Poland After OMEGA [Archive]

Raellus

01-15-2010, 07:20 PM

I'm currently reading Rising '44 (by Norman Davies) about the valiant but doomed efforts of the AK (Polish Home Army) to liberate Warsaw ahead of the advancing Soviet Army in the late summer of 1944 and it's inspired me to try to steer the player group in my campaign towards helping the Poles whether the storm and regain their independence in the wake of the American's withdrawal from Europe (ie OMEGA).

I'm learning that the Poles have a long history of vigorously opposing occupying armies, especially those from the East, and I can't see them rolling over and allowing dozens of Soviet divisions, some of which have gone rogue, to camp out on their territory indefinitely. I think that many Poles would want to get them out as soon as possible but it's a pretty complicated proposition.

The [loyal] Polish armed forces are clearly outnumbered by the Red Army forces in Poland. Significant Polish forces are no longer under centrallized control (the Krakow ORMO, the Margrave of Silesia's forces, etc.). The Soviets presumably still have nuclear weapons and might be tempted to use them to close their back door should they decide on a general withdraw from Polish territory (especially if "loyal" Polish Army units become rebellious).

Working in the Poles' favor, the Soviets might want to bring some (or, less likely, all) of their divisions back to the Motherland to deal with the various separatist and marauder elements already operating on home soil. Perhaps the Soviets could be persuaded to leave peacefully.

There seem to be a lot of interest "macro"-level, strategic gaming opportunities in Poland, post-OMEGA: uniting Polish factions (this may be a good time to explore the Black Madonna, if it's not been addressed earlier), negotiating with independent Polish, Soviet, and German units. Fighting marauders and hostile foreign forces. General rebuilding operations. It seems like a rich, dangerous, Byzantine setting for all kinds of RPing fun.

I'm not very familiar with Polish canon after OMEGA. Return to Warsaw seems like a rehash of Ruins... . White Eagle appears to deal mostly with Poland south of Krakow. Perhaps some of the questions I've raised are already addressed by these "Return to Poland" modules. None of them appear to deal with the activities of the various Soviet Armies still listed as being on Polish soil as of late summer, 2000.

What is your take on post-OMEGA Poland?

rcaf_777

01-15-2010, 07:56 PM

I image Poland being devided after a formal ceasefire is signed, with small units of Marine have FOB along a DMZ with a few units of Army troop UK and US training a new Polish Army the New West Poland would the free Polish legions and the Krakow ORMO, and the Margrave of Silesia's forces. Krakow would become a new Captial and Polish Government in Exile would set up a government

pmulcahy11b

01-15-2010, 10:11 PM

There's some fanfic (can't remember which site) about an operation that takes place after OMEGA. It's pretty decent. If no one can find the site, let me know; I'm pretty sure I downloaded the whole thing to my hard drive at some point, and hopefully, the author won't object to my posting it on my site.

kato13

01-15-2010, 10:26 PM

Wouldn't the "Return to Europe" series cover some of this. I never played through it so I don't remember any details.

Abbott Shaull

01-15-2010, 11:22 PM

I had the Warsaw but don't remember what was mention. One thing I do remember what was left of the Soviet Army was by all practically purpose melting away as an organized army following orders from Stavka and Theater Commanders.

There were areas under the control of the Polish Free Congress. Most regions where what was left of the Polish First, Second, and First Tank Armies had various militias reinforced, many of them working with the PFC other going independent for the time being waiting to see who to support. The Soviet supported government was still Lublin, but they controlled on the city. Some of the best organized areas were those under the control of the 14th MRD and their feudal state that was set up there and the 8th MRD and it City-State of Krakow.

While those areas that had Soviet troops station or such as areas east of Krakow and south of Lublin had marauder problems. Other units were on the move back to their homelands in the Soviet Union. Some units had stayed put either setting up their own feudal states/petty dictatorship or absorbing into the local militia. By this time there were few Soviet units in Eastern Europe who were accepting orders. If they were, they more interested in preserve what limited forces they had than waste lives.

Just some thoughts.

Raellus

01-16-2010, 12:30 AM

Wouldn't the "Return to Europe" series cover some of this. I never played through it so I don't remember any details.

Not really. Like I said, Return to Warsaw is basically Ruins of Warsaw Part II and White Eagle deals with southern Poland. Bear's Den is set in the Ukraine. There's not much about northern Poland were Polish units predominate or western Poland where there are numerous Soviet units (as of 07/00). I haven't looked very closely at Castle by the Sea yet, though.

Maybe I missed a module somewhere. That's why I asked. I'm also wondering if any forumites out there have worked anything up for post-Omega Poland.

Paul, anything you can share would be much appreciated.

simonmark6

01-16-2010, 05:28 AM

I haven't got my modules to hand, but there are some clues to the situation in Poland that might help:

1) White Eagle: Free Polish Partisans are fighting the paranoid King of Silesea, there are a few clues to the state of Southern Poland;
Filipowicz is becoming an egomanical despot
There are independant forces in Czecoslovakia that are looking at Krakow and Silesia greedily
There's been a coup in Krakow and it's looking more fragile than ever, it's suggested that Krakow may soon fall into either chaos or to enemy forces
2) The ruins of Warsaw: The continuing existance of the Black Baron as a threat to peacful citizens suggests that there are few organised forces policing theland. The fact that the Black Baron could last a hard winter without the Northern Polish and Soviet forces crushing him suggests that units in the north are not interested in or able to aid recreation.
3) The Bear's Den: the Ukraine is making a bid for independance and is also threatened by a Pro-Nato unit in the Caucuses.
If the Soviets want to maintain internal security, they are probably pulling units back to deal with this. I'd make the Ukraine a major theatre in the Summer of 2001, returning Ukranian deserters would swell the Bear's army and Soviet forces from Poland, Russia and Roumania would be fighting to retake the Ukraine and establish lines of communication between the Motherland and the Ploesti oilfields.
This potential conflict might start to empty of organised Soviet units and allow Poles to reassert themselves somewhat.
4) Eastern European Sourcebook
The 8-ball division are trapped in the Baltic States and ae likely to get tangled up with these States' attempts to stay independent of the Soviets. Again, if the Soviets decide they want the Baltic States back, this would draw forces from Poland.
5) Survivor's Guide to the UK
In the summer of 2001, the UK are planning their own OMEGA but they also plan to bring their heavy gear home with them. If they succeed, this leaves the Germans facing the Poles pretty much on their own. With the French on German territory, I can't see the Germans taking offensive actions against the Poles, but if the same adventurers that started the war are still in command I could be completely wrong....
6) Howling Wastelands
The drought that effectively kills of the USA results in bumper crops in the UK and Europe, this will help recovery in the long run.

So, looking at all the clues and basing assumptions (which could be totally spurious and incorrect), I'd suggest that as the Americans and British leave, the Soviets will withdraw their organised divisions from Poland to deal with internal issues, fighting marauders, regaining the Ukraine and Baltic States. This would leave Poland with breathing space and growing crops to start recovery.

The problem is, which Poland? There lies the rich roleplaying environment that Rae craves. I think it's more than feasible and also a very interesting scenario.

Legbreaker

01-16-2010, 06:42 AM

Poland in 2001 is a desolate, war ravaged and almost unpopulated wasteland by and large.
Poland more than any other country suffered from the front crossing it twice, uncounted nukes spattered all over, depredation by marauders, disease, famine, and just about everything else imaginable.
According to the East Europe Sourcebook (EES) the prewar population stood at 38,300,000. In mid 2000 it's down to barely 9,000,000 - a decrease to just 23.5% of 4 years before. 735,000 (about 8%) of these live in the remains of the major cities. Looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Poland and EES, we can work out on average cities have a population just under 10% of prewar.
From The Black Madonna we know that 2.9 million of these casualties were in Silesia - a staggeringly high percentage of the whole countries deaths. Again looking at the above sources, we can work out 80% of the population in Silesia lives in the three largest centres leaving the countryside with a population density of about 1.6 per square kilometre, or 4 per square mile (down from a prewar rural figure of 81 per sq km - 210 per sq mile).

So, as can be seen in the south, there must be a lot of bodies still laying about unburied - it's not like there's too many people around to take care of them all!

The situation is certainly better in most other parts of the country, but with a greater population density probably comes greater problems in the form of marauders. When in areas not directly under the influence of a powerful faction of some kind, lawlessness is likely to prevail.

To put it into T2K 2.0 terms, Silesia could be considered Devastated while in other areas the default might be Terrorised. It's doubtful that there'd be many regions that could be classified as Organised or Independant outside the range of the nearest machinegun.

Targan

01-16-2010, 06:47 AM

Poland more than any other country suffered from the front crossing it twice, uncounted nukes spattered all over, depredation by marauders, disease, famine, and just about everything else imaginable.

Front crossing it twice? At least four times, possibly more.

Legbreaker

01-16-2010, 07:27 AM

Nato attacked across it in 1996/97 and was pushed back in late 1997.
Other than some minor local activity, most of the action in 1998 appears to have taken place to the south and not in Poland.
1999 saw the front lines staying relatively stable and in 2000 nothing much happened until the summer offensives.

It's hard to say that US XI Corp alone "crossed" the country - only the US 5th ID and 8th ID really made any headway.

pmulcahy11b

01-16-2010, 08:56 AM

According to the East Europe Sourcebook (EES) the prewar population stood at 38,300,000. In mid 2000 it's down to barely 9,000,000 - a decrease to just 23.5% of 4 years before. 735,000 (about 8%) of these live in the remains of the major cities.

IIRC, that death toll is, percentage-wise, worse than the Black Plague of the Middle Ages!

Legbreaker

01-16-2010, 09:02 AM

Somehow I tend to think uncounted nukes fired off at anything even vaguely worthwhile would have a greater impact on population than a simple disease....

Raellus

01-16-2010, 10:50 AM

Somehow I tend to think uncounted nukes fired off at anything even vaguely worthwhile would have a greater impact on population than a simple disease....

At the risk of getting us OT, the Black Death of the mid-14th century was no "simple" disease. Most modern scholars believe it was actually two diseases, Bubonic Plague and, later, the much more deadly Pneumonic Plague. Some people have postulated that it was actually neither but instead a hemoragic fever of some sort, much like Ebola.

Furthermore, medieval folks had no idea what caused it, maving prevention and treatment alomst impossible.

Adm.Lee

01-16-2010, 11:10 AM

This is a campaign I'd wanted to play/run, 'cause I always wanted to see who would emerge on top in Poland. The first run of Poland modules actually hooked me on Polish history, it's now habit for me to root for the Poles whenever possible.

I've stared at the "Return" modules long and hard, but by the time they came out, my group had long dispersed, and soon the end of the Cold War drained away the enthusiasm. "White Eagle" seemed the best starting place for such a campaign. When reading "Black Madonnna" the possibility of a King touched a romantic nerve. Then I read about him going nuts-- oh, well. The sentimental favorite would seem to be the People's Army, with the Black Madonna, gaining the power of Krakow and the trade league there to win. Even if they could defeat the King and keep the Czechs at bay, would they then be strong enough to hold off the rest?

IMO, what would happen is that political groups would build around some cores, like Krakow, Silesia, and whatever local powers rose up, including marauders. Warlords would be the common term, and their power base would be their wartime commands, plus any foreign mercenaries they could get their hand on.

The Soviets would melt away as a threat on their own, I think. Some divisions had already started to melt away as men deserted, I could easily see a lot of men just deserting to try to go home. Small or large bands of these could become mercenaries for whoever wanted to rule an area. Some Soviet generals might decide to become warlords, like their Polish counterparts. Any Soviet forces still listening to orders, or higher HQs, would likely walk out sooner or later, as the NATO threat to the homeland diminishes.

Given that neither side retains much capability to mount a real ground-gaining offensive, and about half of the Americans and nearly all of the British are leaving the Continent in the winter of '00, NATO is at least as crippled as the Soviets. It certainly would seem unable to press all the way to the Soviet border. Were I a Soviet front commander, I would say, "job done," and go home.

Hmm-- here's a thought. One or more Soviet higher-ups get the idea to talk cease-fire with the Germans, say, a Front commander. If he can tell the troops around him, "I've ended the war, let's go home!" he would be fantastically popular with "his boys." And with the local Poles, whom he could badger for a one-time gift of food and fuel, to enable their withdrawal. But not with any KGB hard-cases, if there are any left. That sounds like a game-- the PCs are NATO (or German or Polish) operatives tasked to keep Marshal Popularov alive, at least until he goes far away.

Anyway, as I see, Poland is depopulated, both sides' armies are going home, so the new Poland will coalesce around several centers, that will have to jockey for position against one another. Foreign mercenary soldiers will be important, as local men might be preferred to settle on the land. Some of the mercenaries could be paid off in land, as well, after a suitable term of service (5 years? 10? If they live that long).

Edit: I'm probably going to be thinking on this again for a while today, time to break out the maps again!

pmulcahy11b

01-16-2010, 02:26 PM

At the risk of getting us OT, the Black Death of the mid-14th century was no "simple" disease. Most modern scholars believe it was actually two diseases, Bubonic Plague and, later, the much more deadly Pneumonic Plague. Some people have postulated that it was actually neither but instead a hemoragic fever of some sort, much like Ebola.

Furthermore, medieval folks had no idea what caused it, maving prevention and treatment alomst impossible.

I vaguely remember seeing on one of the science or history channels that the "Black Death" may have been as many as five diseases with similar symptoms, including both bubonic and pneumonic plague.

Raellus

01-16-2010, 04:29 PM

I'm with you, Adm. Lee. I really want to play out how Poland responds to the NATO withdrawal from its territory in the wake of Omega.

On one hand, the Soviets have some very compelling reasons to pull out of Poland. On the other, the Russians have an almost atavistic fear of Germany and I can't see them giving up their claims to a "buffer state" (i.e. Poland) against a reunited Deutschland.

Things are a mess in southern Poland, what with the "King" of Silesia and a fiercely independent Krakow. Northern Poland looks like a better candidate for the seat of a resurgent Polish nation-state. In N. Poland, there are many more Polish military units than Soviet ones. If there was some sort of anti-Soviet movement in the general staff (in not the civilian national government), I can see the recovery and reconstruction of post-war Poland beginning there.

But, before that can happen, individual units' loyalties would need to be determined/secured, the Soviet forces still in northern Poland would have to be dealt with, either diplomatically or by force, and various rogue or marauder groups would need to be brought to heel. Soviet Baltic Front (Malbork) and Reserve Front (Lublin) HQs are relatively isolated and are ripe for Polish army- instigated coups. But, in my mind, the Poles would have to be very careful not to pose too great a threat to the Soviets, lest they resort to the nuclear option.

Also, German quiescence would need to be secured in order to prevent interference from that side.

It seems like a really fertile setting for a more diplomatic style campaign. I'm not sure that a lot of T2K player groups would really go in for that sort of thing. I know that most of my players start getting bored when I try to insert too much diplomacy. For good or for bad, it seems like combat and survival is truly the heart of T2K.

Rainbow Six

01-17-2010, 06:53 AM

Interesting thread...I read Rising 44 in 2003 when I was working in Warsaw...great book, slightly surreal reading it in the City where it happened...

If you haven't seen it there's a write up of Poland on the etranger 2300 site...it briefly mentions the immediate aftermath of the Twilight War...here's the link...

http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~dheb/2300/Europe/Poland/JBPA.htm

A few random thoughts...

I totally concur with the view put forward that several different factions will emerge, each with its own power base, and each supported by foreign mercenaries as well as Polish troops. I also agree that it would probably make for more of a diplomatic campaign rather than a hack n slash...

I tend to think that the Germans aren't going to be in any condition to make an offensive move against Poland for decades...I think the Germans will have enough on their plate defending their borders, dealing with marauder groups inside their own country and the French presence in the Rhineland. So unless Poland threatens Germany, I don't see Germany threatening Poland any time soon.

The Soviets are undoubtedly a bigger problem, although I agree with Adm Lee and think that problem may diminish over time as units simply begin to disintegrate. I also think there may be a fair number of Soviet units on Polish soil who will be happy to stay put, and in doing so may possibly form local defence militias. I think it's possible that they may also enter into alliances, not only with the Poles but also possibly XI Corps in the north.

(What I'm thinking here is that a Soviet unit may be quiet comfortable billeted in a Polish town several hundred kilometres from Theatre HQ; the area may be relatively free of marauders, the Soviets have a good relationship with the locals who are providing them with food and other services, several of the Soviets may have become nvolved with local women, and then they receive orders to move to the Ukraine to fight the separatist forces there. How many units are going to simply ignore these orders, stay put, and gradually go native? I think quite a few; one Zampolit can hardly force a whole Company to move, and if he presses the issue too much then he risks a bullet in the back of the head).

Re: King Julian, he has to be a prime candidate for assasination I think. Any faction that can successfully kill him and replace him with their own man (or woman) has gained over de facto control of Silesia. If they can manage to blame another faction for the assasination, then that's an added bonus. I think that might some potential for a campaign, and is able to utilise the material already published by GDW for background.

Even killing him and not managing to replace him would be a partial success, as without him as a figurehead the armed forces under his command might disperse of their own accord.

I also wouldn't rule out French interference....when our group played Black Madonna all those years ago, we had Julian receiving "advice" from two DGSE agents who had been parachuted into Silesia. One was killed, one disppeared, to become the group's nemesis, returning from time to time.

As I said, just a few random thoughts...

pmulcahy11b

01-17-2010, 02:18 PM

Rainbow Six

01-17-2010, 02:44 PM

Based on that thread link you posted, here's another random thought -- the NCO and Officer-making process shows heavy US influence. Which in many ways does make sense to me, as a lot of US forces stayed behind in Poland after Op Omega.

Agreed.

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

simonmark6

01-17-2010, 03:43 PM

Looking at the 2300AD stuff, I am going to make a few guesses about how things go in the immediate future of Southern Poland.

1) Fillipowicz loses, either from pressures within and teh Polish partisans or from Krakow conquering him. The most fun RPwise would be for PCs to make the partisans successful enough to gain backing from Krakow and at some point Filipowicz is whacked.

2) Either the Czechs get their house in order and neutralise the rouge General or he is bought off/rubbed out.

3) This leaves an interesting campaing for the forces of Krakow to take out the deserters around Stoala Wola (sp?) who aren't likely to be absorbed or go away.

4) That would leave Krakow in a solid position with a good agricultural base and a platform for industrial restoration.

Legbreaker

01-17-2010, 05:20 PM

I think it makes a huge amount of sense for XI Corps to attempt form an alliance with Polish forces in the north after Omega. if nothing else, it may be a way for them to eventually get back to North America.

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

One cannot forget that Germany, backed up by Nato was seen by many eyes as the aggressor. After 4 solid years of war and Poland reduced to nothing more than rubble (and much of the damage done by NATO in the 1997 withdrawal as they threw nukes at the Pact forces), forgiveness and brotherhood are likely to be VERY rare virtues in the Polish people.

It is highly likely Polish troops may well be even more fanatical in driving out Nato than the Soviets ever were! It's just fortunate that the Germans and Poles are, at least in the lead up to Omega, at seperate ends of the border, otherwise there might be a few more mushroom clouds (figuratively speaking).

Raellus

01-17-2010, 05:48 PM

That's a good point, Legbreaker. By 2000, Poland's been fighting NATO for three years. There's likely to be a lot of bad blood.

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around. There's plenty for them to do back in the Fatherland.

Who knows how the Poles would approach the situation? If they do so pragmatically, then the Germans might be allowed to go in peace or even to stay in western Poland for a period of time. If the Poles chose to act emotionally, then fighting with NATO would probably continue. I just don't see that there is that much to gain from attacking NATO when there are bigger threats on Polish soil (marauders of various nationalities, Soviet units). I seriously doubt Germany would attempt offensive ops against Poland. There seems to me that there is much more to gain by both sides agreeing to at least a cease-fire, if not some sort of active cooperation.

Canon seems to suggest that the Germans are pulling back to and consolidating on German soil while most of the Americans are pulling out of Europe entirely during OMEGA. As several posters have pointed out, France is bigger threat/preoccupation for Germany than Poland is.

Of course, this all hinges on the Soviet question. If there isn't a significant Soviet pull out and/or collapse in Poland, then the Germans aren't likely to budge from Polish soil.

Prior to WWII, there were three attitudes held by Poles. In general, those living in the western part of Poland viewed the Germans as a bigger threat and were more likely to advocate cooperation with the Soviets. In the east, the exact opposite was true. And then, many Poles suscribed to the "doctrine of two enemies", and prefered to treat both with suspicion (if not outright hostility) and to keep both at arm's length. I can see these same ideas/attitudes prevalent in the Poland of 2000.

@Rainbow Six

I also believe that the French would be trying to exert their will in Poland. In my campaign, one of the PCs is a FFL direct action team member who was sent to Poland to find and recover the Black Madonna. The idea was to acquire a powerful religious symbol linking Catholic France and Catholic Poland which would give the French some sort of leverage in the political future of the post-war Poland.

Legbreaker

01-17-2010, 06:22 PM

I think the Germans are only in Poland to keep the Soviets at arms length. If the Soviet threat was lessened somehow (withdrawal, disintegration, defeat), I don't think the Germans would necessarily feel the need to stick around.

Go back and examine the cause of the war in Europe. Depending on the version, 7 ethnic Germans in the Polish Army were ordered to do something they objected to - In V1 I think it was being assigned to the Soviet-Chinese front, while in 2.0 and 2.2 it involved issues a little closer to home.

The Poles didn't like these 7 men disobeying their orders, and (rightfully in my mind) punished them for it - they were after all members of the UN recognised government of the country.

What was the German response to this essentially lawful act by the Poles? Invade a sovereign nation already preoccupied with a war on the other side of the world.

This might not be the whole story, but it's enough that many Poles will see clear comparisons to 1939 and earlier. One also has to remember that Poland is a fairly new country. Until relatively recently, Poland has been split up amongst it's neighbours, fought over countless times and generally been treated with complete distain. This historical chaos and repression doesn't just fade away into distant memory, especially when it's relived time and again by it's neighbours invading it.

Poland, while an ally in WWII, was badly treated by the west after the war (even during it I beleive in some cases). Nato grew out of the western allies and so it's probable a clear connection can be seen by many older Poles. Germany, their historical enemy joining Nato as a full member could well have been seen as a further slap in the face to those who'd suffered under the Nazi regime. The Soviets might not have been saints, but they were the ones in comtrol of the media since 1945. Propaganda against the west would only increase distrust and general loathing...

So why would the Germans remain in Poland? That's a question I can't answer without spending a lot more time on research. The fact that they are there would probably continue to drive Polish efforts to expel them while inflicting as much damage as they possibly could (not much really since the Poles have limited military resources left in comparison).

The US withdrawal and handover of heavy equipment to the Germans might well taint the US in the eyes of the Poles also. Their may well be less of them about, but handing over tanks, etc to their historical enemies isn't going to sit very well with them...

pmulcahy11b

01-17-2010, 06:29 PM

It might make sense in today's political and social climate, but Poland is still at war with Nato in 2000...

Is Poland still at war with anyone by 2000? Politically, officially maybe yes, but militarily? I think not.

Legbreaker

01-17-2010, 06:55 PM

I don't think it's written anywhere in canon that the war officially ends on any front. Even over in China, which was nuked back to the stone age quite early on, the war still "officially" rages.

While the ability of the various participants to continue is questionable, historical influences can't be ignored. The past 4 years of warfare in Europe will have created and increased a lot of bad blood - I can see a large number of war crimes and atrocities being committed by all sides (torture, prisoner executions, etc) as "payback" for issues both real and imagined.

The situation in Yugoslavia in the early to mid 90's is similar to the way I see much of Europe in T2K. Everyone with a grudge, no matter how minor, is probably going to pick up the nearest weapon and do something about it. With the lack of effective government and political systems (a mixed blessing IMO), it's not like laws will be enforced and "legal" punishments on perpetrators carried out.

Abbott Shaull

01-17-2010, 07:10 PM

Well there are couple things. The western one third of today Poland was once part of Germany before WWII. Also well as part of East Prussia that the Soviet claim as part of their prize after WWII.

Then you add into account that Poland for centuries was an occupied nations that have surrounded her for centuries. Before the Soviets it was the Prussians, Russians, and Austrians who had carved up Poland before WWI over the years. At time when Sweden was what we would call a super power by today standards, they to were an occupying nation of present day Poland.

After the war many of the of the Eastern European countries like Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Bulgaria, portions of Yugoslavia, and portions of Romania wouldn't be in to much of hurry to accept help from any of the former allies and enemies since they had been subject to occupation. Places like Hungary and Austria wouldn't be much better off since they were both at one time the power behind many of the occupations over the years.

No I see Poland going through a period where who ever finally comes to control over most of what is/was Poland would be very interested in keeping Germany, Austria, Hungary, and the Soviet Union off balance for some time to come. More so than the Soviet Union and Germany would want each other.

What the Polish have going for them is the only country who left standing who may want to help them is the French. Again how much would they trust the French if at all. The Poles in general would accept what limited foreign troops, especially if they aren't in control of the militia they are part of.

Legbreaker

01-17-2010, 07:20 PM

Abbott Shaull

01-17-2010, 07:51 PM

That's a good point about the Poles possibly accepting French aid - it's been a while since French soldiers tromped over Poland (back in Napoleons day I think).
However, would France be even remotely intested in helping Poland? What's in it for them...?

Two things...
1. Any country that stands in between them and Soviet that able to cause them a headache if they should ever get ready to drive west again would be a good thing for them. Even if the Soviets could bypass them they would like an ally to help or in most cases to go down with them.

2. With Poland gaining strength, both France and Poland could keep a eye on Germany and the like to make sure they don't get strong enough to attack either of them.

France is in a very unique position where it can help other nations who could be in position to keep others at disadvantage for some time to come. It not in great shape, but it still for lack of better term it is now the super power in the t2k timeline.

Cdnwolf

01-17-2010, 07:53 PM

Interesting thread...I read Rising 44 in 2003 when I was working in Warsaw...great book, slightly surreal reading it in the City where it happened...

I think a better read would be Mila 18 by Leon Uris about the ghetto uprising.. and the background history of the real reason the Uprising failed...

StainlessSteelCynic

01-17-2010, 08:23 PM

France and Poland have history that the Poles remember as being good for Poland, this may motivate them to initiate and/or accept talks with France especially with France playing no part in NATO operations.

Both links below discuss the effect Napoleonic France had on the formation of the Polish national identity.
http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=LTDMzQv2Qj42y5h1fQCdj p2lpwhhlyhGpjgpv4Wpp41vDQTpQ7Rx!351573012!-1739966991?docId=5001340286
http://www.poland.gov.pl/Napoleonic,times,,hopes,for,Poland,,7288.html
The fact that their anthem specifically names Napoleon Bonaparte as showing them the way to victory is an indicator of the influence the Poles believe he had on their quest for nationhood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_Is_Not_Yet_Lost The Polish national anthem

Adm.Lee

01-17-2010, 10:33 PM

France & Poland is very much a natural alliance. Any country that can be used to divert the Germans is an ally for whoever is a neighbor of Germany, it seems.
I can very easily see French influence appearing early on in Poland's recovery from the Twilight War.

Last night, I went looking at Going Home again. I saw about 10 centers for Poland to start organizing around. Up north, the American-Canadian enclave is very near several Polish units that have left the Pact in favor of the Polish Free Congress in Pila-- whatever that is. The PFC sounds like a pro-NATO, or at least anti-Soviet organization, I suspect CIA/DIA backing for it. Since there is nothing in the OMEGA OpOrder that implied it was pro-US, I wonder if it's instead supported by the French? Pila's one of the biggest un-destroyed cities around, too.
Major clusters of Soviets remaining, at least through the 2000-01 winter: around Lodz, Poznan, Torun, Lublin and western Silesia. I wonder if the Russified civilian population of Kalinigrad should count, too.
In addition to Krakow and Silesia, there is also an independent Polish group around Gdynia, the Warsaw militias, and the Black Baron between Bialystok and Warsaw. {Of course, we all know what happens to him!}

So, I rather like the Etranger summary-- several small forces coalesce into fewer groups, and eventually the two biggest ones fight it out, until the French step in and help them end it. Much like Germany, except the French work hard to make sure they stay divided.
My only quibble might be that the British might want to try to gain influence with one or another faction, as well. I guess they lost that one to the French. The Swedes and eastern German successor states might like to have friends there, too.

For a game, I'd like to get into a spy-like game using White Eagle, there's just so much to work with in there. If a ref could really play King Julian, that would be fantastic, he is a central figure to the region, given his power, ambition and personality. While knocking him off would be a task, setting things up so that the region doesn't lose the organization he stamped on it and fall further into anarchy is the bigger job. I could see a group of PCs working for any number of outside intel. agencies getting into that. Or mercenaries who couldn't be entirely sure about who they are working for at all!

Raellus

01-17-2010, 11:35 PM

Prompted by your post, Admiral, I too took another look at Going Home. There is certainly a lot to work with there.

I'm tentatively planning on mapping out all of the units listed as being on Polish soil in Going Home, as well as a key indicated each unit's "loyalty" status. When it's done, I'll make sure to post it here.

I'm in favor of the idea of French meddling... er... "involvement" in post-war Poland, although "post-war" may be a bit of a misnomer. I wonder if Twilight War would be an appropriate title since, by 2000, WWIII would have entered into a new lower-intensity phase, but one which nevertheless promises much more fighting to come.

The Poland of the winter of 2000-2001 is indeed a Balkanized mess and byzantine intrigues no doubt will abound there for some time.

My question is how could/would the French get their agents, supplies, covert-action teams, diplomats, etc. to Poland in late 2000 and thereafter? Crossing Germany by land and/or would be dangerous and provocative to say the least. By boat would be hazardous as well (mines, pirates, the last few vessels of the NATO and Soviet navies). A southern route from the Med would be long and perilous as well.

I see northern Poland as being the best option for the seat of a new Polish state because of the many Polish army units in that region. However, one would have to somehow tie them all back together and give them a unified purpose. This could make for an intriguing T2K campaign focussing on diplomacy.

Fusilier

01-18-2010, 04:51 AM

I wonder if Twilight War would be an appropriate.

I believe the 2300 continuation of the Twilight2000 timeline refers to the period from 2002 to many years on as the 'Contrail War'. Just another option.

Adm.Lee

01-18-2010, 10:13 AM

Prompted by your post, Admiral, I too took another look at Going Home. There is certainly a lot to work with there.

I'm tentatively planning on mapping out all of the units listed as being on Polish soil in Going Home, as well as a key indicated each unit's "loyalty" status. When it's done, I'll make sure to post it here.

My question is how could/would the French get their agents, supplies, covert-action teams, diplomats, etc. to Poland in late 2000 and thereafter? Crossing Germany by land and/or would be dangerous and provocative to say the least. By boat would be hazardous as well (mines, pirates, the last few vessels of the NATO and Soviet navies). A southern route from the Med would be long and perilous as well.

I see northern Poland as being the best option for the seat of a new Polish state because of the many Polish army units in that region. However, one would have to somehow tie them all back together and give them a unified purpose. This could make for an intriguing T2K campaign focussing on diplomacy.

I could see the French using their mostly-intact merchant marine and navy to insert their agents and aid across the Baltic. I think they should be able to suppress or scare off any pirates without a sweat. {If they really wanted to, I suspect they could airlift stuff-- how are the Germans going to stop them?} If the Danes and Swedes object to French ships transiting their straits, the French have carrots & sticks to use-- technical assistance with rebuilding or naval threats. Sweden should still have its population, army and navy, but I can't see them wanting to pick a fight with the last European power.
Were I the Danes, and the French came through and offered to help rebuild & repair power stations and shipping, I'd take 'em up on it.

Abbott Shaull

01-19-2010, 01:47 PM

Polish Free Congress in Pila-- whatever that is. The PFC sounds like a pro-NATO, or at least anti-Soviet organization, I suspect CIA/DIA backing for it.

I think this is in some form of the Polish Government in Exile that moved from London to physically inside Poland during the war. It is pro-NATO with help from largely the DIA.

Since there is nothing in the OMEGA OpOrder that implied it was pro-US, I wonder if it's instead supported by the French? Pila's one of the biggest un-destroyed cities around, too.

French weren't getting involved directly in Poland. They had agents there, I think I recall one operating in Krakow, but for a large part they were observers who would hire guns if they believe they could keep the French from appearing take one side over the other. The City of Pila size is one of the many reasons why Polish Free Congress has set up shop there.

Major clusters of Soviets remaining, at least through the 2000-01 winter: around Lodz, Poznan, Torun, Lublin and western Silesia. I wonder if the Russified civilian population of Kalinigrad should count, too.
I think many of these locations the Soviet units would stay put to reinforce the local militia or attempt to head home themselves. Many in the Soviet senior officers have had enough of the war. The few units who would want to continue the war would be in the minority by this point. Even the basic grunt knows that the enemy is 10 feet tall and is in as bad shape or worse than they are currently. As for Kalinigrad, this town is up for grabs, I can see where poles would try to claim it, or the Germans.

In addition to Krakow and Silesia, there is also an independent Polish group around Gdynia, the Warsaw militias, and the Black Baron between Bialystok and Warsaw. {Of course, we all know what happens to him!}

These are the areas where the remains of the Soviet KGB and GRU, along with intelligence services from every other country including Isreal. I wrote somewhere else it was the French agent in Krakow, but now I suddenly remember her being Isreal agent. All of these places will have agents from all over Europe trying to move these pockets in hope of them gaining full control of Poland and future ally.

Adm.Lee

01-19-2010, 02:09 PM

Abbott: I think you are remembering the Israeli agent in Krakow. I can't recall any French operatives in any module. What I am proposing is that French agents should be slipping in soon after the OMEGA evacuation. At the very least, they should be trying to find out what is going on there. Ditto for the Germans, really.

headquarters

01-19-2010, 02:45 PM

At the risk of getting us OT, the Black Death of the mid-14th century was no "simple" disease. Most modern scholars believe it was actually two diseases, Bubonic Plague and, later, the much more deadly Pneumonic Plague. Some people have postulated that it was actually neither but instead a hemoragic fever of some sort, much like Ebola.

Furthermore, medieval folks had no idea what caused it, maving prevention and treatment alomst impossible.

didnt it pop its head up a few years back with a few isolated cases in Asia somewhere ? I was led to belive that the diesease still lives on in vermin in Central Asia.

pmulcahy11b

01-19-2010, 04:55 PM

didnt it pop its head up a few years back with a few isolated cases in Asia somewhere ? I was led to belive that the diesease still lives on in vermin in Central Asia.

That's true, and it does periodically still pop up in southeast Asia. Some 200 US troops contracted bubonic plague during the Vietnam War before some numbskull at the Petagon finally figured out that we need to be vaccinating our troops against the Plague. Some 20 Americans every year get the plague every year because they let their cats run around outside, then come in the house -- Kitty's outside hunting, catches rats that have the fleas carrying plague, and then bring the fleas into their owners' houses. Think about all the stray kitties that little kids will pick up after the Twilight War...

Raellus

01-19-2010, 04:55 PM

didnt it pop its head up a few years back with a few isolated cases in Asia somewhere ? I was led to belive that the diesease still lives on in vermin in Central Asia.

It still pops up all over the world from time to time. A park ranger at the Grand Canyon in northern Arizona died from bubonic plague a couple of years ago. He apparently caught it from a dead mountain lion.

Raellus

01-19-2010, 05:01 PM

Legbreaker

01-19-2010, 05:09 PM

Back OT, I'm putting together a map of unit locations in Poland during the winter of 2000-2001.
I did this very exercise about a week or two ago on paper, at least as far as they'd gotten by October - November. I'll email it to you when I get a chance.
Most units are shown to be in almost the same locations as at 01JUL00. Taking it a bit further, those units mentioned in the Return series are shown to have moved very little - no more than about 100km.
By November I would think most units not already in cantonments would be looking around seriously for somewhere to shelter over winter. Any move would likely have to wait until spring 2001.

Raellus

01-19-2010, 05:20 PM

I did this very exercise about a week or two ago on paper, at least as far as they'd gotten by October - November. I'll email it to you when I get a chance.
Most units are shown to be in almost the same locations as at 01JUL00. Taking it a bit further, those units mentioned in the Return series are shown to have moved very little - no more than about 100km.
By November I would think most units not already in cantonments would be looking around seriously for somewhere to shelter over winter. Any move would likely have to wait until spring 2001.

True, regarding unit locations. My map will also include unit "loyalty" info as well. What has changed by winter 2000 is that many units are either no longer accepting orders from higher HQ or are still loyal but unwilling to take offensive action. A few seem to have hunkered down with plans to become a particular locality's permanent militia.

This info will be helpful in charting out how Poland might look further on down the line.

Legbreaker

01-19-2010, 06:39 PM

My focus has been on charting unit loyalties and strengths leading up to summer of 2000. If I can track that and their positions, I can judge what Pact commanders might have thought about the possible offensive options available to them and come up with a plan that might actually have worked (if Nato hadn't jumped first).

Raellus

01-19-2010, 07:41 PM

Abbott Shaull

01-19-2010, 07:55 PM

Abbott Shaull

01-19-2010, 08:11 PM

Back on topic, I'm putting together a map of unit locations in Poland during the winter of 2000-2001.

The U.S. XI Corps controls a good chunk of NW Poland. Not far from this enclave is the town of Pila, listed as the seat of the "Polish Free Congress". This PFC controls a couple of Polish military units, including a fairly powerful MRD.

AKAIK, the PFC is not described in detail anywhere. Due to its physical proximity to XI Corps' redoubt, I think its fairly safe to assume that a cooperative relationship between the two entities (i.e. that it is pro-western/anti-Soviet).

Did I miss something. Do any of you know of any canonical references to this PFC?

The PFC was formed in 1997 when NATO moved into Poland. Lot of the members of this government were the remains of the Polish Government in Exile that has/was based in London since WWII even though it was recognized as such since the end of WWII due to treaties, IIRC. It one of the those things if you not specifically looking for it, was easy to overlook.

Either way it was an organization that NATO propped up and inserted inside Poland during the Offensive and it remained in Poland after the withdraw being supported by NATO and their special operation units and intel networks. I don't think they worked well with the Germans though. As for working with French, it will be 50-50 chance especially if I am correct and they were based in London.

Legbreaker

01-19-2010, 09:36 PM

So basically the PFC is little more than a Nato propaganda tool, or puppet at best....

Rainbow Six

01-20-2010, 07:44 AM

The PFC was formed in 1997 when NATO moved into Poland. Lot of the members of this government were the remains of the Polish Government in Exile that has/was based in London since WWII even though it was recognized as such since the end of WWII due to treaties, IIRC. It one of the those things if you not specifically looking for it, was easy to overlook.

Either way it was an organization that NATO propped up and inserted inside Poland during the Offensive and it remained in Poland after the withdraw being supported by NATO and their special operation units and intel networks. I don't think they worked well with the Germans though. As for working with French, it will be 50-50 chance especially if I am correct and they were based in London.

Wikipedia has a page on the Polish Government in Exile. Must confess that whilst I was aware it had existed during WW2, I'd no idea it carried on after the end of the War

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_government-in-exile

Sounds like it was a fairly low key organisation even during the Cold War...

On another matter, anyone given any thought to what influence the Pope might play? IRL John Paul II didn't die until 2005, so may still be alive in the T2K timeline - I've always liked the idea of him being offered sanctuary in either France or Switzerland.

I'd have thought that having the support of John Paul II would be a huge boost for any faction in Poland. Even those who don't have any support (such as King Julian) might claim that they did have the Pope's backing as a way to increase their popularity.

Presumably it wouldn't be too difficult to produce forged letters, get a tame Priest, dress him in Cardinal's robes and produce him to the people, where he says that he has come from wherever the Pope happens to be with a message from the Holy Father recognising Julian (or whoever) as the legitimate ruler of Poland...

Adm.Lee

01-20-2010, 11:52 AM

Where he is depends on the Italian government, mostly. A pope going into France has a really, really bad precedent (look up anti-pope, Avignon, etc.), but Switzerland is possible, if he felt he had to leave Rome. It doesn't seem like something he would do, though.

I do agree, having the Pope's (or even a Cardinal's) blessing would be HUGE for a Polish ruler-to-be. Someone missing from Krakow would be the Archbishop there-- in the days of the monarchy, the Primate would stand in for the King between the death of one and the election of the next.

Given the anti-Communist stance of the Polish Church, I suspect once the war started, the Polish government cracked down on the church pretty hard, driving the hierarchy and parish priests into hiding or prison. I bet many of the warlords emerging (Julian, Krakow, PFC, etc.) would re-open churches as soon as possible, to gain loyalty of the people.

Re: the Polish Free Congress: I didn't think there was anything linking them to the WW2 Government in Exile, but I could be wrong. Given the relative power levels and living conditions of France and Britain in 2000-01, it could be easy for the French to win some or all of the London element to come to Paris.

Raellus

01-20-2010, 07:37 PM

Perhaps the Pope spoke out actively against Poland's involvement in the USSR's war against China or supported Polish exiles after the war began in Europe. Perhaps the Soviet government pressed newly allied Italy to turn the Polish pope over or perhaps the church hierarchy feared a KGB or GRU assassination plot, either aided or abetted by the Italian government. Perhaps the KGB approached some cardinals who wanted to depose the Pope and install someone more to their liking and promised to help get him out of the way. Either way, the Pope and his aides decided it would be safer to move their operations to neutral Switzerland.

Raellus

01-20-2010, 07:45 PM

Back to U.S. XI Corps. Why do you think SACEUR gave up hope of recovering them during OMEGA? I understand that XI Corps may have had good reason to stay put but those divisions represent significant combat power and it seems odd that the architects of Omega would just write them off.

Could the XI Corps have expressed CivGov sympathies? Could their "abandonment" have been a political move?

The presence of the Polish Free Congress in nearby Pila could be a clue. MilGov was essentially abandoning the PFC to its own devices. What if CivGov made the PFC an offer of direct assistance. Perhaps CivGov saw an opportunity to maintain a military presence in Europe. XI Corps plus the Polish forces loyal to the PFC could create a relatively powerful, pro-western, pro-CivGov enclave in NW Poland- an American bridgehead in Europe, of sorts.

Legbreaker

01-20-2010, 08:58 PM

WWIII is a mess.

It's a conflict involving far more than just two sides. For example, just because Italy is fighting Nato doesn't mean they're allied to the Soviets and in fact I wouldn't be suprised if Pact forces and the Italians were put into the same room, there'd be bloodshed (or at least harsh words).

This is one of the issues facing Nato when they chose to run the Greek blockade and deliver badly needed supplies to Turkey in 97. Suddenly the war in central Europe was on two fronts against two seperate and essentially unassociated enemies.

pmulcahy11b

01-20-2010, 09:42 PM

Raellus

01-19-2011, 09:39 PM

I'm working on my operational map for Poland during the winter of 2000-2001 again and I thought I'd resurrect this thread instead of starting another.

Back to U.S. XI Corps. Why do you think SACEUR gave up hope of recovering them during OMEGA? I understand that XI Corps may have had good reason to stay put but those divisions represent significant combat power and it seems odd that the architects of Omega would just write them off.

Could the XI Corps have expressed CivGov sympathies? Could their "abandonment" have been a political move?

The presence of the Polish Free Congress in nearby Pila could be a clue. MilGov was essentially abandoning the PFC to its own devices. What if CivGov made the PFC an offer of direct assistance. Perhaps CivGov saw an opportunity to maintain a military presence in Europe. XI Corps plus the Polish forces loyal to the PFC could create a relatively powerful, pro-western, pro-CivGov enclave in NW Poland- an American bridgehead in Europe, of sorts.

Going Home states that "The XI Corps was cut off from higher headquarters after the Pact counteroffensive of July, and has remained in its positions out of necessity rather than by choice. It has been written off by USAEUR. The XI US Corps HQ staff is currently wintering in Kolobrzeg, Poland, along with the remnants of the 50th US AD. As of the beginning of the adventure, word of the evacuation has just arrived. Most of the Corps' personnel will decide to remain in place rather than risk the journey to Bremerhaven." (Going Home, p. 14)

This suggests that powerful Pact forces stand between XI Corps and Bremerhaven prior to and during Operation Omega. However, no Pact forces in Going Home or any other canonical source list any Pact forces in that area. It's a straight shot from Kolobrzeg west into Germany, with absolutely no enemy forces standing in the way.

What gives? Where and what is the ghost PACT army that's standing in the way of XI Corps and Bremerhaven? Is there another explanation for XI Corp's decision to stay behind in Poland instead of participating in the evacuation?

I have a slightly non-canonical explanation (see the embedded post quote above) but I'm wondering what if ya'll can come up with another plausible explanation.

Legbreaker

01-19-2011, 09:53 PM

The German III Corps offensive, specifically what happened to XI Corps is one of my pet projects. :D
http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=354 has a long and detailed discussion.

The XI Corp is cut off from friendly forces not so much by the Soviets as by the terrain – the Oder river and numerous interconnected lakes form a water barrier from Szczecin to the Baltic. The Corp is still in contact by sea with Germany, but any move to rejoin allied forces would require an offensive against Pact divisions to the south and east of the irradiated ruins of Szczecin. Some supply is possible by available shipping, but there is not enough capacity remaining after the spring debacle to withdraw even a small part of the Corp. Port facilities are likewise limited with most supplies having to be brought directly onto the beaches by small boat.
My comments reposted above are about the most logical explaination I've been able to come up with - terrain is the main enemy although some Pact presence in the form of patrols (in addition to the lack of necessary equipment and materials) prohibits XI Corp from trying to rebuild crossing points.
Individuals and small units (up to say plattoon size) can be transfered back and forth by sea, but to evacuate the Corps would require many months and the abandonment of all heavy equipment (anything that can't be manhandled onto a small boat).

Travel by land would require a unit to push south as far as Berlin (perhaps even beyond) and almost certainly into contact with hostile forces. XI Corp also doesn't have the fuel, nor ammunition required to mount any sort of serious offensive action to clear their path.

Snake Eyes

01-20-2011, 01:07 AM

Is there another explanation for XI Corp's decision to stay behind in Poland instead of participating in the evacuation?

One current trend in discourse around these parts would point to the Corps HQ being staffed with an overabundance of brass, the majority of whom of course could not be reasonably expected to find their own assholes with both hands and a flashlight.

Abbott Shaull

01-20-2011, 02:52 AM

I really believe it was all due to the timing of things. Remember it was already late June maybe even July when this went to hell for the XI Corps. Given it location in Poland, and being that they were no longer in contact with NATO lines. Maybe the higher commands realized that the XI Corps had other more pressing issues. Like securing food and shelter for the troops until plan to extract them could be developed and acted upon.

The NATO had been caught completely by surprise how fast the the Soviets were able to move the 22nd Cavalry and 4th Guards Tank Armies. At this time when they were closing in on the 5th Mechanized Division it was only then that the XI Corps Commander faced a hard chose. The 5th was too far south and out on it own. The 8th had equally went out on it own. As the Third German Army and III German Corps started to pull back. The Corps commander was left with hard choice. If he withdrew it would mean 3/4 of his command would be either destroyed or isolated.

If he broke contract with the III German Corps and consolidated the remains of his Corps and hope bits and pieces of the 5th and 8th would make their way back to the Corps. At about this time from NATO Supreme Commander on down to at least Corps level HQs realized the 4th Guards Tanks Army, may have been for something else. The 22nd Cavalry Army well it could be debated either way if they were part of the planned offensive or if they meant to do other operations.

What many Divisional and Corps/Army Commanders had already knew on both sides was any extensive Offensive would led to units effective fighting themselves into non-existence. For NATO the break down wasn't as complete, but with the lot of the Fourth US Army deciding to stay put to help the Germans. While other units had decided to stay in parts of Germany for other reasons.

On the Pact side you see several Front HQ and Army HQ ceasing to exist as they were absorbed into Division. Those that still existed had very few units still responding to them. The exception were units in Austria that really didn't get into the fighting during the Spring/Summer, and those few units of the 4th Soviet Guard Tank Army. Many of the Soviet Divisional Commanders if not higher HQ Commanders were already making plans to go home come in 2001. Much like the US Army, Europe and the UK Army of the Rhine had decide after the 2000 Offensive. They realize continuing the war just because no one was willing to give the order to quit.

For the Soviet Divisional Commanders it was hard decision. Either they can withdraw and lose control of their combat force as bits and pieces split off to do their own thing. Or stay put and try to rebuild where ever they were and use what they could do to help rebuild in their locality as part of new emerging governments.

I see the US XI Corps Commander has to worry about moving heavy equipment and once they got back to NATO lines, how would they NATO Command fit the units. At best his unit would be push to some area that wasn't prepared for the Corps. Worse his command would be split up, since he lost 2 Division.

Either way if he made it back to NATO lines he would lose his job, even if events happen so fast that everything was out of his control when it was realized the Soviet were mounting a major counter-offensive. So I think it was the fact he was looking to save what was left of his combat forces. He knew that if he stay where he was he could get the Corps organized and set up for the coming winter. If he did it correctly and not alienate the local Polish population he may be able to keep things together and working with them improve everyone situation.

Many of the Polish units that had declared for the Polish Free Congress had only done so after the fighting had settled down. Those that had remain loyal to the Pact probably had done so due to the closeness of Soviet commands, yet again many of the Soviet commands were crumbling too. Even a Division of the 22nd Cavalry Army had defected en-mass during the counter-offensive.

By July 2000 almost everyone realize that fighting the old war was pointless. They all had started to think about either rebuilding where they were or making their way home. The only place where the fighting was still going on limited was the Middle East. Even there it still small affair of raids. The Third Army wasn't in no shape to push the Soviet Armies out of Iran. By the same token the Soviet Front in Iran line of communication threatened at best due to various mutinies along their supply line knew their was very little they could do. They were in the same position of the US XI Corps. It was better to consolidate and hope for improvement.

sglancy12

01-20-2011, 03:04 AM

France and Poland have history that the Poles remember as being good for Poland, this may motivate them to initiate and/or accept talks with France especially with France playing no part in NATO operations.

Damn. You totally beat me to the punch Cynic. Now all I can do is pretend to be smart by commenting on your smartness.

Nice catch about the Polish National Anthem mentioning Napoleon. That's news to me.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

StainlessSteelCynic

01-20-2011, 03:40 AM

Damn. You totally beat me to the punch Cynic. Now all I can do is pretend to be smart by commenting on your smartness.

Nice catch about the Polish National Anthem mentioning Napoleon. That's news to me.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

Thank you for the compliment :)
Basically I'm a trivia whore :p I like accumulating all those random bits and pieces of information and while I can't usually give specific details like exact dates and so on, I remember enough info to use it as a 'head start' into the topic (particularly useful as a quick leap for doing a web search) or to see some of the links from the various smaller things into the 'big picture'.

Adm.Lee

01-20-2011, 12:21 PM

In addition to being cut off by terrain and (potential) Pact forces, I'll stick to my opinion that the XI US Corps leadership is influenced by the Polish Free Congress representatives that are with them. The PFC is still trying to win over nearby Polish forces, despite their failure to do much before the offensive. In addition, the "loss of contact" implies to me that after the III German Corps broke contact, the Americans lost faith in their higher-ups. If we further assume some kind of communications breakdown (loss of radios or codes or whatever), then they are truly out of contact.

Where they are, the remainder of XI Corps can try to make the best of a bad situation. Every other NATO unit that's tried to leave their position (5th Mech, 8th Mech, even III Corps) has been driven back or swallowed up by the Pact forces all around. I can certainly see why they want to hunker down for the foreseeable future.

Abbott Shaull

01-20-2011, 12:28 PM

Legbreaker

01-20-2011, 04:48 PM

I don't see the PFC being much of an influence on the XI Corp at all. What can they really offer the Corp that they either don't have already, or can simply reach out and take?

Raellus

01-20-2011, 05:38 PM

I don't see the PFC being much of an influence on the XI Corp at all. What can they really offer the Corp that they either don't have already, or can simply reach out and take?

They're stronger together. An adversarial relationship will only harm both parties. Their respective territories are adjacent if not overlapphing. They are both hostile to the Soviets and their lackeys. It would be quite odd, IMHO, if they chose not to work closely together.

Raellus

01-20-2011, 06:04 PM

I don't buy the "geography" explanation. As the crow flies, the XI is really not all that far from Bremerhaven. Quite a few of the American units listed as "in transit" to the evac point are travelling much greater distances (from Austria, for example) in order to get there. Even if the various river bridges between the Kolobrzeg region and Bremerhaven were down, the XI should include adequate engineer and bridging units to get the bulk of the Corps' men, if not its vehicles, across. I don't see hanging on to their AFVs as being an issue as OMEGA dictates that they be left behind anyway. They could simply be driven to the nearest uncrossable river and scuttled.

Furthermore, the Danish Jutland division somehow made it home. They were listed as being in NW Poland with the XI Corps in the summer but, by Going Home, they have successfully made the journey back to Denmark. Didn't some German units attached to or working alongside the XI Corps also return to German after the failure of the summer offensive? If they can make it that far W, why can't the remainder of the Corps?

There's got to be some other factor/s keeping the XI Corps en situ during OMEGA.

The NATO had been caught completely by surprise how fast the the Soviets were able to move the 22nd Cavalry and 4th Guards Tank Armies. At this time when they were closing in on the 5th Mechanized Division it was only then that the XI Corps Commander faced a hard chose. The 5th was too far south and out on it own. The 8th had equally went out on it own. As the Third German Army and III German Corps started to pull back. The Corps commander was left with hard choice. If he withdrew it would mean 3/4 of his command would be either destroyed or isolated.

This is an interesting point, Abbott, and one that I hadn't considered. There may some merit to it. I wondering though, would the Corps commander risk the remainder of his command being stranded indefinitely in Poland in the hope that the bulk of the 5th and 8th IDs return? By the time the OMEGA orders are issued, he must have received enough intel to have reached the conclusion that the 5th was all but annihilated. The 8th might be in better shape, but why strand several divisions to wait for only one? Once again, there's got to be something else going on.

It might be a bit of an intellectual copout, but perhaps all of the factors identified so far are in play. Perhaps a more holistic explanation incorporating geography, fraternity, politics, and logistics is in order.

Another idea- forgive me if it's been mentioned previously- supporting the notion that XI Corps' decision to stay in Poland is, at least in part, voluntary is that XI Corps has invested so much time and energy into developing its cantonments in NW Poland, that many of the men have put down roots there and simply don't want to leave. Assuming the various components of XI Corps have been stationed/operating in NW Poland since at least the Spring of 2000, it's possible that there's a sense of belonging/ownership has developed. Perhaps, when given the choice between a long and difficult forced march west, over difficult terrain (geography), to face a long and dangerous ocean voyage back to a devastated country that many of them haven't seen in 2-3 (or more) years, or a relatively safe, well supplied cantonment in a place they've lived and fought in for nearly as long, many men decided on the latter option. Perhaps some of the men have married local women and possibly even started families there?

If the men of XI Corps feel that they have a personal stake in NW Poland, then it stands to reason that they cooperate with the PFC and those former PA units loyal to it.

helbent4

01-20-2011, 06:22 PM

They're stronger together. An adversarial relationship will only harm both parties. Their respective territories are adjacent if not overlapphing. They are both hostile to the Soviet's and their lackeys. It would be odd, IMHO, if they chose not to work together.

Rae,

I would agree, the military benefits are obvious. An ally would at least protect your flank, if nothing else. The PFC needs all the friends it can get, and XI Corps are natural allies.

Politically, there are benefits for the PFC, if they can work out a polite fiction the XI Corps is there at their behest and that they retain sovereign control over the combined territory. This is much how foreign recognition enhances the legitimacy of a government.

On XI Corp's side, they would actually derive some benefit themselves from the arrangement. If nothing else, they are less likely to be treated as hostile occupiers. (Not impossible but at least less likely.) They would have translators at the least, at best if the PFC administers their territory on behalf of the Free Polish government they wouldn't have to take that responsibility on themselves. At least at the time of "Going Home", XI Corps is not planning on staying permanently so there's little to gain by exercising direct controlling Polish territory if there's someone willing to administer it for them.

I think you'd at least see direct liaisons between HQs with the exchange of officers, with regular communications established.

Tony

Legbreaker

01-20-2011, 07:47 PM

Raellus

01-20-2011, 08:07 PM

The point about the Danes is a good one, however I believe that can be explained fairly simply.

The Danes were held in reserve by the XI Corps and were therefore further west at the time the Corp came under threat of being cut off. The bulk of the Corp was in fact spread out over a very wide area - the 5th ID down to the southeast, 8th disappeared over the eastern horizon and the 2nd Marines stretched over the Vistula delta.

If you follow my assessment of the offensive, the entire Corps was short on fuel due to loss of shipping capacity in the Baltic (this loss of shipping also helps explain why the Corps can't be evacuated by sea).

The Danes however were probably the link unit between the US/Canadians and the Germans. They were able to squeeze back into Germany before the route was cut by the advancing Pact forces - the remainder of the Corp too crippled by the fuel shortage to move fast enough (and the Marines still spread across numerous rivers).

Although crippled by the lack of fuel, the XI Corps still posed enough of a challenge defensively to deter the Pact forces from pressing against their enclave in an attempt to push them into the sea - the XI Corp still possessed much of the ammunition, food and other stores gathered over the preceeding months, even years for their intended offensive operations.

It makes sense, and I'm tempted to buy in, but, who are these advancing Pact forces? Where did they go? Why aren't they still between the remainder of XI Corps (the "trapped" bits) and Bremerhaven when OMEGA gets under way. There's nothing listed in that area in Going Home. If there are no enemy forces between their cantonments and Bremerhaven, why can't the elements of XI Corps just walk west? Several units in Germany are listed as legging it towards the evac point, so it's not unprecendented. A fuel shortage explains, in large part, the ultimate failure of the Summer XI Corps offensive but it doesn't explain the failure of XI Corps to evacuate northern Poland in the fall. The fuel issue, at the time Omega is unveiled, is kind of moot. Like I said before, if XI Corps is out of gas, why wouldn't it just scuttle its tanks in place and hoof it?

If the answer is enemy forces to the west, where are they? If they're not strong enough to merit a mention in any of the canonical sources, then they shouldn't be much of an obstacle to a powerful NATO Corps.

If the widely scattered 2nd MarDiv can reassemble and return to its cantonment by the time the OMEGA orders come down- fuel shortages and everything- why can't it continue west? There are hostile Pact forces at several points along the Baltic Coast and elements of the 2nd MarDiv would presumably had to have fought through a couple of those as well to reassemble at its fall cantonment. If they could do that, why couldn't the entire XI Corps break out to the west?

I really wish we could get an original developers explanation for why XI Corps stays behind in Poland.

sglancy12

01-20-2011, 09:37 PM

Raellus

01-20-2011, 09:46 PM

I'm just going to say this so that we can acknowledge it and move back to the process of trying to force sense out of why XI Corps would just sit on its hands and watching TF 34 sail over the horizon.

This is a continuity error. Plain and simple.The writer claims IX Corp is cut off by Pact Forces and then failed to position any Pact Forces to do the job. Just an oversight.

Now, back to the RetCon.

So, the RetCon is to place a PACT Corps between U.S. XI Corps and German III Corps? I'm game.

Abbott Shaull

01-20-2011, 10:17 PM

There were some Polish Troops, also there may have been rumors of Soviet troops moving north which some did during the counter offensive. Granted after the bulk of the one Polish Army more or less switch sides and several of the rest of the Polish army units making the consideration.

Now the real trick is how whatever Governments reclaim control of Germany and Poland do get along. The III German Corps withdrawing wouldn't make many friends with the Poles. The Poles in all aspect wouldn't really be too friendly to the UK or the French either. They were both part of the selling them out to the Soviets, even though the French were along for the ride at that point.

So even with large Pro-NATO in northern Poland. The government would not really trust the Germans who they felt started the war to begin with. UK would be trusted but within reason, they did after all allow the Government-in-Exile to continue to function in London even after they handed Poland to the Soviets. France it saving grace is the long history of alliances at times when the Polish were free against the various common enemies (ie Germans, Austria-Hungarian Empire, Russia) in the pass and they pulled out of the NATO and didn't actively take part in the what they would of seen as the German led invasion during WWIII.

As for the French being able to provide aid, well they will certainly have agents all over Europe. Them and Isreal will have several agents at the various large power centers in Central and Eastern Europe trying to make sure that only the ones they supported would eventual rule over these regions.

As for real physical help, for Poland at least they will stay away at least Northern Poland. Southern Poland would be pretty much cut off from formal help from the French, unless the France would be willing to use their Air Force to send aid. Two reason with troop on the Rhine region of Germany and not being in NATO, these two countries are more or less in undeclared war. France is in no position to slug it out with a weaken German Army and lay claim to more devastated areas.

Not only that the French would be interested in standing up the other Baltic State and other regions of Europe back on the path of stabilization. For nothing else to make sure they don't have to spread out their already spread out force.

Legbreaker

01-20-2011, 10:28 PM

Abbott Shaull

01-20-2011, 10:54 PM

The XI Corps, at least the Canadians, 50th AD and 2nd Marines, is still a very strong formation. Writing off that firepower isn't somethng ANYONE is going to do lightly, even if it's preventing large scale evacuation.
As I've proposed, some transportation is available between XI Corps and the remainder of Nato, which would allow the transfer of individuals between them. Some from XI may wish to go home, while, as we know from Going Home, many other US troops chose, for various reasons, to stay - these people may choose to move into XI Corps AO.

The thought may be that with approximately 1/4 of US manpower staying in Europe, a second evacuation may occur in the following months. While waiting for this to be organised, XI could have been distilling fuel for a breakout to the south and west, taking with them absolutely TRUCKLOADS of vehicles, ammunition and other stores, all vital to either the Germans, or US recovery.

I believe those other than the XI Corps have chosen to stay. Of course, there will be this unit or that missed the boat, but for the large part units like the one Brigade from the 44th Armor Division and 11th Armor Cavalry Regiment stayed for various reason. One was to get power plant operation and set up their own kingdom if not use it as resource for the coming 'power' struggles, while the other returned to the region it was deployed before the war (which didn't make sense in the overall picture of things, but hey it was their story) that some in the unit still had ties too. The rest of the units of the US 7th and 4th Army and the other Corps that had been attached to a German Army that had stayed had done so in order to help the Germans rebuild.

If there was 2nd evacuation it would for the US XI Corp assuming that Northern Poland did stay with NATO.

As for the Corps staying, these units have learned what the Armies of Centuries past had already known. Once summer has past, it was time to start to preparing winter quarters. This would include setting up a Corps Supply Base, Divisional Supply, and Brigade/Regimental Supply Bases and then setting up the various Battalions, Squadrons, Companies, and Troops in an array to control the Corps XI as well as train local militia and police units.

IF the Corps decide to move, there was no way know for sure they would make it. No one in Germany would of been able to absorb and the pain in ass to realign units to give XI Corps a part of the line or place it in reserve. It would mean the Corps would have to start from scratch if they were placed in reserve and pissing off the local population when they realize their food stores would have to be shared with their new neighbors. Or much worse the Corps and the units they displace would have to build up, not from scratch, but the confusion during this time would lend itself where units would be more prone to Pact attack/raids.

I think it was probably the hardest choice that was made with the Supreme Commander, US Army, Europe Commander, and US XI Corps Commander and their HQs already having access these questions. Not know how loyal the newly NATO flagged Poles would be and if they would mind the units they had previous been fighting month ago would let their former enemy free passage too. Beside the unknown of the fighting effectiveness of the Soviet units moved north to replace the Polish units that were fighting the 3rd German Army during the offensive and the run away 5th and 8th US Mechanized Divisions.

Legbreaker

01-21-2011, 12:29 AM

A second evac would indeed have to be aimed mainly at extracting the XI Corp, however those units which stayed to assist in rebuilding would surely find a berth available also.
A second evac would be much smaller than Omega and require a lot less resources. It's also presumable that the Nato commanders acknowledged the war was effectively over in September/October 2000 or else they probably wouldn't have authorised Omega. By Spring 2001, there may be enough Pact units withdrawn to allow XI Corp a decent chance too.

helbent4

01-21-2011, 05:35 AM

I'm just going to say this so that we can acknowledge it and move back to the process of trying to force sense out of why XI Corps would just sit on its hands and watching TF 34 sail over the horizon.

This is a continuity error. Plain and simple.The writer claims IX Corp is cut off by Pact Forces and then failed to position any Pact Forces to do the job. Just an oversight.

Now, back to the RetCon.

Scott,

Part of the retcon could be that XI Corps feared there were PacWar forces in between them and Bremerhaven. Given the state of intelligence gathering, it's possible that they mistook the position of real PacWar forces or the blocking force is completely imaginary.

Tony

Rainbow Six

01-21-2011, 06:58 AM

This is probably a bit out of the box, but from time to time I've thought about the possibility of XI Corps "catching a lift" with the BAOR when it returns to the UK.

My thinking (which I haven't gone into in any great detail as it's not something that I would use myself*) is something along the lines of HMG offering space to XI Corps on the ships sent to bring the BAOR back to the UK (possibly with whatever AFV's and heavy equipment they can get to Bremerhaven); the British might even be able to send ships right into the Baltic to pick them up.

In return for this XI Corps would then assist HMG in restoring order in the UK (and considerable assistance that would be - it would I think virtually double the manpower available to HMG). The last part of the deal would involve HMG supplying transport for XI Corps to ultimately return to the US (and Canada) some time towards the end of 2001 (Of course I'm sure anyone that wanted to stay in the UK would be made quite welcome...). Again, this would be with whatever AFV's etc they had brought with them from Europe, so there is a long term benefit there for (presumably) Milgov. Also saves Milgov having to arrange a second evacuation.

So...really just a random thought...XI Corps get a ride home courtesy of the British Government late in 2001 in exchange for six months of peacekeeping in the UK..

(*Main reason I wouldn't use it as I think that having such a large body of reasonably well equipped and experienced troops available would heavily tilt the balance of power in favour of HMG and mean that law and order would be restored much quicker, which I don't think would be conducive to decent RP'ing opportunities - for example I don't think the Duke of Cornwall or any of the separatist Governments would stand much of a chance against them)

Legbreaker

01-21-2011, 08:20 AM

Although XI Corp have their backs solidly against the ocean, there simply aren't any port facilities in the area capable of handling them, even today. Throw in several years of warfare and nukes, and....

For the XI Corp to go anywhere, it has to be by land, at least in the initial stages.

Abbott Shaull

01-21-2011, 09:17 AM

That is the entire point by Spring or early Summer 2001 there may be enough withdrew/faded away/change sides from in between the German III Corps and the US XI Corps?

Then the next question is how much of the of the forces left in this area are Pro-NATO and if they would it be more productive to keep the XI Corps there to keep their portion of Poland stabilized long enough for the for NATO friendly government in Poland to take control of their region.

With the US and UK largely out of the fight. What is left of NATO on the main land have to turn their attention toward rebuilding and consolidating. I am sure there would be number of troops who would want to leave for home in the XI Corps, but I don't see Germany, Danish, Sweden, or any other government that was still left in NATO in 2001 being willing to support such a move. As a whole what remains of NATO would be disappointed in both the US and UK for their leaving them high and dry. Not many of the Governments could blame the US or UK doing so.

What real value would the US and/or the UK would get out of the XI Corps even if they were able to withdraw the remains of the Corps including the the remains of the II MEF which would have collapse upon the 2nd Marine Division. I am sure the remains of the various elements of German, Polish, and Danish Governments would love to keep the XI Corps in their region to help rebuild.

Rainbow Six

01-21-2011, 09:44 AM

What real value would the US and/or the UK would get out of the XI Corps even if they were able to withdraw the remains of the Corps including the the remains of the II MEF which would have collapse upon the 2nd Marine Division.

I've said before that I personally think that as soon as the BAOR comes home the game is up for most if not all of the separatist and marauder elements in the UK - quantitively and qualitively I don't think they are any match for the BAOR. The only question is how long they can hold out (and how much damage they inflict on HMG whilst doing so).

XI US Corps (or even a relatively small part thereof) would be an immense force multiplier. I'm not suggesting thay a combined BAOR / XI Corps would "pacify" the country in six months, but XI Corps' presence could (I think) significantly reduce the time that it takes HMG to get large parts of the country back under control.

I am sure the remains of the various elements of German, Polish, and Danish Governments would love to keep the XI Corps in their region to help rebuild.

I don't doubt it, however what the UK Government might - and it is a very big might - be able to offer that others cannot is an eventual way home to North America. We know from canon that the UK has sufficient shipping to withdraw two Divisions with equipment at some point in time and also has access to North Sea oil, so there is a possibility that eventually those who want to go home can do so. And as I mentioned previously, there's an added benefit to the US Government inasmuch as they eventually get more troops home, possibly with AFV's and heavy equipment without having to arrange the evacuation themselves - the British do everything for them.

Like I said, it is a totally random, and in some ways totally "out there" idea, and there are problems - Leg pointed out the lack of suitable ports on the Baltic, which simply never crossed my mind...but maybe it could work...

Fusilier

01-21-2011, 12:45 PM

If there are no enemy forces between their cantonments and Bremerhaven, why can't the elements of XI Corps just walk west? A fuel shortage explains, in large part, the ultimate failure of the Summer XI Corps offensive but it doesn't explain the failure of XI Corps to evacuate northern Poland in the fall.

It can, if the nearby Pact units to the East are still mechanized and mobile. There doesn't have to be anyone blocking them in the West.

If they hoof it out on foot, leaving their heavy armor behind, then the Pact units nearby won't have a hard time running them down, outmanuevering them, and simply using superior (one sided now) firepower.

XI Corps can be fixed in place, unable to move, because if they do they won't be able to break contact and will be ultimately overwhelmed. Their armour and artillery would be like a double edged sword - keeping them alive but helplessly trapped at the same time.

Raellus

01-21-2011, 12:50 PM

Part of the retcon could be that XI Corps feared there were PacWar forces in between them and Bremerhaven. Given the state of intelligence gathering, it's possible that they mistook the position of real PacWar forces or the blocking force is completely imaginary.

Intel gathering in 2000 is definitely not what it was in early '97, but XI Corps should have enough recon assets (LRS companies, ad-hoc LRRP units, and elements of the 116th ACR) to determine that significant enemy forces aren't blocking the route west.

Granted, precedent does exist for massive intel failures in the Twilight War (i.e. the "misplaced" Pact Corps that destroys 5th ID), but that's a slightly different situation. The 5th was plunging deep behind enemy lines and at least a couple of the units that smashed it were thought to be in the Ukraine or thereabouts. In the case of XI Corps, were talking about much shorter distances and an area essentially behind friendly lines. The XI Corps commander would have to be paralyzed by fear in order not to do anything to at least determine ground truth in the AO before making such a far reaching decision (i.e. to stay put in NW Poland indefinitely).

Raellus

01-21-2011, 12:57 PM

It can, if the nearby Pact units to the East are still mechanized and mobile. There doesn't have to be anyone blocking them in the West.

If they hoof it out on foot, leaving their heavy armor behind, then the Pact units nearby won't have a hard time running them down, outmanuevering them, and simply using superior (one sided now) firepower.

XI Corps can be fixed in place, unable to move, because if they do they won't be able to break contact and will be ultimately overwhelmed. Their armour and artillery would be like a double edged sword - keeping them alive but helplessly trapped at the same time.

This is a good point. I suppose that IF XI Corps was entirely out of fuel AND all the bridges between their positions and Bremerhaven were down AND they thought that significant PACT forces (at least a strong armored or mech Corps) were driving for the Baltic in order to cut them off, then staying put makes a ton of sense.

Raellus

01-21-2011, 06:36 PM

Perhaps we should break it down. There are a lot of issues/factors at play here, and things are starting to get muddled.

Going Home states that "The XI Corps was cut off from higher headquarters after the Pact counteroffensive of July, and has remained in its positions out of necessity rather than by choice. It has been written off by USAEUR. The XI US Corps HQ staff is currently wintering in Kolobrzeg, Poland, along with the remnants of the 50th US AD. At of the beginning of the adventure, word of the evacuation has just arrived. Most of the Corps' personnel will decide to remain in place rather than risk the journey to Bremerhaven." (Going Home, p. 14)

1.) "The XI Corps was cut off from higher headquarters after the Pact counteroffensive of July..."

This is the smoking gun, as far as I'm concerned, suggesting a fairly serious continuity error on the part of the writers. No such forces are identified or mentioned in any of the canonical sources as being in the region in either July, autumn or winter of 2000. If a RetCon is required, this is what needs to be addressed. A powerful Soviet/Pact Corps or Army needs to be created and placed in NW Poland, either between XI Corps and the German border, or in the immediate vicinity.

2.) "...and [XI Corps] has remained in its positions out of necessity rather than by choice."

Once again, this suggests that the above-mentioned hypothetical enemy forces are still in the area between XI Corps and the German border and pose a clear and present danger to a large-scale evacuation/general withdrawal.

3.) "[XI Corps] has been written off by USAEUR."

If it's unable to move because of points 1 & 2, then this makes perfect sense and needs no further explanation. If no such enemy units exist, then perhaps USAEUR decided to sacrifice XI Corps to protect the evac site from a possible Dunkirk scenario.

Rainbow has theorized that XI Corps will be evacuated later, by way of the UK, after assisting in stabilizing that island nation. This is an interesting theory, but one belied by the "written off" bit. I still think that this alternative theory provides an intriguing segue for American PC groups wishing to play a campaign in the UK.

I've posited an alternative, political explanation, where the XI Corps command is suspected of throwing in its lot with CivGov, and is therefore deliberately left behind to strengthen MilGov's hand in CONUS upon the return of the OMEGA sealifts. Perhaps SACEUR feeds XI Corps bogus intel suggesting a possible PACT attack to keep them in place.

4.) "At of the beginning of the adventure, word of the evacuation has just arrived. Most of the Corps' personnel will decide to remain in place rather than risk the journey to Bremerhaven."

"[R]isk the journey..." supports the RetCon placing strong Pact units between XI Corps and the German border in the Autumn of 2000.

Also, its possible that the command element and soldiers of XI Corps are personally invested in the area and have made a conscious decision to "remain in place".

Adm.Lee

01-22-2011, 03:25 PM

This is a good point. I suppose that IF XI Corps was entirely out of fuel AND all the bridges between their positions and Bremerhaven were down AND they thought that significant PACT forces (at least a strong armored or mech Corps) were driving for the Baltic in order to cut them off, then staying put makes a ton of sense.

XI Corps doesn't need to be completely out of fuel, but "low" can be low enough. If they have to abandon their heavy vehicles to walk out, even Red cavalry or barely mechanized forces can mop them up easy.

There may not be strong Pact forces in position to their west, but the possibility exists (not least in the minds of XI Corps HQ) that the Soviets could move one there. Once 5th Division ceases transmitting, does the Corps HQ really know where 4th Guards Tank Army is? IMO, they could believe that there are more Pact forces, gas/diesel-fueled, lurking over the horizon. For a general & staff trained to fight for years with the benefits of radio communication, satellite and aerial reconnaissance, and other goodies; now that they've lost them, the "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" can add up pretty quickly. Do they really know where Red Bear Chelkov and his Army is? The CIA claims to be in contact with forces near him, but do you trust them? Those reports are pretty out of date by the time they get to XI Corps HQ.

Also, it's been mentioned that the Corps and its forces have some reconnaissance assets, but those can't go very deep and still provide rapid information anymore. If there are cavalry patrols (Pact Poles and Soviets) to the east, they can report that. How would you interpret it? Whatever is out there to the east, it drove off III German Corps. That's a significant point of data.

Someone above said "paralyzed with fear"-- I would expand that to "with fear and uncertainty." And maybe command exhaustion. "There are no tired regiments, only tired colonels."-- Napoleon(?)

As for the Danes, I could support either the idea that they followed the Germans out, or that they found enough shipping on their own to float out. Neither event is likely to raise the morale of XI Corps HQ.

Finally, I think the idea of the British making an offer to pull them out in 2001 via the UK would make an excellent "Return to Europe" adventure for a group of PCs.

Legbreaker

01-22-2011, 11:23 PM

I...the units that smashed it were thought to be in the Ukraine or thereabouts.
The 22nd Cavalry Army had in fact been confirmed to be in Byelorussia at the beginning of the offensive.
The 4th GTA were also confirmed to be in the Ukraine.

As of November 2000, there is little to indicated that either of these formations (particularly the 4th GTA) were short on fuel. It can be assumed though that the destruction of the US 5th ID took a lot out of them, requiring weeks, or even months to rebuild.

Throughout all the available resources, we see that there was widespread activity in the summer of 2000 all along the Poland / German front. It can be presumed that few units were not in contact to varying degrees with the enemy. It can also be presumed (or should have by the various commanders) that units pushed back from the front and relieved would have been rallied and held in reserve. Without modern recon abilities (air, satellite, etc) a commander could not know the exact state of these units and had to assume (until evidence was provided otherwise) they could be a problem for any operations.

We, as players, GMs, writers, etc know that the real state of affairs was one of utter confusion. Almost no unit retained much structural integrity, let alone offensive capability. The people on the ground however had lived, fought, and seen men die for up to five years. Even after units, cities, factory complexes and civilisation in general had been nuked almost back to the stone age, the military had remained. A relatively small (compared to a few years before) offensive wasn't likely to do what the nukes couldn't...

So, right up until physical confirmation had been received that the enemy had given up and gone home, commanders HAD to assume the war was still being fought and react accordingly, or risk their entire unit, nay, the entire war being lost.

This fact has to be at the core of all decisions a commander makes - in our current topic of conversation, the decision to stay put in a defensible location and not withdraw as per Omega.

Now, NATO in general may have felt the US leaving to be a betrayal, however they left all their heavy equipment behind, allowing the Germans to rebuild their military. The reduction of tens of thousands of hungry mouths from Germany would also have been a welcome relief for those who stayed.

It wasn't until the following year, once the situation had apparently stabilised and information was available to indicate the Pact were no longer a credible threat that the British withdrew. With the situation at home, it was also quite clear to the remains of the British government that leaving the troops in Europe was probably going to cause more problems than it solved. Bringing them home and using them there was definitely going to solve more problems than it created.

Abbott Shaull

01-22-2011, 11:33 PM

The same said UK Forces were already in and around the Hanover region of Germany. Quite a bit far from their starting points of the 2000 offensive began and not in direction that would place them in contact with enemy Pact Forces either.

Legbreaker

01-23-2011, 12:55 AM

A VERY different situation. The British, as far as I can work out, were Nato's reserve prior to the 2000 actions. Although there are indications they fought in the summer of 2000, they were never in danger of being cut off.
The British are also in a stronger bargaining position than the Americans too - they don't require anywhere near the same amount of fuel to get home (and as previously indicated, they can probably supply it themselves from the North Sea wells). Therefore, it's extremely likely they'd be able to take all their heavy equipment with them (not that they'd really need tanks and artillery back home, unlike the Americans with Mexican and Soviet forces on their soil).

sglancy12

01-23-2011, 03:11 AM

This is probably a bit out of the box, but from time to time I've thought about the possibility of XI Corps "catching a lift" with the BAOR when it returns to the UK.

I don't think that's out of the box at all.

Even if XI Corps couldn't make OPOMEGA's departure date, where do you think a couple of thousand English speakers are going to want to settle down permanently? Poland? or the U.K.? If I were HMG I sure as heck would be mulling over the possibility of recruiting all those Americans and Canadians.

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

Trooper

01-23-2011, 04:51 AM

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

Living in Poland was not easy in the 80s. Eastern Europeans also had a very low standard of living during the Cold War.

I have read several books on the Estonian Forest Brothers. Only a small part of the Estonians began to resist the brutal oppression of the regime. Even food donations freedom fighters demanding a great deal of courage. This, therefore, despite the fact that Estonians have had universal military service (men knew how to use weapons) and weapons were readily available as soon as the fighting ended on Estonian soil. In real world partisan action is for those who are very brave or who have nothing to lose.

I can well imagine the Polish village. Local young men have died in the war at China in 1996 and 1997. Soviet troops committed quite serious raping & looting while they retreated through the village.

The villagers feared that scorpions will follow the snakes. To everyone's surprise, the Americans behaved like gentlemen. Freedom of speech was introduced. Communist regime absurd regulations were withdrawn. All unemployed men received well paying jobs from road building engineer unit. State owned land was distributed to local farmers. And there was something to buy from local shops.

When NATO retrieved many villagers were shot by polish state police. Nobody owned nothing anymore and kids were hungry - again. And now the russian started to use nuclear weapons! In october 1999 villagers killed their local communist officials and last ZOMO troops.

helbent4

01-23-2011, 05:13 AM

If I were HMG I sure as heck would be mulling over the possibility of recruiting all those Americans and Canadians.

Besides the language barrier, I've always wondered why US forces are always treated so hospitably by Poles in TW2000. Sure, the Sovs are brutal douche-nozzles, but the Americans sure did toss a lot of nukes around the Polish country-side. Even if there is such a thing as pro-NATO Polish Free Congress, I can't imagine their attitude towards Americans is going to be anything other than "Thanks for the Rads and for the mauling the Red Army... now f@*& off."

Scott,

As tempting as that might be to HM's government to poach such personnel, Canada is still an ally (and Commonwealth member), still at war and who still needs all the personnel it can get. There might be a political cost, perhaps a diplomatic break some time in the future. Granted, Canadian and British personnel have been welcome in each others' ranks in wartime due to Canada's close relationship to the "mother country". Perhaps there would be some kind of quid pro quo with British personnel stuck in Canada being taken into service in the CF (as opposed to merely being part of the Anglo-German brigade).

Your point about Poland is well-taken. This element tends to be glossed over because American PCs (and other NATO countries, particularly German) would otherwise be put into a rather difficult position. I would imagine that even in games where NATO was fighting against a communist Polish government (v1 and v2/v2.2, depending) even the considerable numbers of Poles sympathetic to Solidarność and the Free Polish government will have a complicated relationship with their "liberators".

In Raellus' T2K game (running for a few years now at least) I play a Pole who in the past was a little ambivalent about his companions. Near the start of the game, my character had a philosophical discussion with a fellow Pole about the group's commanding officer, a German, as they passed through the ruins of Nowy Huta floating down the Wisla:

[Dawid] slouched over the rail, thinking about what [Griet] said. "Well, let us say I trust Kapitan Bayer as a leader, even though as a Pole I have little love for the rest of his people. After all, we're perhaps only 50 kilometres downriver from Oświęcim... what the Hitlerites called "Auschwitz"."

"I am proud to be a Pole and I love Poland! It hurts me what's been done to our country. The North Atlantic Pact [aka NATO] soldiers say they came to liberate us, but," he gestured at the destroyed city around them, "please, let us not ask the good people of Nowy Huta if they feel "liberated" in their graves. Those that have graves, that is."

While playing this game I also came to the realisation that the people of Poland, communist and non-communist, were getting a raw deal with the "RESET" situation. There were suggestions in "Free City" about how different factions could benefit from the plans and how the players could turn a profit. Nothing about how the Poles could benefit from what is one of the few remaining Polish national treasures (so to speak) that was likely gained at the expense of the lives of many or most of the remaining Polish scientific community. At least in "Black Madonna" there is the option of benefiting the Polish people via supporting the Wojsko Ludowa ("People's Army").

Tony

Rainbow Six

01-23-2011, 06:16 AM

It wasn't until the following year, once the situation had apparently stabilised and information was available to indicate the Pact were no longer a credible threat that the British withdrew.

Per the Survivor's Guide to the UK, the first two Divisions to come home (2nd and 5th) left Bremerhaven for England some time in December 2000.

Therefore, it's extremely likely they'd be able to take all their heavy equipment with them (not that they'd really need tanks and artillery back home, unlike the Americans with Mexican and Soviet forces on their soil).

LOL...better to have and not need than need and not have...:)

Scott,

As tempting as that might be to HM's government to poach such personnel, Canada is still an ally (and Commonwealth member), still at war and who still needs all the personnel it can get. There might be a political cost, perhaps a diplomatic break some time in the future. Granted, Canadian and British personnel have been welcome in each others' ranks in wartime due to Canada's close relationship to the "mother country". Perhaps there would be some kind of quid pro quo with British personnel stuck in Canada being taken into service in the CF (as opposed to merely being part of the Anglo-German brigade).

Tony, original theory was that after an agreed time assisting to stabilise the situation in the UK, the final part of the deal would be HMG providing transport to the US and Canada for any member of XI Corps who wished to go home. That said, I don't doubt HMG will offer all sorts of incentives to any individuals who choose voluntarily to stay in Britain, but ultimately anyone who wants to go home would be able to do so.

You raise a valid point about the Anglo German Brigade - perhaps once the Canadian contingent of XI Corps is home, the Canadians might be able to look at ways of getting those troops back to the UK, possibly using the same ships that brought XI Corps to North America.

Dave

helbent4

01-23-2011, 07:31 AM

and[/I] Canada for any member of XI Corps who wished to go home. That said, I don't doubt HMG will offer all sorts of incentives to any individuals who choose voluntarily to stay in Britain, but ultimately anyone who wants to go home would be able to do so.

You raise a valid point about the Anglo German Brigade - perhaps once the Canadian contingent of XI Corps is home, the Canadians might be able to look at ways of getting those troops back to the UK, possibly using the same ships that brought XI Corps to North America.

Dave,

Fair enough, a certain amount of soldiers are going to want to stay either in Canada or the UK, especially of they've started families or otherwise decide it's better where they are. Being trained experienced soldiers, it would be advantageous and easy to fit them into either service (CF or the British Army) as has been a long-standing tradition. I just wanted to emphasise that such efforts would have to stop short of offering too many incentives or be seen as playing hardball to avoid any appearance of impropriety between friends and allies.

Tony

Rainbow Six

01-23-2011, 11:25 AM

I just wanted to emphasise that such efforts would have to stop short of offering too many incentives or be seen as playing hardball to avoid any appearance of impropriety between friends and allies.

Tony,

Good point. I think we may be in general agreement here. When it comes to incentives, I think any efforts would be done subtly, and where possible deniably; I don't forsee HMG setting up "recruiting booths" to try and encourage US or Canadian troops to stay en masse. As you say, when it comes to staying behind the obvious candidates would be individual troops who have "bonded" with the locals (got themselves a British wife or girlfriend, started a family, etc).

Dave

Abbott Shaull

01-23-2011, 11:47 AM

Well one of the things is look at the start points at the beginning, both UK Corps were holding line well south of the jump off point for the 3rd German Army.

Legbreaker

01-23-2011, 05:08 PM

Per the Survivor's Guide to the UK, the first two Divisions to come home (2nd and 5th) left Bremerhaven for England some time in December 2000.

Shhhh! I was hoping nobody would actually check! (I neglected to) ;)
Even though those units left after the bulk of US forces, it was only a few thousand men and occured once the US equipment had been handed over to German units. It's also very likely that it was becoming more and more apparent no further Pact offensive would be forthcoming, at least in the next year and certainly not over winter.

helbent4

01-23-2011, 05:14 PM

Group,

Regarding the Canadian contingent of XI Corps, it looks like even if the US units did stay, most of 4CMB made it home by November 2000. So it's mostly moot, if you're using canon sources. (Not everyone does, and there's a lot wrong of goofy with canon, of course!)

July 2000:

1/22e Karlino, Poland
2/22e Karlino, Poland
1/BCR Karlino, Poland
1/CAR Karlino, Poland

According to Challenge #30 (Canada: 2000 by Legion G. McRae)

November 2000:

1/22e New Glasgow, NS
2/22e St. John's, NFLD
1/BCR Gaspé, Que
1/CAR Gaspé, Que

In the NATO vehicle guide, the above units were in "winter cantonments" as of "July 2000". By 2001, many (if not all) CF units were back in Canada, and all of 4MB was assigned to Maritime command. So it's possible that even of the American units stayed put, the 4th Canadian Mech Brigade successfully made a run for Bremerhaven and were transported back home as a part of OP OMEGA.

I'm aware that not everyone makes full use of canon (including me) in all circumstances, and the above information is all v1 (and in Challenge, to boot). I thought I would post the following to clarify the "official" story on these units.

Tony

Legbreaker

01-23-2011, 05:36 PM

helbent4

01-23-2011, 06:18 PM

Challenge, while excellent, isn't always absolutely 100% correct and realistic (although it should be!) given that it's written by fans on the whole. Take some of the weapon stats presented for example...
Are there any indications the Canadians still had heavy equipment after returning home? Could they have evacuated by small boat in time to catch TF35, leaving their heavy gear with XI Corp?
This is the only practical and logical way they could have made it out.

Leg,

Yeah, I'm about 80% with the Challenge articles on Canada and other areas. The author of those articles, Legion McRae, shows up every once in a while at the local miniatures wargaming club.

1/British Columbia Regiment (Duke of Connaught's Own, aka "the Dukes") is listed as having 3 AFVs, although these could of course be anything. Their strength in Poland isn't stated so it's impossible to correlate exactly. It does, however, make sense that a smaller unit of non-Americans would break from XI Corps and make the trip via small craft than go by land.

Tony

Legbreaker

01-23-2011, 07:37 PM

By small craft it's doable given the available port facilities. Any vehicles they may have once back in Canada could be local acquisitions, possibly captured from Quebec units they encounted shortly after landing. They could even be lightly armoured scout cars of some type, "liberated" from a private collection.

Rainbow Six

01-24-2011, 06:50 AM

Shhhh! I was hoping nobody would actually check! (I neglected to) ;)
Even though those units left after the bulk of US forces, it was only a few thousand men and occured once the US equipment had been handed over to German units. It's also very likely that it was becoming more and more apparent no further Pact offensive would be forthcoming, at least in the next year and certainly not over winter.

LOL...sorry mate...:)

To be fair, I can see why you reached that conclusion - whilst it doesn't make any definitive statements, istr Going Home does suggest that any UK evacuation isn't likely to take place until sometime in 2001. Perhaps Omega serves as a catalyst for HMG to decide to stage its own evacuation. As to why only a portion of the BAOR is brought home, perhaps there was a political dimension to it, with an agreement reached between the British and German Governments that some troops will stay, or perhaps it's as simple as there was only enough shipping / fuel available to bring home two Divisions in one lift.

At the risk of debunking my own theory, it does seem like the earlier the remainder of the BAOR pulls out the much less likely it is that XI Corps would be able to make it to Bremerhaven to join them.