55/54), 1,400 light tanks & anti-tank vehicles (170x PT-76, 770x JPz-90, 162x Jaguar 2, 316x Jaguar 1), 2,000 armoured reconnaissance vehicles (400x Luchs, 300x BRDM-2, 1,360x FUG), 3,300 infantry fighting vehicles (2,100x Marder, 1,200x BMP-1/2), 8,200 armoured personnel carriers (4,000x M113, 1,000 TPZ-1, 3,100x BTR-60/70) excluding hundreds of older vehicles such as the BTR-50. Artillery included 68 Surface-to-Surface Missile launchers (26x Lance, 18x SCUD-B, 24x FROG-7), 830 rocket launchers (250x MLRS, 265x RM-70, 209x LARS, 110x BM-21), 940 self-propelled artillery (226x M110, 30x M107, 585x M109, 85x 2S3) excluding PzH-2000, 1,200 towed field artillery guns & howitzers, 1,340 120mm mortars , 120x 120mm anti-tank guns, 300 light artillery guns and thousands of anti-tank missiles. The Army also had 143 Roland-2 SAM vehicles, 432x Gepard SPAAG, 130x ZSU-23-4 SPAAG and over 1,600 towed AA guns. The Army Aviation had 210x PAH-1 attack helicopters excluding the PAH-2 Tiger which was nearing delivery, 108x CH-53 heavy transport helicopters, 185x UH-1D transport helicopters and over 200 scout and liaison helicopters, while the Luftwaffe could add over 100 UH-1D transport helicopters and the East German air forces could add 50 Mi-24 attack helicopters, 80x Mi-8 transport helicopters and 30 light helicopters.

Although East German Army equipment was overwhelmingly of Soviet origin and its structure and training followed Soviet lines, the East German armed forces were considered to be one of the best elements of the Warsaw Pact's forces and were equipped with some of the Warsaw Pact's finest weapons as well as enormous stockpiles of ammunition. Overall German land forces are comparable in size and inventory levels to both the United States and Chinese Armies, but more concentrated

The German airforce and navy where maybe less impressive compared with contemporary European powers like Britain and France, but where still powerful and large organisations in their own right.

The Luftwaffe had just over 100,000 personnel, with its combat squadrons equipped with about 250 Tornado’s and over 130 older F-4F Phantoms. Over 150 Alpha Jet trainers were also certified to be used in the light attack role and the new Euro-fighter was under development. The Luftwaffe also had a large fleet of C-160 transport aircraft and helicopters. The East German Luftstreitkräfte had 39,000 personnel and nearly the same number of combat aircraft as the Luftwaffe (Mig-21s, Mig-23s, Mig-29s and Su-22s) and a dozen An-26 transports. Many of these aircraft were older types, but air defence squadrons were upgrading to the highly capable Mig-29 in the 1990’s. The Luftwaffe also held the responsibility for the land based tactical air defence of Germany, and controlled over 500 Patriot and I-Hawk SAM missile launchers, in addition to nearly 100 Roland-2 launchers. The Luftstreitkräfte’s large air defence command added another 200 SAM launchers including the highly capable S-300PMU, and many shorter ranged SAM’s. The Luftwaffe also controlled 72 Pershing 1A surface to surface missile launchers which were officially retired from 1991 after the US Army deployed the more advanced Pershing II missile in Europe. However these launchers may still be held in storage.

The navy lacked large surface units but still had a modern fleet of 25 submarines, 7 destroyers, 12 frigates, 40 fast attack craft and 45 mine warfare vessels and a few dozen auxiliaries with some ships held in reserve. The navy also had a large and powerful naval air arm of nearly 200 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters, including about 100 Tornado’s. East German naval units added another 7 frigates, 21 corvettes, 30 fast attack craft, 24 mine warfare vessels, 12 landing ships and nearly 100 aircraft and helicopters. Although many East German naval units were older and short ranged warships, some of the corvettes, fast attack craft and mine warfare vessels were capable ships. Neither the West nor East German navies had marine or naval infantry, but the East German navy possessed 12 landing ships, and two infantry regiments of the East German Army where trained as amphibious landing troops and equipped with BTR-60P amphibious armoured personnel carriers. The East German Navy also controlled the patrol boats of the East German Border Troop’s 6th Border Brigade whose most notable role was to stop emigration to the West. The West German Navy also had a Special Forces unit of commando frogman; Verwendungsgruppe 3402 or Group 3402. Trained extensively in swimming, scuba diving, navigation, close combat, weapons, demolition, mine clearance and parachuting, it had an excellent reputation with strength of about 100 personnel. The East German equivalent was KSK-18. The Navy also controlled 20 Roland-2 SAM systems and 140 towed AA guns.

Prior to unification the West German Border Guard numbered about 20,000 personnel with 16 battalions and the counter-terrorist unit GSG-9. The Border Guards were armed with all sorts of military weapons and about 150 armoured vehicles and their own fleet of 100 helicopters, including 50 UH-1D and Puma/Super Puma transport helicopters, and there was also the Federal Coast Guard with two dozen patrol ships and boat. Excluding the regular police and federal intelligence agencies such as the BKA, BfV and BND the individual German states also had their own readiness police (Bereitschaftspolizei) who were available for riot control. In most states the Bereitschaftspolizei had just one battalion, but some of the larger states had forces organized into regiments equipped with transports, tents, rations, water cannons, armoured vehicles and small arms. Each state police force also has a Sondereinsatzkommando which are German equivalents to police SWAT teams, and some of the larger states have multiple Sondereinsatzkommando units. Equipment varies but all Sondereinsatzkommando units are well trained and armed with a variety of military and Para-military weapons and equipment.

Germany also inherited a large number of armed Para-military police units from its East German cousins, which were independent of East German military control. The East German Border Troops numbered about 50,000 personnel. Until they where reorganised in the late 1980’s they consisted of 19 active regiments and an artillery regiment with many independent companies, armed as light infantry with armoured cars, mortars, machine guns, tear gas, antitank weapons, and fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. East Germany also had a number of large paramilitary police forces that were independent from the Border Troops. The Ministry of the Interior had an armed force of 12,000 personnel who were organised into 21 battalions and equipped with armoured personnel carriers and mortars. The Transport Police also had a force of 8,500 personnel organised into 16 companies and armed with small arms and grenade launchers. The Ministry of the Interior was also responsible for the Working-Class Combat Groups, a militia of 500,000 members equipped with armoured vehicles, mortars, antitank and antiaircraft guns.

Of most note however was the Ministry for State Security, known as the Stasi who also had its own armed force; the 7,000 member Felix Dzierzynski Guard Regiment, which was responsible for protecting government buildings and personnel. The regiment had six motorized rifle battalions, an artillery battalion and a training battalion, armed with FUG armored vehicles, 120mm mortars, antitank and antiaircraft guns and helicopters. The regiment also had its own commando unit similar to the Soviet Army Spetsnaz forces. The Stasi was known to have operated at least eight intelligence departments. The Main Administration for Reconnaissance controlled East German intelligence in West Germany and in all other foreign countries. The Main Coordinating Administration worked with the Soviet and other Warsaw Pact intelligence agencies. The Main Department for Communications Security and Personnel Protection provided personal security for the national leadership and operated a secure internal communications system for the government. The Administration for Security of Heavy Industry and Research and the Main Administration for Security of the Economy protected against sabotage or espionage. The Main Administration for Struggle Against Suspicious Persons controlled the surveillance of foreigners in the country, including the diplomatic community, tourists and official guests. Administration 12 was responsible for the surveillance of mail and telephones, and Administration 2000 scrutinized the reliability of the armed forces personnel and operated a secret network of informants within the East German armed forces. The Ministry of State Security also operated its own penal system that was distinct from that of the Ministry of the Interior.

[Legbreaker]

It'd be a nightmare no doubt, but it's worth questioning the political reliability of a significant percentage of the East German forces. If the questionable elements were kept armed, they'd probably have needed watching over by more reliable units thereby degrading overall performance (perhaps more than if they were simply disbanded).

It's also worth noting that Germany doesn't really need a substantial navy as the situation stood in the T2K timeline. Their allies covered the sea quite well and Germany certainly didn't need to cross any significant bodies of water to keep her troops supplied and reinforced as do Britain and especially the US and Canada. Short ranged coastal vessels should have sufficed quite nicely.

My main concern is keeping all those troops and vehicles supplied if they lost their lifeline to the world - for example if a repeat of WWII occured and the only real "allies" they had were neighbouring countries they'd conquered.

All in all though, with those sorts of military resources at their disposal, it makes a lot of sense that they invaded Poland (in all versions) on their own while the USSR was occupied in China. They certainly appear to have had the manpower advantage especially in V1.0 with the sudden and unexpected loss of East Germany to the West.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It'd be a nightmare no doubt, but it's worth questioning the political reliability of a significant percentage of the East German forces. If the questionable elements were kept armed, they'd probably have needed watching over by more reliable units thereby degrading overall performance (perhaps more than if they were simply disbanded.

For German unification to have happened at the pace it did in T2K there must have been a great deal of collusion between the East and West German militaries going on in secret for a few years before the event. The respective civilian authorities must have been frozen out regarding planned unification, especially the East German security services who would have been the most hostile to it. I'd say that junior officers, NCO’s and servicemen of the East German military where fully integrated into the new unified Bundeswehr, although senior officers and known sympathisers with the former regime were screened and monitored by German military intelligence in the period leading up to unification, and many were arrested during and in the weeks after unification.

The allegiances of the East German Border Troops would have been heavily scrutinized by German military intelligence services due to its close links with the DDR government. Their barracks may have been isolated and locked down and in some cases even assaulted by the German Army during the unification of Germany. Many East German border troops were probably integrated and retrained into the BGS after full background checks, although many officers may have been retired and replaced by West Germans.

However other East German security troops such as the Stasi were likely to have been rapidly isolated and disbanded, probably forcibly by German troops who wanted to eliminate any potential threat to unification. Resistance to German unification in East Germany would have been heaviest from Stasi personnel. Some probably linked up with Soviet forces retreating from Germany or stayed behind acting as agent-provocateurs or sabateurs with Soviet assistance in the months after unification. Many may have reformed their original units fighting under Soviet command, even trying to recruit German prisoners from POW camps, although many others demobilised personnel may after security screening have been allowed to reenlist in the German Army or the Border Guards if they had specialised training.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

It's also worth noting that Germany doesn't really need a substantial navy as the situation stood in the T2K timeline. Their allies covered the sea quite well and Germany certainly didn't need to cross any significant bodies of water to keep her troops supplied and reinforced as do Britain and especially the US and Canada. Short ranged coastal vessels should have sufficed quite nicely.

The primary mission of the German navy was to block the Baltic approaches and prevent the deployment of the Soviet Baltic Fleet into the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The navy also contributed to protection of NATO sea routes by helping to control the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and carried out intelligence and mine countermeasure operations, and was well equipped for antisubmarine and anti-ship warfare. The German navy regularly participated in NATO exercises and had much experience in operating with other NATO forces including American and British naval forces. At unification the navy would also have become more focused on protecting the German Baltic coast and naval operations in the Baltic Sea.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

My main concern is keeping all those troops and vehicles supplied if they lost their lifeline to the world - for example if a repeat of WWII occured and the only real "allies" they had were neighbouring countries they'd conquered.

I don't know about this one. They did invade Poland but probably because the Soviets where attacking them from Poland. German forces where in Austria as well, but Austria was neutral and invaded by the Soviets.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

All in all though, with those sorts of military resources at their disposal, it makes a lot of sense that they invaded Poland (in all versions) on their own while the USSR was occupied in China. They certainly appear to have had the manpower advantage especially in V1.0 with the sudden and unexpected loss of East Germany to the West.

It probably was the ultimate Russian nightmare. The Chinese in the East and the Germans in the West.

[Legbreaker]

I tend to think the whole reunification of V1.0 had to be kept secret and only those absolutely VITAL to the operation would have been trusted with even an inkling of what whas in the works. If just one person was to say something to the wrong ears, then the Soviets could have come down HARD on them making the whole thing nothing more than a stillborn pipe dream.
The more people who know a secret, the more likely it is somebody will slip.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I tend to think the whole reunification of V1.0 had to be kept secret and only those absolutely VITAL to the operation would have been trusted with even an inkling of what whas in the works. If just one person was to say something to the wrong ears, then the Soviets could have come down HARD on them making the whole thing nothing more than a stillborn pipe dream.
The more people who know a secret, the more likely it is somebody will slip.

For an operation of this magnitude to succeed, particularly one regarding the then very politicaly sensative political issue of German unification, most of the senior German commanders on both sides must have been aware of it and have been in collusion. The whole concept of German unification at this time throws the established world order of the Cold War which had existed since 1945 into disarray. The division of Germany was the lynchpin of both NATO and Warsaw Pact political and military strategy, and Germany had by far the largest concentration of air and land forces in the world. The inner German border was the trigger for any future East-West conflict, and both NATO and Warsaw Pact training and doctrine was largely dominated by it. Nuclear weapons had to a great extent neutralised the latent industrial and military power of a unified Germany, but despite all the rhetoric about future German unification from both sides, Russia, Britain, France, the rest of Europe and even America where all content with the status quo as German unification in the context of the Cold War world seriously altered the balance of power in Europe.

[rcaf_777]

IRL the German Government sold almost all of it of east german equipment, I belive they still have the MIGs flying?, here is a link if you want to read more

http://www.bits.de/public/bicc95.htm

An intresting read is table 3 which show what equipment was transfered to US and Allies durring Desert Storm, The US apparently got 18,000 Water Bottles?

I guess most of the transfers to the US ended up going to the Arab Troops still using some Soviet, IE Egpyt and Syria?

Anyway Food for Thought

[RN7]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

IRL the German Government sold almost all of it of east german equipment, I belive they still have the MIGs flying?, here is a link if you want to read more

http://www.bits.de/public/bicc95.htm

An intresting read is table 3 which show what equipment was transfered to US and Allies durring Desert Storm, The US apparently got 18,000 Water Bottles?

I guess most of the transfers to the US ended up going to the Arab Troops still using some Soviet, IE Egpyt and Syria?

Anyway Food for Thought

I think they sold most of the East German navy to Indonesia as well, and Poland got 22 of the the last 23 Mig-29's in 2003 for 1 Euro per aircraft, one was kept by the Luftwaffe as a display aircraft.

[B.T.]

Some thoughts from a German perpective:

1) One should not forget, that there was a lot of distrust between East- and West-Germans. In a situation, where the two different German armies were to be amalgated, thie distrust would certainly cause massive problems: The guys, watching your back, were "the enemy" some months ago
2) Let's face it: The war in Central Europe was to be a massive clash of arms. It was apparent, that at one point in the relative near future, nuclear weapons were to be used by one side or the other. And both German armies lacked such weaponry. Both German armies had to rely on their allies. Period.
3) The tactics of the German forces in East and West were very different: The Bundeswehr was optimised for a defensive strategy. The NVA had been trained for offensive operations in soviet style. The two parts of the reunified German army had to do a lot of finetuning.

IRL the majority of the higher ranking NVA officers had to leave the armed forces. And (again IRL) it took years, to overcome the distrust between "Ossies" and "Wessies". From a personal point of view: I don't think that a war shortly after reunification would have solved these problems.

Last point: A lot of the equipment of the NVA was of poor quality, compared to the items in the West. Therefore those were disbanded. Allthough the reunified German army of the T2k ver.1 timeline was huge, it's equipment was (partly) rubbish.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by B.T.

Some thoughts from a German perpective:

1) One should not forget, that there was a lot of distrust between East- and West-Germans. In a situation, where the two different German armies were to be amalgated, thie distrust would certainly cause massive problems: The guys, watching your back, were "the enemy" some months ago

Well unification happened in T2K all the same. Any "distrust" between East and West Germans was based on political idealogy not national rivalty, and in the case of the East Germans an idealogy imposed on them by the Soviet Union in 1945. In both the mid-1970's and 1980's the East German government conducted polls and studies that showed three-fourths of the population supported closer contacts between East Germany and West Germany, and that 80% of the population considered themsleves part of an all-German nation, and that over 50% of the population supported eventual unification, particulary among the younger segement of the population. By the mid-1980s, common influences on national consciousness continued to exist and East Germans had easy access to Western media, particularly West German television, and the influx of Western visitors since the early 1970s has ensured that a sense of a common German identity was preserved.

Even before the opening of the Berlin Wall signs of deterioration in East German morale was evident. Once the Wall opened, reservists and conscripts fled the country and disappearing into West Germany. Authority and morale fell apart as ordinary soldiers rebelled against strict discipline and communist idealogy.

Originally Posted by B.T.

2) Let's face it: The war in Central Europe was to be a massive clash of arms. It was apparent, that at one point in the relative near future, nuclear weapons were to be used by one side or the other. And both German armies lacked such weaponry. Both German armies had to rely on their allies. Period.:

Well they weren't alowed to develop nuclear weapons, but tactical nuclear weapons would have had to be used to either force a breakthrough or stem an advance by either side. With a combined Germany at war with the Soviet Union the Soviets would have had to use tactical nukes in Central Europe as German land forces were formidable.

Originally Posted by B.T.

3) The tactics of the German forces in East and West were very different: The Bundeswehr was optimised for a defensive strategy. The NVA had been trained for offensive operations in soviet style. The two parts of the reunified German army had to do a lot of finetuning.

The NVA was trained to combine with other Warsaw Pact forces in a powerful and sudden assault against NATO in central Europe. The main role of the NVA Army was to fight separately as a national army or as part of a Soviet front, the NVA navy closely coordinated with the Soviet Baltic Fleet and Polish navy would have probably been absorbed by the Soviet Baltic Fleet in wartime. The NVA air force is air defense, and in this function the force is completely integrated into the Soviet air defense network. To a limited extent, it could supply close air support to ground forces.

Originally Posted by B.T.

IRL the majority of the higher ranking NVA officers had to leave the armed forces. And (again IRL) it took years, to overcome the distrust between "Ossies" and "Wessies". From a personal point of view: I don't think that a war shortly after reunification would have solved these problems.

It might have if the Soviet were lobbing nukes at them.

Originally Posted by B.T.

Last point: A lot of the equipment of the NVA was of poor quality, compared to the items in the West. Therefore those were disbanded. Allthough the reunified German army of the T2k ver.1 timeline was huge, it's equipment was (partly) rubbish.

It was as good or better than most of the rest of the Warsaw Pact.

[James Langham]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I tend to think the whole reunification of V1.0 had to be kept secret and only those absolutely VITAL to the operation would have been trusted with even an inkling of what whas in the works. If just one person was to say something to the wrong ears, then the Soviets could have come down HARD on them making the whole thing nothing more than a stillborn pipe dream.
The more people who know a secret, the more likely it is somebody will slip.

An interesting what if would be the West Germans leaking the info to the Soviets to give an excuse to cross the border to help when the Soviet crack-down occurs. This MIGHT have been a contingency plan.