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#1
01-20-2012, 02:45 AM
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Chinese invasion of Taiwan senario
Thought I'd just put up a hypotethical article on how an attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near future might pan out. I took the idea from an article in Popular Mechanics and heavily reworked it.
Which senario do you think would work best? SENARIO 1: CHINESE VICTORY May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan. Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defences and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one. The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island. May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding U.S. forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by Patriot PAC-3 batteries from the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. 10 of the Chinese missiles are destroyed but the American batteries are off network and in a state of confusion due to Chinese hacking disruption, and the rest slip through and devastate Kadena. Some of the missiles contain guided warheads with munitions that crater both runways, the other missiles air-burst over the base and devastate barracks, radar arrays and hangars. Although Kadena is far from destroyed it’s of no use to American forces until its runways can be repaired. The F-15s on their way to Taiwan are ordered to stand down and divert to mainland Japan or Guam which they have the range to reach, but only Kadena is close enough to Taiwan to effectively support combat air patrols. Other USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea, and Hawaii cannot now land at Kadena, including advanced F-22 fighters. For the present aerial tankers are not considered an acceptable solution due to the reluctance of using tankers over open water and the outing of the US communication network in the region. Although US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific, and the Pentagon is considering using B-2 stealth bombers to strike China, for the moment America’s capacity to support Taiwan is reliant on naval power. May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours Aboard the USS George Washington approximately 1000 miles from the Taiwan Strait, klaxons start to wail as airborne missiles are detected, and this time headed straight for the carrier at supersonic speed. The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and with the loss of satellite cover and Kadena for ASW sweeps, all available submarines are directed to the seas south and east of Taiwan to track their location. Without her usual nuclear attack submarine escort the Washington and its escort of nine AEGIS cruisers and destroyers has headed straight into the path of two waiting Chinese Kilo-class submarines. Russian built and extremely quit, the Kilos lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns, and the Washington’s escorts fail to detect them. Both submarines rise to launch depth and fire two missiles from their torpedo tubes. The Russian made SS-N-27B missiles head straight for the carrier skimming the water at high speed. When they approach within 10 nautical miles of their target a rocket propelled warhead separates from the missile and sprint to Mach 3 just 30 feet above the waves. Crew managing the carrier’s combat systems desperately fire three Mk.29 Sea Sparrow launchers and the six-barreled SRBOC Mk.36 decoy launchers which deploy infrared flares and chaff, while the four 20mm six-barreled Phalanx CIWS churn out a wall of lead at 3,000 rounds per minute. Three missiles are destroyed or deflected away from the carrier, but the fourth missile detonates on its intended target and tears a hole in the side of the Washington. More Chinese missiles rapidly break the surface and dash towards the Washington but are quickly detected by the AEGIS escorts and quickly disposed of. Anti-submarine munitions from the Washington’s escort destroyers litter the ocean and tear one of the Kilo’s apart. The second Chinese submarine escapes but is hunted down by ASW helicopters and destroyed with an hour. However aboard the George Washington over 100 crewmen are dead and injured. May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the now-sunk Kilos. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer. Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighters appear at the edge of the carrier battle groups radar screens. The Washington rapidly launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. With no satellite coverage the AEGIS escorts can only form a defensive ring around the carrier and their interceptor missiles lift off as the J-7s fire a volley of antiship cruise missiles. Unaware that the Chinese J-7s have been retrofitted as unmanned decoys, and not being able to trust their own computer networks due to the hacking attacks on Kadena, the F/A-18s and escort ships must pick targets independently and double up on incoming fighters and missiles which waist their own missiles. All of the J-7’s and most of their cruise missiles are shot down, but one missile gets through the defensive screen and blows another hole in the USS George Washington. By the time the F/A-18 pilots realize that the J-7s are unmanned, another group of Chinese fighters appear from the east at the edge of the Washington’s groups radar coverage. These fighters are manned and high-performance J-11 and J-11B aircraft, and the F/A-18s pilots move their aircraft into intercept position. However the Chinese fighter pilots are only interested in the George Washington, and launch their antiship cruise missiles at the carrier group and quickly disengage and head for China at high speed. Once again the Washington’s escorts engage the incoming missiles and most of the missiles are destroyed or miss their target. But two cruise missiles get through the escort screen, one hitting the destroyer USS John S. McCain and the other penetrating the hull of the George Washington, bringing the great ship to a halt. Before there is time to regroup and assess the damage done to the aircraft carrier, an unharmed U.S. satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the carrier group. As the five Chinese missiles begin to enter orbit the AEGIS escorts respond by launching multistage SM-3 interceptors that deploy self-guided craft designed to ram ballistic missiles. However only two connect with the ASBM’s in orbit and three Chinese missiles re-enter the atmosphere and perform a swooping, high-g maneuver that allows them to scan the ocean's surface for their moving target. One missile falls harmlessly into the sea after being damaged during re-entry, while another missile misses its target by a few miles due to technical failure. The third missile slams into the George Washington, shattering its superstructure and kills hundreds. The damage doesn't reach the two nuclear reactors, but the carrier’s flight deck has two gaping holes and below in the hangers the carnage and damage has made the ship useless, and it will take years in dry-dock to make it seaworthy again. May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours The Washington carrier group must now retreat, although the extensive damage to the carrier has made that a difficult proposition as tugs must be sent to retrieve her. If this was an all-out war China would send another wave of fighters and missiles to quickly finish her off, but it was not China’s ambition to start an extended and costly war with the United States. China’s aim was to deny American access to Taiwan prior to an invasion of the island. Faced with an escalating crisis with China the United States is also facing complete humiliation over Taiwan in less than one day, in addition to the loss of nearly two thousand dead and wounded sailors on board the Washington and its escorts, hundreds more dead and wounded at Kadena, and billions of dollars’ worth of hardware and equipment losses including a nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire. Although Britain is sympathetic to America’s position, both Russia and France demand that America withdraws its forces from the area and refrains from attacking mainland China or Chinese forces in Taiwan, a demand that is echoed by most members of the European Union. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia are openly siding with America but refuse to be drawn into further conflict with China. May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that the unification of all Chinese states, provinces and territories that was begun in 1921 and proclaimed by Mao Zedong in 1949, has now been completed. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage of PRC troops landing practically unopposed from military aircraft in Taipei is broadcast to the world. Additional footage of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait, and of the crippled USS George Washington in the East China Sea is also broadcast to the world media. Non-Chinese reporters and sporadic radio broadcasts from Taiwan describe heavy street to street fighting in many cities across the island and naval bombardment of the Taiwanese coast by Chinese warships and fighter-bombers. US satellite imagery confirms major Chinese beachheads and ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of Chinese landing craft along the Taiwanese coast. Although no announcements over the political status of the island of Taiwan have been made, the rest of the world is expecting to hear an official Taiwanese surrender before the end of the day. In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China as American air and naval forces begin to leave their bases around the world for the Pacific. Although plans for nuclear strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, future bomber and submarine launched cruise missile strikes are not discounted. Russia’s president announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Chinese waters to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, and Russian air force fighters and air defense systems could be deployed to China if the Chinese government requests it. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the temporary withdrawal of US forces to their bases in the Western Pacific. Gingrich also demands the full withdrawal of PRC forces from Taiwan and a free democratic vote for the political status of Taiwan. The United States government also announces a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese imports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese and Taiwanese assets in the United States. SENARIO 2: UNITED STATES VICTORY May 9, 2015 - 0400 Hours The war for Taiwan starts in the early morning. 1,200 cruise and ballistic missiles rise from PLA heavy vehicles on the Chinese mainland and head towards the island of Taiwan. Taiwan's air defense network; predominantly American I-Hawk and early model Patriot interceptor missiles destroy dozens of incoming warheads, but they quickly overwhelm Taiwanese air defenses and blast the island's military bases, ports and airports. With runways cratered much of Taiwan’s air force is grounded or heavily pressed by Chinese fighters who are now ranging over Taiwan at will. The Taiwan navy has also been badly hit with all of its bases coming under missile attack and many of its ships either destroyed or damaged, including some by air or submarine attack. From an air base in mainland China a squadron of J-20 stealth fighters prepping for combat and taking off is filmed and broadcast on Chinese state television, and confirmed to US military commanders in Washington by imagery from surveillance satellites. An hour after the first missile strikes on the island the Taiwanese army has begun to mobilize and defensive positions have been fully manned on the beaches facing China just 100 miles to the west. Both Beijing and Washington know that if the PLA can maintain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait it will be able to launch a rapid invasion of the island. Taiwanese forces know the attack on their country has now become more than just a war between China and Taiwan, but is now a struggle for dominance in the Western Pacific between the old Western superpower and the new Asian one. The nearest American aircraft carrier to Taiwan is the USS George Washington, a Nimitz Class nuclear powered vessel based in the Japanese port of Yokosuka on Tokyo Bay. The Washington and her battle group had put to sea shortly after the first missiles strikes on Taiwan were reported, and US President Gingrich orders the Washington battle group to the Taiwan Strait. However Washington needs at least two days to reach the strait over 1,300 miles to the southwest, and the closest other carrier groups is at Pearl Harbor over a week away, with other carriers at California and the Indian Ocean. Until Washington arrives in the Taiwanese Strait its up the USAF at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, 400 miles northeast of Taiwan, to defend the island. May 9, 2015 - 0515 Hours With news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan reaching them, pilots from the USAF 18th Wing at Kadena are directed to take off in their F-15E fighters to begin CAP operations over Taiwan. About half of the USAF F-15’s are airborne when Kadena comes under multiple Chinese attacks. Firstly, hackers operating from mainland China swarm the base's computer networks, tying up communications and cluttering the data screens of computers and radars. Next American early warning satellites detect the infrared bloom of 25 ballistic missiles launched from mainland China. Five of the missiles detonate in orbit, shredding part of America’s communication and imaging satellite network over the Western Pacific, partially blinding US forces. The other 20 missiles re-enter the atmosphere over Okinawa and are engaged by batteries of the recently introduced Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) and Patriot PAC-3 of the US Army’s 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment at Kadena. Each MEADS can operate autonomously and cover 360 degrees of airspace, and as it doesn’t rely on a single computer network to coordinate its launches it is relatively immune from Chinese hacking. 18 incoming Chinese missiles are destroyed as they enter Okinawan airspace, one missile falls into the sea due to technical failure, and one missile hits one of Kadena’s runways doing some damage which can be repaired by the end of the day. With Kadena fully operational the first wave of F-15E’s that are on their way to Taiwan are joined by a second wave that leaves the air base as the Chinese ballistic missiles are being destroyed over Okinawa. Chinese AWAC’s over the Taiwan Strait detect the approach of 40 USAF F-15E’s rapidly heading towards Taiwan. With news of the failed attack on Kadena reaching them from Beijing, the AWAC’s order PLA fighters over Taiwan airspace to withdraw across the Taiwan Strait and not engage American aircraft. The sight of USAF fighters thundering across the sky rallies the beleaguered Taiwanese government and soldiers for the present. May 9, 2015 - 1200 Hours As US Forces have gone on full alert worldwide and air and naval assets from CONUS and the Middle East are preparing for deployment to the Pacific. Kadena air base starts to receive reinforcements from USAF and Marine Corps assets based in Japan, South Korea and Hawaii. The Washington battle group is en route to the Taiwan Strait over 1,000 miles to the southwest, but long ranged USAF F-15’s and F-22’s from Kadena are available to guard the Washington as it approaches Taiwan. The day before the attack on Taiwan U.S. satellites and navy submarines in the western Pacific observed significant PLA submarine activity in the South China Sea and in waters a few hundred miles to the east of Taiwan. At least a dozen Chinese submarines were tracked before the missile attack on Kadena and the loss of satellite coverage has enhanced the threat from them. However the failed attack on Kadena has allowed for less desperate defensive measures to combat them as navy P-8 Poseidon ASW aircraft can efficiently track and hunt them from Kadena. The Washington carrier group approaching Taiwan is escorted not only by long ranged USAF fighters, but also a state-of-the-art Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine. The USS North Dakota, a Virginia Class nuclear attack submarine commissioned in 2014, is one of the quietest and most powerful submarines ever operated by the US Navy. Operating in hunter killer mode, the North Dakota utilizes its stealth advantage and superior sensor capabilities to detect any lurking Chinese submarines ahead of the Washington carrier group. The North Dakota has also been aided in its task by the deployment of underwater drones to patrol between Taiwan and Okinawa. These torpedo-size drones use continuous active sonar arrays, which release a steady stream of energy to track hostile submarines in their areas of deployment, and were deployed by escort ships hours before the carrier group reaches hazardous waters. Two waiting Chinese Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, built in Russia and extremely quit, lurk near rises in the sea floor of the East China Sea that clutter sonar returns and are armed with deadly Russian made SS-N-27B cruise missile. However their menacing presence is revealed to the North Dakota by the drones. Aware that their presence has been located and knowing they haven’t the speed and technology to match the Virginia Class attack boat they scatter before been sunk. One Kilo succeeds in escaping from the North Dakota and reports the presence of the Washington carrier group in the East China Sea. The other Kilo is blown apart by an Mk.48 heavyweight torpedo. May 9, 2015 - 1921 Hours At a naval installation on the southeast coast of China an over-the-horizon radar array has picked up the Washington’s position based on coordinates supplied by the Kilo. The array seeks the carrier by banking radio waves off the atmosphere to peer beyond the earth's curvature. The Chinese deploy a Xianglong high-altitude, long ranged reconnaissance UAV to confirm the radar fix which locates the Washington before being shot down by an anti-air missile from a US Navy destroyer. Ten minutes after confirming the Washington’s location a formation of Chinese fighter aircraft appears on the battle groups radar screens. The Washington launches its F/A-18s to meet the incoming aircraft, which appear to be two dozen outdated J-7 fighters. The Chinese have retrofitted the J-7s as unmanned decoys to draw out and expend both the F/A-18s missiles and the battle groups destroyer’s interceptor missiles. The J-7s are armed with anti-ship cruise missiles and dash towards optimum firing range to lock their targeting systems on the USS George Washington. Before they reach firing range they are jumped by USAF F-22 stealth fighters from Kadena who are providing combat air patrol over the Washington battle group and have remained undetected. All the J-7 drones disappear from the screens of watching US and Chinese radars as the F-22’s shoot them out of the sky. Stunned by the loss of all their decoy fighters, Chinese commanders order a second group of manned high-performance J-11 and J-11B’s that had been loitering just outside the Washington’s radar coverage to the east to attack. The destruction of the first group of Chinese fighters had revealed the location of F-22’s, but the F/A-18s are already in the path of the incoming Chinese fighters before they reach firing range. Although statistically superior air-to-air fighters to the carrier based F/A-18s, they are outnumbered and at a disadvantage because of their heavy weapons load. Four Chinese Flanker variants are quickly lost to airborne missiles fired from the F/A-18s before they can reach firing range on the Washington. With Air Force F-22‘s known to be heading towards them the eight surviving Chinese aircraft break into two groups. The first group drops their payloads into the ocean and engages the F/A-18’s, while the second group launches their anti-ship cruise missiles at the aircraft carrier. The incoming missiles are engaged by the Washington’s AEGIS escorts, most missiles are destroyed or miss their target but one penetrates the defense shield and hits the destroyer USS McCampbell causing about a dozen casualties and some hull damage to the warship. The beleaguered Chinese fighters shoot down two F/A-18’s, but only two of them survive to return to mainland China. As the George Washington continues on her mission to protect Taiwan another threat to her mission is emerging. An unharmed US satellite has detected another volley of ballistic missiles fired from mainland China. These missiles are not targeted at Taiwan or Okinawa, but they are identified as ASBMs tracking toward the Washington carrier group. Five missiles are fired from mobile launchers in different locations along the southern Chinese coast. The missiles; anti-ship variants of the DF-21 medium ranged ballistic missile which were developed to attack moving US aircraft carriers and prevent them from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. To support them China had also launched a series of intelligence gathering satellites to provide targeting information and visual imaging for the missiles, and the extent of their capabilities had been much speculated about outside of China since their introduction. One missile is spotted by USAF stealth UAV’s loitering off the Chinese coast and operating out of Kadena on high-endurance missions. Radar reflecting drones such as the RQ-170 Sentinel were first used by the USAF on surveillance missions over Afghanistan in 2009. By 2015 the USAF is flying descendants of the Sentinel armed with experimental Network-Centric Airborne Defense Element (NCADE) missiles. UAV’s can launch NCADE missiles at ballistic missiles before they leave the atmosphere after a UAV detects the missiles rocket plumes. When tension between China and Taiwan began to rise, the USAF quietly rushed the experimental weapons from its testing site in Nellis AFB in the Nevada Desert to Kadena. Two UAV’s lingering off the Chinese coast fire at the rising ballistic missile and destroy it over China. Both UAV are quickly intercepted and destroyed by Chinese J-11 fighters over the Taiwan Strait, but the Washington carrier group is now aware of the incoming threat and AEGIS destroyers rapidly shoot SM-3 missiles at the Chinese missiles in space. One missile is knocked out in orbit but three other missiles are re-entering the atmosphere and beginning the ASBM's signature death dive towards the George Washington. The AEGIS destroyers launch another volley of missiles at the incoming ASBM’s, but now use the new model SM-2 Block IV missile. One ASBM’s fails during its final phase and falls harmlessly into the sea miles off target; the other two missiles are clipped and destroyed in a ball of burning fuel and debris by the SM-2. May 9, 2015 - 2000 Hours China’s attempt to thwart the deployment of the USS George Washington to the Taiwan Strait has failed, and the Washington carrier group is now only 500 nautical miles from Taiwan. Major US and international media networks are starting to report about a major naval engagement in the East China Sea between American and Chinese naval and air forces. F/A-18 fighters from the George Washington are also reportedly flying combat air patrols over Taiwan airspace, and that USAF F-15E and F-22’s have been flying round the clock sorties all day over Taiwan. Neither the Chinese or US governments will give and details of casualties, but independent sources have reported a number of air duels over the Taiwan Strait and pictures of downed PLA fighters have begun to surface on the internet. Taiwanese air and naval forces have taken a hammering, but land forces are reportedly in good order and deployed in their defensive positions to resist invasion. Internationally the United Nations and the three other permanent members of the UN Security Council demand a cease fire, but only Russia demands a withdrawal of US forces from the area and that America refrains from attacking mainland China. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia openly side with America, as do Britain and a number of Western European countries, and many countries offer to send naval forces to aid Taiwan. May 10, 2015 - 0400 Hours The population of China awakes to an address by the President of the People’s Republic of China who announces that patriotic Chinese forces have resisted an invasion by terrorist Kuomintang forces from the rogue province of Taiwan. As the morning progresses Chinese TV footage shows repeated footage of PRC fighter aircraft downing Taiwanese fighter aircraft over Taiwan, and of missiles bombarding targets in Taiwan, and other patriotic images of the aircraft carrier Shi Lang on maneuvers with other Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait. No mention of attacks or fighting with American forces is mentioned and access to broadcasting and internet with the outside world is censored. Recovering US satellite coverage show imagery of major Chinese ship movement in the Taiwan Strait, and the presence of hundreds of landing craft along the Chinese coast facing Taiwan. In America outrage over the Chinese attacks on US Forces hasten calls for an outright attack on China, and for US forces to be permanently based in Taiwan to deter any future Chinese aggression. Although plans for future strikes on mainland China are publically dismissed by President Gingrich, it is announced that three additional carrier battle groups have been ordered to join the USS George Washington in the Western Pacific, and that air and land forces will be deployed from the CONUS. Russia announces that nuclear attack submarines from its Pacific Fleet will be deployed to Western Pacific to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis, although rules out the deployment of Russian forces to mainland China. Later in the morning President Gingrich addresses the nation from the White House, announcing the opening of peace talks with the Chinese government and the restoration of democratic control of Taiwan to the Taiwanese government. The United States government also announces the possibility of a series of economic sanctions against China, including an embargo of Chinese exports and services to the United States, and the seizure of Chinese assets in the United States. 
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#2
01-20-2012, 01:57 PM
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Both are good scenarios (excllent writes by the way!).
As to the most likely, I believe that the first one may be the more realistic, especially in light of a certain administration's decision to gut our current military. Having said that.... It's very unlikely that the PRC will invade Taiwan any time soon. Their military, while undergoing an impressive buildup, is not yet in position to escalate the war by attacking Japan and the US, at least not without a lot of political maneuvering prior to launching the attack. Just a few thoughts while I'm listening to the latest politically-correct behavior that will be expected from government employees in the next year.... Please....just shoot me! 
__________________
The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#3
01-20-2012, 03:26 PM
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The author who thinks the US would back down for a peaceful resolution after suffering the kind of defeat outlined in Scenario One has his finger someplace else besides the pulse of modern America. The more humiliating the defeat, the less likely the American public is to let the matter go to a negotiated settlement with the enemy having the upper hand. President Gingrich is a hawk of the old school.
Depending on one’s point of view, there are some favorable outcomes here. The USAF would get a good look at the capabilities of the B-2 operating under the conditions for which it was designed. The USN would have the opportunity to test its ability to maintain a blockade against a nation the size and power of China. Ultimately, though, the USN could prevent 95% of maritime traffic in and out of China by sitting beyond the continental shelf. These things might not bring China to her knees by themselves, but they’d sure cause some problems. At this point, the holding of US debt by China becomes a non-issue. The US simply reneges on the debt and explains to the rest of the debt holders that this is what China gets for going to war with the US. There might be some ripples in the value of US debt as a result, but no one could possibly be surprised. As an added bonus, the US would find herself free of a considerable portion of her debt burden. While the USN throttles China’s foreign exchange and the USAF whittles away at strategic targets, forces must be assembled to recapture Taiwan. The first step, of course, would be to interdict all traffic between the PRC and Taiwan. The B-2s probably would be the first players here, using PGM to hit the appropriate facilities along the Chinese coast until the job could be handed off to someone else. Interdicting air traffic would be tougher, and so the PRC might be able to move light troops to Taiwan in some numbers for a while. The air war would be fascinating. At its climax, the air war probably would encompass the entire coast of China, the hinterland, the ROK, Taiwan, and Japan. Given the numbers situation at the beginning and the geography, we’d find out what our advantages in training and technology are worth. Sooner or later, though, the US and allies would establish air superiority over Taiwan and the Strait. At this point, Chinese strength on the ground would have reached its zenith. The next big question would be the landings. There are so many variables here that I can’t do much to quantify them. How many Chinese troops are there on Taiwan? How many tanks? How many guns? Which units are involved? Realistically, how many Marines can the US put ashore in the first wave? Are we going to try putting in airborne units? What is the operational value of the Taiwanese resistance? I could go on and on? Here are a couple more issues to be considered: what is US public opinion doing during this process? What is the cost of the war? What is the correlation between public opinion and cost? What do the allies think? What is the diversion of US forces from other missions? Are the allies willing to pick up the slack elsewhere? What is Iran doing during this time? What are the North Koreans doing during this time? I won’t insult the intelligence of the members of this forum by suggesting that President Gingrich will give a damn about global public opinion. Here’s the bottom line: any Chinese effort at a knockout blow would backfire for them just as it did for Japan. Americans hate being dry gulched, and we hate being embarrassed. Put the two together, and you’ve got a commitment to war not seen since 1941.
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“We’re not innovating. We’re selectively imitating.” June Bernstein, Acting President of the University of Arizona in Tucson, November 15, 1998.
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#4
01-20-2012, 04:39 PM
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The second scenario is a clear-cut case of look-at-my-big-technological-penis-beating-down-them-Chinese. Ugh. Also, are we really to believe that the Chinese, having committed to combat with the US by launching missile attacks on a US base in Japan will shy away from air-to-air combat over Taiwan once US F-15s arrive? Then they will turn around and engage in air-to-air combat to attack a US carrier group? Come on, now.
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“We’re not innovating. We’re selectively imitating.” June Bernstein, Acting President of the University of Arizona in Tucson, November 15, 1998.
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#5
01-20-2012, 04:50 PM
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How about scenario 3?
The Chinese Premier wakes up in a cold sweat realizing he just had a pair of nightmares about attacking his nation's chief source of technological innovation and pissing off their largest customer. Laughing it off he gets up, settles his stomach with a sip of sprite, then drifts back to sleep under his Cannon cotton sheets, listening to some Bach on his ipod. 
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#6
01-20-2012, 07:50 PM
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Please, not President Gingrich...<shudder>
__________________
I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com
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#7
01-21-2012, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
But I'm also reminded of certain events that occured in NYC in the aftermath of 9-11. Interviews with people on the street about what the US reaction against terrorists should be, and seeing person after person, stating that if we had kept our nose out of the Middle East, this would never have happened, filmed with the rescue operations at the twin towers in the background. When troops were sent into Afghanistan in the initial moves against the Taliban, protestors picketed the White House. When the administration made the decision to invade Iraq based on (at the time) intelligence that stated that Saddam had assisted Bin Laden and was also trying to build WMD....remember the protests? Pearl Harbor focused America like no other event in our nation's history. But is that same ability to unite still present in our country today? In the wake of 9-11, I doubt that. I'm afraid that if the Chinese made the decision to invade Taiwan and undertook maneuvers to negate the US presence in the area, that the will to go toe-to-toe with them may not be present.
__________________
The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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#8
01-21-2012, 04:46 PM
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A more plausible scenario would incorporate an EMP strike to take out radars, but that would destroy the value of Taiwan to China other than as land to grab. What would then be the point of invading "scorched earth"? The Chinese aren't stupid, and they don't do things just for political reasons. There has to be a gain somewhere. They wouldn't start a war with the U.S. that would instantly lose them the economic value of their objective. Nevermind the fact that the U.S. would do to China what we did to Japan in WW2. Or at least try to.
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If you find yourself in a fair fight you didn't plan your mission properly! Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't.
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#9
01-22-2012, 10:35 PM
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I did base these scenarios one an article I read but heavily expanded it, but some of the worst parts are mine so I'll take that on the chin. But a few things. Firstly China would be seriously mad to try and invade Taiwan and also try and hit America with a sucker punch as well and expect them to do nothing about it. If America was to apply its true strategic power against the Chinese they just couldn't cope with it. Even on their own patch in the Far East the Chinese would be very hard pressed to handle the blunt force of American military power today and maybe for another quarter of a century. Although at the rate their acquiring and copying other countries technology that position may change. Secondly the Chinese leadership/military is a bit irrational when it comes to Taiwan. Other countries can be the same over territories that they think belongs to them or is in there sphere of influence; Argentina and the Falklands, Iraq and Kuwait etc. Democracy, human rights and international opinions has never been too high on the Chinese government’s priorities, although the amount of money they make from America would make a difference. Thirdly the technology mentioned in the scenarios is either available or under development. The US defense budget is been trimmed, and manpower and equipment levels are been cut, but not R&D.
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#10
01-22-2012, 10:42 PM
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#11
01-22-2012, 11:06 PM
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My guess is that if China was to invade Taiwan and wanted to knock the US out of the equation, they'd be best served by calling in all the US debts well beforehand. Drive the US economy so far below it's knees they'd have to gut virtually every part of national spending, mothball ships, and downsize the military in general. Then, after say 5 years of downsizing when the US can barely even patrol their own beaches...
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#12
01-25-2012, 04:07 PM
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__________________
“We’re not innovating. We’re selectively imitating.” June Bernstein, Acting President of the University of Arizona in Tucson, November 15, 1998.
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#13
01-25-2012, 07:16 PM
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Which brings us back again that it's in all parties best interests to maintain the status quo until something BIG happens to change the balance.
It's therefore reasonable to assume Taiwan will remain separate for at least the next few decades.
__________________
If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives. Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect" Mors ante pudorem
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#14
01-25-2012, 07:26 PM
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Suffice to say, the coming shift to emphasis on more operations in Asia and the Pacific seems to already acknowledge this, as well as the possibility that the status quo may or may not quite hold up after the next few decades.
__________________
"The use of force is always an answer to problems. Whether or not it's a satisfactory answer depends on a number of things, not least the personality of the person making the determination. Force isn't an attractive answer, though. I would not be true to myself or to the people I served with in 1970 if I did not make that realization clear." — David Drake
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#15
01-25-2012, 07:54 PM
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__________________
************************************* Each day I encounter stupid people I keep wondering... is today when I get my first assault charge??
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#16
01-25-2012, 10:54 PM
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I'm guided by the beauty of our weapons...First We Take Manhattan, Jennifer Warnes Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com
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#17
01-26-2012, 08:12 AM
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SkyMaster is another good one featuring the Chinese navy.
__________________
************************************* Each day I encounter stupid people I keep wondering... is today when I get my first assault charge??
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#18
01-27-2012, 02:43 PM
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I'll admit this is a subject that I'm not overly familiar with, but I do have a couple of questions. I did live with a Taiwanese guy for a semester though (much hilarity found when I was told he did his service in the Coastguard and never learned how to swim:L).
Taiwan isn't recognized by the UN is it? I know in Ireland they have a consulate but my housemate said it took him a lot of effort to get to live here for a year. Just from a quick hop on wiki and reading this thread though, the USA are firm supporters like they are with Japan, South Korea and other countries in that area? Secondly, isn't there a movement in Taiwan that wants to reconcile itself with China? I know the native Formosans don't like the "refugees" (for want of a better word), the ones who came over in 1949. Would that factor in?
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#19
01-27-2012, 04:11 PM
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Not the Coast Guard bit, and I do have a funny story to tell as well about Taiwanese conscription. One of the first jobs I had was working for a Taiwanese company. Taiwan has universal conscription (ie the draft). Anyways, before working at this company, one of my coworkers was drafted into the Taiwanese army and posted to one of the outlying islands. Apparently the Taiwanese government would bring over hookers to keep the men happy. I'll just say that when it was my coworker's turn, the hooker he chose was so enthralled by his good looks and skills that she was reading the newspaper while he was doing the deed. Going back to the more important points. Taiwan is not an official member of the UN. It has observer status. They had official membership until 1971 when the UN recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China. As far as a "movement", I would say that it is bigger than a movement for reconciliation. There are effectively two political groups in Taiwan, one group known as "Pan Green" wants Taiwan to become an independant. The other group, known and "Pan Blue" wants better ties and eventual reunification with the mainland. Each of these two groups is a coalition of like minded political parties, the unfying factor being pro-independance or pro-unification. Think of it as similar to the United States, two large political parties, Republican and Democratic, but each party has various wings and factions, libertarian, tea party, blue dog, "progressive", etc. Now, the largest and most powerful faction of the "Pan-Green" group is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). A DPP representative held the Presidency from 2000-2008 and held a majority in the Legislative Yuan (congress) in 2001. The largest and most powerful faction of "Pan-Blue" is the Kuomintang or Nationalist party (KMT). The KMT is the former government of China, our WWII ally and the loser of the Chinese Civil War. The KMT retreated to Taiwan after the Civil War and ruled it as a near dictatorship from 1949 until the mid 80's. I wouldn't say that native Taiwanese hate Taiwanese who came over in 1949 and after, but there have been incidents that don't foster a love between the two. The KMT under Chiang Kai Shek was very authortarian and corrupt. There was also an incident in 1947 known as the 228 incident that occurred after WWII when the KMT established control over Taiwan (Taiwan was a Japanese colony from 1895 to 1945) 228 incident occurred when native Taiwanese rioted against the KMT, there were deaths and a decree of martial law that lasted until 1987. Most of the power and money remains in the hands of KMT supporters. Except for the 2000-2008 period, the KMT has pretty much controlled the presidency and the Legislative Yuan, and their stated goal is the reconcilation with the mainland. The DPP President Chen Shui Ban made some noise about independence, but never did, who knows if the United States made some back channel moves to squash that talk. For a long time, the KMT thought that they would triumphantly march back to Beijing and take back what they lost, but that has faded away as the older generals and businessmen pass on. The younger generation is much more realistic. Incidentally, Taiwan just concluded their most recent election. Pan Green, running on a human rights, social entitlement, tax the rich and handouts to the poor platform had an early lead in the polls. But Pan Blue won both the Presidency (re-elected actually) and a majority in the Legislative Yuan. Despite all the talk and threats, there have been gradual easing of trade barriers between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China. Cross strait trade has existed since the '80's. There are now direct flights, shipping and mail between the mainland and Taiwan. Ironically, it was the PRC that proposed direct links back in the '70's only to be shot down by the ROC. Anyways, I could go on, but I don't want to bore everyone. BTW, there is a small aborigine population on Taiwan. When you say native Formosan, thats what I originally thought. The vast majority of the population is ethnically Han Chinese. Here's an interesting tid bit, Chiang Kai Shek's son served for a brief time in the WWII Whermacht.
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#20
01-29-2012, 02:00 AM
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For Taiwans status with the UN see United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 The Kuomintang would probably love to reconcile itself with China as the legitimate government according to themselves.
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