Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
The one major downside to large scale manouvers in the Baltics is that the Russians may see them as deliberate provocations, prompted Moscow to launch its own large scale manouvers on the other side of the border. This could provide a convenient cover for assembling an actual invasion force. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario.
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Not buying that. Large scale maneuvers in the Baltic states would send the Russians a message they would very well understand - "we can do this, and we will if we have to/want to." Just as the large-scale maneuvers in West Germany in the 80s did not provoke a Soviet invasion.
And just as the message was clear in the Ukraine what Russia meant this past Spring and Summer when it held maneuvers on it's side of the border with eastern Ukraine.
Putin may decide in his political calculus to attack, but it would not be a snap decision proviked by NATO maneuvers