Ukraine Fun & Games

[Sanjuro]

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland?"

[Panther Al]

Originally Posted by Sanjuro

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland?"

Not the only one.

Now, you can take historical comparisons only so far, but this is what I thought once all this got kicked off.

A: Country Elects a Charismatic Leader, whose biggest point is a cult of personality that emphasises national pride and demonises anyone not one of them.

B: A economic recovery is started, based of either manufacturing or resources.

C: They back a section of another country that they claim, accurately or not, was part of them, and they move in on a pretext to secure that claim. The world does nothing.

D: In order to prove that they are the good guys, they host a really nice Olympics, putting on quite the show of openness and all that goes with the effort to sell themselves.

E: Meanwhile, in the Far East, a nation who believes they are being slighted and not given their just dues as a 'Great Power' props up a nasty neighbouring government, and needing a vast increase in natural resources, and knowing they can't take it from the north, starts looking south at various islands and nations as 'rightfully' theirs, regardless of what the locals say of the idea.

F: Once the Olympics are done, and reacting to the 'Locally Formed Uprising' and the 'Spontaneous Demands' of an ethnic minority in a neighbouring country, the stage a pretext to bite off a large chunk of it, all in the name of peace and fulfilling the wishes of the local oppressed majority of the region, and make it part of the greater nation.

G: World goes ape: they all demand that the country in question fly right, and get it together. They have a big meetings, and they all agree 'Something Should Be Done' if it happens again. Meanwhile, the county of evil-doers start making noises saying the rest of said country is being mean to a ethnic brothers and sisters, and we might have to do something about this, but don't worry, all those troops we have on the border, they are just there for some sunshine. Oh? And Country C? Don't get ideas about treating our co-ethnic people bad, I know you are allied with some pretty strong countries, but you know they don't really have your back, after all, what have they done for their other friends?


Now again, can only comparisons so far, but as this one goes, pretty darn scary. For in this case, we have the following:

A: Germany elected everyones favourite Bavarian Corporal, and Russia Elected Putin.

B: German Manufacturing took off, and Russia started selling gas and oil hand over fist.

C: Ruhr/Rhine from France, and Georgia lost a few provinces. Granted, at least Germany was in the right here.

D: Berlin 36, Sochi 14

E: Japan/Manchuria late 30's, China/North Korea Now.

F: Sudetenland, and now the Crimea.

G: Right now he is making serious noise about the rest of the Ukraine, at least the eastern parts, and western leadership - with two loud exceptions - are looking for a piece of paper to wave. The two exceptions? Poland and Germany: they both know how this movie worked out the last time, and don't care to watch the sequel. Also, Putin has been making noises about the Baltics, and here, they have allies: in fact, they are NATO members. So, to carry the comparison, they are taking the role of Poland in 39.

So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.

But thats my two cents.

[Targan]

Germany's actions post-1933 have some very interesting parallels with Russia's actions in this new millenia. Check out this excellent article by the Australian Broadcasting Commission: Hillary Clinton's comparison of Vladimir Putin and Adolf Hitler checks out

[stormlion1]

The only real route to get equipment is through Poland and everything would have to be trucked in. I can see the Russians moving in to cut Poland and the Ukraine off from each other using almost the same scenario. "Ethnic Russians" and threats of force because in the end the Russians can lay claim to the Ukraine as full of "Ethnic Russians" because they were part of the USSR only a few decades back. Sanctions do work, but there a long term effect and will not do anything that the Russians won't be able to work around. I honestly expect the Ukraine to be forced to rejoin the Russians new Empire within the decade. Poland is going to have to start worrying as well as NATO is a paper tiger at this point. Which is why they want the US to send its Tanks back now, even though we withdrew them last year from Europe as a whole. Can the EU hold off the Russians without the US?

[Webstral]

The West today is in a much better position than the Anglo-French were in 1938-9. Granted, the internal divisions and legislative paralysis being experienced by the US is uncomfortably similar to the French political situation during the run-up to the Battle of France. That much said, NATO is in a better position vis-à-vis Russia. I write this while trying to bear in mind that overconfidence kills.

Regardless of what happens in the Ukraine, NATO includes the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Russian military action against any of these states mandates action by the rest of NATO. Regardless of what one thinks of a particular Western leader, NATO obligations provide a clear-cut cover for military action up to and including full scale mobilization and war—even nuclear war. While I don’t have access to a psychological profile of Putin such that I could make a definitive statement about his willingness to test the commitment of the Western powers to NATO, I’m reasonably confident of the long term outcome of any conventional confrontation between NATO and Russia. (NATO v Russia simultaneously with a US-led alliance against China is a different story, if such a story is relevant to tell.)

I do think the tanks have to go back in. I would go so far as to say that the tanks have to be pushed forward to Poland and Romania. In fact, the whole NATO posture needs to be pushed eastwards at this point—if only to demonstrate that NATO means business about defending all NATO members from extralegal action by outside agents. I’m no more anxious for war than anyone else who has looked war in the eye as a rifleman. That much said, I’m perfectly aware that actions speak louder than words; combat units show a far greater commitment to one’s allies than economic sanctions. We want the Poles, the Balts, the Romanians, and the others to feel completely confident that we will go to the mat for them if that’s the way Russia wants to play. Putin may or may not be moved by the loss of revenues from alienating his European clients. He’s far more likely to be moved by the permanent stationing of a half dozen heavy divisions in Poland and another 2-3 in Romania. This number would be too small to invade Russia, but it would be enough to prevent any sudden and rash acts by Russia. This number is not insuperable when spread amongst the NATO allies.

None of this will be helpful to the Ukraine in the immediate future. I suppose some value might be derived from keeping Putin guessing about what is intended by the push eastward, but the short term effect might actually be to raise the temperature and bolster Putin’s domestic support. So be it. Politicians and diplomats dream of solutions that give them the theoretical maximum reward. Soldiers must be more pragmatic. Putin’s support in Russia can go through roof for all I care, so long as every time he looks at our allies he’s looking down a thicket of 120mm barrels.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Some things to keep in mind, the US does not do a lot of trade with Russia so it can't get a lot of leverage from that but... if the US does try to enforce sanctions against Russia, we all better get use to not having GPS, satellite comms, restricted weather forecasting and other things.

NASA is wholly reliant on Russia for the supply of engines for it's main launch vehicle, the Atlas V rocket. The RD-180 engine is considered by some to be the best of its type in the world due to a combination of low cost and good efficiency and it's supplied by NPO Energomash in Russia.
Kick Putin hard enough, he might just ban the sale of RD-180 engines.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

Some things to keep in mind, the US does not do a lot of trade with Russia so it can't get a lot of leverage from that but... if the US does try to enforce sanctions against Russia, we all better get use to not having GPS, satellite comms, restricted weather forecasting and other things.

NASA is wholly reliant on Russia for the supply of engines for it's main launch vehicle, the Atlas V rocket. The RD-180 engine is considered by some to be the best of its type in the world due to a combination of low cost and good efficiency and it's supplied by NPO Energomash in Russia.
Kick Putin hard enough, he might just ban the sale of RD-180 engines

Wikipedia had this to say on the U.S. use of the RD-180 engine:

During the early 1990s General Dynamics Space Systems Division (later purchased by Lockheed Martin) acquired the rights to use the RD-180 in the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) and the Atlas program. As these programs were conceived to support United States government launches as well as commercial launches, it was also arranged for the RD-180 to be co-produced by Pratt & Whitney. However all production to date has taken place in Russia. The engine is currently sold by a joint venture between the Russian developer and producer of the engine NPO Energomash and Pratt & Whitney, called RD AMROSS.

Jerry Grey, a consultant to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Universities Space Research Association and a former professor of aerospace engineering at Princeton University, suggested using the RD-180 for a prospective NASA heavy-lift launch vehicle. For those who might be concerned about too much reliance on Russia, he pointed out that RD Amross was "very close to producing a U.S.-built version of the RD-180, and with some infusion of NASA funding could be manufacturing that engine (and perhaps even a 1,700,000 lbf or 7.6 MN thrust equivalent of the RD-170) in a few years."[4]

Despite the availability of necessary documentation and legal rights for producing RD-180 in the United States, NASA is considering development of an indigenous core stage engine that would be "capable of generating high levels of thrust approximately equal to or exceeding the performance of the Russian-built engine." NASA considered in 2010 to produce a fully operational engine by 2020 or sooner, depending an partnership with the U.S. Defense Department.[5]


My guess is that whatever work they're doing on producing a replacement engine just got accelerated...

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Panther Al

So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.

But thats my two cents.

I like what they said in the movie "To Be or Not to Be" (odd how I keep quoting that movie):

"Poland...the doormat of Europe! If it's not the Russians, it's the Germans!"

[schnickelfritz]

Seeing the idea of moving heavy units back into Europe, I'm really interested as to how that would work.

My chief concern is that (speaking as a Liberal Libertarian), I sadly do not see the current administration having the wherewithal to focus on anything but its domestic agenda. That concerns me a lot.

I believe we would need to see, and perhaps Hagel can pull this off, a top to bottom analysis of what would need to be added or removed from the US Military's TO&E to make something like this happen. Fantasyland projects (lightweight HMG's anyone?) need to get the axe RIGHT NOW. The resources that could be there or are there need to be used to maximum effect. I don't see much additional $$$ coming, and indeed they were making loud noises about reducing the military just weeks...days before the Ukrainian deal kicked off.

I believe the phrase to be used is..."D'OH!!"

I've thought for years that the drawdown, with the deactivation of the 3rd AD, 5th, 8th, and 24th ID (M) were at best some form of sick joke...there are others, but those really hit home for me.

The last thing I would like to see is something kick off of any size over there and spread...there is no endgame there that isn't just terrible. I just don't see the USSR, er, the Russian Federation, having the manpower and equipment to be able to conduct a Red Storm Rising/T2K land campaign without having an Oh Sh!t moment and realizing they need nukes to forestall defeat. For me that is the terrifying part.

The semi- or completely obsolete hordes they were counting on to do most of the fighting for the Category 3-4 divisions (some Cat 2's as well), the T-55/T-62, BMP-1, and early BTR's are either rusted into uselessness, stripped of anything valuable by vandals (wiring in particular, but aluminum and brass too), so as to require massive resources and time to bring online.

That's beyond the fact that the modern NATO MBT's would cut them to pieces.

Let's not forget that their Pacte-era battle plans involved a lot of East German, Polish, and Czech troops dying for them.

With all that said, I would be very interested in hearing what others would think we'd need to make up the US component of a credible deterrent force.

I'm thinking the 3rd AD, 5th and 8th ID(M), and an ACR in Poland, with the 24th ID (M), an ACR, and some lighter units (Stryker Brigades?) and maybe an Air Assault/Airmobile Brigade in each country. I'm thinking that the lighter units would be more applicable to the mountains or Romania. Other nations could/should add to this, and we should get into the habit of NATO exercises with all of the members to improve morale and effectiveness in the former WP countries.

I also would push hard for the Germans to provide Leo 2A4's or better to the Poles. Even heavily upgraded T-72's just won't cut it. They need a MBT that will take what it gets and give it back like an M1/Leo2/Challenger/Leclerc.

I also think the US Army needs to address its most glaring weakness....mobile short range AA support. The Ukrainians have Tanguskas....it's the best I've seen, and we need to get some, analyze them, and develop a similar machine, probably based off the Bradley running gear. You will need to blast the Frogfoot, Fencer, and Mil-28/Ka-50 out of the sky and live to tell about it...repeatedly.

We also need to look at restarting the Ground Combat Vehicle program, even scale it back until what we produce is a better form of the current M2A2/3. Better hull shape, a couple more men, the 30 or 35mm Bushmaster...

I could ramble on more, but I'd need beer and the stomach acid won't deal with that tonight. Sucks getting old...

My $0.10...
Dave

[Panther Al]

Originally Posted by schnickelfritz

We also need to look at restarting the Ground Combat Vehicle program, even scale it back until what we produce is a better form of the current M2A2/3. Better hull shape, a couple more men, the 30 or 35mm Bushmaster...

I could ramble on more, but I'd need beer and the stomach acid won't deal with that tonight. Sucks getting old...

My $0.10...
Dave

*cough* CV9030 or CV9035 *cough*

[schnickelfritz]

"blah blah blah...not invented here...blah blah blah"

Yeah, I bet we'd hear that tired line again.

Dave

[stormlion1]

Anyone know if the Russians are still producing tanks of any type? I know the US hasn't produced an Abrams since the late 80's. Could the Russians do a blitz for the Atlantic before the US could respond with reinforcements from the Continental United States? Because that's where all the heavy gear is now. Could they interdict the Middle East and stop Oil flow? It would be a fight if nothing else.
Honestly I don't think the current administration has the guts to deal with the problem, they just don't. They won't increase the military budgets or send gear back to Europe unless war were declared and even then they would do everything in there power to make it a EU game. They cancelled the replacement for the shuttles knowing that the only option was to rent space on Russian missions. Even worse is the fact that the shuttles weren't mothballed for later use but stripped of essential systems and parceled out to museums. They couldn't be restored for love or money at this point, and they probably sold the excess parts like they sold the support equipment for the Shuttle Program for a quick buck. A damn shame getting rid of a system without a replacement.