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Originally Posted by Benjamin
While a reunified Germany would scare the Soviet Union, there are numerous reasons to believe an acceptable solution could be worked out.
In real life the Soviets allowed the Germany's to reunite and NATO to expand. They weren't happy with it but it wasn't worth risking nuclear war to prevent. The Soviet leadership knows that both the war in China and in Europe are going very poorly. Making a deal with NATO so as to concentrate on China could be seen as a good option.
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In real life the German Army didn't secretly plot German Reunification, hadn't taken control of Germany and occupied half of Poland.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin
I can see the Soviet Union (and France) demanding some concessions.
1) Germany can reunify and remain in NATO but it's current borders must be retained and further "reunification" renounced.
2) Germany shall at no time acquire nuclear weapons.
3) No German troops shall remain in Poland for an extended period of time.
4) US, British and Canadian forces can remain in Western Poland so long as Soviet troops remain in Eastern Poland. A withdrawal of Soviet forces must be met by a withdrawal of NATO forces.
5) When all foreign forces withdraw from Poland, Poland will be allowed to rearm but will remain a neutral state outside of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Benjamin
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NATO lost half of its membership over the issue of German Reunification in 1996. France (not in NATO but a member of the Atlantic Alliance) pulled out all of its garrison forces from West Germany after German Reunification and started a new power bloc with Belgium known as the Franco-Belgium Union.
1) Germany has already unified and has pushed all Soviet forces out of Germany and has invaded Poland. No remaining NATO member objected, in fact they all encouraged it.
2) Who will stop it? The Germans paid no regard to NATO during German Reunification and they have the technology to develop nuclear weapons by themselves.
3) Who will make them leave former German territories if they don't want to?
4) NATO is backing the pro-NATO Free Polish Congress so they are staying in Western Poland to reclaim Poland from communism
5) I just don't see this working now that Germany has reunified. It worked to a point with Austria and Finland after the Second World War, but Austria and Finland were always pro-western and their neutrality didn't mean much when the Twilight War started. NATO I think was the first to invade Finland, and Austria was invaded by Italy and then the Soviets. A weak Poland sandwiched between a nationalist military controlled Germany and Russia and occupying former German territory is just too tempting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin
Given what occurred in OTL I'm unclear as to why the Twilight:2000 Soviet Union would become so reluctant to find a negotiated way out of a losing situation. The Germany of 1996 was not the Germany of 1941. Benjamin
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It seem the logical thing to do but do the Soviet trust the Germans?
Germany in 1996 is not the Germany of 1941 but the geopolitical situation (in central Europe) is similar. Also the Germans have rearmed, have successfully pushed the Soviets out of Germany and Western Poland and are backed by the armed forces and the resources of America, Britain and the other remaining NATO powers. The Soviet are not capable of defeating the German Army in Europe (excluding using nuclear weapons) now that it is backed by America. The German economy is also controlled by the military, its factories are churning out weapons and there is little the Soviets can do about it and I would be almost certain that Germany has since 1996 also accelerated its nuclear weapons programme. Unless the Soviets are prepared to use nuclear weapons against NATO which is what they did in twilight 2000 then the Germans are holding all the cards.