Quote:
Originally Posted by madmikechoi
Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).
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Taiwan was an existential threat to the PRC during the Cold War when Taiwan was protected by the U.S. and had no hope of ever successfully invading the mainland due to being massively outnumbered by the PRC. Also a militant Taiwan would also have been restrained from invading mainland China by the U.S. and Soviet Union.
Now that mainland China is being invaded by the Soviet Union and the PRC has their backs to the wall the issue of the existence of Taiwan would be of little real consequence to the desperate PRC. It is possible that Taiwan could take advantage of this and ally itself with the Soviets for some territorial gains after the Soviets wipe out the PRC. But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.
Firstly they are both Chinese states and blood and language runs thicker than politics particularly when China is being invaded by a long term foe such as the Russians.
Secondly Kuomintang Taiwan has always despised communism and the prime communist state of the Soviet Union. They after all fought a vicious civil war with the Communist Chinese for decades on the mainland and ended up exiled on Formosa because of it.
Thirdly the Kuomintang have been allied with the U.S. since the Second World War and owe their survival to being under American protection. If America was not protecting Taiwan does anyone think it really would not be an offshore province of Communist China by now or in 1995.
Fourthly no Taiwanese government in its right mind would trust the Soviets to give them territory given their record. They have just launched a major and unprovoked invasion of the PRC which is a communist state. What guarantee is there that the Soviets would not renege on their promise and just invade Taiwan, especially after it broke its close links with the U.S.