Quote:
Originally Posted by unkated
Putin may decide in his political calculus to attack, but it would not be a snap decision proviked by NATO maneuvers
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I didn't say that it would be. He would, however, see it as a threat/provocation. If he's looking for a
casus belli, that could give it to him. It doesn't mean he'd act immediately, though. He could launch an invasion months after the NATO troops left and claim that it was a preemptive act of self defense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by unkated
Not buying that. Large scale maneuvers in the Baltic states would send the Russians a message they would very well understand - "we can do this, and we will if we have to/want to." Just as the large-scale maneuvers in West Germany in the 80s did not provoke a Soviet invasion.
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That's fine. I don't think that you are looking at it from the Russian POV, though. To anticipate what the Russians might do, one has to think like them. To the Russians, NATO members on Russia's borders constitute an existential (from a regime point of view) threat. Putin wants buffer states, like the USSR had after WWII. "The Great Patriotic War" created deep scars in Russia's psyche. For example, what the West sees as Russian aggression in Ukraine, Russians see as self-preservation. IF there's to be war between Russia and the West, cultural misunderstanding will be at its root.
Your analogy is an apples to oranges comparison. West Germany didn't border the Soviet Union directly. East Germany, Poland, and the non-Russian, non-independent republics of Belarus & Ukraine stood between them. The Baltic States do border Russia. Large scale military maneuvers in the Baltic States will be seen as very threatening. Imagine if Russia or China held large scale military maneuvers in Mexico. Would POTUS, the DoD, and Congress be cool with that?