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Originally Posted by Webstral
There's a certain parallel between events in Eastern Europe and the events leading up to Hitler's invasion of Poland. However, the parallel breaks down a bit once one compares a German invasion of Poland with a Russian invasion of, say, Estonia. While Great Britain and France guaranteed Poland's security, the means to do so was not in place. It was genuine bluff. The Brits and French had no means to intervene in Poland. They would have had to invade Germany. The leadership in these countries had no stomach for a fight. Conservative Americans, on the other hand, would love to be let off the leash. Since Estonia is now a NATO member, an attack on Estonia would be an attack on every member of the alliance. It wouldn't be a question just of Russian tanks versus American tanks but of Russian tanks versus American, British, German, Dutch, Belgian, and possibly even French tanks. (Mon Dieu!) There wouldn't have to be a debate. Treaty obligations would simply kick in.
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Right, but here's the thing, NATO hasn't adequately prepared to defend the Baltics. Setting aside whether NATO would react en toto and in force, they're not really well prepared to do logistically and organizationally. There've only been a handful of joint manouvers, usually involving nothing larger than a brigade two, and there are no significant NATO units permanently based there. We're not talking Cold War West Germany any more. Estonia doesn't have any MBTs or combat aircraft of its own. Without a significant NATO presence there- boots on the ground- the Baltic states are extremely vulnerable. Russia could grab Estonia, for example, before NATO could get sufficient ground forces- we're talking heavy brigades which need significant lift resources to move long distances en masse- to stymie and/or dislodge Russian ground forces. Russian aircraft and submarines could interdict NATO sealifts by laying mines in the Gulf of Riga. This would likely begin before the shooting even started. Ground MSRs could be interdicted by sabotage or other means. Russia could warn Lithuania and Latvia that if they allow transit of NATO formations, that they will be next.
So, in the case of a Russian invasion of Estonia, NATO would be heavily dependent on air power to stop/eject the aggressor. NATO has more advanced combat aircraft than Russia, but the qualitative gap is starting to shrink. Russia has an impressive array of anti-aircraft weaponry. Last generation Russian SAMs have shot down American stealth aircraft before- it's not unthinkable that it could happen again with current generation hardware. To think that B-2s and F-22s are invulnerable is a mistake. The circumstances are not clear, but several Raptors have been "shot down" during excercises, in one case by a Qatari Mirage 2000. And we all know that aircraft can not take and hold territory.
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Originally Posted by Webstral
Now if the question becomes whether or not the various members of NATO would balk at honoring their treaty commitments... There's a horse of a different color. I honestly have no idea how that one would play out without an hypothesis that was two parts prejudice and three parts guesswork. I suspect there would be some pacifist sentiment in every NATO country, along with some hawkish sentiment. The balance would vary from country to country. Without having a compelling reason to think otherwise, though, I have to believe that member nations of NATO would honor their commitment under the Treaty or suffer real blowback from the other members. The United States would have to honor the terms of NATO or lose all credibility in every alliance. Once the US was on board, the UK would follow suit if not march in time with the US. After that, every other member would have to consult their consciences and self interest, bearing in mind that a spiteful Washington might consider all existing arrangements of every sort with NATO members refusing to honor their obligations up for renegotiation. If Germany and France both decided to sit out, then others might follow. If either pitched in, the other would feel obliged to follow suit.
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Look at the lukewarm public support in Europe for stronger economic sanctions. Condemnation, even, hasn't been universal. Current NATO member Hungary, for example, has shown sympathy- support, even- for Russia's actions in Crimea and Ukraine. Only three or four NATO member nations meet the defense spending requirements called for in the treaty. I hope that I am wrong, but I don't think that NATO unity is a given. Will all NATO member nations willingly contribute their military forces to defend the Baltic States? Once again, I really hope so. Given the uneven, lukewarm response to Russia's aggression and violations of international law over the past two years, I'm not so sure.
I think that we need to accept that the NATO of 2014 is not the same as the NATO of 1987. Yes, it's larger and more inclusive, but is it as well organized, coordinated, and prepared militarily to fight a conventional war in Europe? I don't think so.