Quote:
Originally Posted by Webstral
As Leg points out, the results of the latest election are a temporary phenomenon. Asking the Soviets to base their geopolitical decisions with repercussions extending over a generation or more on the outcome of the latest election in a Western country is asking them to go to Vegas with the rent money.
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What they did in no less than 8 occasions on the outcome of WW2 and with great success : Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Czecoslovakia, Finland, Hungary, Poland,and Roumania. Sometimes, the red army was a great help, at other times it didn't have to intervene. Without the marshall plan they would have been successfull on the eight bet instead of the six they got.
I agree that the situation isn't the same but leg's point about election is not convincing for France. With the war, elections in France might be suspended (as it was in 1940) or their rules might be deeply modified (as in 1958). Moreover, the parties were ruling for 7 years and with T2K they had just come to power (not my choice, blame the authors).
US has a constitution based on that of 1776, you had the Federalist and the Anti-federalist and one civil war. In the meantime, we have had the declaration of 1789, 5 constitutions and no less than 16 different regimes (Louis XVI absolute monarchy, Louis XVI Constitutional monarchy, First Republic, Convention, Terror, Directoire, Consulat, First Empire, Restoration, July Monarchy, Second Republic, Second Empire, Third Republic, Regime de Vichy, Fourth Republic, Fifth Republic). Out of these eleven were dictatorial/authocratic (even they don't last as much as the democratic ones), 3 were bloody. In addition, we have faced five revolutions and one major uprising (1968). The army turned on the government during the Algiers events and I'm not even talking of the Paris commune in 1871. In 1979, Georges Marchais (Then head of the PCF) publicly declared support to the soviet intervention in Afghanistan. When he did that,the man was not in Paris but in Moscow (They could have gone for the bet, it would have depended on the political situation in France).
Still, I agree with you and Leg, I'm just saying that there is another option and as the game doesn't cover this, you have some freedom while filling in the blanks.
Four political options for France:
- A right dominated government with a strong nationalist component: France declares neutrality and USSR thinks of it as a target.
- A right dominated government (as in 1995) and France joins with NATO.
- A left dominated government with a weak PCF: USSR might turn on it and France might declare neutrality but it ultimately joins NATO (quite rapidly).
- A left dominated government with a stronger/revived PCF: France declares neutrality and is a threat to NATO. US/NATO bombs it.
While neutral. If France is hit by NATO, it might respond lightly. If it is hit by the Soviets, all our missiles would have been flying after the first hit.