NATO chooses discretion

[Benjamin]

While a reunified Germany would scare the Soviet Union, there are numerous reasons to believe an acceptable solution could be worked out.

In real life the Soviets allowed the Germany's to reunite and NATO to expand. They weren't happy with it but it wasn't worth risking nuclear war to prevent. The Soviet leadership knows that both the war in China and in Europe are going very poorly. Making a deal with NATO so as to concentrate on China could be seen as a good option.

I can see the Soviet Union (and France) demanding some concessions.

1) Germany can reunify and remain in NATO but it's current borders must be retained and further "reunification" renounced.

2) Germany shall at no time acquire nuclear weapons.

3) No German troops shall remain in Poland for an extended period of time.

4) US, British and Canadian forces can remain in Western Poland so long as Soviet troops remain in Eastern Poland. A withdrawal of Soviet forces must be met by a withdrawal of NATO forces.

5) When all foreign forces withdraw from Poland, Poland will be allowed to rearm but will remain a neutral state outside of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

Given what occurred in OTL I'm unclear as to why the Twilight:2000 Soviet Union would become so reluctant to find a negotiated way out of a losing situation. The Germany of 1996 was not the Germany of 1941.

Benjamin

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

While a reunified Germany would scare the Soviet Union, there are numerous reasons to believe an acceptable solution could be worked out.

In real life the Soviets allowed the Germany's to reunite and NATO to expand. They weren't happy with it but it wasn't worth risking nuclear war to prevent. The Soviet leadership knows that both the war in China and in Europe are going very poorly. Making a deal with NATO so as to concentrate on China could be seen as a good option.

In real life the German Army didn't secretly plot German Reunification, hadn't taken control of Germany and occupied half of Poland.

Originally Posted by Benjamin

I can see the Soviet Union (and France) demanding some concessions.

1) Germany can reunify and remain in NATO but it's current borders must be retained and further "reunification" renounced.

2) Germany shall at no time acquire nuclear weapons.

3) No German troops shall remain in Poland for an extended period of time.

4) US, British and Canadian forces can remain in Western Poland so long as Soviet troops remain in Eastern Poland. A withdrawal of Soviet forces must be met by a withdrawal of NATO forces.

5) When all foreign forces withdraw from Poland, Poland will be allowed to rearm but will remain a neutral state outside of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Benjamin

NATO lost half of its membership over the issue of German Reunification in 1996. France (not in NATO but a member of the Atlantic Alliance) pulled out all of its garrison forces from West Germany after German Reunification and started a new power bloc with Belgium known as the Franco-Belgium Union.

1) Germany has already unified and has pushed all Soviet forces out of Germany and has invaded Poland. No remaining NATO member objected, in fact they all encouraged it.

2) Who will stop it? The Germans paid no regard to NATO during German Reunification and they have the technology to develop nuclear weapons by themselves.

3) Who will make them leave former German territories if they don't want to?

4) NATO is backing the pro-NATO Free Polish Congress so they are staying in Western Poland to reclaim Poland from communism

5) I just don't see this working now that Germany has reunified. It worked to a point with Austria and Finland after the Second World War, but Austria and Finland were always pro-western and their neutrality didn't mean much when the Twilight War started. NATO I think was the first to invade Finland, and Austria was invaded by Italy and then the Soviets. A weak Poland sandwiched between a nationalist military controlled Germany and Russia and occupying former German territory is just too tempting.

Originally Posted by Benjamin

Given what occurred in OTL I'm unclear as to why the Twilight:2000 Soviet Union would become so reluctant to find a negotiated way out of a losing situation. The Germany of 1996 was not the Germany of 1941. Benjamin

It seem the logical thing to do but do the Soviet trust the Germans?

Germany in 1996 is not the Germany of 1941 but the geopolitical situation (in central Europe) is similar. Also the Germans have rearmed, have successfully pushed the Soviets out of Germany and Western Poland and are backed by the armed forces and the resources of America, Britain and the other remaining NATO powers. The Soviet are not capable of defeating the German Army in Europe (excluding using nuclear weapons) now that it is backed by America. The German economy is also controlled by the military, its factories are churning out weapons and there is little the Soviets can do about it and I would be almost certain that Germany has since 1996 also accelerated its nuclear weapons programme. Unless the Soviets are prepared to use nuclear weapons against NATO which is what they did in twilight 2000 then the Germans are holding all the cards.

[LoneCollector1987]

Originally Posted by RN7

2) Who will stop it? The Germans paid no regard to NATO during German Reunification and they have the technology to develop nuclear weapons by themselves.
3) Who will make them leave former German territories if they don't want to?

May I play Advocatus diaboli?

In the T2k timeline Germany has the possibility of using the allied arguments against them. In real life with the 2+4 treaty these arguments are no longer valid.

I refer to
1) Berlin Declaration of 1945
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Declaration_(1945)

and
2) Atlantic Charter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Charter

According to the first, Germany continues to exist within the borders of December 31st, 1937.
And according to 2) borders may change not be force.

The eight principal points of the Charter were:
2) territorial adjustments must be in accord with the wishes of the peoples concerned;
3) all people had a right to self-determination;

And expelling people is against the Hague Conventions of 1907. And I believe that the Germans of the Eastern territories (East-Prussia, Silesia etc) 1945 would never vote for becoming citizens of Russia or Poland.

So IF we accept that the Germans are willing to go to war over 7 ethnic Germans from Silesia (what the real Germany of our timeline would never do or even think about it) than we could say that the Germans of the T2k timeline would use the Declaration, the Charter and the Convention to claim that they are just restoring the borders to the rightful "status quo ante bellum".


Nearly OT but important!
We have a difference between the english and the german wikipedia regarding the Berlin Declaration. In the fine print but nevertheless.

English:
"The preamble of the declaration confirmed...the continued subsequent existence of a German national territory ...taken to be as defined on 31 December 1937, although subject to the four signatory powers ...authority that would shortly be exercised in the incorporation of eastern territories into Poland and the Soviet Union."

German:
"Eine Annexion war damit ausdrücklich nicht verbunden, die Entscheidung über die Grenzen ...Deutschlands oder eines Teil Deutschlands wurde für einen späteren Zeitpunkt angekündigt."
and
"und die „deutschen Grenzen nach dem Stande vom 31. Dezember 1937“ fortbestanden"

Rough translation: Germany was not subject to annexation, a decision about the borders ...for Germany and parts of Germany was postponed to a later date"
and
"the german borders continue to exist according to the date of December 31st, 1937."

[RN7]

And the post-war West German government also adhered to the Hallstein Doctrine until 1972 in regards to the legality of East Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hallstein_Doctrine

And unlike the democratically elected and liberal West German government the German Army was nationalist. They were not Nazi's but they were strongly German nationalist.

Originally Posted by LoneCollector1987

So IF we accept that the Germans are willing to go to war over 7 ethnic Germans from Silesia (what the real Germany of our timeline would never do or even think about it) than we could say that the Germans of the T2k timeline would use the Declaration, the Charter and the Convention to claim that they are just restoring the borders to the rightful "status quo ante bellum".

Probably more than 7. According to Polish sources as many as one million former German citizens were granted Polish citizenship by 1950. How many were actually Germans, or Germans pretending to be Poles is unclear. In 2002 over 150,000 Poles declared German ethnicity over ten years after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. How many ethnic Germans actually lived in Poland before they were forbidden from travelling to Germany and the rest of Western Europe was undoubtedly far higher.

[Benjamin]

OK. The situation is different in T2K. I was looking for a longer conventional war scenario to game using NATO: The Next War in Europe.

Maybe I'll go with a Red Storm Rising or The War That Never Was scenario but continue it through the NATO counter offensive into Poland. The Naval War Game papers are pretty good for this kind of research.

I still think as rational actors the Soviet leadership could have convinced not to use nukes.

Another note regarding Germany. Much of the German populace sees a difference between the idea of "unification", bringing West and East Germany back together and the concept of "reunification", which to them is a restoration of the German nation to the 1937 borders. They aren't demanding border changes or anything like that, but they see a real difference in the terms that many foreigners (except the Poles) overlook.

Benjamin

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Benjamin

OK. The situation is different in T2K. I was looking for a longer conventional war scenario to game using NATO: The Next War in Europe.

Maybe I'll go with a Red Storm Rising or The War That Never Was scenario but continue it through the NATO counter offensive into Poland. The Naval War Game papers are pretty good for this kind of research.

I still think as rational actors the Soviet leadership could have convinced not to use nukes.

Another note regarding Germany. Much of the German populace sees a difference between the idea of "unification", bringing West and East Germany back together and the concept of "reunification", which to them is a restoration of the German nation to the 1937 borders. They aren't demanding border changes or anything like that, but they see a real difference in the terms that many foreigners (except the Poles) overlook.

Benjamin

Go with the concept of a "proxy war" or regional conflict. None of the major powers want an escalation but everyone wants a favorable outcome. Because it is a "proxy war," the level of equipment will be limited (and possibly "last generation") and the players (who could be vetted Mercs or "Local Militia") would have greater autonomy. I would look at the "war" in The Ukraine or the UN-supported "operation" by Uganda and Kenya to purge Al Qaeda rebels from the African Union Regions (with fighting in southern Somalia, Uganda, The Central African Republic and Kenya) as inspiration.