T2K Today: Korea

[Raellus]

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South? I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though? Would China intervene on its behalf?

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

[Webstral]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

[cavtroop]

Originally Posted by Webstral

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Funny you bring this up, I was just thinking about this the other day.

As Webstral said, casualties would be horrific - on a scale not seen since, well, the last Korean war. I have no idea where the US would get the manpower to fight it - anyone not locked up in Iraq/AFG are either winding down from a recent deployment, or gearing up for the next. I guess those guys would go, and the poor guys currently in Iraq/AFG would be in for a long haul.

No question the world markets would tank - EU is on the edge now anyways. And I cant even begin to imagine what Chinas response would be. They'd be getting hammered by the world economy collapsing (who would buy their products?).

[Jason Weiser]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

[Frank Frey]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow?" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing?

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

Out Here,
Frank Frey

[HorseSoldier]

I also agree -- PRC has a vested interest in keeping Korea from going into a serious melt down, which would be bad for business. I'd think they'd pull the plug.

Without massive Chinese logistical support, I don't think the NK military could make much of a go of an attack on the South. If the defenders could hold the line against the first surge from the North, that'd pretty much be the end of it, from a strategic perspective. Might not be much comfort to guys on the line fighting while North Korea is effectively dead on its feet, but risk of another Pusan perimeter and all would be gone.

Big question is what would happen if/when ROK/US/etc or Chinese troops tried entering North Korea during a conflict -- would the populace start tearing down the Stalinist monuments and decorations, or would true believers head to the hills to fight on? (Or some of both.) What the NK regime might do with their WMD programs is another scary one.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Frank Frey

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

It seems like the PRC is always dragging its feet when it comes to economic sanctions against NK. I'm not sure the PRC wants a unified, democratic, capitalist Korea right next door. I'm not sure it would want a totalitarian, communist Korea next door either. It'd be great if the PRC took care of the NK problem for us but it would only create other, possibly larger problems, for all of the players in the region (including the U.S.).

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

[Jason Weiser]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno? Weaponized Smallpox?

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

[Dogger]

I Remember all the doom predictions about Saddam's "million man army" in Gulf War I. How they were a bunch of "hardened combat veterans" after years of war against Iran etc etc. We saw how that went.

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

I'm not sure of the state of the SK Army, but I'm sure it's 1000% better than it was in 1950. Add to all this the fact that I think the Allies would in short order control the skies over NK and that the NK forces will probably be in the field en masse and thus be subject to all the punishment such forces suffer when caught out in the open.

Also, there's very little possibility of a massive 'sneak attack' this time with SAT sitting overhead all day everyday. And should the Dear Leader get stupid enough to lob missiles at Japan...I'm not so sure they would sit this one out.

I'm also not to worked up about and WMD from NK being used outside of the Korean Peninsular, we have Ticonderoga class cruisers that now have the capability of -at least- shooting at outbound ICBMs and there's the ABM sites in Alaska that have again scored -at least some- hits on test targets that might head for the US West Coast...and any NK aircraft trying to make some kind of 'bomb run' on Japan or Okinawa would be lit up by Allied aircraft/navy ships long before they got anywhere IMO.

Yes, from a manpower POV the US would be challenged in the opening phase of combat, however air assets could easily be shifted from the ME and possibly offset NK numbers on the ground until greater forces arrived.

This is of course just my opinion on all this.

[pmulcahy11b]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Dogger

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

[Matt W]

Originally Posted by Raellus

What do the Chinese know that we don't?

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)
http://alturl.com/ve28

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks? They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they?

IMHO, the Chinese govt is looking for an excuse to take the US down a peg. Just imagine the following scenario.

The NK's invade SK. They probably could take Seoul (Less than 40 klicks from frontier.)

USA Air Force out of Japan and US Navy swarm NK Air Force, then turn the attention of the B-52's on the NK Army

As the NK casualty rate climbs China joins in. Not w/ military, with economics. Demand FULL PAYMENT of all US debt China owns. Payment due in GOLD, or diamonds or other form of permanent value. US Bankrupts in less than 20 days....

[Cdnwolf]

Interesting that in my timeline for Twilight 2013, I have North Korea launching nukes at the south and Guam, Japan. Also people forget that one corner of North Korea touches Russia too... so they have an interest in that part of the world too.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Matt W

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

Wow. I'd never heard of Rajin before. That would explain a lot. No wonder the Chinese are willing to sleep with the enemy.

As for demanding immediate and full payment of U.S. debts to China, it's a horrifying thought (and a great reason to pay down the defecit), but unlikely to occur since it would bankrupt China's biggest customer. There must be another, more subtle way to hurt our economy without completely destroying it.

[Jason Weiser]

Gotta agree with Rae,
The Chinese and the US are locked into an economic version of MAD. Neither country can survive without the other now, at least not economically. This port notwithstanding, the Russians can't get into a war with the Chinese over this. The Russian army may be great for kicking the snot out of Georgia, but taking on the PLA? I don't think so. The Russian plan for war with China? Go nuclear fast. The problem of Raijin gets solved if there's a Korean presence period. Doesn't matter whether that's Nork or ROK. Something tells me the PRC's making the same calculus now. The PRC doesn't want to stay in NK if it comes to that. Probably go in, smash the NKPA, arrest or kill the Kims and cut a deal with the ROKs, then make sure the US goes home and/or doesn't base troops north of the old 38th Parallel. If all that happens, I can't see the PRC thinking this would be a bad thing.

[Dog 6]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

that was most definitely true when I was in ROK in 1993. if the nk's are dumb enough to invade they are done for, with or with out our help.

[Dogger]

Originally Posted by Eddie

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Dogger

Agreed, and they will probably pound Seoul into the ground at the onset. However, the location of a lot of those guns is well known and no doubt first on the target list.

Yeah, but the 2nd ID Commander, MG Tucker, is still pretty concerned about them. I was privileged to sit through a two hour briefing he gave about two weeks ago.

[HorseSoldier]

Weaponized Smallpox?

Slate wiper if they can pop it in enough places to prevent firewalling it.

I'd guess that if small pox broke out among Chinese or Russian troops at the front, their parent governments would nuke them from along with reducing North Korea to glowing cinders.

Have it introduced in the midst of a Twilight nuclear exchange and the human race will simply die off until population density is too low to let it spread effectively. Then we'll just have endemic occasional outbreaks that take 10% here or 20% there in bad years.

I always wanted to run a T2K game where players were somewhere near-ish Central Asia (Iran, or maybe a Russian game set in the Rodina) where characters had to deal with some roving neo-nomads who got exposed to something nasty while looting a Soviet bioweapons lab and were now carrying Small Pox or genetically modified Plague or something equally foul.

[Abbott Shaull]

The location of Seoul has been the one downside for the South.

Yeah, the only reason the US 8th Army HQ, 2nd Infantry Division HQ, and one of the 2nd combat brigade with other US assets is support. I am sure the South Korea realizes that if the war goes hot again, that it will take a long time for the US to move reinforcements into the region if we could ever. The government in the South Korea on one hand realize that with the 8th US Army, 2nd Infantry Division HQ and the one combat brigade with other assets under the UN means if something starts they can hopefully get help from somewhere.

So I understand the 2nd Infantry Division Commander being concerned as he should be. He knows if the North starts shelling south, his units would be on the target list no matter how fast the South would be able to respond and silence them.

As for the port, I don't see Russia or China wanting to see the South Korea government in control of a new unified Korea. At this time they realize regardless who control the port, it will keep them honest with each other.

China and Russia don't trust each other, but they realize they can't fight each other. Much like China and the US economies, both side don't care for it, but realize there not much either can do without ramifications that either economy would collapse. It is use US cash that allow China to buy Russia Hardware.... Russia selling to China, even though they know the Chinese would use it against them if they had to, due to need cash....kinda of vicious cycle...

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Abbott Shaull

As for the port, I don't see Russia or China wanting to see the South Korea government in control of a new unified Korea. At this time they realize regardless who control the port, it will keep them honest with each other.

Agreed. South Korea is already an economic powerhouse. I think China would view a unified Korea as an even more dangerous economic competitor. Yeah, it would take a decade or two for the South to pull the North up to something approaching solvency, but once it does, look out! I mean, West Germany/Germany did something very similar in just over a decade or so.

And don't make the mistake of underestimating the NK military. Yeah, it's probably more bark than it is bite but we made the mistake of underestimating it once and we almost got our asses kicked as a result. Even if the NKs lost the conventional war fairly quickly, if/when it went asymetric, we could end up pacifying/stabilizing the North for a very long time. Throw in NBC weapons at some point and it could get very, very ugly before it was all over.

[headquarters]

Originally Posted by Eddie

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

Firstly -a preface - this is in part a political discussion so please consider that I offer my views in order to hear what others think about them -I dont write with intent to provoke .

To the case :

I am with Eddie on this one - they might have all sorts of WMDs for these arty pieces .Also they have Seoul in range .

A "Nork" ( love the name ) invasion of the South seemes really far fetched with todays situation.War can take other forms though , and the Norks are unpredictable .

Victory isnt assured imho- it depends on what the objectives are .

Was Gulf 1 a full victory ? Of course it was - but objectives had to be shifted from "kick out Saddam" to "liberate Kuwait and destroy his army - only" to attain this . The kicking out couldnt be done until Gulf 2.

I agree that the US and ROk forces are more than capable of winning a war outright- so the question will turn to -at what cost ?

I believe, for one ,at the price of Seoul, and 500 000 civillian South Koreans for starters .

Then as a second phase ,the massive airborne retaliation will probably kill
100 000 NK service personel ( pulling numbers out of a hat here guys) and God knows what the collateral damage list will read like.

I cant really back it up with hard facts right now, but I have a chilling sensation down my spine that the NORKS arent going to be bowled over the same way the Iraqis were.
For one ,their nationalism goes further back and is more homogenous and hardcore than the composite Iraqi nation .They seem much more hard core-if poor and underequipped. Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army .

A third phase would probably have to mean incursion onto NK soil . ( A lucky cruise missile hit might solve many problems to alleviate the need for this ,but I have read books from US service personel that have been to PyongYang before - the leadership has had bunkers that can stand up to some nuclear weapons for over 60 years .)
Such an operation/invasion opens up a whole can of new problems .

The western way of waging war has great strengths being the continuation of politics by other means ,as we are democracies and thus our causes are mostly just ,give or take a few -but its major weakness is this also . We cannot ( yes -lumping all of us together ) take the same casualties as the axis of evil guys .Our populace has no stomach for it .Support for the war will dwindle if death tolls rise and the match goes into overtime or if a rematch starts looming on the horizon .Further more - civillian casualties are also a similar concern ,also in the enemies population .

If my haphazard calculations have any merit than I see a death toll in total of around 1000 000 people ,mostly civillians that the Norks attack in Seoul and their own civvies that they will use as shields etc to try to null out US air superiority .A lot of dead NK service personell as well . I will not try to guesstimate at the number of ROK and US personell that will pay the ultimate price - I suspect the number to be staggering compared to the relatively low casualty number from the two Gulf wars -not counting the ongoing operations since 2003.

Thus - considering the risks and the potential costs, I dont think PyongYang could be "defeated" today - if you take their objective as a POV - to stay in power at any cost .Sort of like the Japanese strategy for the battle of Iwo Jima. Make it as costly as possible , and hope this will lead to the possibility for brokering a deal.Sure ,they would loose their huge army ,countless civillians would die and devestation would by all around .But if they could get the ROK and the US to back off, they could stay in control through harsh internal security measures and by more time for the Juche.

As I said in the preface -just one guys opinion.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by headquarters

Also I believe they have better organization and better training than the former Iraqi army.

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

One only has to look at previous spec ops missions the Norks pulled in the south. They fought very hard, very well, and chose death rather than surrender in most cases. Granted it doesn't give any real indication to the rest of their forces, but I still wouldn't put them in the same category as the Iraqis - too many differences.

For one, they are poor yes, but they aren't motivated or fueled by money. Their ideology (juche and what not) is planted deep in all of them from birth. I recommend downloading one of the many investigative documentaries filmed in North Korea on that subject. It's surreal. The whole country is like one big insane asylum. Saying they are brainwashed is just barely scrapping the surface of what goes on there.

[Targan]

I think MacArthur was right. Should have nuked the bastards. I can't believe that such a kooky family has managed to maintain a cult of personality for so long, keeping the majority of the North Korean population in abject poverty along the way. Its a pity the US is stretched so thin militarilly. I'd like to see the US and its allies (including Australia) roll on into North Korea and implement regime change with extreme prejudice.

[Caradhras]

For info guys...

The word 'Norks' is UK slang for, well, "What a great pair of norks!". You get the picture

[Eddie]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Another concern of MG Tucker's. According to him (and he gets better intel updates than I do), it's apparently the largest group of special operations forces in the world.

[Abbott Shaull]

North Korea Special Operation troops have been conducting probes for many years. Strangely Korea is one of the few places where each side conduct several probes with their unit on scale that would be on par with the Cold War with US and Soviet would do, sometimes leaving signs they were there just to prove they were, while most of the time, the other side doesn't have a clue they are their.

One of several reason why North Korea being able to make Nuke is so annoying, bother me so much at times. More so than the missiles they have tested, these are window dressing that suppose to draw attention away. If they can make a "suitcase" and slip in into the South during one of these probes... Arm a sleeper cell their some target they wouldn't have to take out in the initial hours...Just let the sleeper cell take them out with the nuke...

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

Quite. Especially their (huge) special forces.

Yes, they have a lot of troops that they designate "special operations" troops. For the most part, though -- and I'm not letting any classified cat out of the bag here -- their "special operations troops" are simply well-trained infantry with additional training in infiltration and rear-area ops, similar to US light infantry forces. Most of their "special ops" troops are simply light fighters, in essence.