RN7
01-20-2012, 02:45 AM
Thought I'd just put up a hypotethical article on how an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near future might pan out. I took the idea from an article in Popular Mechanics and heavily reworked it.
Which senario do you think would work best?
SENARIO 1: CHINESE VICTORY
May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan.
Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defences and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one.
The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island.
May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours
With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding U.S. forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by Patriot PAC-3 batteries from the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. 10 of the Chinese missiles are destroyed but the American batteries are off network and in a state of confusion due to Chinese hacking disruption, and the rest slip through and devastate Kadena.
Some of the missiles contain guided warheads with munitions that crater both runways, the other missiles air-burst over the base and devastate barracks, radar arrays and hangars. Although Kadena is far from destroyed it’s of no use to American forces until its runways can be repaired. The F-15s on their way to Taiwan are ordered to stand down and divert to mainland Japan or Guam which they have the range to reach, but only Kadena is close enough to Taiwan to effectively support combat air patrols. Other USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea, and Hawaii cannot now land at Kadena, including advanced F-22 fighters. For the present aerial tankers are not considered an acceptable solution due to the reluctance of using tankers over open water and the outing of the US communication network in the region. Although US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific, and the Pentagon is considering using B-2 stealth bombers to strike China, for the moment America’s capacity to support Taiwan is reliant on naval power.
May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours
Aboard the USS George Washington approximately 1000 miles from the Taiwan Strait, klaxons start to wail as airborne missiles are detected, and this time headed straight for the carrier at supersonic speed.
The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and with the loss of satellite cover and Kadena for ASW sweeps, all available submarines are directed to the seas south and east of Taiwan to track their location.
Without her usual nuclear attack submarine escort the Washington and its escort of nine AEGIS cruisers and destroyers has headed straight into the path of two waiting Chinese Kilo-class submarines. Russian built and extremely quit, the Kilos lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns, and the Washington’s escorts fail to detect them. Both submarines rise to launch depth and fire two missiles from their torpedo tubes. The Russian made SS-N-27B missiles head straight for the carrier skimming the water at high speed. When they approach within 10 nautical miles of their target a rocket propelled warhead separates from the missile and sprint to Mach 3 just 30 feet above the waves. Crew managing the carrier’s combat systems desperately fire three Mk.29 Sea Sparrow launchers and the six-barreled SRBOC Mk.36 decoy launchers which deploy infrared flares and chaff, while the four 20mm six-barreled Phalanx CIWS churn out a wall of lead at 3,000 rounds per minute. Three missiles are destroyed or deflected away from the carrier, but the fourth missile detonates on its intended target and tears a hole in the side of the Washington. More Chinese missiles rapidly break the surface and dash towards the Washington but are quickly detected by the AEGIS escorts and quickly disposed of. Anti-submarine munitions from the Washington’s escort destroyers litter the ocean and tear one of the Kilo’s apart. The second Chinese submarine escapes but is hunted down by ASW helicopters and destroyed with an hour. However aboard the George Washington over 100 crewmen are dead and injured.
May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours
At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the now-sunk Kilos. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer.
Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighters appear at the edge of the carrier battle groups radar screens. The Washington rapidly launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. With no satellite coverage the AEGIS escorts can only form a defensive ring around the carrier and their interceptor missiles lift off as the J-7s fire a volley of antiship cruise missiles. Unaware that the Chinese J-7s have been retrofitted as unmanned decoys, and not being able to trust their own computer networks due to the hacking attacks on Kadena, the F/A-18s and escort ships must pick targets independently and double up on incoming fighters and missiles which waist their own missiles. All of the J-7’s and most of their cruise missiles are shot down, but one missile gets through the defensive screen and blows another hole in the USS George Washington. By the time the F/A-18 pilots realize that the J-7s are unmanned, another group of Chinese fighters appear from the east at the edge of the Washington’s groups radar coverage. These fighters are manned and high-performance J-11 and J-11B aircraft, and the F/A-18s pilots move their aircraft into intercept position. However the Chinese fighter pilots are only interested in the George Washington, and launch their antiship cruise missiles at the carrier group and quickly disengage and head for China at high speed. Once again the Washington’s escorts engage the incoming missiles and most of the missiles are destroyed or miss their target. But two cruise missiles get through the escort screen, one hitting the destroyer USS John S. McCain and the other penetrating the hull of the George Washington, bringing the great ship to a halt.
Before there is time to regroup and assess the damage done to the aircraft carrier, an unharmed U.S. satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the carrier group. As the five Chinese missiles begin to enter orbit the AEGIS escorts respond by launching multistage SM-3 interceptors that deploy self-guided craft designed to ram ballistic missiles. However only two connect with the ASBM’s in orbit and three Chinese missiles re-enter the atmosphere and perform a swooping, high-g maneuver that allows them to scan the ocean's surface for their moving target. One missile falls harmlessly into the sea after being damaged during re-entry, while another missile misses its target by a few miles due to technical failure. The third missile slams into the George Washington, shattering its superstructure and kills hundreds. The damage doesn't reach the two nuclear reactors, but the carrier’s flight deck has two gaping holes and below in the hangers the carnage and damage has made the ship useless, and it will take years in dry-dock to make it seaworthy again.
May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours
The Washington carrier group must now retreat, although the extensive damage to the carrier has made that a difficult proposition as tugs must be sent to retrieve her. If this was an all-out war China would send another wave of fighters and missiles to quickly finish her off, but it was not China’s ambition to start an extended and costly war with the United States. China’s aim was to deny American access to Taiwan prior to an invasion of the island. Faced with an escalating crisis with China the United States is also facing complete humiliation over Taiwan in less than one day, in addition to the loss of nearly two thousand dead and wounded sailors on board the Washington and its escorts, hundreds more dead and wounded at Kadena, and billions of dollars’ worth of hardware and equipment losses including a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire. Although Britain is sympathetic to America’s position, both Russia and France demand that America withdraws its forces from the area and refrains from attacking mainland China or Chinese forces in Taiwan, a demand that is echoed by most members of the European Union. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are openly siding with America but refuse to be drawn into further conflict with China.
May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that the unification of all Chinese states, provinces and territories that was begun in 1921 and proclaimed by Mao Zedong in 1949, has now been completed. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage of PRC troops landing practically unopposed from military aircraft in Taipei is broadcast to the world. Additional footage of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait, and of the crippled USS George Washington in the East China Sea is also broadcast to the world media. Non-Chinese reporters and sporadic radio broadcasts from Taiwan describe heavy street to street fighting in many cities across the island and naval bombardment of the Taiwanese coast by Chinese warships and fighter-bombers. US satellite imagery confirms major Chinese beachheads and ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of Chinese landing craft along the Taiwanese coast. Although no announcements over the political status of the island of Taiwan have been made, the rest of the world is expecting to hear an official Taiwanese surrender before the end of the day.
In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China as American air and naval forces begin to leave their bases around the world for the Pacific. Although plans for nuclear strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, future bomber and submarine launched cruise missile strikes are not discounted. Russia’s president announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Chinese waters to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, and Russian air force fighters and air defense systems could be deployed to China if the Chinese government requests it. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the temporary withdrawal of US forces to their bases in the Western Pacific. Gingrich also demands the full withdrawal of PRC forces from Taiwan and a free democratic vote for the political status of Taiwan. The United States government also announces a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese imports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese and Taiwanese assets in the United States.
SENARIO 2: UNITED STATES VICTORY
May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan.
Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defenses and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one.
The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island.
May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours
With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding US forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by batteries of the recently introduced Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) and Patriot PAC-3 of the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. Each MEADS can operate autonomously and cover 360 degrees of airspace, and as it doesn’t rely on a single computer network to coordinate its launches it is relatively immune from Chinese hacking. 18 incoming Chinese missiles are destroyed as they enter Okinawan airspace, one missile falls into the sea due to technical failure, and one missile hits one of Kadena’s runways doing some damage which can be repaired by the end of the day. With Kadena fully operational the first wave of F-15E’s that are on their way to Taiwan are joined by a second wave that leaves the air base as the Chinese ballistic missiles are being destroyed over Okinawa. Chinese AWAC’s over the Taiwan Strait detect the approach of 40 USAF F-15E’s rapidly heading towards Taiwan. With news of the failed attack on Kadena reaching them from Beijing, the AWAC’s order PLA fighters over Taiwan airspace to withdraw across the Taiwan Strait and not engage American aircraft. The sight of USAF fighters thundering across the sky rallies the beleaguered Taiwanese government and soldiers for the present.
May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours
As US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific. Kadena air base starts to receive reinforcements from USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea and Hawaii. The Washington battle group is en route to the Taiwan Strait over 1,000 miles to the southwest, but long ranged USAF F-15’s and F-22’s from Kadena are available to guard the Washington as it approaches Taiwan.
The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and the loss of satellite coverage has enhanced the threat from them. However the failed attack on Kadena has allowed for less desperate defensive measures to combat them as navy P-8 Poseidon ASW aircraft can efficiently track and hunt them from Kadena. The Washington carrier group approaching Taiwan is escorted not only by long ranged USAF fighters, but also a state-of-the-art Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine.
The USS North Dakota, a Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine commissioned in 2014, is one of the quietest and most powerful submarines ever operated by the US Navy. Operating in hunter killer mode, the North Dakota utilizes its stealth advantage and superior sensor capabilities to detect any lurking Chinese submarines ahead of the Washington carrier group. The North Dakota has also been aided in its task by the deployment of underwater drones to patrol between Taiwan and Okinawa. These torpedo-size drones use continuous active sonar arrays, which release a steady stream of energy to track hostile submarines in their areas of deployment, and were deployed by escort ships hours before the carrier group reaches hazardous waters. Two waiting Chinese Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, built in Russia and extremely quit, lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns and are armed with deadly Russian made SS-N-27B cruise missile. However their menacing presence is revealed to the North Dakota by the drones. Aware that their presence has been located and knowing they haven’t the speed and technology to match the Virginia Class attack boat they scatter before been sunk. One Kilo succeeds in escaping from the North Dakota and reports the presence of the Washington carrier group in the East China Sea. The other Kilo is blown apart by an Mk.48 heavyweight torpedo.
May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours
At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the Kilo. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a Xianglong high-altitude, long ranged reconnaissance UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer.
Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighter aircraft appears on the battle groups radar screens. The Washington launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. The Chinese have retrofitted the J-7s as unmanned decoys to draw out and expend both the F/A-18s missiles and the battle groups destroyer’s interceptor missiles. The J-7s are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles and dash towards optimum firing range to lock their targeting systems on the USS George Washington. Before they reach firing range they are jumped by USAF F-22 stealth fighters from Kadena who are providing combat air patrol over the Washington battle group and have remained undetected. All the J-7 drones disappear from the screens of watching US and Chinese radars as the F-22’s shoot them out of the sky. Stunned by the loss of all their decoy fighters, Chinese commanders order a second group of manned high-performance J-11 and J-11B’s that had been loitering just outside the Washington’s radar coverage to the east to attack. The destruction of the first group of Chinese fighters had revealed the location of F-22’s, but the F/A-18s are already in the path of the incoming Chinese fighters before they reach firing range. Although statistically superior air-to-air fighters to the carrier based F/A-18s, they are outnumbered and at a disadvantage because of their heavy weapons load. Four Chinese Flanker variants are quickly lost to airborne missiles fired from the F/A-18s before they can reach firing range on the Washington. With Air Force F-22‘s known to be heading towards them the eight surviving Chinese aircraft break into two groups. The first group drops their payloads into the ocean and engages the F/A-18’s, while the second group launches their anti-ship cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier. The incoming missiles are engaged by the Washington’s AEGIS escorts, most missiles are destroyed or miss their target but one penetrates the defense shield and hits the destroyer USS McCampbell causing about a dozen casualties and some hull damage to the warship. The beleaguered Chinese fighters shoot down two F/A-18’s, but only two of them survive to return to mainland China.
As the George Washington continues on her mission to protect Taiwan another threat to her mission is emerging. An unharmed US satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the Washington carrier group. Five missiles are fired from mobile launchers in different locations along the southern Chinese coast. The missiles; anti-ship variants of the DF-21 medium ranged ballistic missile which were developed to attack moving US aircraft carriers and prevent them from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. To support them China had also launched a series of intelligence gathering satellites to provide targeting information and visual imaging for the missiles, and the extent of their capabilities had been much speculated about outside of China since their introduction.
One missile is spotted by USAF stealth UAV’s loitering off the Chinese coast and operating out of Kadena on high-endurance missions. Radar reflecting drones such as the RQ-170 Sentinel were first used by the USAF on surveillance missions over Afghanistan in 2009. By 2015 the USAF is flying descendants of the Sentinel armed with experimental Network-Centric Airborne Defense Element (NCADE) missiles. UAV’s can launch NCADE missiles at ballistic missiles before they leave the atmosphere after a UAV detects the missiles rocket plumes. When tension between China and Taiwan began to rise, the USAF quietly rushed the experimental weapons from its testing site in Nellis AFB in the Nevada Desert to Kadena. Two UAV’s lingering off the Chinese coast fire at the rising ballistic missile and destroy it over China. Both UAV are quickly intercepted and destroyed by Chinese J-11 fighters over the Taiwan Strait, but the Washington carrier group is now aware of the incoming threat and AEGIS destroyers rapidly shoot SM-3 missiles at the Chinese missiles in space. One missile is knocked out in orbit but three other missiles are re-entering the atmosphere and beginning the ASBM's signature death dive towards the George Washington. The AEGIS destroyers launch another volley of missiles at the incoming ASBM’s, but now use the new model SM-2 Block IV missile. One ASBM’s fails during its final phase and falls harmlessly into the sea miles off target; the other two missiles are clipped and destroyed in a ball of burning fuel and debris by the SM-2.
May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours
China’s attempt to thwart the deployment of the USS George Washington to the Taiwan Strait has failed, and the Washington carrier group is now only 500 nautical miles from Taiwan. Major US and international media networks are starting to report about a major naval engagement in the East China Sea between American and Chinese naval and air forces. F/A-18 fighters from the George Washington are also reportedly flying combat air patrols over Taiwan airspace, and that USAF F-15E and F-22’s have been flying round the clock sorties all day over Taiwan. Neither the Chinese or US governments will give and details of casualties, but independent sources have reported a number of air duels over the Taiwan Strait and pictures of downed PLA fighters have begun to surface on the internet. Taiwanese air and naval forces have taken a hammering, but land forces are reportedly in good order and deployed in their defensive positions to resist invasion. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire, but only Russia demands a withdrawal of US forces from the area and that America refrains from attacking mainland China. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia openly side with America, as do Britain and a number of Western European countries, and many countries offer to send naval forces to aid Taiwan.
May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that patriotic Chinese forces have resisted an invasion by terrorist Kuomintang forces from the rogue province of Taiwan. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage shows repeated footage of PRC fighter aircraft downing Taiwanese fighter aircraft over Taiwan, and of missiles bombarding targets in Taiwan, and other patriotic images of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait. No mention of attacks or fighting with American forces is mentioned and access to broadcasting and internet with the outside world is censored. Recovering US satellite coverage show imagery of major Chinese ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of landing craft along the Chinese coast facing Taiwan.
In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China, and for US forces to be permanently based in Taiwan to deter any future Chinese aggression. Although plans for future strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, it is announced that three additional carrier battle groups have been ordered to join the USS George Washington in the Western Pacific, and that air and land forces will be deployed from the CONUS. Russia announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Western Pacific to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, although rules out the deployment of Russian forces to mainland China. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the opening of peace talks with the Chinese government and the restoration of democratic control of Taiwan to the Taiwanese government. The United States government also announces the possibility of a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese exports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese assets in the United States.
Which senario do you think would work best?
SENARIO 1: CHINESE VICTORY
May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan.
Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defences and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one.
The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island.
May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours
With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding U.S. forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by Patriot PAC-3 batteries from the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. 10 of the Chinese missiles are destroyed but the American batteries are off network and in a state of confusion due to Chinese hacking disruption, and the rest slip through and devastate Kadena.
Some of the missiles contain guided warheads with munitions that crater both runways, the other missiles air-burst over the base and devastate barracks, radar arrays and hangars. Although Kadena is far from destroyed it’s of no use to American forces until its runways can be repaired. The F-15s on their way to Taiwan are ordered to stand down and divert to mainland Japan or Guam which they have the range to reach, but only Kadena is close enough to Taiwan to effectively support combat air patrols. Other USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea, and Hawaii cannot now land at Kadena, including advanced F-22 fighters. For the present aerial tankers are not considered an acceptable solution due to the reluctance of using tankers over open water and the outing of the US communication network in the region. Although US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific, and the Pentagon is considering using B-2 stealth bombers to strike China, for the moment America’s capacity to support Taiwan is reliant on naval power.
May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours
Aboard the USS George Washington approximately 1000 miles from the Taiwan Strait, klaxons start to wail as airborne missiles are detected, and this time headed straight for the carrier at supersonic speed.
The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and with the loss of satellite cover and Kadena for ASW sweeps, all available submarines are directed to the seas south and east of Taiwan to track their location.
Without her usual nuclear attack submarine escort the Washington and its escort of nine AEGIS cruisers and destroyers has headed straight into the path of two waiting Chinese Kilo-class submarines. Russian built and extremely quit, the Kilos lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns, and the Washington’s escorts fail to detect them. Both submarines rise to launch depth and fire two missiles from their torpedo tubes. The Russian made SS-N-27B missiles head straight for the carrier skimming the water at high speed. When they approach within 10 nautical miles of their target a rocket propelled warhead separates from the missile and sprint to Mach 3 just 30 feet above the waves. Crew managing the carrier’s combat systems desperately fire three Mk.29 Sea Sparrow launchers and the six-barreled SRBOC Mk.36 decoy launchers which deploy infrared flares and chaff, while the four 20mm six-barreled Phalanx CIWS churn out a wall of lead at 3,000 rounds per minute. Three missiles are destroyed or deflected away from the carrier, but the fourth missile detonates on its intended target and tears a hole in the side of the Washington. More Chinese missiles rapidly break the surface and dash towards the Washington but are quickly detected by the AEGIS escorts and quickly disposed of. Anti-submarine munitions from the Washington’s escort destroyers litter the ocean and tear one of the Kilo’s apart. The second Chinese submarine escapes but is hunted down by ASW helicopters and destroyed with an hour. However aboard the George Washington over 100 crewmen are dead and injured.
May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours
At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the now-sunk Kilos. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer.
Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighters appear at the edge of the carrier battle groups radar screens. The Washington rapidly launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. With no satellite coverage the AEGIS escorts can only form a defensive ring around the carrier and their interceptor missiles lift off as the J-7s fire a volley of antiship cruise missiles. Unaware that the Chinese J-7s have been retrofitted as unmanned decoys, and not being able to trust their own computer networks due to the hacking attacks on Kadena, the F/A-18s and escort ships must pick targets independently and double up on incoming fighters and missiles which waist their own missiles. All of the J-7’s and most of their cruise missiles are shot down, but one missile gets through the defensive screen and blows another hole in the USS George Washington. By the time the F/A-18 pilots realize that the J-7s are unmanned, another group of Chinese fighters appear from the east at the edge of the Washington’s groups radar coverage. These fighters are manned and high-performance J-11 and J-11B aircraft, and the F/A-18s pilots move their aircraft into intercept position. However the Chinese fighter pilots are only interested in the George Washington, and launch their antiship cruise missiles at the carrier group and quickly disengage and head for China at high speed. Once again the Washington’s escorts engage the incoming missiles and most of the missiles are destroyed or miss their target. But two cruise missiles get through the escort screen, one hitting the destroyer USS John S. McCain and the other penetrating the hull of the George Washington, bringing the great ship to a halt.
Before there is time to regroup and assess the damage done to the aircraft carrier, an unharmed U.S. satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the carrier group. As the five Chinese missiles begin to enter orbit the AEGIS escorts respond by launching multistage SM-3 interceptors that deploy self-guided craft designed to ram ballistic missiles. However only two connect with the ASBM’s in orbit and three Chinese missiles re-enter the atmosphere and perform a swooping, high-g maneuver that allows them to scan the ocean's surface for their moving target. One missile falls harmlessly into the sea after being damaged during re-entry, while another missile misses its target by a few miles due to technical failure. The third missile slams into the George Washington, shattering its superstructure and kills hundreds. The damage doesn't reach the two nuclear reactors, but the carrier’s flight deck has two gaping holes and below in the hangers the carnage and damage has made the ship useless, and it will take years in dry-dock to make it seaworthy again.
May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours
The Washington carrier group must now retreat, although the extensive damage to the carrier has made that a difficult proposition as tugs must be sent to retrieve her. If this was an all-out war China would send another wave of fighters and missiles to quickly finish her off, but it was not China’s ambition to start an extended and costly war with the United States. China’s aim was to deny American access to Taiwan prior to an invasion of the island. Faced with an escalating crisis with China the United States is also facing complete humiliation over Taiwan in less than one day, in addition to the loss of nearly two thousand dead and wounded sailors on board the Washington and its escorts, hundreds more dead and wounded at Kadena, and billions of dollars’ worth of hardware and equipment losses including a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire. Although Britain is sympathetic to America’s position, both Russia and France demand that America withdraws its forces from the area and refrains from attacking mainland China or Chinese forces in Taiwan, a demand that is echoed by most members of the European Union. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are openly siding with America but refuse to be drawn into further conflict with China.
May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that the unification of all Chinese states, provinces and territories that was begun in 1921 and proclaimed by Mao Zedong in 1949, has now been completed. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage of PRC troops landing practically unopposed from military aircraft in Taipei is broadcast to the world. Additional footage of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait, and of the crippled USS George Washington in the East China Sea is also broadcast to the world media. Non-Chinese reporters and sporadic radio broadcasts from Taiwan describe heavy street to street fighting in many cities across the island and naval bombardment of the Taiwanese coast by Chinese warships and fighter-bombers. US satellite imagery confirms major Chinese beachheads and ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of Chinese landing craft along the Taiwanese coast. Although no announcements over the political status of the island of Taiwan have been made, the rest of the world is expecting to hear an official Taiwanese surrender before the end of the day.
In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China as American air and naval forces begin to leave their bases around the world for the Pacific. Although plans for nuclear strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, future bomber and submarine launched cruise missile strikes are not discounted. Russia’s president announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Chinese waters to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, and Russian air force fighters and air defense systems could be deployed to China if the Chinese government requests it. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the temporary withdrawal of US forces to their bases in the Western Pacific. Gingrich also demands the full withdrawal of PRC forces from Taiwan and a free democratic vote for the political status of Taiwan. The United States government also announces a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese imports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese and Taiwanese assets in the United States.
SENARIO 2: UNITED STATES VICTORY
May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan.
Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defenses and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one.
The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island.
May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours
With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding US forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by batteries of the recently introduced Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) and Patriot PAC-3 of the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. Each MEADS can operate autonomously and cover 360 degrees of airspace, and as it doesn’t rely on a single computer network to coordinate its launches it is relatively immune from Chinese hacking. 18 incoming Chinese missiles are destroyed as they enter Okinawan airspace, one missile falls into the sea due to technical failure, and one missile hits one of Kadena’s runways doing some damage which can be repaired by the end of the day. With Kadena fully operational the first wave of F-15E’s that are on their way to Taiwan are joined by a second wave that leaves the air base as the Chinese ballistic missiles are being destroyed over Okinawa. Chinese AWAC’s over the Taiwan Strait detect the approach of 40 USAF F-15E’s rapidly heading towards Taiwan. With news of the failed attack on Kadena reaching them from Beijing, the AWAC’s order PLA fighters over Taiwan airspace to withdraw across the Taiwan Strait and not engage American aircraft. The sight of USAF fighters thundering across the sky rallies the beleaguered Taiwanese government and soldiers for the present.
May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours
As US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific. Kadena air base starts to receive reinforcements from USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea and Hawaii. The Washington battle group is en route to the Taiwan Strait over 1,000 miles to the southwest, but long ranged USAF F-15’s and F-22’s from Kadena are available to guard the Washington as it approaches Taiwan.
The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and the loss of satellite coverage has enhanced the threat from them. However the failed attack on Kadena has allowed for less desperate defensive measures to combat them as navy P-8 Poseidon ASW aircraft can efficiently track and hunt them from Kadena. The Washington carrier group approaching Taiwan is escorted not only by long ranged USAF fighters, but also a state-of-the-art Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine.
The USS North Dakota, a Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine commissioned in 2014, is one of the quietest and most powerful submarines ever operated by the US Navy. Operating in hunter killer mode, the North Dakota utilizes its stealth advantage and superior sensor capabilities to detect any lurking Chinese submarines ahead of the Washington carrier group. The North Dakota has also been aided in its task by the deployment of underwater drones to patrol between Taiwan and Okinawa. These torpedo-size drones use continuous active sonar arrays, which release a steady stream of energy to track hostile submarines in their areas of deployment, and were deployed by escort ships hours before the carrier group reaches hazardous waters. Two waiting Chinese Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, built in Russia and extremely quit, lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns and are armed with deadly Russian made SS-N-27B cruise missile. However their menacing presence is revealed to the North Dakota by the drones. Aware that their presence has been located and knowing they haven’t the speed and technology to match the Virginia Class attack boat they scatter before been sunk. One Kilo succeeds in escaping from the North Dakota and reports the presence of the Washington carrier group in the East China Sea. The other Kilo is blown apart by an Mk.48 heavyweight torpedo.
May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours
At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the Kilo. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a Xianglong high-altitude, long ranged reconnaissance UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer.
Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighter aircraft appears on the battle groups radar screens. The Washington launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. The Chinese have retrofitted the J-7s as unmanned decoys to draw out and expend both the F/A-18s missiles and the battle groups destroyer’s interceptor missiles. The J-7s are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles and dash towards optimum firing range to lock their targeting systems on the USS George Washington. Before they reach firing range they are jumped by USAF F-22 stealth fighters from Kadena who are providing combat air patrol over the Washington battle group and have remained undetected. All the J-7 drones disappear from the screens of watching US and Chinese radars as the F-22’s shoot them out of the sky. Stunned by the loss of all their decoy fighters, Chinese commanders order a second group of manned high-performance J-11 and J-11B’s that had been loitering just outside the Washington’s radar coverage to the east to attack. The destruction of the first group of Chinese fighters had revealed the location of F-22’s, but the F/A-18s are already in the path of the incoming Chinese fighters before they reach firing range. Although statistically superior air-to-air fighters to the carrier based F/A-18s, they are outnumbered and at a disadvantage because of their heavy weapons load. Four Chinese Flanker variants are quickly lost to airborne missiles fired from the F/A-18s before they can reach firing range on the Washington. With Air Force F-22‘s known to be heading towards them the eight surviving Chinese aircraft break into two groups. The first group drops their payloads into the ocean and engages the F/A-18’s, while the second group launches their anti-ship cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier. The incoming missiles are engaged by the Washington’s AEGIS escorts, most missiles are destroyed or miss their target but one penetrates the defense shield and hits the destroyer USS McCampbell causing about a dozen casualties and some hull damage to the warship. The beleaguered Chinese fighters shoot down two F/A-18’s, but only two of them survive to return to mainland China.
As the George Washington continues on her mission to protect Taiwan another threat to her mission is emerging. An unharmed US satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the Washington carrier group. Five missiles are fired from mobile launchers in different locations along the southern Chinese coast. The missiles; anti-ship variants of the DF-21 medium ranged ballistic missile which were developed to attack moving US aircraft carriers and prevent them from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. To support them China had also launched a series of intelligence gathering satellites to provide targeting information and visual imaging for the missiles, and the extent of their capabilities had been much speculated about outside of China since their introduction.
One missile is spotted by USAF stealth UAV’s loitering off the Chinese coast and operating out of Kadena on high-endurance missions. Radar reflecting drones such as the RQ-170 Sentinel were first used by the USAF on surveillance missions over Afghanistan in 2009. By 2015 the USAF is flying descendants of the Sentinel armed with experimental Network-Centric Airborne Defense Element (NCADE) missiles. UAV’s can launch NCADE missiles at ballistic missiles before they leave the atmosphere after a UAV detects the missiles rocket plumes. When tension between China and Taiwan began to rise, the USAF quietly rushed the experimental weapons from its testing site in Nellis AFB in the Nevada Desert to Kadena. Two UAV’s lingering off the Chinese coast fire at the rising ballistic missile and destroy it over China. Both UAV are quickly intercepted and destroyed by Chinese J-11 fighters over the Taiwan Strait, but the Washington carrier group is now aware of the incoming threat and AEGIS destroyers rapidly shoot SM-3 missiles at the Chinese missiles in space. One missile is knocked out in orbit but three other missiles are re-entering the atmosphere and beginning the ASBM's signature death dive towards the George Washington. The AEGIS destroyers launch another volley of missiles at the incoming ASBM’s, but now use the new model SM-2 Block IV missile. One ASBM’s fails during its final phase and falls harmlessly into the sea miles off target; the other two missiles are clipped and destroyed in a ball of burning fuel and debris by the SM-2.
May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours
China’s attempt to thwart the deployment of the USS George Washington to the Taiwan Strait has failed, and the Washington carrier group is now only 500 nautical miles from Taiwan. Major US and international media networks are starting to report about a major naval engagement in the East China Sea between American and Chinese naval and air forces. F/A-18 fighters from the George Washington are also reportedly flying combat air patrols over Taiwan airspace, and that USAF F-15E and F-22’s have been flying round the clock sorties all day over Taiwan. Neither the Chinese or US governments will give and details of casualties, but independent sources have reported a number of air duels over the Taiwan Strait and pictures of downed PLA fighters have begun to surface on the internet. Taiwanese air and naval forces have taken a hammering, but land forces are reportedly in good order and deployed in their defensive positions to resist invasion. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire, but only Russia demands a withdrawal of US forces from the area and that America refrains from attacking mainland China. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia openly side with America, as do Britain and a number of Western European countries, and many countries offer to send naval forces to aid Taiwan.
May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours
The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that patriotic Chinese forces have resisted an invasion by terrorist Kuomintang forces from the rogue province of Taiwan. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage shows repeated footage of PRC fighter aircraft downing Taiwanese fighter aircraft over Taiwan, and of missiles bombarding targets in Taiwan, and other patriotic images of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait. No mention of attacks or fighting with American forces is mentioned and access to broadcasting and internet with the outside world is censored. Recovering US satellite coverage show imagery of major Chinese ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of landing craft along the Chinese coast facing Taiwan.
In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China, and for US forces to be permanently based in Taiwan to deter any future Chinese aggression. Although plans for future strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, it is announced that three additional carrier battle groups have been ordered to join the USS George Washington in the Western Pacific, and that air and land forces will be deployed from the CONUS. Russia announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Western Pacific to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, although rules out the deployment of Russian forces to mainland China. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the opening of peace talks with the Chinese government and the restoration of democratic control of Taiwan to the Taiwanese government. The United States government also announces the possibility of a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese exports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese assets in the United States.