The moments before the beginning of the Twilight Age

[Marc]

The reading of the Year of the Zombie thread suggested me a field in the Twilight world that deserves some discussion.
Most of the movies or books dealing with the matter of a nuclear war play with the threat of a total, non-limited atomic exchange and its consequences. Some of them (The Wargame, Threads, The day after...) depict the citizens caught totally unaware of the ongoing end, though some clues about an unstable international background are given (Threads). In that situation we will enter to the apocalypse in a few hours, perhaps ignoring that someone has pressed the button until you see the first mushroom cloud through your window. Under a certain point of view your options will be limited. If you are not dead and you are still able to decide, you can kill yourself or you can try to survive. The world and the civilization as you knew them have disappeared in the blink of an eye. No ambiguities, little hope and a lot of desperation...

But the situation depicted in the different Twilight timelines is not like this. Following with the timeline of v2, international tensions escalate, war erupts and, in the summer of 1997 the first nuclear devices are used. Since the very first moment and before the first nuclear strike, a good part of the population in both sides will be conscious of the terrible consequences of such a conflict. Of course, it depends about the available information. But if we take as example the average European citizen of the 90's, even if the available information when at war would be filtered or adulterated, he/she had enough information in peace time to be terribly scared about the possible consequences of a Third World War. They will not be, for example, the naive citizens that enlisted enthusiastically and strongly support their respective governments at the first stages of the First World War. And the shadow of a conventional war evolving to a nuclear exchange will be present months ago the first use of any nuclear device. It seems easy to relate this fear with the retreat of some former members from NATO in 1996.

And then, in July 9th 1997, the first tactical nuclear weapons are used... The ghost is now a palpable reality. At first the targets are the armies in the front line. But nothing or little is explained about the reactions of the people at home. There's always a certain inertia in our societies that keep things working to the same direction for a time. But even before the first use of nuclear weapons against non-military targets a lot of the old things will not make sense. I think that some systems and countries would simply collapse. I know little about economy but our western system is shaking right now for some insignificant cause in comparison with the Twilight situation. Riots, absurd political measures, growing rumors that cause massive displacements of people fleeing away from the proximity of a possible nuclear target, scarce availability of fuel, martial law... My favourite chapters in Stephen King's "The Stand" are those that explain all the bizarre situations in the collapsing world.

So, once the world has ended things are clear. But what happens when you still has a little hope that the situation could improve, when you still feel some confidence about that nobody would press the button? What will happen in our countries when nukes begin to fall "sparingly at first" in the front lines?

Mmmmm...And interesting setup for very challenging campaign. Perhaps with the characters being a group of cops while everything is falling apart?

[Raellus]

A very interesting question and premise for an unconventional Twilight Campaign, Marc.

I see hoarding being a problem at first- bottled water, batteries, canned food, etc. And as certain products become more scarce, a black market would develop. A certain level of criminal behavior usually coallesces around black markets. With increasing shortages, food riots could ensue.

I see people with the means to do so moving to out of the way country estates, mountain cabins, etc. At first, this would take place in areas threatened by the conventional fighting. I see some folks taking advantage and trying to loot vacated properties. In response, perhaps a certain level of vigilantiism would develop where much of the citizenry is armed (I'm thinking of the U.S.). Others I see just sitting tight and hoping for the best. A great and relatively modern example is the "evacuation" of Eastern Prussia as the Red Army steamrolled into Greater Germany.

With the onset of tactical nuclear strikes, I see some cities vacated in a panic, highways clogged with cars and busses and such. At this point, you'd either see strangers banding together to help one another OR people looking out only for themselves and taking advantage of others. It would probably be a bit of both. I guess this question boils down to whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about human nature.

I think you raise a really interesting point about the Twilight War being really unpopular with the general public. Maybe you'd see draft riots.

In the U.S. at least (I don't know enough about other countries' reserves/mobilization systems), a lot of law enforcement personel are military reservists or National Guard members. With the war picking up speed, a lot of them would be recalled to active duty. This would leave law enforcement agencies with fewer bodies to deal with the increasing load of problems briefly touched on above. It would not be pretty. Once again, in the U.S. at least, I see crime rates going up and vigilantiism popping up to deal with it.

[Webstral]

I'm on my second draft of a piece that dovetails into this thread. I've been talking about the run-up to the November 1997 attacks on CONUS. I've been focusing on how people have reacted to nuclear scares and how the scares have affected readiness. It's quite timely that you have been thinking about similar sorts of things, Marc.

Webstral

[natehale1971]

i've been thinking of doing a series of news reports leading up to the Twilight War, and use those news reports that detail the various evacuation plans to get people out of the cities that gave the soviets all the intell that they would have needed to make the TDM as devistating as possible. you just know that the media would have reported on the evac plans for civlians AND for the government officials (like the plan to get the federal government burecrats out of DC in under 15 minutes that we learned about a few years ago).

anyone know where i could find some examples of the kinds of reports?

I have been thinking of using the post-9/11 news reports to cover the post-TDM news reports... But i still need some help with the build-up to the TDM exchanges.

And i am thinking of continuing the reports through the Summer Offensive. I am thinking of news reports being done similar to how they had been done during the second world war with news reel reports and of course the revival of the newspapers.

[Cdnwolf]

Hmmm where to go where to go....

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/

http://www.ap.org/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

[natehale1971]

I didn't mean that... I was asking for the kinds of reports that would exist.. I'm sorry that i didn't make it clear.

I'm asking for examples of the kinds of reports that would be made, that would be taking advantage of the situation to either promote fear to retain viewers, or to try and downplay the situation in an effort to keep the people at home calm.

i'm looking for some of the reports prior to the entry of the US in WW2 as examples. such as the reports before 7 Dec 1941, and the aftermath of the attack on Pearl. Or even some of the reports after 9/11 detailing prepreations being taken by the government for evacuation, ect.

I remember growing up with nuke attack drills in elementary school during the 1970s, and was wondering if anyone remembered any of the reports the media did on covering evac / contingency plans the government took.

Heck, I still remember the Greenbrair report going out in the late-1980s... I just can't find them online. my google-fu isn't as strong as it once was thanks to the fact i'm not sleeping right.

[Jason Weiser]

Between canon (Allegheny Uprising and Armies of the Night, as well as Urban Guerilla), and the stuff written in the media article I put out a while ago, there might be enough to put some meat on the bare bones of what's out there.

[natehale1971]

It was your article that gave me the inspiration for a T2k news reports thread.

I think we can get something going... I just need to get the work on the timeline done. And i might have to ask everyone here for their advice on how things might get reported.

I found this just a couple minutes ago...

A Landing Operation in Denmark
The Polish Military's Losses in the First Phase of a Warsaw Pact Offensive Were to Reach 50 Percent
by Paweł Piotrowski
first published in Wprost [Warsaw], no. 25, 23 June 2002, p. 82-84.

The idea of creating a new front within the Warsaw Pact in the northern segment of the western theater of war was born after the October 1956 watershed, when Poles replaced Soviet officers in the leadership positions of the General Staff of the Polish People's Army. To Gomułka's team, the creation of a national front manifested the sovereignty of the People's Republic. But Moscow viewed Poland's aspirations with distrust. Even though the Politbureau had approved the decision in 1958, it was not until 1961 that the Kremlin agreed to this form of involvement in the Warsaw Pact for Poland.

A Polish delegation went to Moscow then to collect a handwritten directive from the USSR's minister of national defense, Rodion Malinovsky, which spelled out the Polish Front's mandate. On the basis of this directive, the Poles drew up a front operational plan for their People's Army. The Soviet side charted the operational direction of the front and its basic parameters.

The Rhine
According to the Polish Front's operational plan, codeword OP-61, the First and Second Armies formed by the Pomeranian and Silesian Military Districts were to attack first. It was assumed that the attacking NATO forces (it was always the imperialists who started wars) would be stopped by Soviet units stationed in the GDR. At the same time, units of the Polish Front would reach their areas of concentration in northern Poland and the GDR, where a developed military infrastructure and ammunition, fuel, and equipment warehouses were located. The Polish attack would head from western Mecklenburg toward Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein. In two or three days, the attacking armies would break up NATO's Jutland Military Corps, reach the Elbe and the Danish-German border.

In the second phase of the offensive, the Polish Front troops would cross the Elbe and reach the Rhine and Moselle Rivers across the plains of Lower Saxony and Holland. The General Staff's planning did not go beyond this line, since the front's subsequent goals would be set by the Warsaw Pact leadership. The Fourth Army deployed by the Warsaw Military District had a different mission. In peacetime, its units were heavily reduced (below 30 percent of the strength planned for the eventuality of war). Their equipment also differed significantly from that of the Pomeranian and Silesian Districts. Compensating for this disadvantage would be nuclear strikes accompanied by concentrated acts of sabotage and propaganda. The Fourth Army's mission was to mobilize quickly, deploy its troops over a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers (from northern Mazovia and Warmia to Hamburg), make the transition "from marching" to fighting and controlling the Jutland Peninsula, the Danish isles, and then occupy Denmark.

The Danish Straits
The Navy was to support the northern wing of the front attacking along the coast. The first exercises of this "teamwork between naval and land forces" were conducted in 1954. At that time, the naval forces were stronger than what was planned for mobilization. This changed in subsequent years, as less investment was made in the navy than in the other armed forces. After the Warsaw Pact was founded in 1955, cooperation was built up with the USSR's Baltic Fleet and the GDR navy. From the early 1960s on, these forces together formed the United Fleet. Its main goals were to dominate the Baltic Sea, cooperate on a landing operation on the Danish isles, and secure free access to the North Sea.

A landing on the Danish coast was prominent in plans being made in 1961-63. Selected for this mission were the Seventh Landing Division ("blue berets") and the Sixth Air-Landing Division ("red berets"). These units were being prepared for an air-sea operational landing on the Danish isles located between Great Belt and Øresund (including Zealand). The Polish divisions would be backed up by the Baltic Fleet, Soviet air-landing and marine units, and a landing regiment of the National People's Army of the GDR.

In 1962-73, Polish shipyards constructed 23 ships intended for the Second Brigade of Landing Ships stationed in Świnoujście. Plans were also made to buttress the landing forces with ships mobilized from the civilian fleet. After gaining control of Zealand, the landing forces could be used to launch an attack on southern Norway, around Oslo.

The Nuclear Sword
From the 1960s, the leadership of the Warsaw Pact attached great importance to equipping its armies with missiles, considered the best carriers of nuclear warheads. In 1961-68, the Polish army formed four artillery brigades equipped with operational-tactical rockets and fourteen artillery units armed with tactical missiles. In virtually every exercise, the concentrated use of nuclear weapons presaged success. In an offensive operation, the exercises assumed the use of nuclear strikes of various magnitudes (on the territory of the FRG alone, there were to be some 100 of them). Every attacking unit would use 30-40 operational-tactical missiles (with a 300 km range), 50-60 tactical missiles (with a range of up to 65 km), and conduct 6-15 nuclear bombardments.

If the enemy used nuclear weapons, the operational plans expected major losses. Estimates made in the early 1970s projected operational troop losses of 48-53 percent in the first front operation.

Plans for the Polish Front continued to be perfected until the end of the Warsaw Pact. It is fortunate that we managed to avoid seeing our troops march in the streets of Copenhagen or Hamburg, transformed into a radioactive desert. At the same time, the streets of Warsaw, Cracow, and other Polish cities would have looked similar.

A Polish Nuclear Attack
"It is desirable to consider (...) nuclear attacks on such centers as Hannover or Brunswick, Kiel and Bremen. The destruction of these cities will likely cause a complete disorganization of political life, the economy, etc. It will significantly influence the creation of panic in areas of nuclear strikes. The exploitation of the effects of strikes by our propaganda may contribute to the spread of panic among enemy armies and populations (...). In order to exclude Denmark from the war as quickly as possible, nuclear strikes should be launched at Esbjerg (an important strategic point in the NATO system) and Roskilde (Zealand Island), and subsequently a widespread special propaganda action aimed at deepening the existing panic should be conducted to warn Denmark's troops and civilian population of the consequences of further resistance and the threat that, in the event of continuation of the war, further atomic strikes will occur."
(Excerpt from a presentation by the commander of the Polish Front, General Zygmunt Duszyński, in 1961)

Paweł Piotrowski works as a historian in the Wrocław division of the Institute of National Remembrance, specializing in the military affairs of the Polish People's Republic.

+ + + +

soviet war plans for nordic states:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...unearthed.html

+ + + +

some news reports

<the link in the article didn't work for some reason>

there is a useful site for cold war acrhieves of soviet bloc

http://www.php.isn.ethz.ch/

[Littlearmies]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I see hoarding being a problem at first- bottled water, batteries, canned food, etc. And as certain products become more scarce, a black market would develop. A certain level of criminal behavior usually coallesces around black markets. With increasing shortages, food riots could ensue.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I see people with the means to do so moving to out of the way country estates, mountain cabins, etc. At first, this would take place in areas threatened by the conventional fighting. I see some folks taking advantage and trying to loot vacated properties. In response, perhaps a certain level of vigilantiism would develop where much of the citizenry is armed (I'm thinking of the U.S.). Others I see just sitting tight and hoping for the best. A great and relatively modern example is the "evacuation" of Eastern Prussia as the Red Army steamrolled into Greater Germany.

Here in the UK there are an awful lot of cottages in West Scotland that have been abandoned (to the extent that some local schools are no longer seen as viable - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/...ds/6964894.stm - )there is a healthy little industry refurbishing these buildings for holiday homes and I would see holiday lets being taken on year round and the refurbishment process accelerating rapidly. I think it would be wives and children evacuated at first while the husband remained to work and keep an eye on the family home. I think there would be a lot of children packed off to stay with cousins and family friends who lived in isolated communities. I think these little island communities would have a short lived economic boom - although this might be crimped by the fact that CalMac ferries would probably be requisitioned for service resupplying allied forces in Europe.

I also think there would be a lot of tension between the natives and the "white settlers" who had recently moved in. I also think there would be a growth in self sufficiency on an individual level - "digging for victory" would come back as people planted vegetables wherever they could and began to think about keeping chickens and so on.

Originally Posted by Raellus

With the onset of tactical nuclear strikes, I see some cities vacated in a panic, highways clogged with cars and busses and such. At this point, you'd either see strangers banding together to help one another OR people looking out only for themselves and taking advantage of others. It would probably be a bit of both. I guess this question boils down to whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about human nature.

Keeping the Scottish islands in mind I think the husbands back in Glasgow, London etc would find they had issues getting to their families because so many of the ferries had been taken up by the government - they'd have to barter with local fishermen or pleasure boat owners to get them to their new home. Of course there would be a few inshore vessels still running including the last Clyde Puffers:

http://www.tradboat2.co.uk/sourcepag...rce%20page.htm

I can't help thinking that these old girls would come into their own in T2K and that you could devise an interesting campaign running one of these as a tramp steamer helping the island communities survive.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think you raise a really interesting point about the Twilight War being really unpopular with the general public. Maybe you'd see draft riots.

Well, not wanting to get political but the war in Iraq was very unpopular in Britain, and Afghanistan seems to be turning into another Vietnam, our PM was at the economic helm during the events that led up to our credit crunch and seems incapable of admitting he's wrong about anything: Frankly I begrudge handing over my taxes to the fools in power right now like I never have before - if they were to lead this country into a nuclear war I'm pretty sure I would just cease to co-operate whenever possible (which presumably be whenever someone "official" was nowhere in sight) unless I could see a direct and immediate advantage in it for me and mine. I wouldn't riot but I'd be quite happy to break any rules that conflicted with what I wanted to do.

Originally Posted by Raellus

In the U.S. at least (I don't know enough about other countries' reserves/mobilization systems), a lot of law enforcement personel are military reservists or National Guard members. With the war picking up speed, a lot of them would be recalled to active duty. This would leave law enforcement agencies with fewer bodies to deal with the increasing load of problems briefly touched on above. It would not be pretty. Once again, in the U.S. at least, I see crime rates going up and vigilantiism popping up to deal with it.

I would think that with the American tradition a first step of the hard pressed US Police Chief would be to deputise suitable members of the public, give them a short basic training in patrol work and then partner them experienced officers (and watch for a rapid rise in officer involved shootings as the new deputies opened fire when a more experienced officer would seek to calm things down). But your specialist squads would I think be decimated - you can't just pull a detective straight off the street.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

i've been thinking of doing a series of news reports leading up to the Twilight War, and use those news reports that detail the various evacuation plans to get people out of the cities that gave the soviets all the intell that they would have needed to make the TDM as devistating as possible.

I'm not sure the Soviets wanted the TDM to be "as devastating as possible". The description of the nuclear exchange is one of carefully targeted, gradually escalating strikes against targets of military significance. If the USSR wanted the attacks to be devastating (a "counter-value" strike in the parlance of the day) they wouldn't need evacuation plans, they'd need the US census results.

Originally Posted by natehale1971

you just know that the media would have reported on the evac plans for civlians AND for the government officials (like the plan to get the federal government burecrats out of DC in under 15 minutes that we learned about a few years ago).

I think you're putting too much faith in the effectiveness of the federal government. First, to evac DC there are 2 states, 5 counties and the District itself that are the immediate surroundings. After nearly 8 years of post-9-11 planning and coordination there is still no evacuation plan for DC. Some of those governments have plans, some might, but none of them are coordinated (for example, DC designates one road as a major evac route, but once it crosses the border into Maryland the road goes down to 2 lanes and really doesn't go anywhere) and only a few of them are public. As for getting the federal bureaucrats out of DC in under 15 minutes, no way - a third or more of downtown DC is federal employees, and in my federal building we have a goal to get the building evacuated in 15 minutes, but from then you're on your own and you better hope you're wearing comfortable shoes because its a long walk...

I did cover some of these issues in my article on the State Guards, too.

[natehale1971]

Actually i got the 15 minute evac plan from some news articles that ran during the aftermath of 9/11... they can start the evac in only 15 minutes, and they can get them to 'safety' of the Continuality of Government facilities.

I can't remember the rest of the plans, i haven't been able to find the full article that had the actual times and schedule that showed how long each step was taken.


Federal Workers Get Evacuation Plan
at Aug 17, 5:03 AM ET

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration has reportedly approved a plan designed to initiate an evacuation of the nation's more than 2 million federal workers within 15 minutes if there is a broad attack or threat from nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

Under the plan, the heads of the Office of Personnel Management, Federal Emergency Management Agency and General Services Administration may release up to 350,000 federal workers in the Washington area and 1.8 million nationwide if a threat is confirmed, The Washington Post reported in Saturday editions.

Directors of the three agencies could alert the White House, local officials and regional emergency managers within minutes, the Post said. Federal agencies and the public would then be notified.

The plan, prompted by confusion during the Sept. 11 attacks, is intended to allow for an orderly evacuation, the newspaper said. The procedures have been months in development and were presented to local government officials this summer.

The three agencies have set up new 24-hour operation centers, which are in constant contact with federal, state and local law enforcement, the Post said. Some government officials have been assigned cellular or satellite phones or other wireless devices along with emergency call lists.

Scott Hatch, a spokesman for the Office of Personnel Management, told the Post the plan is designed to begin the evacuation within 15 minutes.


DOJgov.net Newswire July 4, 2002

The concept of maintaining continuity of government during and after an emergency is not a new idea.

During the Cold War, Congress established elaborate and rather luxurious survival facilities in the mountains of West Virginia. Presumably, while the American "common folk" would be incinerated, the privileged could survive and guarantee the continuity of government and civilization based on their own criteria for human survival.

It was on this premise that in 1964, the great film Director Stanley Kubrick created the classic "Dr. Strangelove."

According to the Washington Post (March 2002), the operation was re-activated after the 11 September attacks. It is reported to involve officials drawn from all departments, depending on the perceived level of threat (or in the case of Dr. Strangelove... position in government, superior genetics and potential virility for human regeneration).

Those taking part, live and work underground for long spells at secret fortified locations on the East Coast. The core group of federal managers would be drawn from the same bureaucratic minions whose self pre-occupation, negligence and apathy caused the deaths of thousands in the World Trade Center.

The plan for a shadow government has been implemented now because of heightened fears that Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network might obtain portable nuclear weapons.

An unnamed senior official told the Associated Press news agency that while US intelligence had no specific knowledge of such weapons, the risk was great enough to warrant activation of the plan. Dick Cheney's survival may provide legitimacy for constitutional succession, but he can't run the country by himself.

He went on to say that President George W. Bush did not foresee ever needing to turn over government functions to the secret operation, but believed it was prudent to put the plan into action in the light of the war against terrorism and persistent threats of future attacks.

Other officials, who spoke to the Washington Post newspaper, said the back-up government consisted of anything from 70 to 150 people at two principal locations on the East Coast. They are suspected to be living and working in heavily fortified mountain bunkers, carved out under Pennsylvania's Raven Rock Mountain and Weather Mountain in Virginia during the Cold War in the 1950s.

These underground cities are home to government officials who rotate through on three-month stints. Their identities and even their titles are kept secret. As with all budding bureaucracies, it is not unreasonable to assume that this number will increase, as will the funding and lavishness of accommodations.

Once activated for what some call "bunker duty", they live and work underground 24 hours a day, away from their families. No formal mention was made relative to having families join them as accommodations grow larger.

Those deployed for the operation are not allowed to tell anyone where they are going or why. "They're on a 'business trip', that's all," one official was quoted as saying.

Although it does not identify the exact location of these sites, the Washington Post says they make use of geological features to render them highly secure. They are well stocked with food, water, medicine and other supplies and are capable of generating their own power. There are video links, computers and other connections to the unprotected and totally vulnerable civilian populace.

The newspaper said that only the executive branch is represented in the full-time shadow administration. Other branches - such as Congress and the judiciary - have separate continuity plans.

The Bush administration is following a script that was maintained during every administration, up through the Clinton years. But at the Pentagon, at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and at the new Office of Homeland Security (Now being elevated to a 170,000 strong super Agency), officials have been busy updating those plans, particularly the way they relate to using the military as a kind of domestic national police for "continuity of government." For those unaware of fed-speak, this means the protecting of elected officials and bureaucrats from the rest of us, who are viewed as the potential enemy.

Many people feel that the Posse Comitatus act of 1878, might protect them from a police state combining the military and civil law enforcement, with heavy managerial input by the US Department of Justice. But laws are already on the books authorizing martial law, including Section 32CFR 501.4** of the Code of Federal Regulations. These are the rules written by unelected bureaucrats that govern our lives.

In broad based terms, the CFR simply states: "Martial law depends for its justification upon public necessity." **(If you have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed you can view 32 CFR 501.4 in PDF format by double clicking this hyperlink with your left mouse button. You can download by right clicking and then left clicking.)

And let us not forget that vast emergency federal powers by decree dates at least to John Kennedy, who issued a raft of such orders during the Cold War. You can read recent Executive Orders and look up the topics of all modern Executive Orders by going to http://www.archives.gov/search/index.html National Archives and Records. They are difficult to pull up and include Executive Orders 12919, 12656, 13228 and the ominous Executive Order 11490. In force today (or replaced by something worse), they reveal how easily our individual liberties and constitutional government can be set aside. For downloads of documents, Right Click on the above Executive Order hyperlinks and Left Click to view or download.

With constitutional government "temporarily" placed in the garbage heap, the American people would be subject to direct control by unelected bureaucrats scrambling to shore up a jack boot heel on the dreams of our Founding Fathers.
Federal Workers Get Terrorist Evacuation Plan - The Rest of America Can Go to Hell




DOJgov.net Newswire

August 17, 2002

In a bipartisan attempt aimed at shielding the federal bureaucracy from danger, the Bush administration has reportedly approved a safety evacuation plan for saving the nation's more than 2 million federal workers within 15 minutes.

According to today's edition of the Washington Post, upon confirmation of a threat, the Office of Personnel Management, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and General Services Administration may release up to 350,000 federal workers in the Washington area and 1.8 million nationwide.
Directors of the three agencies could alert the White House, local officials and regional emergency managers within minutes, the Post said.

Presumably, the American taxpayers who fund these agencies' federal employees will be afforded an "after the fact" warning and be left to fend for themselves.

The plan, prompted by confusion during the Sept. 11 attacks, is intended to allow for an orderly evacuation, the newspaper said.

The procedures have been months in development and were presented to local government officials this summer.

No explanation was given why the life of a federal employee is worth more than anyone else. And while the rest of the American people might face hardship, starvation and death under Martial Law, federal bureaucrats will continue receiving full salaries, medical care, lavish pension funding and guaranteed jobs.

The three agencies have set up new 24-hour operation centers, which are in constant contact with federal, state and local law enforcement, the Post said. Some government officials have been assigned cellular or satellite phones or other wireless devices along with emergency call lists.

Scott Hatch, a spokesman for the Office of Personnel Management, told the Post the plan is designed to begin the evacuation within 15 minutes.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

On a side note it would have a lot of interesting effects on the financial markets. I wonder what the Dow Jones would have done in the days before the Thanksgiving Day strikes. If there is a lot of paranoia and fear of the nukes flying any time, that could cause the Mother of all Bear Markets to even a crash.

Chuck

[natehale1971]

Originally Posted by Nowhere Man 1966

On a side note it would have a lot of interesting effects on the financial markets. I wonder what the Dow Jones would have done in the days before the Thanksgiving Day strikes. If there is a lot of paranoia and fear of the nukes flying any time, that could cause the Mother of all Bear Markets to even a crash.

Chuck

I think the various stockmarkets around the world would have been like a roller coaster with ups and downs like you wouldn't believe. Does anyone know anything about how the stockmarkets reacted throughout the Second World War, the Korean War or the Cuban Missile Crisis? I've talked with people who said that the Korean War and Cuban Missile Crisis had really worried people with the possible nuke echanges... That might give us a good model for the build up to the use of nukes.

After the use of tactical nukes to the actual strategic exchanges the stockmarket could have had several crashes unless someone really took advantage of it and short selled the dollar, pound or mark. George Soros did similar in the past and caused the Pound to collaspe and has done the same with the Dollar.

[Marc]

First of all, I think that continental Europe always has seen itself as the great loser in a future NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict. Even in the case of a conventional war, nothing would save Central Europe from the destruction of war. And about the terrible specter of a nuclear war, we are only first seat spectators totally tied to the will of others. In the situation described in Twilight, any of the signs from any of the former soviet republics to get closer to Europe or NATO would be seen as a problem. So, do not expect much effective support to countries like Ukraina and Belarus when (in v2 timeline) they begin their separatist movements. The public sign of the Treaty of Public Security, the New Warsaw Pact, could be the first warning that forces European diplomacy to take some decisions. But we are so slowly... Belarus will fall in notime, just like Poland did in 1939. First political pressures over Germany to prevent their agressive politics against Poland must be expected.

Of course, everyting will change with the effective beginning of the hostilities in Europe.

Here, some thought about innner politics:

I think we can simplify in some way the political map in Europe. Although the apparent complexity of this map, Western European states are always playing to the game of coalitions and, in most cases and no matter the number of parties in each country, you will encounter two different political blocks with moderate differences between them if compared to other moments in our histories. In a lot of countries, the presence of one party or another in the government are subject to the attitude of minority parties, but, in resume, a lot of countries in Europe are based in two-party coalition. I know I'm simplifying the question too much. But what I want to state is that, broadly speaking, any government that supports Germany at the outbreak of the war would be in internal political disadvantage. If the country in question has important parties representing old nations in a modern state (like Spain) , the differences would be greater, because such parties are always reticent to support the politics of the state where they belong in support of foreign wars. The balance of power will change accordingly to the political support to Germany. This change would cause the abandon of NATO in some cases. If the government insist in supporting Germany and enter the war its position will be, at least, very uncomfortable. At worst, the power would eventually change of hands due to popular pressure and the political maneuvers of the opposition.

A second important point. What Western countries understand as heavy military casualties will be nothing compared to what they will encounter in the first stages of the war. Even with NATO forces gaining the upper hand in Poland, the continuous dripping of inevitable casualties would be an added factor to the pressure borne by the governments that have decided to joint the war. Any attempt to mobilize more soldiers, if not justified as a self-defense against an aggression or as internal security force, could end in riots.

Of course, some countries would adopt a mid-way position. They will provide logistical support and their bases inside their boundaries, but without sending troops to the front. More possible Spain would be in this grey zone.
Diplomatic pressure from the more implied countries must be expected, but the inner public opinion has more chances to prevail. And even for those governments who are sending troops,there's no point risking to provoke a change from an ambiguous government to a totally reluctant one.

And another important point. Before July 9th 1997, NATO divisions are closing up to the Polish-Soviet frontier... Although not very obvious this will be another political friction point. If NATO has entered the fight to prevent "Germany desmembration as state", if NATO troops are in the russian border and if the soviets seems to be in a critical position in China...some of the western allies could think that this the right moment to look for a cease-fire, isn't it?

But then, war becomes nuclear...in another post .

[Marc]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

I remember growing up with nuke attack drills in elementary school during the 1970s, and was wondering if anyone remembered any of the reports the media did on covering evac / contingency plans the government took.

Interesting...(and scaring). Just for curiosity, were these drills a usual practice in the United States? What must the children do in them? What did the teacher explain?

Probably, in a Twilight:2000 background and about talking about this thread, the return of these drills would be mean a tremendous knock to the morale of a citizenry that considered them a thing from the past.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Marc

Probably, in a Twilight:2000 background and about talking about this thread, the return of these drills would be mean a tremendous knock to the morale of a citizenry that considered them a thing from the past.

I had them as a child in Illinois and they still are required. They are more generic Tornado/Disaster drills, but they end up very similar to nuclear attack preparedness. We would move to the center hallways, kneel down facing the lockers, cover our heads with our hands our and extra clothing. I'm a little to young for duck and cover.

[natehale1971]

Originally Posted by kato13

I had them as a child in Illinois and they still are required. They are more generic Tornado/Disaster drills, but they end up very similar to nuclear attack preparedness. We would move to the center hallways, kneel down facing the lockers, cover our heads with our hands our and extra clothing. I'm a little to young for duck and cover.

I went to Greenhill Elementary School in Rutherford County, and we did Tornado Drills, Fire Drills and Nuclear attack drills. We had those going from kindergarden all the way to fifth grade.

When i left Greenhill half-way through the fifth grade and went to Waxhaw Elementary, and then Parkwood Middle School (now Junior High) for the sixth grade we only did Fire Drills and maybe tornado drills.

When i went back to New Hope Middle School for seventh and eigth grades in Rutherford County again, we where still doing Tornado, fire and nuke attack drills. When i went to RS Central High School, we only did fire drills and tornado drills on a regular basis... we only did ONE or TWO nuke attack drills after ninth grade... Of course that was the tail end of the 1980s and we weren't expecting a sudden nuke attack at that point.

When i joined the navy in 1989, they where still training us to fight the Soviets. But instead we ended up figthing the Iraqis and other irregular forces in the failed Solami republic

[Targan]

Here in Perth the only drills I ever did at school were fire drills. Australia is not a very paranoid country and we tend to be very laid back as a society. We take the threat of fires pretty seriously but that is about it. Perhaps we should be a bit more on guard in this changing world we live in. Terrorists have said many times in the media that they consider Australia to be a target.

There are parts of Australia (the northern half) where cyclones are a yearly occurrence so I guess schools in those parts have the equivalent of tornado drills. We get a lot more early warning for cyclones than people in the US would get for tornadoes though.

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by Targan

Here in Perth the only drills I ever did at school were fire drills. Australia is not a very paranoid country and we tend to be very laid back as a society. We take the threat of fires pretty seriously but that is about it. Perhaps we should be a bit more on guard in this changing world we live in. Terrorists have said many times in the media that they consider Australia to be a target.

There are parts of Australia (the northern half) where cyclones are a yearly occurrence so I guess schools in those parts have the equivalent of tornado drills. We get a lot more early warning for cyclones than people in the US would get for tornadoes though.

I guess many forms of emergency preparedness could translate into useable methods for different types of crisis.

Up here I fel like there is no shred of preparedness at all for the most part .Even trying to allocate funds for such measures usually meets negativety and indifference in our politics .

Guess we will never get hit in the minds of our benevolent rulers ..

[TiggerCCW UK]

Here in NI, even with regular terrorist attacks going on all we ever did in school were fire drills. On the other hand given that the majority of bombings over here were carried out with a warning, a fire drill worked much the same as an evacuation for a bomb scare, to the point where there were a few times when we were evac'd from school thinking it was a drill and there had actually been a bomb alert phoned in. I think that at that time it would have been the same for the majority of the UK - certainly when I was at university I ended up writing a bomb alert plan for the uni after a false alarm which ended with the fire warden wandering over and opening the suspect bag "just to make sure"!!!

[Rainbow Six]

My school experience was the same as Tigger's. The occasional fire drill and that was it. Admitedly I went to school in Scotland, so our English posters may have had different experiences. In Scotland we always considered ourselves reasonably "immune" from terrorism; the popular perception was that any terrorist attacks on the UK mainland by the IRA etc would be focused solely on England. As it turned out that was the case, and I actually think that a lot of people carried on in that mindset after the threat to the mainland switched to Islamic terrorism; a lot of people only really woke up to the situation after the failed attack on Glasgow airport.

I've also experienced the false alarm scenario where someone who ought to know better decided the best way to deal with a suspect package was simply to open it to see what was inside it...

Oddly enough one of my work tasks at the minute is to update our contingency plans; a task that is admittedly long overdue and has been prompted by swine flu.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Oddly enough one of my work tasks at the minute is to update our contingency plans; a task that is admittedly long overdue and has been prompted by swine flu.

Per capita Australia is being affected more by swine flu than anywhere else. Apparently it has to do with Australians being such enthusiastic international travellers.

[Trooper]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

I went to Greenhill Elementary School in Rutherford County, and we did Tornado Drills, Fire Drills and Nuclear attack drills. We had those going from kindergarden all the way to fifth grade.

Nuclear attack drills!

Our apartment building have bunker that can withstand nuclear weapons overpressure, firestorm or chemical attack.(escape tunnels, NBC protection, thick air tight steel doors etc..) In fact in urban areas you have to build air raid shelter to every apartment building . Local volunteer fire department even has civil defence unit and all volunteer fire units are trained for civil defence service.

Only drill in our school was fire drill. Civil defence was not PC in 80`s and nowdays you are labeled lunatic if you even speak about it .

[natehale1971]

Originally Posted by Trooper

Nuclear attack drills!

Our apartment building have bunker that can withstand nuclear weapons overpressure, firestorm or chemical attack.(escape tunnels, NBC protection, thick air tight steel doors etc..) In fact in urban areas you have to build air raid shelter to every apartment building . Local volunteer fire department even has civil defence unit and all volunteer fire units are trained for civil defence service.

Only drill in our school was fire drill. Civil defence was not PC in 80`s and nowdays you are labeled lunatic if you even speak about it .

Too true. People love to attack other people who believe in being prepared for the worst while hoping for the best.

[stoner63]

Its very interesting to hear all of your different personal experiences with the various forms of "attack" and emergency drills you had in school, especially the ones from Europe and Australia.
I grew up in NY. In elementary school we had nondescript "bomb" drills where we were escorted into the halls in 2 orderly lines. We then were told to kneel in front of the wall with our heads touching the floor where it met the wall and cover our heads with our folded arms, hands locked behind our necks.
No explanation or other instructions were given...ever.
Fire drills were also a parade ground maneuver to the recess area where we were organized to face the school.
Insanity !!!
Were we supposed to watch while it burned ?! Who was going to evac us ?!
They never discussed it.
In high school there were several bomb threats and they were treated like fire drills. Again, we still oriented to face the school and not 20 yards away.
Had these people not heard of shrapnel ?
I graduated in 1985 that is before the school shootings began occurring in the US.
I should hope now that the students are far more self aware and motivated towards survival and take their own preservation seriously enough to use their heads and do what makes sense should something occur while they were at school.

[Targan]

I recently read an excellent book titled The Unthinkable and it was all about which sorts of people tend to survive disasters and why. One of the strongest messages I took away from reading the book was that training really works - many if not most people suffer various psychological, physical and psychogenic effects when faced with extreme danger and stress and if you have trained for a contingency that allows you to act instead of just standing there or doing something stupid.

[simonmark6]

My Dad and Grandad were part timers in the Fire Service and took part in lots of Civil Defence Drills in the 50s, 60s and 70s. These were quite a big deal because the fire station they worked in was the first response unit to the BP Llandarcy Oil Refinery, one of the biggest in Europe at the time, BP Baglan Bay, a major chemical works and were the next station down the line for British Steel Company, Port Talbot, the biggest steel works in Europe, it still is, but not for much longer.

I asked my Dad recently what the Civil Defence plans were for my town. He laughed, if we were hit by conventional strikes, Briton Ferry was a big smoking holw and the emergency responses focused on there being a five to ten mile death zone centering on us. If it was a nuclear attack, the hole would be a bit larger, still smoking but radioactive to boot.

I asked him why the hell had we stayed in a place that was likely to be less survivable than ground zero, Hiroshima. He said, "No one would ever be stupid enough to to start a nuclear war, and if they were, the only people worse off than those who died before they knew the war started would be the survivors."

I guess he may have had a point. My personal future after having survived a nuclear war would have been: die slowly unless someone killed me for food, I could feed quite a few people even after a few months of starvation...

[Nowhere Man 1966]

We mainly had fire drills. I do remember one time, there was a bomb threat at my junior high, this was 1981, we were all send to the auditorium while the police searched for it, no bomb was found, it wasa hoax.

I remember one of my professors at college, he grew up in a small coal mining town, east of Pittsburgh, he was old enough to remember Civil Defense drills when the town siren went off.

Chuck