Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanjuro
Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland?"
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Not the only one.
Now, you can take historical comparisons only so far, but this is what I thought once all this got kicked off.
A: Country Elects a Charismatic Leader, whose biggest point is a cult of personality that emphasises national pride and demonises anyone not one of them.
B: A economic recovery is started, based of either manufacturing or resources.
C: They back a section of another country that they claim, accurately or not, was part of them, and they move in on a pretext to secure that claim. The world does nothing.
D: In order to prove that they are the good guys, they host a really nice Olympics, putting on quite the show of openness and all that goes with the effort to sell themselves.
E: Meanwhile, in the Far East, a nation who believes they are being slighted and not given their just dues as a 'Great Power' props up a nasty neighbouring government, and needing a vast increase in natural resources, and knowing they can't take it from the north, starts looking south at various islands and nations as 'rightfully' theirs, regardless of what the locals say of the idea.
F: Once the Olympics are done, and reacting to the 'Locally Formed Uprising' and the 'Spontaneous Demands' of an ethnic minority in a neighbouring country, the stage a pretext to bite off a large chunk of it, all in the name of peace and fulfilling the wishes of the local oppressed majority of the region, and make it part of the greater nation.
G: World goes ape: they all demand that the country in question fly right, and get it together. They have a big meetings, and they all agree 'Something Should Be Done' if it happens again. Meanwhile, the county of evil-doers start making noises saying the rest of said country is being mean to a ethnic brothers and sisters, and we might have to do something about this, but don't worry, all those troops we have on the border, they are just there for some sunshine. Oh? And Country C? Don't get ideas about treating our co-ethnic people bad, I know you are allied with some pretty strong countries, but you know they don't really have your back, after all, what have they done for their other friends?
Now again, can only comparisons so far, but as this one goes, pretty darn scary. For in this case, we have the following:
A: Germany elected everyones favourite Bavarian Corporal, and Russia Elected Putin.
B: German Manufacturing took off, and Russia started selling gas and oil hand over fist.
C: Ruhr/Rhine from France, and Georgia lost a few provinces. Granted, at least Germany was in the right here.
D: Berlin 36, Sochi 14
E: Japan/Manchuria late 30's, China/North Korea Now.
F: Sudetenland, and now the Crimea.
G: Right now he is making serious noise about the rest of the Ukraine, at least the eastern parts, and western leadership - with two loud exceptions - are looking for a piece of paper to wave. The two exceptions? Poland and Germany: they both know how this movie worked out the last time, and don't care to watch the sequel. Also, Putin has been making noises about the Baltics, and here, they have allies: in fact, they are NATO members. So, to carry the comparison, they are taking the role of Poland in 39.
So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.
But thats my two cents.
