T2K Today: Korea

[Raellus]

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South? I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though? Would China intervene on its behalf?

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

[Webstral]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

[cavtroop]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Funny you bring this up, I was just thinking about this the other day.

As Webstral said, casualties would be horrific - on a scale not seen since, well, the last Korean war. I have no idea where the US would get the manpower to fight it - anyone not locked up in Iraq/AFG are either winding down from a recent deployment, or gearing up for the next. I guess those guys would go, and the poor guys currently in Iraq/AFG would be in for a long haul.

No question the world markets would tank - EU is on the edge now anyways. And I cant even begin to imagine what Chinas response would be. They'd be getting hammered by the world economy collapsing (who would buy their products?).

[Jason Weiser]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

[Frank Frey]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

Out Here,
Frank Frey

[HorseSoldier]

I also agree -- PRC has a vested interest in keeping Korea from going into a serious melt down, which would be bad for business. I'd think they'd pull the plug.

Without massive Chinese logistical support, I don't think the NK military could make much of a go of an attack on the South. If the defenders could hold the line against the first surge from the North, that'd pretty much be the end of it, from a strategic perspective. Might not be much comfort to guys on the line fighting while North Korea is effectively dead on its feet, but risk of another Pusan perimeter and all would be gone.

Big question is what would happen if/when ROK/US/etc or Chinese troops tried entering North Korea during a conflict -- would the populace start tearing down the Stalinist monuments and decorations, or would true believers head to the hills to fight on? (Or some of both.) What the NK regime might do with their WMD programs is another scary one.

[Raellus]

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.


It seems like the PRC is always dragging its feet when it comes to economic sanctions against NK. I'm not sure the PRC wants a unified, democratic, capitalist Korea right next door. I'm not sure it would want a totalitarian, communist Korea next door either. It'd be great if the PRC took care of the NK problem for us but it would only create other, possibly larger problems, for all of the players in the region (including the U.S.).

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

[Jason Weiser]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

[Raellus]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

[Dogger]

I Remember all the doom predictions about Saddam's "million man army" in Gulf War I. How they were a bunch of "hardened combat veterans" after years of war against Iran etc etc. We saw how that went.

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

I'm not sure of the state of the SK Army, but I'm sure it's 1000% better than it was in 1950. Add to all this the fact that I think the Allies would in short order control the skies over NK and that the NK forces will probably be in the field en masse and thus be subject to all the punishment such forces suffer when caught out in the open.

Also, there's very little possibility of a massive 'sneak attack' this time with SAT sitting overhead all day everyday. And should the Dear Leader get stupid enough to lob missiles at Japan...I'm not so sure they would sit this one out.

I'm also not to worked up about and WMD from NK being used outside of the Korean Peninsular, we have Ticonderoga class cruisers that now have the capability of -at least- shooting at outbound ICBMs and there's the ABM sites in Alaska that have again scored -at least some- hits on test targets that might head for the US West Coast...and any NK aircraft trying to make some kind of 'bomb run' on Japan or Okinawa would be lit up by Allied aircraft/navy ships long before they got anywhere IMO.

Yes, from a manpower POV the US would be challenged in the opening phase of combat, however air assets could easily be shifted from the ME and possibly offset NK numbers on the ground until greater forces arrived.

This is of course just my opinion on all this.

[pmulcahy11b]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

[Eddie]

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

[Matt W]

What do the Chinese know that we don't?


The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)
http://alturl.com/ve28

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

[mikeo80]

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

IMHO, the Chinese govt is looking for an excuse to take the US down a peg. Just imagine the following scenario.

The NK's invade SK. They probably could take Seoul (Less than 40 klicks from frontier.)

USA Air Force out of Japan and US Navy swarm NK Air Force, then turn the attention of the B-52's on the NK Army

As the NK casualty rate climbs China joins in. Not w/ military, with economics. Demand FULL PAYMENT of all US debt China owns. Payment due in GOLD, or diamonds or other form of permanent value. US Bankrupts in less than 20 days....

[Cdnwolf]

Interesting that in my timeline for Twilight 2013, I have North Korea launching nukes at the south and Guam, Japan. Also people forget that one corner of North Korea touches Russia too... so they have an interest in that part of the world too.

[Raellus]

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

Wow. I'd never heard of Rajin before. That would explain a lot. No wonder the Chinese are willing to sleep with the enemy.

As for demanding immediate and full payment of U.S. debts to China, it's a horrifying thought (and a great reason to pay down the defecit), but unlikely to occur since it would bankrupt China's biggest customer. There must be another, more subtle way to hurt our economy without completely destroying it.

[Jason Weiser]

Gotta agree with Rae,
The Chinese and the US are locked into an economic version of MAD. Neither country can survive without the other now, at least not economically. This port notwithstanding, the Russians can't get into a war with the Chinese over this. The Russian army may be great for kicking the snot out of Georgia, but taking on the PLA? I don't think so. The Russian plan for war with China? Go nuclear fast. The problem of Raijin gets solved if there's a Korean presence period. Doesn't matter whether that's Nork or ROK. Something tells me the PRC's making the same calculus now. The PRC doesn't want to stay in NK if it comes to that. Probably go in, smash the NKPA, arrest or kill the Kims and cut a deal with the ROKs, then make sure the US goes home and/or doesn't base troops north of the old 38th Parallel. If all that happens, I can't see the PRC thinking this would be a bad thing.

[Dog 6]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

that was most definitely true when I was in ROK in 1993. if the nk's are dumb enough to invade they are done for, with or with out our help.

[Dogger]

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.


Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

[Eddie]

Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

Yeah, but the 2nd ID Commander, MG Tucker, is still pretty concerned about them. I was privileged to sit through a two hour briefing he gave about two weeks ago.

[HorseSoldier]

Weaponized Smallpox?

Slate wiper if they can pop it in enough places to prevent firewalling it.

I'd guess that if small pox broke out among Chinese or Russian troops at the front, their parent governments would nuke them from along with reducing North Korea to glowing cinders.

Have it introduced in the midst of a Twilight nuclear exchange and the human race will simply die off until population density is too low to let it spread effectively. Then we'll just have endemic occasional outbreaks that take 10% here or 20% there in bad years.

I always wanted to run a T2K game where players were somewhere near-ish Central Asia (Iran, or maybe a Russian game set in the Rodina) where characters had to deal with some roving neo-nomads who got exposed to something nasty while looting a Soviet bioweapons lab and were now carrying Small Pox or genetically modified Plague or something equally foul.

[Abbott Shaull]

The location of Seoul has been the one downside for the South.

Yeah, the only reason the US 8th Army HQ, 2nd Infantry Division HQ, and one of the 2nd combat brigade with other US assets is support. I am sure the South Korea realizes that if the war goes hot again, that it will take a long time for the US to move reinforcements into the region if we could ever. The government in the South Korea on one hand realize that with the 8th US Army, 2nd Infantry Division HQ and the one combat brigade with other assets under the UN means if something starts they can hopefully get help from somewhere.

So I understand the 2nd Infantry Division Commander being concerned as he should be. He knows if the North starts shelling south, his units would be on the target list no matter how fast the South would be able to respond and silence them.

As for the port, I don't see Russia or China wanting to see the South Korea government in control of a new unified Korea. At this time they realize regardless who control the port, it will keep them honest with each other.

China and Russia don't trust each other, but they realize they can't fight each other. Much like China and the US economies, both side don't care for it, but realize there not much either can do without ramifications that either economy would collapse. It is use US cash that allow China to buy Russia Hardware.... Russia selling to China, even though they know the Chinese would use it against them if they had to, due to need cash....kinda of vicious cycle...

[Raellus]

As for the port, I don't see Russia or China wanting to see the South Korea government in control of a new unified Korea. At this time they realize regardless who control the port, it will keep them honest with each other.

Agreed. South Korea is already an economic powerhouse. I think China would view a unified Korea as an even more dangerous economic competitor. Yeah, it would take a decade or two for the South to pull the North up to something approaching solvency, but once it does, look out! I mean, West Germany/Germany did something very similar in just over a decade or so.

And don't make the mistake of underestimating the NK military. Yeah, it's probably more bark than it is bite but we made the mistake of underestimating it once and we almost got our asses kicked as a result. Even if the NKs lost the conventional war fairly quickly, if/when it went asymetric, we could end up pacifying/stabilizing the North for a very long time. Throw in NBC weapons at some point and it could get very, very ugly before it was all over.

[headquarters]

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

Firstly -a preface - this is in part a political discussion so please consider that I offer my views in order to hear what others think about them -I dont write with intent to provoke .

To the case :

I am with Eddie on this one - they might have all sorts of WMDs for these arty pieces .Also they have Seoul in range .

A "Nork" ( love the name ) invasion of the South seemes really far fetched with todays situation.War can take other forms though , and the Norks are unpredictable .

Victory isnt assured imho- it depends on what the objectives are .

Was Gulf 1 a full victory ? Of course it was - but objectives had to be shifted from "kick out Saddam" to "liberate Kuwait and destroy his army - only" to attain this . The kicking out couldnt be done until Gulf 2.

I agree that the US and ROk forces are more than capable of winning a war outright- so the question will turn to -at what cost ?

I believe, for one ,at the price of Seoul, and 500 000 civillian South Koreans for starters .

Then as a second phase ,the massive airborne retaliation will probably kill
100 000 NK service personel ( pulling numbers out of a hat here guys) and God knows what the collateral damage list will read like.

I cant really back it up with hard facts right now, but I have a chilling sensation down my spine that the NORKS arent going to be bowled over the same way the Iraqis were.
For one ,their nationalism goes further back and is more homogenous and hardcore than the composite Iraqi nation .They seem much more hard core-if poor and underequipped. Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army .

A third phase would probably have to mean incursion onto NK soil . ( A lucky cruise missile hit might solve many problems to alleviate the need for this ,but I have read books from US service personel that have been to PyongYang before - the leadership has had bunkers that can stand up to some nuclear weapons for over 60 years .)
Such an operation/invasion opens up a whole can of new problems .

The western way of waging war has great strengths being the continuation of politics by other means ,as we are democracies and thus our causes are mostly just ,give or take a few -but its major weakness is this also . We cannot ( yes -lumping all of us together ) take the same casualties as the axis of evil guys .Our populace has no stomach for it .Support for the war will dwindle if death tolls rise and the match goes into overtime or if a rematch starts looming on the horizon .Further more - civillian casualties are also a similar concern ,also in the enemies population .

If my haphazard calculations have any merit than I see a death toll in total of around 1000 000 people ,mostly civillians that the Norks attack in Seoul and their own civvies that they will use as shields etc to try to null out US air superiority .A lot of dead NK service personell as well . I will not try to guesstimate at the number of ROK and US personell that will pay the ultimate price - I suspect the number to be staggering compared to the relatively low casualty number from the two Gulf wars -not counting the ongoing operations since 2003.

Thus - considering the risks and the potential costs, I dont think PyongYang could be "defeated" today - if you take their objective as a POV - to stay in power at any cost .Sort of like the Japanese strategy for the battle of Iwo Jima. Make it as costly as possible , and hope this will lead to the possibility for brokering a deal.Sure ,they would loose their huge army ,countless civillians would die and devestation would by all around .But if they could get the ROK and the US to back off, they could stay in control through harsh internal security measures and by more time for the Juche.

As I said in the preface -just one guys opinion.

[Fusilier]

Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army.

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

One only has to look at previous spec ops missions the Norks pulled in the south. They fought very hard, very well, and chose death rather than surrender in most cases. Granted it doesn't give any real indication to the rest of their forces, but I still wouldn't put them in the same category as the Iraqis - too many differences.

For one, they are poor yes, but they aren't motivated or fueled by money. Their ideology (juche and what not) is planted deep in all of them from birth. I recommend downloading one of the many investigative documentaries filmed in North Korea on that subject. It's surreal. The whole country is like one big insane asylum. Saying they are brainwashed is just barely scrapping the surface of what goes on there.

[Targan]

I think MacArthur was right. Should have nuked the bastards. I can't believe that such a kooky family has managed to maintain a cult of personality for so long, keeping the majority of the North Korean population in abject poverty along the way. Its a pity the US is stretched so thin militarilly. I'd like to see the US and its allies (including Australia) roll on into North Korea and implement regime change with extreme prejudice.

[Caradhras]

For info guys...

The word 'Norks' is UK slang for, well, "What a great pair of norks!". You get the picture :)

[Eddie]

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Another concern of MG Tucker's. According to him (and he gets better intel updates than I do), it's apparently the largest group of special operations forces in the world.

[Abbott Shaull]

North Korea Special Operation troops have been conducting probes for many years. Strangely Korea is one of the few places where each side conduct several probes with their unit on scale that would be on par with the Cold War with US and Soviet would do, sometimes leaving signs they were there just to prove they were, while most of the time, the other side doesn't have a clue they are their.

One of several reason why North Korea being able to make Nuke is so annoying, bother me so much at times. More so than the missiles they have tested, these are window dressing that suppose to draw attention away. If they can make a "suitcase" and slip in into the South during one of these probes... Arm a sleeper cell their some target they wouldn't have to take out in the initial hours...Just let the sleeper cell take them out with the nuke...

[pmulcahy11b]

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Yes, they have a lot of troops that they designate "special operations" troops. For the most part, though -- and I'm not letting any classified cat out of the bag here -- their "special operations troops" are simply well-trained infantry with additional training in infiltration and rear-area ops, similar to US light infantry forces. Most of their "special ops" troops are simply light fighters, in essence.

[Raellus]

Some possible scenarios leading up to another shooting war between the Koreas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100526/wl_time/08599199192800

[headquarters]

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South? I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though? Would China intervene on its behalf?

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

I have sort of an answer - to involve another major power could happen by accident .

Pardon my forgetfulness - but I did see some T2K scenarios based on another Koraen war on the internet - " something Dragon something " - I just cant remember where and who has written it.
Not very helpful..

As for in game scenarios - and of course - this is only meant as a suggestion to a " timeline " and NOT intended as a political comment of any sort nor is it in any way intended to anger any particular group -save possibly the criminals in Pyongyang ;)

What about a tit for tat scenario where the border skirmishes that the Norks love go wrong , and serious shooting starts .( there are so many border incidents on land,in the air and at sea that it resembles assymetrical warfare already any tangible escalation might trigger this incident in RL).

The instability of the Nork leadership and circumstance leads to "the Sea of Fire Scenario" ,where the Norks shoot Seoul and environs to smitherens and kill app 1000 000 ROK citizens ,crippeling the countrys economy , and in an already hampered global economy,trigger a downward spiral that rapidly leads to major instability in the industrialized world.(Think Greece only on a larger scale ).

The ongoing barrage in Seoul ( stopping it with conventional weapons might take weeks or months ) and major raids -possibly coupled by some surprise defeats for the ROK/US forces in the conventional war adds to the doom and gloom and whips up a frenzy in public opinion .

This in turn leads to a perception of the legality of answering with tactical nuclear weapons -which in turn leads to a well planned and executed infiltration attack on the US by Nork agents using some sort of WMDs and devestating attacks on critical infrastructure and symbolic targets - if indded it wasnt already in the works once the war went loud at the .38th parallell.

To involve any of the other major powers against the US would take some conjuring imho - but the terrorist route that 2013 has taken might be one approach - possibly with a powerful super villain faction not aligned with the official goverment in Beijing or Moscow or indeed Riyadh as the cloacked force behind the attacks,backing a faction that takes advantage of the chaos and open up a second front against the West..If this is discovered by any allied intelligence agency I dare say the mess would be of such proportions that only blowing the kitchen up will suffice as a cleaning operation .

A lot of ifs and maybes - I know .

[pmulcahy11b]

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

[Rainbow Six]

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

[Jason Weiser]

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/North-Korea-Reneges-On-Naval-Agreement-with-South-95004154.html

http://www.informationdissemination.net/

The one about the Nork midget subs is particularly enlightening.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-dispatches-envoy-to-restrain-war-mad-north-korea-2010-5

And this short piece, says a lot when the Chinese are that nervous.

The links keep coming: This paragraph is especially enlightening:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7138002.ece

A US aircraft has been sent from the Japanese island of Okinawa to spy on the North, and the Japanese government has been informed of an unusually high level of troop movements on the northern side of the inter-Korean border, The Times learnt today. Meanwhile, Pyongyang announced that it will nullify a communications arrangement set up to prevent conflict between the two countries’ navies.

[pmulcahy11b]

I'm watching the crawler under Obama's press conference on MSNBC right now -- the Chinese say they're going to join the US and South Korea in condemning North Korean actions as of late. Interesting.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

It does have sort of an ironic touch in a T2K world.

[Jason Weiser]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/05/27/2010052701263.html

Looks like we're really paying attention....Watchcon 2. And that a/c from Okinawa? Probably Rivet Joint or whatever they're calling her now.

[pmulcahy11b]

Watchcon 2...not a good indication at all...:(

[simonmark6]

I know it's random but I love the fact that the site Jason linked to has an advert for relocating to North Korea. Chances are at the moment that the only Americans relocating to North Korea will be riding tanks.

[Webstral]

There are so many variables. I've just read a piece by a USAF pilot who thinks we'll finish it all in two hours. I hope he's right, but the Greeks taught us the dangers of hubris.

All of the planning that has gone into this thing makes me think that for every measure there is a countermeasure and a counter-countermeasure ad nauseum. How much do the NKs know about our capabilities? What kinds of countermeasures have they taken at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels? To what degree is our firepower going to be so overwhelming that even the NKs can stand against it, and to what degree will our firepower be neutralized by imaginative and/or effective countermeasures? I honestly don't know the answers. In the mid-90's, I might have said I had a loose grasp on what was going on in Korea. Now, I just don't have any current information.

What I do know is that I am very, very wary of accepting the idea that we would destroy the DPRK's ability to wage war in the space of a few hours. That just seems too good to be true. It also implies that the NKs haven't thought this thing through. Comparisons between Iraq and North Korea have at least as many entries in the unlike column as the alike column.

Hopefully, it's all just posturing. Hopefully, something won't go terribly wrong somewhere as everyone runs around playing their part during the posturing.

Webstral

[pmulcahy11b]

Hopefully, it's all just posturing. Hopefully, something won't go terribly wrong somewhere as everyone runs around playing their part during the posturing.

The Watchcon went to 2 when Kim Il-Sung died and Kim Jong-Il took over. We were worried and closely monitoring the situation in North Korea for about a month. We were ready to go at any moment. That managed to resolve itself; hopefully this will too.

[Matt W]

Apologies if someone has already linked to this
http://www.washingtonspeakers.com/prod_images/pdfs/KayDavid.NorthKoreaTheWarGame.07.05.pdf

It's a report on a wargame/brainstorming session held in 2005 by "The Atlantic" magazine. The results (and opinions) make interesting reading. Incidentally, the pdf also mentions a 1961 treaty that - if NK is invaded - obliges China to commit troops in support of North Korea.

[Webstral]

What I like about the paper Matt linked us to is the idea that war in Korea is not simply a matter of dropping some, or a slew, of precision munitions on NK conventional forces as they strike south across the DMZ. It's not even about firing a ton of cruise missiles and other precision munitions at targets in the PDRK to wreck the North Korean ability to wage war. Even if we achieve a smashing conventional victory in defeating Northern aggression against the South, we are confronted with the North's possible NBC actions, possible ongoing infiltration and sabotage, possible attacks on shipping by NK submarines, and the ongoing existence of the regime. If the loss of a conventional war in Korea leads to the collapse of the Kim regime, the crisis takes on a whole new dimension that is not amenable to solution by JDAM. If Iraq and Afghanistan have shown us anything, it's that we can't skimp on occupation forces. Where are a half-million (or more) riflemen supposed to come from? I'm past the point where I'm going to volunteer for a year of peacekeeping in Korea, and I'm too old to be drafted.

Not all problems can be solved with high explosives.

Webstral

[headquarters]

I know it's random but I love the fact that the site Jason linked to has an advert for relocating to North Korea. Chances are at the moment that the only Americans relocating to North Korea will be riding tanks.
:D
or they are incredibly optimistic - I mean - come on...relocate to sunny North Korea ???

LOL!

[headquarters]

What I like about the paper Matt linked us to is the idea that war in Korea is not simply a matter of dropping some, or a slew, of precision munitions on NK conventional forces as they strike south across the DMZ. It's not even about firing a ton of cruise missiles and other precision munitions at targets in the PDRK to wreck the North Korean ability to wage war. Even if we achieve a smashing conventional victory in defeating Northern aggression against the South, we are confronted with the North's possible NBC actions, possible ongoing infiltration and sabotage, possible attacks on shipping by NK submarines, and the ongoing existence of the regime. If the loss of a conventional war in Korea leads to the collapse of the Kim regime, the crisis takes on a whole new dimension that is not amenable to solution by JDAM. If Iraq and Afghanistan have shown us anything, it's that we can't skimp on occupation forces. Where are a half-million (or more) riflemen supposed to come from? I'm past the point where I'm going to volunteer for a year of peacekeeping in Korea, and I'm too old to be drafted.

Not all problems can be solved with high explosives.

Webstral

Firstly - these are just opinions that I want to share to see what others think of them - and since the thread is somewhat political - there is no intent to provoke etc etc .Just saying - giving my 2 cents ,I would be happy to read a reply that proves me wrong as I care not for any dictatorship,but as of late has concluded that the situation seems bleak for the good guys.

As it stands today - the US/ROK could not satisfactorily win a second Korean war .I will explain what I mean by "win" - but in essence what Web says - you might kill most of their troops,down their MIGs and get three major damage results to each T-55 they have .They will still need to be invaded and pacified at a cost geater than Iraq and other operations combined.there is little in the way of natural resources to help pay the bill .And drastic measures such as a draft AND/OR an enthusiastic coalition of allies with big contributions is needed.In todays economy this doesnt seem possible.

That USAF pilot who said it would all be over in a matter of hours cannot be expected to be taken seriously .

The NK forces has had over 50 years to dig in ,stock up and prepare for round two .Whereas the west and the UN lead coalition has tried to avoid the war sparking up again ( its not formally over ) and opted for a hope for peace ,the NK has thrived on the policy of tension -indeed their main rationale for keeping the elites in power over there has been the image they have created of the West as a dangerous and unthrustworthy enemy that needs to be guarded against at all times - lest "paradise" be lost .

A North Korea on the offensive in traditional terms is higly unlikely .There is little chance of hordes of NK troops crossing the DMZ .In the open , the allies have the upper hand.

To expose the army to the USAF and other branches airpower would be folly - the Norks know this , and in my opinion they have tailored their military to oppose the US and ROK forces in a defensive manner that is laid out in a way that the conflict will drag out and become a stalemate or war of attrition .
In a defensive battle , the relative superiority of the US/ROK/UN forces would be canceled out to some extent - I believe to the extent that it would in effect be a huge gamble to try a military solution with the NK.

A win will not be assured -even in terms of beating their military forces conventionally .( Wow- western militaries loosing a conventional all out war /or a draw - a situation unheard of for a long time .)

If they can achieve this protracted battle , the political situation in the ROK and the US will turn to their advantage and the war will simmer down and new talks will be held and the cease fire will once again take effect .

Only now , the North Koreans will have a galvanized populace behind them ,the leaders will have been proven right .

The tribulations that the sanctions and economic mismanagment has caused the civilians will not lead to popular uprising or regime change - they will only lead to continued suffering for the populace and strengthen the position of the Kims or the junta that will follow them once they are gone .

As for the Chinese intervening on "our " side - it is possible given the close economic ties between the West and China - but they face the exact same military problem at the nothern border and in its hinterland as the west does at the 38th parallell.The Norks have fortified this direction too - north of Pyongyang is a major fortified area etc .

Add into the equation that the Norks have the possibility to strike against international shipping lanes,possibly have wmds,that they have Seoul and 10 million South Koreans in range of their artillery, the fact that the US would need 12 months -probably much longer - to build up a force to overthrow the regime .

I dare say that the reason that they havent already been hit by us is the fact that it just isnt possible to win unless you get the world to accept millions of dead and major disturbances in global economy as a price.

all in my humble opinion of course .

[General Pain]

enter the north north-korean jungles with one missile - and fire it away against the Nork elite - hopefully hitting the target. Any GM will probably say the elite was at a tea/torturing party at one of their slave-camps so the fight must move there.

Obstacles include loads of Norks in various combat effectivnes in jungle warfare, ending in a glorius stealth mission in one of the palaces of the Nork Elite. Ramafacations would include anything from global economic instability , increased oil prices to all out global war.

...puts ideas to my mind it does ;)

[pmulcahy11b]

As it stands today - the US/ROK could not satisfactorily win a second Korean war .I will explain what I mean by "win" - but in essence what Web says - you might kill most of their troops,down their MIGs and get three major damage results to each T-55 they have .They will still need to be invaded and pacified at a cost geater than Iraq and other operations combined.there is little in the way of natural resources to help pay the bill .And drastic measures such as a draft AND/OR an enthusiastic coalition of allies with big contributions is needed.In todays economy this doesnt seem possible.

Well, the ROK Army could quite successfully repel an invasion by the North. Reunification is quite another matter -- the primary unifying force would have to come from the North Korean and South Korean people themselves, just as it did in Germany. You can't force democracy on anyone -- that pretty much goes against the very definition of democracy, and democracy won't take root unless the people of a country are ready for it and want it. That's something Bush and Cheney didn't bother to think about during their ill-conceived and unnecessary invasion of Iraq, and it won't work in Afghanistan either.

[headquarters]

Well, the ROK Army could quite successfully repel an invasion by the North. Reunification is quite another matter -- the primary unifying force would have to come from the North Korean and South Korean people themselves, just as it did in Germany. You can't force democracy on anyone -- that pretty much goes against the very definition of democracy, and democracy won't take root unless the people of a country are ready for it and want it. That's something Bush and Cheney didn't bother to think about during their ill-conceived and unnecessary invasion of Iraq, and it won't work in Afghanistan either.

I agree. The ROK could repel an invasion- at great cost to their nation .So my statements will only be true if the war takes another form .If the NK come screaming across the DMZ in force ,and the USAF and USN could respond quickly enough ,they would be slaughtered.
Reunification through force would be another matter .

[Jason Weiser]

The latest:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2010/05/28/28/0301000000AEN20100528005600315F.HTML

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-premier-just-kicked-north-korea-to-the-curb-2010-5

[Webstral]

For the moment, let's assume that the North Koreans have some understanding of what they are up against in terms of Allied (my term, for simplicity's sake) firepower. Let's assume that they either know they'll get their fourth points of contact kicked and therefore won't do much more than rattle sabers or that they have a game plan more nuanced than lining up their forces in neat rows on the MSRs to be pounded to hamburger and flaming ruin by the Allies. If I’m wrong, then the North Koreans are defeated in three days or less and everyone who thinks brute, albeit precision, fires will win the day can say they said so. If I’m right, we need to think about more than Tomahawks and F-16s lining up to hit the latest version of the Highway of Death.

If the North Koreans are just rattling their sabers a bit more vigorously than usual, we can go back to worrying about the economy in a little while. If there’s a different story, it may play out in a number of ways.

We don’t know a lot about what goes on inside North Korea. This lack of intelligence means that we don’t have a good grasp of power politics in the North. I’ve read that Kim Jong-Il is anxious about getting his son set up as the next leader. If there is a succession crisis brewing, a war is a wonderful way to unite the population—at least for the time being. A war of aggression may not be practical, but a defensive war—that’s gold. An escalation of incidents that leads to an Allied bombardment of the North could be just what the doctor ordered to get truculent but hard-to-replace Communists in line behind Kim’s son. Whether it’s a good idea or not is irrelevant. It’s about what the Dear Leader believes. As for provoking an Allied bombardment of the North, the People’s Democratic Republic has a wide variety of tools besides outright invasion of the ROK.

A series of escalating incidents, perhaps moving through the use of chemical weapons against the South, may provoke an Allied invasion of the North to put an end to the affair. In this arena, the Allies may find themselves hard-pressed. If Kim’s objective is to solidify his passing of the torch to his son, heroic defense of the homeland under the increasingly visible leadership of his son may fit the bill. Kim is a totalitarian dictator. He may be willing to countenance massive destruction and loss of life in his nation to secure his dynasty. I don’t know. I don’t know who knows, which is part of the problem.

Going forward, Kim may believe that massive casualties among the ROK populace and Allied troops may bring the Allies to the bargaining table when the northward offensive runs out of steam (assuming it runs out of steam). Maybe he’s right. Maybe he’s not. If he’s right, then he wins—despite whatever damage the PDRK suffers. If he’s wrong, then maybe he loses his head. Someone new takes control of the PDRK. Maybe the PDRK can’t be held together once the chocks have been knocked out. If it can, we’re stuck with an unknown in power in Pyongyang. If the PDRK collapses, the Allies are left holding the bag. There are many way for that to get quite ugly.

How much of this Kim has considered is hard for anyone to say. Ruthless dictators can be very tight-lipped about such things. How likely Kim considers any of the myriad of possible outcomes is also very difficult to say but absolutely crucial in predicting where all of this might be going.

Heck, it might not have anything to do with the Kim dynasty. Maybe the sub that fired on the ROK corvette didn’t mean to do it. Maybe Kim did mean it for some other purpose entirely. Maybe a replacement leader hopeful somewhere in North Korea ordered the action to discomfit the Dear Leader as part of the chess game at whose configuration we can only guess. Maybe Kim got bored. Maybe Kim is looking to leverage the West for more of something that he needs. So far, such a strategy doesn’t appear to be paying off, but that doesn’t mean the strategy can’t still pay off or that Kim hasn’t miscalculated badly.

I bring all of this up because an intelligent discussion of where the current crisis might go should move beyond the idea that the USAF and the USN (with its tomahawks) are going to pulverize the southward-bound NK Army on the roads and destroy critical targets and infrastructure with precision bombardment. If Kim is a complete fool, we’ve got him. If not, or if he listens to his generals, then he’s got something more nuanced than lining up his troops and facilities like ducks in a shooting gallery.

Simply put, North Korea has strengths. If the NKs have been paying attention to their Sun Tzu lessons, then they will try to maneuver the Allies into choosing between giving the North what it wants or forcing the Allies to operate in the North’s area of strength and not the other way around. Since we’re all more-or-less in agreement that a straightforward invasion of the ROK is untenable, let’s think of what else could be in the works.

Webstral

[Eddie]

JFTR, North Korea continues to dig new tunnels daily. The Highway of Death Revisited is a pretty unlikely occurrence, IMO.

Like other nations, our intel might not be so good on the inside of his country, but his intel on the outside is fairly good. I'm sure he's realized that large masses of assets will make good targets.

That said, other than a two-hour briefing/lecture from MG Tucker that I mentioned in another thread, I don't have any more real answers than Web does.

[jester]

Here are two other things that I haven't seen mentioned, or have I missed them.

the Norths Nukes. How many do they have? Will they use them? Most likely. That is a deterent and as we have seen in the last few years a chip that is used to blackmail aid and to wratchet up the brinkmanship, so they crank it up, extort aid and then return to the status quo.

China; in reguards of Immigration.

I have read reports that China has as big an immigration problem with N. Koreans fleeing their own country and sneaking into China as we here in the US have with the states on our Southern Border.

So, if there were a confligration I would imagine that alot of civilians from the North would pour into China from N. Korea. Can China handle such an influx when they are having economic troubles of their own? And would they stand for it? An unstable N. Korea where they would have to pour more aid into than they already are, with a population that is flooding their country and provinces and most likely wreaking havoc there. Would they either send in masses of troops to lock the border down? Or would they send forces into Korea to establish their own puppet leader, or aid the North?

We must also remember that in Asia the idea of "Face" is important. And has been the cause of some of the issues that the US has had with China in recent years, 2001 the colission of the Electronics Survielance plane and the Mig, the shadowing of US vessels by Chinese Submarines, the "lost" Chinese Submarines operating in Japanese waters.

Those are efforts of China to expand their sphere of influence. Since they are making efforts to expand their industrial capacity and their military capacity. After all, the US and its bases are a bit of a slap in the face to China, as we were the big dog in the area, and a loss of face.

So, how does "face" come into play with the Chinese in the event of hostilities between the two Koreas? Would they take direct action aiding the North? Move in on their own against the North? Take a truly passive stance? Take a semi passive stance against the North? Take a semi passive stance against Western Support and intervention of the South?

[Raellus]

I have read reports that China has as big an immigration problem with N. Koreans fleeing their own country and sneaking into China as we here in the US have with the states on our Southern Border.

So, if there were a confligration I would imagine that alot of civilians from the North would pour into China from N. Korea. Can China handle such an influx when they are having economic troubles of their own? And would they stand for it?

This is a good point. Waves of refugees would give China a fait accompli to invade N. Korea, perhaps just to create a "buffer" a few miles deep. Presumably, this would include the seizure of that port Matt mentioned.

[headquarters]

Again I underline that these are only my speculations...

I believe that internal politics in Pyongyang might be a factor that can escalate the situation too.In a play to manouver their faction to remain in power, war against outside powers is tried and tested.

What form it would take is hard to say - artillery exchanges and the retaliation war from the allies by sea and air could serve as a useful tool for the KIMs to galvanize support behind them and stay in power -even though the military suffer sa hammering from the allies.

The highway of death scenario has been thoroughly analyzed by NK - they will likely make only small sallies across the DMZ .Their main force will be spread out in an in depth defense north of the DMZ-hoping that this will lead to allied reluctance to see a war through .Ousting the regime by air is nigh on impossible imho.

After the dust settles and the bombardments are over the Kims are still in power and their grip still firm .

Their initial escalation will start much like the one we see now - agressive posturing ,incidents with loss of life and materiel and psy ops - this way they hope to coax the allies into "unfavourable political ( and geographical ) " terrain .Maybe sacrificing something like an airliner/cargoship that they sink themselves to have a tale for their propagandists to serve the world press etc.Assymetrial warfare type attacks are highly likely in a situation like this -indeed US soil and waters could be at risk of such.But this is ofcourse a knifes edge -it might lead to the US seeing no way out but winning outright at all costs.

I think there is a very real risk that this will occur in the next decade - as long as the Kims feel their power slipping .

But things could change - the US could get favourable results sooner rather than later in Stan and Iraq, and the economy could recover more rapidly than expected -leading to the odds for a coalition of Allies that actually will grit their teeth and see the war through rather than having to accept sort of a draw due to the enormous cost in life ousting the current regime will demand.Other factors would need to click into place as well of course .The NK populace might rise up and hope for outside intervention.

Distatseful as it may seem , propping up the regime until the Kims die off and a "new hand of leaders " is dealt might be the only alternative to a devastating war with hundreds of thousands dead -or indeed millions...

As for the "shooting range war" that some envision ,where the NK forces are eliminated enmasse by airpower alone seems highly unlikely .The massive columns that advanced on Baghdad would be the ideal scenario for the NK forces - provided their gamble onallied public support faltering holds water.

Just one guys opinion .

Wish I could see other options to get rid of the regime and liberate the people of NK .I think conventional war to topple it would entail battles on pair with the Korean War of 50-53 or possibly the second world war in terms of feriocity.

Not very optmistic prospects then from the Northern Branch of Twilighters United.

[kato13]

I had to login to move a thread from the archive and this thread caught my eye. I have lived in South Korea for about a quarter of the last five years, so this subject is obviously very important to me.

Some points. The South Koreans view the populace of the North as cousins held hostage. Everyone I have talked to desires reunification despite the monetary cost. The cost in blood is where people differ how reunification should be achieved.

Regarding manpower necessary to occupy the North, the ROK has a very capable army and massive reserves. As I mentioned above the motivation to unify is strong and I expect for at least a year all South Koreans (who are very duty bound) would make the sacrifices necessary.

Going into a little depth in to the duty they have towards their countrymen, I will tell you of one of the expectation of their hospitals. If someone is in long term recovery a family member is expected to come into the hospital and perform many of the duties that nurses would normally handle. If a person does not have a relative to help them, the family members of the other people in the room (their were 8 in the case I saw) will pull together to assist that person. It is not considered an annoyance, inconvenience, or hardship it is just their duty.

I have an anecdote about the brainwashing of the North Korean populace as well. While I was in Korea I happened to see a documentary about a North Korean woman who built a raft and floated something like 20km to the South. She was a 20 something widow with two children. From what I gathered she lived a simple agrarian life made much harder by the death of her husband. It was so hard in fact that while she worked in the market she would send her 3 and 5 year old children to look around the area of the market where rice was traded to pick up individual grains of rice which had escaped the bags.

Her five year old child was getting ill and she took him to the doctor. The doctors told her that he had leukemia and simply was going to die. They even went so far as to suggest that she give more of her meager food supply to the three year old since the five year old was a lost cause.

This woman, who in my mind seems to represent the average population, knew that the lives of her children would be better in the South. All that it took for her to overcome the fear she had of the consequences of an attempted escape was the pending death of one of her children. If you remove that fear I feel a vast majority of the North Korean population will be ecstatic about reunification.

To finish this post on a happy note the North Korean woman arrived safely and her son was successfully treated. She has a job and the last scene in the documentary showed them preparing for a substantial meal while the boy, now 8, was playing an X-box.

[Eddie]

She has a job and the last scene in the documentary showed them preparing for a substantial meal while the boy, now 8, was playing an X-box.

So what you're saying is, capitalism can cure leukemia!

[Grimace]

Or perhaps he was indicating that things are a lot worse off in North Korea compared to South Korea and that the woman and her children's life is better in the South than in the North.

This whole Korea thing is kind of eerie as this is what T.R. and I came up with as the causal event that propelled the world towards our reworked "Twilight". It all depends on whether China works with or against North Korea as to whether our altered history ends up becoming a reality. Spooky.

[Eddie]

Or perhaps he was indicating that things are a lot worse off in North Korea compared to South Korea and that the woman and her children's life is better in the South than in the North.

In case you missed it, it was a joke.

:megawall:

[Abbott Shaull]

Maybe the joke was lost in delivery! I missed it too, then again I tend to ignore........

[Eddie]

You know, in light of our past, I can't really tell if that was supposed to be humorous or if it was another jab at me.

If I put someone on the ignore list, their posts don't even show up on my screen, correct?

[Raellus]

Just your friendly neighborhood moderator popping in to remind everyone to play nice.

[Webstral]

Kato, your reference to cultural values is a timely one. While I would expect the ROK to provide a large body of troops, I wouldn't have expected the ROK to be willing to foot the entire bill for 500,000 troops to occupy the North for 3-5 years. You are suggesting perhaps they would be willing to do so due to their emotional bonds with their captured cousins. Very interesting...

Webstral

[headquarters]

Well - as kato says there are many reasons that Koreans would be motivated for a reunification ,on either side of the Bamboo Curtain.

However - a huge number of people will still be in the category of "hard core" regime supporters.Certainly enough to make any attempted intervention or stirring of the situation a messy business.

[Grimace]

In case you missed it, it was a joke.

:megawall:

I thought it might be, but since there were no smilies, no winks or anything else, I wasn't quite sure. Simple text tends not to convey humor without assistance. No worries from me, though. :)

[Eddie]

No worries. I figured the ridiculousness of capitalism curing cancer would be enough of a clue. I tend to overuse smilies or not use enough, I never seem to get it just right.

[pmulcahy11b]

So what you're saying is, capitalism can cure leukemia!

Ironically, it probably will be capitalism that cures leukemia, in a way -- if it's profitable enough, some corporate executive will figure out a way to do it.

[Eddie]

Ironically, it probably will be capitalism that cures leukemia, in a way -- if it's profitable enough, some corporate executive will figure out a way to do it.

Yeah, but then we totally derail this thread with the eternal, profits from the cure vice profits from the continued treatment debate.

We should probably leave it at a bad attempt at a joke from me and let the thread get back to the North Korea vs. South Korea debate.

:o

[kato13]

If I put someone on the ignore list, their posts don't even show up on my screen, correct?

Yes go to the User CP link on the far left of the blue bar.

Then click "Edit Ignore List"

Type in the name of the person you wish to ignore and click "Okay"

you will then see "This message is hidden because XXXXXX is on your ignore list."


Some notes:
* Threads will still show updates even if the only post is someone on your ignore list.

* You are not able to put Myself or any of the Moderators on ignore.


Going back to Leukemia, certain types do have up to an 90% successful treatment rates (in advanced countries).

[kato13]

Kato, your reference to cultural values is a timely one. While I would expect the ROK to provide a large body of troops, I wouldn't have expected the ROK to be willing to foot the entire bill for 500,000 troops to occupy the North for 3-5 years. You are suggesting perhaps they would be willing to do so due to their emotional bonds with their captured cousins. Very interesting...

Webstral

From what I have seen virtually all the animosity the ROK has for the North is directed at the highest echelon. Even the North Korean line soldiers are viewed with pity by the civilian populace. However that may change once shells land in Seoul and face to face combat begins.

[HorseSoldier]

If the ROK went it alone on occupying the North after reunification it would have a much lower media profile, making it a lot easier to get the job done, if they were facing guerilla resistance.

That's if there was any continued resistance -- communism seems much more effective at producing fanatically devoted insurgents among those whose experience with it is mostly fantasy rather than those who spend time living under communist regimes. Probably because the reality sucks so hard and because, unlike religion, communism is exclusively grounded in the here and now.

[headquarters]

From what I have seen virtually all the animosity the ROK has for the North is directed at the highest echelon. Even the North Korean line soldiers are viewed with pity by the civilian populace. However that may change once shells land in Seoul and face to face combat begins.

this sympathy might lessen the combat efficiency of the ROK units ?

I believe that the war of 50-53 -where both sides at one point beat the other side back and took their capital ( pretty interesting in terms of war as history study ) - showed that there was plenty animosity between the regular folk.A lot was to do with the hard core groups that roamed the lines like death squads taking care of "untrustworthy" individuals on either side .The executions and atrocities commited by these did a lot to infuriate the populace against eachother both sides had their own -also propaganda was harsh on both sides.

But I certainly agree that I would pity any countryman trapped in the NK regime ,and wish for a reunification to help them out -and given the altuistic sense of duty to nation that the Koreans have accordingto kato - the sense of kinship can be a major factor in the outcome.

[Rainbow Six]

Interesting article in today's Times...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/bill_emmott/article7140609.ece

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

Ironically, it probably will be capitalism that cures leukemia, in a way -- if it's profitable enough, some corporate executive will figure out a way to do it.

Actually more like Capitalism will create Wealthy people and some of them will be altruistic, and or just interested in the tax breaks that they will get. Either way Donations will go to a group that will likely fund this research.

::begin rant::
Capitalism is not evil or bad. People are Evil or bad. There are plenty of evil people in "Socialist Utopian society's". ;) Such as "Smiling Uncle Joe" Stalin, Pol Pot, Adolf Hitler (yes he used Socialism to advance his Plan of a Utopia), Fidel Castro, Hugo Chávez, Mao Zedong, Etc... ;) Sure are/were allot of lower class people, and very few rich in these societies.

Its easier to work against an evil capitalist then it is to work against an evil Government.

Greed in a capitalist society creates wealth. The greedy want more, so they invest to create wealth generating enterprises, and they get more money in return for a good investment. A poor investment, leads to loss.

Greed in a non capitalist society tends to just make a very few filthy rich, and very little if no regular rich or generally wealthy people. Just taking money from the rich does not create wealth. It is just forced redistribution.

In a non capitalistic society, there will be less wealthy to do this sort of thing. The governments will not do it unless they see some sort of benefit out of it either.
And no one like to have to do anything they are told they have to do. Its human nature. You will get a whole lot more cooperation with a kind word and a reward, then a threat. (most of the time anyway)

The filthy rich will always be the filthy rich. Some will die and give their wealth to their spoiled offspring, other will die and give it all to charity, and others will do a combination of those in varying degrees.

Heck one of those rich might develop some of those afflictions and be very generous donations in order to help find a cure.
::end rant::

It takes all kinds. :D

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

No worries. I figured the ridiculousness of capitalism curing cancer would be enough of a clue. I tend to overuse smilies or not use enough, I never seem to get it just right.

See my last post. Actually a capitalist based economy will more likely to be the environment were it will be found. Though that's just one mans opinion. :)

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

It would be the end of NK.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

Ditto, what he said.

[Eddie]

See my last post. Actually a capitalist based economy will more likely to be the environment were it will be found. Though that's just one mans opinion. :)

I don't doubt that. I never doubted that. I was being a smartass about the Xbox comment. It struck me humorous that the information Kato provided ended with a boy playing an Xbox. All that seriousness and drama to end with an Xbox.

I have nothing against capitalism. I'm from America and two of my bachelors are in business. I epitomize a capitalist. I fully understand the advances that competition spurs historically.

I will try to refrain from making smartassed remarks anymore as nine times out of ten around here they are misunderstood.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

I don't doubt that. I never doubted that. I was being a smartass about the Xbox comment. It struck me humorous that the information Kato provided ended with a boy playing an Xbox. All that seriousness and drama to end with an Xbox.

I have nothing against capitalism. I'm from America and two of my bachelors are in business. I epitomize a capitalist. I fully understand the advances that competition spurs historically.

I will try to refrain from making smartassed remarks anymore as nine times out of ten around here they are misunderstood.

Ahh, LOL No problem. :D, I did see it out of context.

You know I just realized what this new generation should be called.

"Generation Xbox" :P

[Nowhere Man 1966]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Plus, where would Mom get spare parts for her Hyundai? :D

Seriously, this would be a huge mess indeed. I have an interest in following the two Koreas, my father was stationed at Camp Casey in 1955/56 and my Uncle Chuck was a paratrooper for the 101st in the Korean War.

Chuck

P.S. As to car parts, there are third party vendors.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Agreed. South Korea is already an economic powerhouse. I think China would view a unified Korea as an even more dangerous economic competitor. Yeah, it would take a decade or two for the South to pull the North up to something approaching solvency, but once it does, look out! I mean, West Germany/Germany did something very similar in just over a decade or so.

And don't make the mistake of underestimating the NK military. Yeah, it's probably more bark than it is bite but we made the mistake of underestimating it once and we almost got our asses kicked as a result. Even if the NKs lost the conventional war fairly quickly, if/when it went asymetric, we could end up pacifying/stabilizing the North for a very long time. Throw in NBC weapons at some point and it could get very, very ugly before it was all over.

True, just look at the status of Hyundai and Kia cars now. Twenty years ago, they were the butt of jokes, not much better than a Yugo in most people's eyes, although I've talked to some people who said even the early 1990's models held up very well. Mom bought a new Hyundai in 2004 because it was affordable, they are an alternative to people who cannot afford the new American or Japanese cars.

Chuck

[pmulcahy11b]

True, just look at the status of Hyundai and Kia cars now. Twenty years ago, they were the butt of jokes, not much better than a Yugo in most people's eyes, although I've talked to some people who said even the early 1990's models held up very well. Mom bought a new Hyundai in 2004 because it was affordable, they are an alternative to people who cannot afford the new American or Japanese cars.

Chuck

I've had a Kia Sedona minivan for nearly five years now, without a single problem except for a loose gas door over the gas cap. (And the stereo -- the factory stereo on a Kia sucks big ones.) It has better pullout than my previous Ford Contour Sport, even though the engines are of the same horsepower and the Sedona is a thousand pounds heavier.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I've had a Kia Sedona minivan for nearly five years now, without a single problem except for a loose gas door. (And the stereo -- the factory stereo on a Kia sucks big ones.) It has better pullout than my previous Ford Contour Sport, even though the engines are of the same horsepower and the Sedona is a thousand pounds heavier.

The Kia's transmission could be geared differently so that could be the reason for the better performance. Mom's Sonata is from 2004 and the only part needed replacement was a light bulb in a tailight so far along with tires. At work we have a Ford Ranger with a 2.3 Liter 4 cylinder, that thing is a pig, slow pickup and so on. Mom's Hyundai engine is bigger and more powerful. I drive the Chevy Colorado myself, an Isuzu I370 clone with a 5 cylinder engine. The Colorado has quick pickup, it had 242 hp vs the Ford's 141.

Chuck

[Abbott Shaull]

Father-in-Law and his sister own Hyundai Santa Fe and they have no complaint about them...

[pmulcahy11b]

Here's a little tidbit I got from a Jane's newsletter. (I don't have the money for an actual subscription, so all I get is scraps.)

"A so-called 'bubble jet' effect, rather than a direct hit, is likely to have been responsible for the sinking of South Korean warship Chon An in the Yellow Sea (West Sea) off the coast of North Korea on 26 March. The chairman of the South Korean team investigating, Yoon Duk-yong, said: "The possibility of an underwater non-contact explosion is bigger than that of an underwater contact explosion, considering the shape of the severed surfaces and conditions." "The chances of an internal explosion, fatigue fracture or collision with a reef is zero," added Yoon, raising further the suspicion of North Korean involvement."

Note that I am behind in reading these, and this is from 04 May.

[boogiedowndonovan]

this hasn't gotten much play in the media and it probably won't change much in the way of North Korea/PRC relations. But North Korean border guards recently shot and killed three Chinese civilians, smugglers actually.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703302604575294421556582924.html?m od=wsj_india_main

[Raellus]

More Nork weirdness:

According to the broadcasters during today's DPRK vs. Brazil soccer match, the North Korean fans that you see during their games in SA aren't actually North Koreans at all but are paid Chinese actors. It makes sense since real NKs would probably jump at the opportunity to defect.

Also, the NK coach claims to receive in-game tactical instructions from the Dear Leader via and invisible communications device. His advice apparently wasn't so great today.

You've gotta love those wacky NKs!

[headquarters]

More Nork weirdness:

According to the broadcasters during today's DPRK vs. Brazil soccer match, the North Korean fans that you see during their games in SA aren't actually North Koreans at all but are paid Chinese actors. It makes sense since real NKs would probably jump at the opportunity to defect.

Also, the NK coach claims to receive in-game tactical instructions from the Dear Leader via and invisible communications device. His advice apparently wasn't so great today.

You've gotta love those wacky NKs!

It is a tragically funny story ,if it is true.
I thought NK played rather well though .

As for Dear Leaders instructions ( via NK satelite from PyongYang where he sits in his jumpsuit in a recliner swigging beer ,surrounded by pouting teenage entertainment brigade girls that massage him before the 140 inch big screen - now,what World Cup coach wouldnt benefit from that !)

I like the sobriquet that his potential successor has gotten - "Brilliant Comrade" . Makes you wonder what they call the one that drinks and whores around in Macau " Decadent comrade "? And the one that is supposedly deemed to feminine " Dodgy Comrade "?

[Abbott Shaull]

Did anyone catch the tidbit today out of North Korea..

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100616/ap_on_re_as/as_skorea_ship_sinks

Funny how they warning the UN that something they initiated when they sunk the boat could lead to nuclear war. Talk like that sounds like they are just itching for a fight, but want the UN, US, and South Korea to appear to start the fighting. Maybe that is North knows they can't win and want China to help so maybe some of the food that China sent to feed it troop can be siphon off to feed it own population behind the front lines.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think the North Koreans want the South Koreans to pretend nothing happened -- and thereby admit that they are powerless in the face of "powerful North Korean war machine."

[boogiedowndonovan]

More Nork weirdness:

According to the broadcasters during today's DPRK vs. Brazil soccer match, the North Korean fans that you see during their games in SA aren't actually North Koreans at all but are paid Chinese actors. It makes sense since real NKs would probably jump at the opportunity to defect.

Also, the NK coach claims to receive in-game tactical instructions from the Dear Leader via and invisible communications device. His advice apparently wasn't so great today.

You've gotta love those wacky NKs!

thats pretty funny. my coworker and I were joking that the Dear Leader edited out the two Brazil goals from the world cup footage that would be broadcast to the DPRK so that they could declare DPRK beats Brazil 1-0!

[Raellus]

thats pretty funny. my coworker and I were joking that the Dear Leader edited out the two Brazil goals from the world cup footage that would be broadcast to the DPRK so that they could declare DPRK beats Brazil 1-0!

I wouldn't be surprised.

[Abbott Shaull]

I think the North Koreans want the South Koreans to pretend nothing happened -- and thereby admit that they are powerless in the face of "powerful North Korean war machine."

Yeah they want the status quo kept. Much like that happen along in the inter-German Border.

You know back in the 80s Aircraft would regular go down both in and around German and Korea and nothing was much done, even when an aircraft would crash in the US. The military would just shrug it off. Then until about 2003 any time an aircraft went down there would be so called safety stand-downs to allow everyone to go over procedures and make sure everyone was doing the right thing. Since we are back to the same. Which is always amaze me to a point that air crews seem more expendable than others.

[headquarters]

I wouldn't be surprised.

maybe so .
It is known that NK leadership used footage from the 2000 celebrations and big international sporting events or some such as stock footage when making " news broadcasts " about the leaders "succesful" visit to Europe or the worlds reactions to PyongYangs antics.

I see the following imagery - footage of huge crowds say in London or Paris ,waving flags and cheering ( maybe a few criers as well )

Que in blaring news reel type music with upbeat tempo/commentary read in enthusiastic and agrressive tempo :

"All over the world the people of all nations are celebrating the Dear Leader as he comes to visit them.The visit offers them hope to escape the capitalist cages they are trapped in by their feudal minded overlords.Material assistance was given by the Peoples commite for overseas aid and political education was initiated by Dear Leader personally ,enligthening and inspiring millions throughout the blighted nations of the capitalist west .
The visit was a great success and a triumph for the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea thanks to our communal efforts and the brilliant guidance of our Dear Leader.
Long live the Dear Leader !"

[Rainbow Six]

thats pretty funny. my coworker and I were joking that the Dear Leader edited out the two Brazil goals from the world cup footage that would be broadcast to the DPRK so that they could declare DPRK beats Brazil 1-0!

The BBC showed a spoof film of exactly that scenario after the South Africa - Uruguay match last night...

[headquarters]

Just thought I would add a few laughables to the mix :

http://askakorean.blogspot.com/2010/01/ask-korean-news-north-korean-jokes.html

[Webstral]

Which is always amaze me to a point that air crews seem more expendable than others.

I'm not sure air crews are more expendable--just at greater risk.

Webstral

[pmulcahy11b]

Yeah they want the status quo kept. Much like that happen along in the inter-German Border.

It is rumored that there were frequent border shootouts and even dogfights in the air above the inter-German border. The former is believable to me -- it would be harder to hide a dogfight from the public.

[boogiedowndonovan]

It is rumored that there were frequent border shootouts and even dogfights in the air above the inter-German border. The former is believable to me -- it would be harder to hide a dogfight from the public.

I remember reading about this when I was a kid, not quite the inter-German border.

http://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/21/world/mig-s-shoot-at-army-copter-on-west-german-czech-border.html

[Graebarde]

I remember reading about this when I was a kid, not quite the inter-German border.

http://www.nytimes.com/1984/04/21/world/mig-s-shoot-at-army-copter-on-west-german-czech-border.html

There were always incidents which the media/general public were never aware of. While the Cobra was not hit, is probably intentional. Sides always tested each other.

cira December 1970, ROK about 60km north of Kunsan on the Yellow Sea, and more than 200km south of the DMZ. Christmas eve to be exact as I just arrived in my unit on my second tour to the Far East. People are standing looking out at the sea. When I asked what was going on I too looked out across the rice paddies and sea. In the distance I saw green tracers rising from the sea and orange rocket trails coming from the darkened sky. The ROK air force was in the process of sinking a NK gunboat about six miles out. Out of the fryingpan into the fire I found I was headed. The incident was never reported in the news that I saw. Neither was the fire fight my section was in the following August. In 1971, there were over 370 'incidents' from the DMZ south with only a few making it to the media.

[Abbott Shaull]

Yeah, that one thing I remember the Drill Sergeants drilling into us during basic and AIT, without coming out saying it. Just from my Basic/AIT company out of us who were Regular Army, many went strait from Fort Benning to Korea directly. Several more were heading to Germany, at the time. Both the inter-border and DMZ have been home of several incidents that largely get unreported.

There are two reasons:

1. Each side is testing the other.

2. No one really wants a shooting war.

Many of these incidents are written up as nerves. As for the dogfights...It not so much of a dogfight, but pilots being order to fly into the others territory to test their reaction. Many of the times, they were only suppose to get close enough to scare the shit out of the offending pilot, but when you sent up aircraft loaded for bear shit happens.

Not saying that none of the unreported incidents were unintentional, but the thing is if you are being the one shot down or taking fire, you aren't going to ask if it was or wasn't, in your mind it was. It was a game that was played for years, and in some of the unfriendly borders of the world, it is still played on the daily basis...

[Legbreaker]

Not all problems can be solved with high explosives.
How DARE you say that Web!!!
Dem's fightin' words!

:peace:

[Panther Al]

It is rumored that there were frequent border shootouts and even dogfights in the air above the inter-German border. The former is believable to me -- it would be harder to hide a dogfight from the public.

Don't know about the latter, but as to the former, the answer is Yes, there was a few shots fired in each direction. Never anything too serious, but boys with guns will be boys. By and large, the Czech border was actually pretty laid back in contrast.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Didn't LeMay order RB-36 and RB-47 flights to do everything just shy of provoke a full-scale war? E.g., try to engage Soviet fighters and force them to shoot in defense, etc.?

[Panther Al]

From what I have heard about him, it wouldn't shock me.